A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was achieved after 470 days of relentless bombardment on Sunday, 19 January 2025.
Netanyahu’s hand was forced by POTUS Trump, who is unsure about the ceasefire holding out but has said on 22 January: “It is not our war, it is their war.” This statement is of paramount importance because US weaponry supplied at zero cost to Israel, sustained the fifteen-month long genocide. France was selling weapons to Israel but it refused to do so some months ago. The UK parliament has made demands of a military embargo and then some. Germany and Serbia are selling weapons to Israel, and Germany is giving unconditional support at all levels.
However, now Israel lacks the funds to buy weaponry as their economy has taken a massive hit. After one non-stellar presidency, POTUS Trump returned to office in a world that has changed drastically in the four years since.
Covid and the resulting exponential rise of social media has been a game changer. There is a paradigm shift in public opinion and conversations around Israel. The genocidal state is no longer seen as the victim of terrorism, a narrative the Israeli lobby-controlled media had carefully spun.
Israel is now globally viewed as a recalcitrant bully, on a merciless genocidal campaign. The Israeli invasion of Gaza is the world’s first live streamed genocide. Israel’s assault on Gaza has been the center of news and social media is abuzz with: The power and machinations of the Israeli lobby in the US; Israeli soldiers gleefully sharing their war crimes on TikTok; the mass slaughter and tremendous suffering of innocent Palestinians; and American and other diaspora Jews condemning the genocidal apartheid state.
Social media is rife with discussions about US officials with Israeli passports and loyalty to Israel. Congressional hearings are routinely interrupted by mostly Jewish protests against the Palestinian genocide. Hillary Clinton was heckled at a college campus, the State Department spokesman and the Secretary of State found themselves heckled in public. Such heckling was broadcasted to the world through social media. Most importantly, American corporations — which are a symbol of American economic strength — are being boycotted.
McDonalds, Procter & Gamble, Disney, Pepsi Cola, Starbucks, KFC and many more are American brands that became global household names but are now being boycotted for supporting the genocide. Under pressure from the Israel lobby, the Chinese social media site Tik Tok was banned in the US, as Israeli soldiers were showcasing their war crimes on it. Such an act is contrary to the American spirit of enterprise.
Trump is not a product of the American political system. He is a success story of US capitalism and he will do everything to support it. Trump understood that the US was setting itself ablaze to keep Israel warm. Trump also realized that the piling US debt of $36 trillion and a tanking economy is mainly owed to the Israeli wars fought by the US. Trump hence called for a ceasefire, termed the Israeli genocide as “their” war and has lifted the ban on Tik Tok, to enable its sale which he estimated to value one trillion USD. Zionist Jewish billionaires who fund election campaigns, constitute the Israel lobby in the US. They are the lifeline of Israel, as they go out of their way to ensure that Israel is supported, protected and promoted at all levels of US society and state. Trump’s chief financier is the richest Israeli alive, the billionaire Miriam Adelson, who donated USD 100 million to Trump’s campaign. Adelson is a die-hard Israel-supporter.
It could very well be that POTUS Trump and his pro-Israel associates are providing a lifeline to Israel, by diverting all attention away from the genocide, to the three-phase ceasefire. They are saving Israel from itself. Israel has many critics among American Jewry and their numbers have risen considerably. These include academics, social workers, media figures, political commentators on social media, various working professionals and common citizens. A vast majority of young Jews under 40 oppose the genocidal settler colonial apartheid state. These Jews are now very vocal, especially on social media and they lodged anti-war protests in great numbers.
Losing Jewish American support is a big loss for Israel because the knee jerk defence of Zionists of any criticism of Israel is to term it as anti-Semitism. While this label has even been applied to American Jews, a divided diaspora community weakens the Israeli cause. The xenophobic and genocidal Israeli society however, lauds the Palestinian slaughter. The reasoning lies in the Jewish psyche. Jews have historically been persecuted by all nations across the globe. They have only had two benefactors in their history, namely ancient Persia and the world of Islam after Muhammad (PBUH). The Zionist narrative however, negates this fact through revisionist history.
Jews carry the burden of 5,000 years of Jewish suffering. Nazi concentration camps and the holocaust were both the epitome and the culmination of that suffering. Generational trauma is embedded in the Jewish psyche. Israel is more than just a homeland for world Jewry. Jews carry a deep-seated insecurity which compels them to support Israel as a safe haven, where they can flee, if their country of citizenship begins persecuting the Jews. Israel as a Jewish state is a guarantee of continued Jewish existence, safety and progress.
The Jews publicly stake a claim on Israel’s specific geographical location based on the Bible, since Abraham’s (PBUH) progeny was given the Promised Land. However, the primary driving force behind the deep commitment to Israel is the deep-seated Jewish fear of persecution and annihilation.
This is why they reject the notion of sharing the land with the Arab population, who are also the progeny of Abraham’s (PBUH), being the descendants of the other son Ishmael. Early Zionists had considered claiming Uganda as their country. Religious entitlement was thus not the primary driving force for claiming Palestine to create Israel.
The slogan “From the River to the Sea,” was a Zionist slogan which showed the Jewish yearning for their own homeland blessed with both freshwater and a port. When protestors in the US — including Jewish-American protestors — chanted the same slogan for Palestine, it became a dog whistle term, which sent alarm bells ringing in Zionist minds. Zionist Jews everywhere perceive this slogan as their own version of the Great Replacement Theory.
This is why world condemnation has the opposite effect on Zionist Israelis. It sends them into an overdrive in committing unspeakable horrors against the Palestinians, as an attempt at self-preservation. This is also why Orthodox Jews are against the state of Israel and they joined left wing and progressive American Jews in a rare show of solidarity with these two groups. “Israel’s right to exist,” was a term often used to respond to either gauge the standing of an individual’s on the political spectrum or to defend the genocide at international forums. Diaspora Jews do not share this fear and find no need to assert the “right to exist” of a country mandated by the United Nations. They are now also increasingly aware of the occupation and the continuing genocide. This is why they are not ideologically aligned with Zionists.
On September 22, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held up a map at the United Nations General Assembly that placed the West Bank and Gaza within the boundaries of sovereign Israel. After the signing of the Abraham Accords, Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE normalized relations with Israel in 2020. Saudi Arabia was all set to follow suit in late 2023. This is what compelled Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas to make a last-ditch desperate attempt to catch the world’s attention and show Israel’s true face to the world. This time the 47,000 dead, hundreds of thousands of injured and crippled, and two million displaced Palestinians managed to awaken the world’s conscience.
The live-streamed genocide and images of Palestinian bombing, starvation and lack of safety even in hospitals and UN shelters, managed to undo seventy five years of Zionist propaganda. In its previous campaigns in Gaza under similar circumstances in 2008, 2009, 2014 and 2021, what Israel terms as “mowing the lawn,” the Zionist state controlled the narrative and always emerged with a clean image.
October 7 made Palestine a globally important issue in one fell swoop. The 1.100 dead Israelis and the 250 hostages aggrieved the Israeli society and put political pressure on Netanyahu. Israel’s unhinged aggression caught the world’s attention and shifted the narrative from Israel-the-victim-of-terrorism to Israel-the genocidal-apartheid-state.
Israel’s military, touted as the world’s most moral army, had its soldiers gleefully sharing war crimes on Tik Tok, providing digital proof against themselves. Israeli soldiers now risk prosecution if they step afoot in any of the 125 countries that are parties to the Rome statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Israel has become a pariah state, which is the greatest existential threat.
An anonymous social media comment I read, sums up the global opinion: “Every decent human with humanity and common sense would not support occupation, oppression, apartheid, genocide and war crimes.” “Genocidal Israel is the social cause of our times” was the sentiment expressed on campus protests that erupted across the US. This is problematic for POTUS Trump on many levels.
Four considerations are vital for Trump. Firstly, Trump represents the forces of capitalism. The pariah status of Israel is bad for business. Mainstream media never showed Israeli atrocities but now even mainstream news channels such as MSNBC, CNN, etc. and even the staunch pro-Israeli newspaper, The New York Times covered the stories of Israel’s unhinged aggression.
When the Jewish-American Orthopedic surgeon Dr. Mark Perlmutter appears on MSNBC and states that the Palestinian carnage exceeds anything he has seen before in his vast experience in war zones, it is the best exposé on Israel.
When this Jewish doctor mentions that the TNT equivalent of Nagasaki and Hiroshima has been dropped on the narrow strip of land that is Gaza, it showcases Israeli genocidal rampage on a population predominantly consisting of women and children. Such spotlight on Israeli war crimes is truly bad news for business. With a tanking economy, Trump’s priority is American economic recovery and the Middle East has a big part to play in this. Israel’s genocide is a huge bottleneck in achieving American economic revival goals.
Secondly, US citizens are protesting their country’s unconditional support to Israel in its genocidal campaign. As the main supplier that provides 80% of the bombs and all of the F35’s, F-16’s and Iron Dome missiles, the US complicity in the genocide is doing extensive damage to the moral standing of the world’s sole super power.
It is also putting the spotlight on what the US is lacking in healthcare, public infrastructure and veteran support. Above all, social media posts are broadcasting the Israeli control of the US elections, the state machinery, the media, academia and industry. Such critique compromises US’ status as the world’s sole superpower, when it is being manipulated by a tiny foreign country.
Thirdly, it is setting precedent for brazen disregard for international law. Other future conflicts could be modeled on the same lines, since a free pass was given to Israel. It must be remembered that the United Nations (UN) was formed in response to the second World War and the Nazi perpetrated holocaust. The rule based international order established by the UN, has been perpetually challenged by Israel, due to the impunity it was granted by the US. When a genocide is live streamed, when hospitals are bombed to smithereens, when UN refugee camps are bombarded and Phosphorous bombs are dropped on children, it becomes instructive for other militant groups and rogue states. The US under Trump is not willing to support that.
Finally, the path of militarization that the US has taken for fighting Israel’s wars since 2002 has weakened the US. Unwinnable wars have cost the US military its prestige. The US is now being challenged by other nations. Its status as the world leader in economics, diplomacy, international order, technology and culture is being contested. New blocs such as BRICS have formed and are expanding rapidly as rivals to US power.
The US Dollar is close to losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. This loss will be catastrophic for the US, as the heavily indebted country will cease to be a superpower if that happens. Saudi Arabia’s tilt to BRICS and its strained relations with Israel due to the Palestinian genocide are a death knell for the US economy.
Trump had declared Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in his last term in office. This time around, Trump has American interest in mind when he browbeat Netanyahu into signing the ceasefire agreement and has publicly declared its distance from Israel. This is a marked shift from statements which all US presidents and politicians always make in support of Israel. Trump is doing this for reasons explained earlier, and for the fact that Israel failed miserably in defeating a militia operating in a tiny strip of land only 26 miles long. With allout American support, Israel invaded Gaza and unleashed hell on its helpless residents. Israel made full use of Robert Pape’s controversial theory of air power. It used all four strategies: Punishment, which aims to increase cost to enemy civilians; Risk, which targets enemy civilians in an incremental way; Denial, which targets enemy resources and forces; and Decapitation, which targets the enemy leadership and command and control structures.
Israel still lost to Hamas
Antony Blinken declared in mid-January that Hamas had replenished its ranks with as many new fighters as it had lost in fifteen months. Around 70,000 tons of bombs were dropped on Gaza with duds estimated to be five per cent. This translates to 3,500 tons of ammunition for Hamas, a formula for continued hostilities.
Israel has declared that it lost 1,000 soldiers. However, some estimate the critically injured to number 100,000. The Israeli military is demoralized. Israel experienced a massive brain drain, as half a million have fled Israel, mostly tech workers and educated professionals such as doctors and teachers, many of whom held dual passports. Israel’s economy has taken a massive hit as it is being boycotted internationally.
In June 2024, the micro chip giant Intel pulled out of a proposed USD 25 billion investment. Pension funds etc., are withdrawing from Israeli banks. Tourism is unthinkable now. Israel’s weapon’s exports peaked in 2023 but plummeted after the war as domestic instability deters buyer nations.
Israel’s surveillance software in demand in the global south for spying and surveillance, lost 50% of sales volume after the success of the surprise operations of October 7. Hamas bypassed the greatest surveillance paraphernalia in existence, that 24/7 monitored every single resident of Gaza. Israel’s judiciary had been compromised even before October 7, which deters foreign direct investment. Israel has a massive internally displaced population, and a militant armed settler population group that has been inducted in the police.
Above all, Israel is now being condemned globally, as the spotlight is on its war crimes and genocide. If Israel is to survive as a state, it cannot afford to stay under the spotlight.
The next logical step in mitigating the existential threat to Israel is the lifting of the siege of Gaza, the enforcement of a No-Fly Zone and an arms embargo. Zionist American billionaires probably see this too.
The Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, National security Minister, Ben Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotridge and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant are being held responsible for the genocide, to save Israel from collective punishment this time.
These men are not rogue elements within the Israeli establishment, they mirror the sentiments of their political party, the Likud, which has dominated Israeli politics since 1977 and shaped public aspirations. In a carefully constructed move, Trump first threatened Hamas and demanded a release of all hostages. Next, Trump shared a clip of Jewish-American Professor Jeffrey Sachs’ address at the Cambridge Union.
The Professor had used colorful language for Netanyahu, when he blamed the latter for all the wars that the US has fought in the last 22 years.
The clip was shared to foreshadow what was to follow
POTUS Trump chose his golf buddy the real estate billionaire Steve Witkoff as his envoy to Israel. Witkoff high handedly met Netanyahu on Saturday, pushing aside the notion of Jewish sabbath observance. Being a Jewish real estate mogul, only Witkoff could pull this off. He pretty much told Netanyahu that the ceasefire needs to happen before Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.
Trump played to a diverse audience with this move
The radically altered political landscape of the US is also key to Trump playing hard ball with Israel. Trump started the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement when he frequently used the slogan. This political slogan found traction in media, social media, advertising and was even parodied or parroted off internationally. MAGA has been critiqued to be a racist dog whistle term designed to appeal to the conservative whites. Trump has leveraged the great replacement theory — that other races are overtaking white Americans — and wooed the conservative white masses by promising to restore the US to its former glory.
Trump’s jingoistic MAGA slogan means different things to different people and hence it essentially satisfies diverse and even divergent expectations. It appeals to a motley crowd of the neo-fascists, the disoriented and demoralized lower and middle-class white Americans and even the Libertarian Party supporters who spawned fringe movements such as the RATWM (Rage Against the War Machine). The current US military budget is 880 billion USD. The wars that the US has fought in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan and Libya have resulted in cuts in public spending. Rising inflation and the spread of poverty among working- and middle-class white Americans has left many disillusioned and demoralized. Despite a mammoth military budget, veterans are left out of funding. Many veterans are homeless, struggling with mental health, and suicides are on the rise. They are the voter base of Trump.
The MAGA slogan thus has a visceral appeal for divergent groups. Trump’s voter base of the Populist Right has an anti-Semitic element in its midst, but White Evangelical Protestants with their Christian Zionism overshadow their ideology. It must be kept in mind that POTUS Trump has to balance all interest groups, including the Israeli lobby. It is likely that the Israel lobby is seeing the imminent destruction of Israel given Israel’s pariah status, the brain drain, capital flight and a tanking economy. The Israel lobby is also bent on curtailing militarism to save Israel. Trump sending a Jewish billionaire real estate tycoon as his envoy for the Gaza ceasefire is hence a master stroke. Trump is not driven by humane motives. He is a business mogul who is forcing Netanyahu’s hand for three reasons.
Firstly, Netanyahu and his coterie are being designated to take the fall for the Gaza genocide. National security Minister, Ben Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotridge and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant are held responsible by being labeled as far right extremists. The truth is that these men represent the political philosophy of an entire nation. They are not rogue elements in the Israeli establishment.
However, for political expediency they are being singled out for scapegoating. The outgoing US secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that despite a 15 month long invasion and intense carpet bombing of Gaza — which razed 85% of the city to the ground — the numerical strength of Hamas has been maintained due to new recruits.
Israelis were hoping to see territorial gains with Hamas being wiped out and the civilian Palestinians being driven out. With Gazans gone to Egypt and the West Bank Palestinians driven out to Jordan, Israelis were expecting a real estate boon.
Secondly, Israel’s military was instead defeated in the war, despite US and western support. The mood in Israel is reflective of that as Israelis are feeling humiliated. POTUS Trump’s hard ball tactics allow Israel some face saving.
Thirdly, the ceasefire deal also enables the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to placate their masses. This is necessary for the revival of the Abraham Accords and the resumption of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which is crucial for the US economic interest. IMEC inaugurated in 2023 is a counterweight to China’s BRI, the Egyptian Suez Canal and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) of Iran through Central Asia and Russia to Europe.
POTUS Trump is additionally seeking to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal. Whether that is a red herring or an actual Trump endeavor at territorial expansion and resource dominance, remains to be seen. With the rising threat of BRICS, the US needs to foster deeper ties with its old allies in the Middle East. IMEC is one such move to retain Saudi Arabia as a key ally due to the Petro Dollar. Saudi Arabia’s tilt towards China and Russia by showing the desire of joining BRICS is a big blow against the US’ economic interest.
Saudi Arabia cannot re-engage with Israel and IMEC without a ceasefire, given the inflamed public sentiment after the Palestinian slaughter. Almost all quarters have expressed their reservations about Israel upholding the ceasefire, given its history of violating agreements. The ceasefire deal negotiated by Qatar, and guaranteed by it and Egypt is three-phased with each phase lasting 42 days.
In phase 1, Israel will get back 33 hostages in a 42- day period without withdrawing any troops. Israel will reposition the troops in phase 1 from the center to the periphery. Hamas will get 2,000 Palestinian prisoners released with 250 of them with life sentences. Displaced Gaza residents will return home. This will happen due to the Israeli forced withdrawal from the Philadelphia (border with Egypt) and Netzarim corridor (coastal highway). Palestinians Aid trucks to the tune of 600 a day of humanitarian relief and fuel are allowed in.
Phase 2 still has to be negotiated, only the broad framework is in place. The negotiation will happen on day 16 of phase 1. The balance of the Israeli hostages (soldiers) are to be released, some of whom are not thought to be alive. There are 98 total hostages. Israeli troops will vacate the Gaza strip. Phase 2 is when a permanent ceasefire has to come into effect, and Israel will withdraw from Gaza. Smotrich and Ben Gvir are against phase 2. Phase 2 will depend on the state of politics in Tel Aviv and Washington DC. There is a fear that phase 2 has not been negotiated because it may not happen.
However, Israel does not have a combat-willing military, weaponry to wage a war or the funds to buy weapons. While Israel’s expansionist goals and ethnic cleansing aspirations may very well be alive, it is in no position to pursue them.
Phase 3 is about the reconstruction of Gaza where there is 42 million tons of rubble. This is a long-term project dependent on the successful execution of phase 2.
According to the famed Jewish-American public intellectual Norman Finklestein, it will take 10 to 15 years to clear out the rubble. There is no prospect of rebuilding Gaza because Israel will claim that any cement that enters Gaza will be used to build tunnels, as they did in Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
Yayha Sinwar had orchestrated October 7 to negotiate a prisoner exchange of Palestinians held under inhumane conditions in Israeli prisons. Phase 1 of the ceasefire will vindicate his martyrdom.
However, the responsibility to liberate Palestine now falls on the shoulders of the world to continue exerting pressure on Israel. In my opinion, it is highly likely that phase 2 will last through the Trump years, for the sake of giving Israel the time needed to recoup.
If the citizens of the world unite to keep the cause of Palestine a burning issue, Israel’s ethnic cleansing and ongoing genocide can be halted forever. The Boycott Divest and Sanction (BDS) movement spearheaded by Omar Barghouti has achieved many boycott and divestment milestones. It only needs more traction to achieve western sanction on Israel.
Some 60 media and rights organizations have urged the European Union to suspend a cooperation accord with Israel and impose sanctions, accusing the country of “massacring journalists” in Gaza. Such momentum is oxygen for Palestine’s liberation. We have a moral obligation towards Palestine to join the BDS movement to do our bit. Together, we can achieve the liberation of Palestine.
