Vladimir Putin is a name that is the focus of geo-political analysts, journalists, statesmen and politicians across the world. He is a man that has changed the face of geo-politics with his hard decision-making. Many would call him an autocrat and an authoritarian but he has made a name for himself and has not allowed other nations, especially Western countries to subvert his nation. Europe is terrorized by him. The US vilifies him. He is known as the Man of Iron and he is the one calling the shots in the present-day Ukraine conflict. It is Putin who has made it clear that although the glory of Soviet Union is no more, Russia is still a power player in the region. In November, 2022 Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif referred to Russia as a “superpower” and Putin as a “man of his word”. Putin’s Ukraine war is having a profound impact on the world. It is a historical crisis initiated by Putin and it could turn out to be the greatest conflict in human history.
The attack on Ukraine was launched under the leadership of Putin in February, 2022. Up till now around 13,000 people have died in the conflict including around 5000 civilians and a staggering 7.6 million people have become refugees as a result of the crisis. Numbers are expected to rise in the coming months. Ukraine’s grain production feeds around 400 Million people across the globe but as a result of this war, that grain supply is affected. The calculation of losses coming from this war are incalculable and with no end in sight, this war has the potential to plunge the whole world into a recession.
As a result of this war, Europe has repositioned itself. Poland is at high risk of an attack from Russia. Multiple missiles have already landed in Polish cities. The Ukraine War has strengthened Europeans to looks towards each other as allies. Europeans have lived under the umbrella of American protection but the Ukraine crisis has exposed that claim. The Americans are in no position to initiate a direct conflict with Russia with active threats of Nuclear War hurled from Putin. The Europeans are regrouping and there is re-alignment of resources. The focus is back on fighting conventional warfare and supporting Ukraine as a red line and bastion against Russian attack. The NATO alliance is faltering. There is limited support on the ground. Ukrainian soldiers suffered heavy losses from the start of this war. It is only through their own sacrifices and strategic support from the Americans that they have managed to expel Russian forces from many areas. Coupled with sanctions from all corners have been slammed on the Russian economy, the international assets of Russian companies have been seized and the Russian economy is spiraling down. But there are a few tricks with Putin that can turn the tables.
Putin knew from the start that Europe is highly reliant on gas and fuel supplies from Russia and is now using this as a tool of war. As winter approaches and the prices of fuel are not stabilizing, European countries will see their economies slowing down and even electricity supply will shut down in many European countries due to shortage of Gas. This is having a two-fold effect. One, Europeans are putting all their resources towards utilizing Green technologies and are moving away from consumption of Russian Gas. In the long run, this will over-turn the situation of Gas and fuel prices around the world. On the other hand, Russia having excess Gas supplies is moving towards finding new markets such as India, China and even Pakistan. This shift and change in demand and supply is being termed by Russians as the economic war of “West versus the Rest”. Already, many Central Asian States are expanding their Gas pipeline supplies to connecting countries. Pakistan is also on the list of countries where bilateral ties are being enhanced. India and China have openly opted to buy from Russia which will keep the Russian economy afloat. It seems that countries are not relying on U.S alone and keeping their options open in the face of conflict.
China is the true key player in the conflict. Beijing has carefully opted to stay neutral in the conflict but it is continuing with its policy of economic engagement, progress and connectivity. Putin is now using his fuel exports as a weapon against the West and capitalizing on Asian markets including India, China, Central Asia, even Afghanistan and Pakistan. Russia is still the largest country of the world in terms of area being part of Eastern Europe as well as Asia. Diversification of its market will allow it to counter the impact of sanctions imposed by the collaboration of Western nations. India is a global partner of the U.S, especially against China, but this did not deter Narendra Modi to purchase vital imports from Russia. India also happens to be the top buyer of Russian armaments of war.
Putin’s War in Ukraine is a grave matter that concerns all humanity. As a result, many developing countries around the world are moving into deep recessions. European budgets are being diverted to defense. United Nations humanitarian efforts in Africa, Middle East, Yemen and Palestine are being diverted towards Ukraine and Europe. Food prices are on a rise and fuel is making a multiplier input-push inflation. Putin’s War in Ukraine is not sustainable but it is a fact that Russia was pushed into this war by Western nations by the actions of NATO. Putin means business and he will not allow his backyard nation to become a reservoir of Western forces and military bases. Although, the humanitarian cost of this war is high and it is highly undesirable from all perspectives, but this is a war of nationalist interests among nations, and not an invasion as it is being portrayed in the International media and diplomatic forums.
Russian forces have suffered setbacks due to supply of Western arms to the Ukrainian army. Russians have replied by bombarding Ukrainian power centers cutting off energy. Further, Putin has warned that if any foreign forces intervene between Ukraine and Russia, it will be dealt with a nuclear response. And this warning has not been taken lightly. Putin’s war has no end in sight and with new alliances being formed, it can easily spill into a nuclear war or a war of nations that forced to get involved. It is no longer a world governed by the Western hegemonies and the U.S is not in a unipolar position. The War in Syria proved that Russian involvement can turn the tide in any war. Chinese and Iranian ties with the Russians further complicates the matter. It seems that Putin has started a chain reaction of events, and each development is more complicated that than the previous one. Putin has been in charge of Russia since 2012 but this war could be his greatest mistake or his greatest achievement ever.
