It is rightly said that Bengalis have a tipping point of endurance, especially when it comes to deviation from democratic norms, and beyond that they take a call. That is exactly what Bangladesh experienced as their craving for genuine representation was trampled for 15 years by the Awami League rule under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid. They tolerated for long even after having their verdict robbed, pushed to the wall and maneuvered, but went over the brink as the first shot was fired on the civilians. The irony was that Sheikh Hasina was herself a democrat by all means but was found to be on the wrong side of representative conventions. The rest is history.
It would be relevant to draw an analogy from a saying of founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, who told BBC’s David Frost in 1972 “…my greatest strength is the love for my people, my greatest weakness is that I love them too much.” A true democrat, as he was, his charisma was shattered by none other than his own daughter who refused to see from the prism of pluralism, and took the intelligentsia of Bengal for a ride by turning more and more autocratic day by day.
That has now come to a crumbling halt as she now sits in asylum, and has nothing much to do but repent and regret for her follies. Bangladesh has moved on. A Second Revolution has dawned, and it is purely political in essence. The uprising was peerless and was led by students, commoners and all those who believed in the civilizational richness of Bengali history, and cherished it to the core that ballot is sacrosanct, and the way to go. They refused to accept the tyranny of bullets once again in their five decades of freedom, and have rewritten history. The traces of 1971 Independence are up for a toss, and it was painful to see the portraits of founding fathers ransacked in consulates, and statutes pulled down at thoroughfares by agitated mobs. They were apparently up in arms against the stigma of ‘controlled democracy’ that Prime Minister Hasina Sheikh had installed and were not content with ruffling feathers with the military too.
The uprising and ushering in of a broad-based technocrat civil dispensation with who’s who of the country in the cabinet has rekindled hopes for a better and secure tomorrow. The good point is that the armed forces took a backseat, and initial meddling by few Generals was genuinely obstructed with peoples’ power – a feature and feast unique in Bangladeshi current history. Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, as caretaker leader, has set a minimum agenda of running the country as per law after necessary auto-correction, and endeavours to take the nation to polls. The people, nonetheless, this time around are keeping an eye on all executive decisions, and are quite sensitive to it. Another first of its kind, and a departure from the temptation to rule till infinity, as is the norm with many South Asian societies.
An important aspect is the change of heart in foreign policy. Bangladesh, which under Awami League was considered to be too close to New Delhi, is now distancing itself and has vowed for an open-ended interaction with all of its neighbours. Pakistan, luckily, is one of the prime beneficiaries as the domestic revulsion has stirred new denominators of cooperation, and the people are now warmly exhibiting their cordiality with their one’s lost-love! That tantamount to a reset in relations and is an opportunity to leap forward. Hasina’s ouster, nonetheless, has opened the floodgates of strategic realignment in the region and be yond. Pakistan has an opportunity and it must walk gracefully in redressing grievances that Bengalis as a political polity hold with it to this day as a backlash of the 1971 truncation. A public apology from the State of Pakistan is due in all solemnity, and the earlier it is tendered in statesmanship, the better. Both the nations are eager to bury the hatchet and look forward.
The last six months of proactivity in relations is quite promising. Dhaka has eased visa regulations for Pakistanis, and there is a profound sense of understanding to trade and interact with Islamabad. The interest that two private airlines, Fly Jinnah and Air Sial, have evinced in flying to Dhaka and Chittagong – apart from national flagships, is a landmark development, and must come to broaden the cobweb of commercial aviation.
It is a pity that Pakistan is less-connected with its neighbours be they India, Afghanistan, Central Asia or Bangladesh. As Pakistan sits at the crossroads of BRI and CPEC, it is irrational to think of severed connectivity in terms of free flow of men and material across the borders. Pakistan currently has a trade surplus with Bangladesh as its exports stand at nearly $600 million. That is in need of being enhanced as there is immense potential to tap new avenues. Pineapple, textiles, tea chemicals, light machinery, grains and inorganic substances are an endless list of opportunities. Health tourism is one such category that has immense potential. While India used to be a major destination for medical succour, Pakistan can pitch itself convincingly as a better alternative as it has enough expertise in surgery and Medicare. Likewise, reviving the Chittagong-Karachi connection and buoying maritime relations between the two countries should be a priority. The blessing in disguise is that trade and commerce bodies in Pakistan have an eye on Bangladesh, as they see it as a convenient outlet for their mass commercialization to ASEAN and beyond. Holding trade fairs in both countries and enabling entrepreneurs and start-ups to freely intermingle for mass commerce is the way to go. Bangladesh’s distancing from India, as is the case presently, however, should not be read in isolation, and there are no reasons to celebrate it. The commonality of interests between the two neighbours, who share rivers and ethnicity across the divide, were at the beck and call of each other for decades. Their trade proximity is deep-rooted and have a lot more to share in the realms of cultural, social, literary and linguistic norms. What has acted as a monkey-wrench is the hegemonic attitude of Delhi over Dhaka for the last two decades, especially under Hasina who reportedly shared the notes of her decision-making with sleuths from the South Block. That is no more acceptable to Bangladeshis as they are more conscious now of their sovereign right to decide their destiny. Perhaps, that is why Hasina’s extradition is being sought to make her stand trial for her omissions and commissions.
Last but not least of geopolitical outcome of August 5, 2024, Second Liberation is the rise of Trifecta, i.e. an emerging nexus between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. At the same time, Dhaka will be in sight of reorienting its relations with the United States and indulge in some tightrope walking as it deals with Beijing and Washington. With suspension of traditional aid becoming a policy riddle under President Donald Trump, an assertive China in terms of multi-billion dollar BRI investment stands to fill the gap. China could be the new ‘El Dorado’ of Bangladesh. Bangladesh-China realignment, as it seems to be an indispensable outcome, will also raise alarm bells in India in terms of defence and security cooperation. With Maldives and Sri Lanka already having their tilt towards China in terms of trade and investment apart from defence procurement, and Pakistan already being a strategic-ally of Beijing, Dhaka will be a tumultuous realpolitik icing on the cake.
That could give a new dimension to Sino-US power competition in the region, compelling Washington to lean more towards New Delhi to pop it as a strategic bulwark. The stakes are evenly poised till Bangladesh goes to poll and elects a dispensation that will legitimize the Second Liberation and recraft a new lookout for it. Given to understand the DNA of Bengalis, a transparent ballot will determine to what extent the New Order shall stay in vogue.
