“We build too many walls and not enough bridges.” – Isaac Newton
The current attitude of India and Pakistan towards each other is best expressed in a German phrase ‘Schadenfreude’ meaning one gets pleasure and satisfaction from the misery and suffering of the other. It is in India’s own long-term interest to downgrade its support of Baloch separatists as Pakistan’s patience is not guaranteed to be permanent. Pakistan can again take up the cause of Sikh separatists for Khalistan in earnest. Both sides need to guard against ‘instant gratification’ for short term tactical gains. They should get satisfaction from their own achievements rather than ‘Schadenfreude’. It is in the interest of both countries to ‘decouple’ in the short and medium term. India is aiming for a global economic role, and decoupling serves its interest where the world does not view India through the prism of India-Pakistan relations. Pakistan is facing a deep political, economic and security crisis and latching on an issue that has no relevance to the country’s pressing problems and does not serve any purpose. Moreover, Pakistan by default is losing the many opportunities afforded because of its geographical location. This decoupling will help both countries to pursue their core interests in the short and medium term. This cooling down period can be used for low level benign measures like sports competitions, especially cricket in third countries and easing of visa regime for religious pilgrimage and cultural events. If both countries find it in their interest to pursue additional measures, especially in the economic arena, then they can build on the ‘decoupling phase’. The major risk is violence perpetrated by militant groups in either country without the support of the opponent state. One possible safety measure against surprises could be to have a hotline between the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Islamabad and Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) in New Delhi at the Major General or equivalent level on the same pattern as between the Chiefs of General Staff of the Pakistan and Indian Armies. A physical presence would be ideal but that would give a negative perception of possible hostile activity. This channel should be solely for communication and not to be used for usual clandestine activities against the host country. Emerging threats from networks to the hierarchical nation states could be the incentive for such un-conventional liaison approach. The Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) is one such potential threat in the future that can pose serious risk to the economic health of both countries. There are historical reasons dating back to the partition in 1947 and painful memories of subsequent conflicts between the two countries. Psychological barriers of deep mistrust, anger and in some cases outright hatred of the other are the major obstacles in the relations between the two countries and are most difficult to overcome. One must be realistic about the possibilities and have modest expectations about any efforts of rapprochement between India and Pakistan.
In the last ten years, India and Pakistan have moved on where the legacy of Kashmir issue has receded in the background. In the last ten years, Pakistan Army has shut down the Kashmir file by decommissioning organizations involved in Kashmir militancy. This helped the Indian government to contain its major national security threat. On the part of Pakistan, rhetorical support for Kashmir is confined to a small segment of society that has no meaningful impact on Kashmir. In fact, some organizations funded by wealthy businessmen are meant only to have contacts with the establishment to promote their own business interests. India does not need to trust Pakistani statements but verify facts and observe trends. Rise of religious-nationalist right-wing political force in India with extreme negative view of Pakistan is feeding the hawkish narrative. If it is limited to rhetoric for domestic political consumption, then the damage is limited. However, this sentiment is feeding blatant Indian support of Baloch separatists in Pakistan.
“Everything in your life reflects a choice you have made. If you want a different result, make a different choice.”
Pakistan’s geographical location is an unmatchable blessing – at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. This location offers unparalleled opportunities to serve as a critical hub for regional trade, connectivity, and economic stability. With nearly 5 billion people living within 2,000 miles of its borders, including 1.5 billion Muslims (1.2 billion in developing countries), Pakistan is a geographical bridge between diverse regions and economies. It is imperative to leverage this advantage for westward trade opportunities with Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Iran, extending to Europe, without reliance on India. For regional development, this is an opportune moment to refocus on the Central AsiaWest Asia corridor as well as significance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Moreover, the importance of Pakistan’s ports has grown substantially as China faces challenges with BRI projects across nearly 70 countries. While the CPEC provides China with direct land access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean via a road and railway network linking Kashgar to Karachi and Gwadar, the NorthSouth and old RCD highway corridors also enables Central Asian countries to connect to Pakistan’s Bin Qasim, Karachi, and Gwadar ports. The land distance from Kashgar to Gwadar is just 2,800 kilometers, and the combined Kashgar-Le Havre route spans 15,883 kilometers, this corridor is vital for regional economic integration and global trade. Projects like the Khyber Pass Economic Corridor (KPEC) and the Peshawar-Kabul-Dushanbe Motorway will provide more efficient and cost-effective trade routes once they become operational. The Peshawar-Kabul expressway, as part of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridors, will strengthen links between Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The $4.8 billion Trans-Afghan Railway project links Uzbekistan’s Termez city to Pakistan’s seaports via Afghanistan. Finalized in July 2023, the Termez-Mazar-e-Sharif-Shashpul-Logar-Karlachi route is set to cut transit times by 30%, bolstering trade with Central Asia and facilitating Pakistan’s exports to Europe. Iran’s energy resources and Chahbahar port enhance connectivity to Europe, complementing Pakistan’s Gwadar port. The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is crucial for Pakistan’s energy security by providing access to Iran’s natural gas reserves (the second largest in the world).
For Pakistan, multiple trade opportunities exist, the Central Asia republic’s market with its rich energy resources and strategic positioning is crucial to Pakistan’s geo-economic aspirations. Trade with Central Asian Republics (CARs) has shown steady growth but far below its potential. Agreements such as the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) and Transit Trade Agreement (TTA), promise to significantly enhance trade volumes by making Pakistani products more competitive and streamlining trade routes. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have already implemented transit trade agreements. This is reflected in a rise in Pakistani exports to Central Asia – a 21.17% rise in exports to CARs reaching $158.07 million recorded in February 2024. Pakistan’s major exports to the region include rice, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and fruits, while imports mainly consist of cotton, chemicals, and metals. The regional dynamics will evolve with the completion of major projects such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) Power Transmission Project and the CASA-1000 – Pakistan will become an emerging energy transit hub. The CASA-1000, a $1.16 billion initiative, will transmit 1,300 MW of electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. One must leverage the land access to Africa through Karachi, Gwadar and Port Qasim. With Roll on/Roll off connectivity to Saudi Arabia and Oman, accessing Africa through their excellent highways is a tremendous geo-economic opportunity waiting to be exploited in a win-win situation for everyone including the countries through which the corridor passes.
Pakistan’s geo-economic strategies make India less relevant to its westward trade ambitions. India’s regional goals often depend on Pakistan, evidenced by attempts to bypass it via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which highlights Pakistan’s geographical significance. Russia’s invitation for Pakistan to join the INSTC further reinforces this reality. Despite tensions, Pakistan has shown goodwill with initiatives like the Kartarpur Corridor and ongoing dialogue proposals, while firmly maintaining its sovereignty. To enhance trade with alternatives, Pakistan should actively engage with the SCO and the ECO, and encourage domestic industries to explore new non-traditional markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Steering its foreign and trade policies away from the India-centric framework, Pakistan has the opportunity to unlock the full potential of its geographic position, natural resources, and regional partnerships. For decades, Pakistan’s trade and foreign policy have been overshadowed by its relationship with India, oscillating between hostility and sporadic attempts at engagement. However, the time has come for Pakistan to stop defining its trade and strategic outlook depending on India—either as a potential partner or an adversary. Instead, Pakistan must look inward to its strengths and outward to opportunities excluding its eastern neighbour.
India is a big country with immense resources, it would be tremendous if we have good relations with them, encompassing political economic and military spheres. However, if they want to pursue their animosity as they have shown recently in refusing to come to Pakistan in the Cricket Champions Trophy, we should not worry about it. They should get on with their lives and let us get on with ours. However, if they continue interfering in our affairs like they are doing in Balochistan and KPK today, we should start actively interfering in theirs. This shift represents a choice for independent growth and sustainable prosperity. In the words of Lao Tzuo:
“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
