Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a historic first given to understand the psyche and conventions of American politics. The fact that the impulsive, firebrand and X-obsessed leader stood his ground and continued to campaign on an agenda that irked the powerful US security establishment, and was at odds with many of the Republican stalwarts too, is his doctrine of comeback. The 47th President of the United States surely won’t be another incumbent to serve as head of state, but his tenure will be fraught with consequences as he intends to change the course of governance and administrative norms for the better of civility.
Having survived a couple of assassination attempts, browbeaten his adversaries at home and abroad, and swung back to power on a popular vote along with the Senate and the House of Representatives under his belt, Trump has the amplitude to walk the talk: “Make America Great Again!”. The New York-born ultra-rich deal-maker is eager to “fix everything”. Will he be able to do it is no more a riddle. He has set the ball rolling by taking on the Pentagon and wants some serious course-correction by nailing down military officers (Generals) who went berserk while exiting Afghanistan, rendering a strategic blow to four decades of US meddling in the region. His earth-shaking 10-point plan, likewise, to dismantle the ‘deep state’, target intelligence agencies, cut to size bureaucratic echelons, tame down political elites and, moreover, restore executive control through transparency and federal decentralisation will change America for good. His electoral promise to accommodate foreign students graduating in the US with immigration privilege, and at the same time show the door to around 11 million people in shadows, are epoch-making policy options. A glance at his would-be foreign policy reveals that the State Department will be on tenterhooks as he plans somersaults with allies and adversaries, alike. The president-elect’s desire to befriend Russia is no secret, and he mustered the courage to say it in so many words that he is on the same wavelength with President Vladimir Putin in redrawing a new strategic synchronization of Europe.
It seems like Martin Luther King-Junior, Trump too “has a plan” to fix the world at large. He wants to end an ‘undesired war’ in Ukraine; out to embarrass his NATO allies by making them dig deep into their pockets, intends to once again walk out of the Paris Climate accord, apart from bringing ‘peace’ to the Middle East by striking a new consensus of comfortability between the Arab states and the Zionist regime.
The Republican leader who surprised the pundits of doom by making Blue states go Red on the first Tuesday of November 2024, raised many eyebrows as he chose JD Vance as vice-president, despite the fact that he was a competitor and both were daggers drawn for years. Perhaps, Trump had the vision to look deep into swing states philosophy as he entrusted Vance, and bagged bounties as urban White and Black women along with Hispanics voted for him.
Trump’s pick of Senator Marco Rubio from Florida as Secretary of State made jaws drop. Rubio is a sworn hawk and wants to tear down Russia, confront China and solidify the existing unflinching bonds with Israel. Irrespective of the fact that this agenda contradicts Trump’s eagerness to engage Beijing, especially President Xi Jinping, and have a renewed understanding on Ukraine and Europe with Putin, and reconcile Tel Aviv and Riyadh.
It remains to be seen what Rubio, the first Latino to serve as Secretary of State, will have on his sleeves. It is also assumed that straight jacket bilateralism that was underway with Biden could lead to a compressed and reduced relationship under Trump, where men like Rubio pushing for a ‘Monroe Doctrine’ to counter Chinese influence across the Atlantic could derail engagement. Similarly, Elon Musk as Information wizard and Tulsi Gabbard as Intelligence Chief hint at his daredevil soundness of judgment.
The second non-security establishment president after John F. Kennedy will be ruling America at a time when the world is in transition, and multilateralism is on the rise. The emergence of BRICS as a parallel system to the dollar-dominated world is a challenge and Trump’s quick-fix decision making with foreign leaders will be up for test.
Striking a new nexus with Global South is desired, in order to dispel the impression that the industrialized West is a parasite and is oblivious to the socio-economic trajectories of the underdeveloped countries in Asia and Africa.
The return of Donald Trump to White House, likewise, is being studied at length in Beijing. One of the prime concerns for the Red Dragon is the protectionist strategy from the president-elect who has been eloquent in criticizing China and vowed to slap punitive tariffs to the extent of 60% on imports. Notwithstanding the backlash that it would lead to heating up of the US economy itself, as higher tariffs could push inflation upward forcing Fed to raise interest rate.
Beijing, nonetheless, seems prepared to deal with the ultra-right elements in Washington and has apparently learnt lessons from Trump’s first stint in power. Having navigated four years of tough trade tensions, China must have a contingency plan at hand.
This is why Trump has repeatedly praised President Xi and has hinted at working with him in an endeavor to strike a deal, which will see cooperation from chips to start-ups and big-ticket investments in the US get a logical way out. It will also be a win-win situation for China as its export-driven economy is struggling with a slow recovery and weakened consumer demand.
The fact that Trump seems generous with Russia and wants to nail down European ambitions in the military context by bringing an end to war in Ukraine could be a sigh of relief for China. But the plausible hypertension created by Rubio, and his likes, over Taiwan and talks of a renewed Cold War will be unnerving.
The call, however, rests with Trump who believes in check-mating his own security establishment in an earnest attempt to broker a thaw at home. Will he take on China is hard to guess.
Pakistan, last but not least, is on Trump’s radar. It is widely hoped that he will not harp on the tune of ‘do more’ – as was the convention in his first tenure — with Islamabad and stop seeing the region from the prism of security. The president-elect by virtue of his liability-free Afghan policy can be an asset in rewriting a new counter-terrorism convention in the region, and take along China and India in it, counting on his newfound love to see Iran return to international order provided it gives up the bomb option.
Secondly, the new administration must work on brokering a thaw between India and Pakistan. Trump is on record having expressed his desire to work for brokering a strategic understanding between New Delhi and Islamabad, and was the first American leader in decades to spell the “Kashmir” word in all humility. He must walk the talk to reorient the region on geo-economic lines, by taking a departure from conventionalism of arming India at the altar of Pakistan.
The catch-22 for Islamabad comes as one peeps into the political cards that Trump is holding close to his chest. His warmness and cordiality for incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan is no secret.
It also goes without saying that he has been a beneficiary of a pro-PTI vote slide for the Republicans as the Pakistani diaspora voted for him by nursing wounds with the Biden administration.
Perhaps that is why former chairman Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, Mushahid Hussain Syed deserves kudos for prophesying that “a telephonic call from Trump” will instantly lead to changes on the political spectrum of Pakistan, as the learned senator predicted a landslide for the Republican Maverick when the chips were down.
Trump, known for having a benevolent heart, is set to do the needful in making the pendulum swing as far as taking note of human rights violations are concerned as well as retrieving the February 8 mandate for his stardom friend, Imran Khan.
It has to be borne in mind that Trump will be working with a House of Representatives which had passed ‘Resolution 901’ urging to ‘support democracy and human rights in Pakistan’ with a startling 368 in favour and 7 against. The resolution calls for a “full and independent investigation of claims of interference or irregularities in Pakistan’s February 2024 election.” This is in addition to a letter from more than 50 US lawmakers calling on President Biden to press the Pakistan government to release Imran Khan along with other “political prisoners”. That can’t be resisted for long.
Trump’s presidency is a case study for all those who predict a world order on America’s intending policy premise. His return to power, nonetheless, is a decisive rejection by American voters of liberalism and that gives Trump’s triumph an opportunity to register a new era in US politics and perhaps for the world as a whole.
