Pakistan is going through a wave of terrorism waged by militant groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cross border terrorism, Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) as well as sectarian clashes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These attacks have intensified and it appears that enemy proxies are utilizing maximum resources to achieve their aims. Attacks from BLA are very coordinated, the equipment and weapons used are very sophisticated and there seems to be no shortage of human resources. In the same manner, TTP is trying to cross the border fence but many are being killed and also taken into custody; it is also apparent that TTP cadres are coming from Afghanistan.
Last but not least, the sectarian intervention from neighbours is an additional challenge for law enforcement agencies. The BLA terror group and its affiliates are apparently aligned with Kurd fighters from PKK and YPG that does indicate bigger plans in this great game.
Since the past couple of decades Pakistan has been a prime target of terrorism that emanates from certain hidden and known hostile agencies in the domain of 5th Generation hybrid warfare. The main purpose of this type of warfare is to weaken the country’s soft image, infrastructure and economy. The next stage comes when paid proxy groups are used to wage guerrilla type warfare to destabilize the country as is done in countries such as Yugoslavia, Syria and Libya. To achieve such objectives, the hostile powers use many means and manoeuvres to execute their vicious plans like igniting religious or ethnic sentiments that is usually mishandled by government officials, conflicting media reporting, elaborate negative imaging to harm the economy and to widen the ethnic differences, etc.
The challenges related to terrorism need a much coordinated and professional approach that could only be achieved by good governance but it is apparent in view of the management chaos and lack of timely decision that exists amongst Government rank n files has made the situation even worst. The proxy elements remain vigilant to profit from such an opportunity; it is quite probable that some paid elements are being used to ignite the situation.
The recent coordinated terror attacks In Balochistan indicate enemy plans against China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and is a desperate but organized attempt to disturb Pakistan-China relations. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have also realized the importance of Pakistan as a strategic balancer and ties are improving. In order to counter 5th Generation proxies and to safeguard Pakistan’s interests, Pakistan finally took a rightful measure and started building a dual sided fence along 2500+ km long Pakistan-Afghan border.
As of now, a major portion of the fence has been completed with military settlements being setup and fortified check posts. An immediate impact was noticed when major terror attacks in Pakistan were considerably reduced; this indicates clearly that most of these notorious actors were hiding in Afghanistan and was being used as a launching pad against Pakistan.
Despite steps taken by Pakistan, rouge TTP elements are constantly trying to cut the fence and infiltrate Pakistan for terror attacks. While this fence has proved to be quite effective, rouge terror elements were using the Iran side of the border to infiltrate; but the Iran-Pakistan border fence is also being built along with Pakistan Iran border security apparatus activation. The next thing to control in this domain is the presence of sleeper cells which are believed to be merged amongst refugees and can be activated whenever required.
In addition to fencing the border with Afghanistan, we must also be ready to take additional measures in the coming future. It is the sole right of a country to protect its interests and safeguard its citizens from any uncertainty, for example, like a war-like situation next door. We can leverage a recent example from Turkey.
Turkey launched an assault on Syria against the PKK/ YPG terror groups and enforced a zone of influence about 30 km wide along its border with Syria so that Turkey could be protected from ISIS, PKK and YPG terror groups.
The same tactics can be exercised by Pakistan to protect its borders when required. The entire world knows that Afghanistan is a war-torn country and is a sanctuary for all kinds of terrorist networks. Acting against terrorist groups being launch Afghan soil is the right of a sovereign country like Pakistan. We should also keep in mind that today we live in a world where only the powerful prevail so if some people comment about India’s ambitions and it reacting to Pakistan’s aggressive stance of establishing a zone of influence inside Afghanistan, it will not be possible due to balance of power.
I am not suggesting to take immediate steps as taken by Turkey and sending troops in the manner inside Afghanistan, but there are ways how to establish buffer zone and I am convinced the time is approaching when our planners must keep this option on the table. For instance, the active or semi active special flanks can be present permanently beyond the Durand Line to ensure prevention of any imminent threat towards Pakistan.
While these are not steps we haven’t exercised previously but we do have vast experience of the 1980 era Afghan war where many tactical procedures were developed. I had mentioned in a detailed article a couple years ago that an effective Border Management System at the 950+ km long Iran border could be set up in the same way as done with the 2500+ km long Afghan border like “an organized fencing” which is necessary to control and regulate the law and order situation in Pakistan since it has been established that terrorists used to enter Pakistan from free Afghan border crossings and from the Iranian side.
The episode of Kulbhushan Jadav and his proxy network using Iranian soil against Pakistan is a clear and obvious example and the raison d’etre for Pakistan setting up fencing arrangement with the Iranian border.
It has been noticed lately that completion of such fencing arrangement at the Afghan border has considerably reduced activities of proxy terror groups and the security situation has improved a lot in past few years. Pakistan successfully fought the 5th Generation proxy war with the help of the people of Pakistan, the Army and our Markhors. The vicious net was laid in 90’s decade along with tremendous logistical preparations against Pakistan for such a proxy war that was launched during Lal Masjid incident in 2007.
The sentiments used then were the demands from people of Swat regarding Islamic Laws that ignited local Shariah Movement by Sufi Mohammad that was later hijacked by Mulla Fazlullah and his foreign bosses.
Keeping it short and to the point, it is that the Pakistan Government should always try to make progress via debate within our society for any existing issues regardless if these are religious, cultural, ethnic or social injustice because these issues have the capacity to be later ignited, and hostile powers try to benefit from these internal conflicts by creating proxies via multiple means that I mentioned in early part of the article.
Countering 5th Generation hybrid warfare & Kinetic Insurgency
Foreseeing enormous strategic challenges from eastern and western borders, the following measures/ recommendations are suggested for our planners to counter 5th Generation tactics.
• National Action Plan to be implemented with full and immediate effect.
• Raise two full corps of Counter Terrorism Departments (CTDs) in KPK and Balochistan. The current numbers are not enough to counter a massive insurgency.
• All law enforcements and kinetic counter actions must be handled by CTD we well as Quick Response Force (QRF) and Anti-Riot Force (ARF).
• Keeping in mind known risks from eastern and western side, Pakistan must make the Iranian side of border safe by building a 950+ km long fence/wall. The Afghan side fence was under development since 2017, now completed.
• The intelligence networks need more resources (state of the art technology tools) and rigorous training keeping in mind various internal and external fronts. It includes all levels of resources starting from additional resources for defence agencies to civil law enforcement agencies.
• Joint intelligence collaboration with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states under Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) can be extremely helpful in handling challenges from Afghanistan. This collaboration will further benefit when additional economic activities like RPEC (Russia-Pakistan Economic Corridor), North South Gas Pipeline will be matured in the next few years.
• NACTA must lead for effective coordination amongst various agencies, and this organisation should be a leading institute countering enemy hybrid warfare tactics. I haven’t seen evidence of the full effectiveness of NACTA. This is a critical step to fight 5th Generation enemy tactics.
• Counter narrative groups must be created for handling any anti-Pakistan trends on social media. No harmful trends and pro-nationalists agenda should be allowed to be transmitted or spread hatred under any circumstances.
• Counter and keep a close eye on media anchors who ignite the situation by frequently switching their versions. It must be noted that some media groups and personnel are one key tool being used in such type of warfare.
• We need to develop counter capabilities of our civil law enforcement agencies quickly and aggressive IBO’s must be continued on long term basis as these have proved to be extremely effective and must be extended to all other domains wherever necessary.
• A sharp awareness campaign must be initiated to let the Pakistani nation know about the lethalness of 5th Generation warfare. This warfare was lately used for destroying Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen along with some pieces taken from the Yugoslavian model. In this warfare, multi-pronged approach is used to destabilize a country with help from various forms of media, igniting regional and internal disputes, utilizing internal overt and covert proxies like BLA, TTP and religious sectarian groups, etc. Pakistan is the only country that has defeated 5th Gen-warfare elements from Swat to Karachi TTP-based terror outfits and the rest will be taken care of by effective IBOs.
• The Police is not yet designed to handle hybrid warfare and insurgency, so it is necessary to set up training for overall police structure in Pakistan to enable them handle this lethal warfare. ISPR can play a vital role in this domain. Moreover, retired army personnel and/or bubble assignments from the army can be extended to the police for establishing such arrangements to create an organized culture amongst police structure.
• The people of Pakistan must be vigilant against any groups/elements (TTP, BYC and PTM) who may try to ignite chaos. The Government and ISPR should set up a strategy to activate counter-social media groups against 5th Gen proxies. It seems that organized trends are being developed by anti-Pakistani elements to show negative image of the country that impacts badly on multiple areas and dimensions. These organized groups are already set up by hostile agencies as part of hybrid warfare through social media propaganda and the only way to counter them is to establish/setup equal response via organized social media groups that can elaborate Pakistan’s rationale narrative.
• Make every effort to document entire population in the country under NADRA, including visitors and refugees.
• Set dates for refugees’ status to be determined (from 1978 onwards etc.). The National Assembly to pass legislation in this regard.
• Perform all types of transit trade via Pakistani truck drivers within Pakistan.
• Secure borders at any cost by deploying elite resources.
• Remove Afghan refugees from all positions to prevent information leakages.
• Use mosques to form Committees to keep an eye on suspicious activities.
• Community policing needs to be established and encouraged under Local Government or under the mosque structure so that local areas could be well monitored. This is one of the most effective methods to control intruders.
Pakistan is the only country who fought foreign imposed insurgencies and hybrid warfare in the past couple of decades resulting in tremendous monetary and infrastructure losses yet it emerged victorious while many countries were destroyed by such warfare tactics. This was possible only due to the unshaken bondage between people of Pakistan and our security institutions.
The above-mentioned recommendations for countering kinetic insurgencies and 5th Generation proxies are well researched and worth attention from concerned officials for implementation. Pakistan is currently in the phase of a strategic policy paradigm shift by getting closer to China and Russia. The membership of SCO is a clear example.
In addition, Pakistan’s role is pivotal for Chinese led OBOR vision due to its flagship CPEC project under OBOR and most importantly, SCO member countries are largely in favour of this economic corridor.
Because of to this bright forecast, adversaries will try to undermine Pakistan on all fronts by employing extreme kinetic insurgencies and advanced 5th generation proxies. We, as a nation, must be ready and vigilant to reverse enemy plans.
Col (Retd) Maqbool Malik
(contributed to this article)
