The Middle East is in a region in flux. Israel is out to carve out new dynamics solely premised on aggression and intimidation, and the timeline of revulsion for the last one year confirms that any hope for a Palestinian statehood stands dashed. Gaza has been completely obliterated and the West Bank is at the verge of being formally encroached. Likewise, Lebanon is in the line of fire and with the worst-ever bombardment of Beirut and annihilation of pro-Iranian Hezbollah leadership, the Zion buck is slowly moving towards Syria. The year-long expedition since October 7, 2023 when Hamas opted to test the nerves of the military establishment in the Jewish state proves that Israel has advanced with full might and, at least, called the Iranian bluff of standing up for the Muslim world’s cause.
Less said the better on Arab regimes’ apathy and incapacity in digging in their heels, and their superfluous stance for their brethren under the yoke of neo-colonialism. The casualty list of who’s who on the Axis of Resistance is worth-pondering. Hamas chief Ismael Haniyeh, Hezbollah Secretary-General Syed Hassan Nasrullah, along with their complete proactive men on ground were exterminated. In the next phase of killing, Israel had the audacity to recognise and target the second-tier leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, and that included Hamas’ new leader Yahya Sinwar, and Hezbollah’s new nominee Hashem Safieddine.
They all got killed like sitting ducks.Reports say Israel is now planning to strike Iran in revenge for flying ballistic missiles over its Iron Dome in October 2024, which hardly had an impact on the security-scared oppressive state. The Zionist intrusion seems to be well planned and if north of Gaza succumbs, south Lebanon will be next.
Taking on Beirut is a priority, and to quote Meir Ben Shabbat, a former national security advisor and chief of staff for national security, Israel has three options. It wants to create a security zone under the Israeli military, install a new political settlement over the strife-torn Arab state or to invade it altogether. The question is: is there a formidable resistance? A simple answer is: No. The Arab and Muslim states are in a slumber, and they have enough on their sleeves to worry about an uprising on their home front. The Arab Spring is still a living nightmare for Sheikhs and Emirs, and they shiver while imaging a 2.0 module in the wake of the Gaza uprising.
So is the case exclusively with Tehran that is bogged down in a new phenomenon of trying to unearth Israeli planted moles in its security edifice. Revelations that a number of senior Iranian military officials were compromised, and are being suspected as Israeli in formers has sent shivers down the spine. The Islamic Republic has been holding its horses by desisting from a denial to this day, which confirms the flip side of the story. There are reports that a purge is underway in Iran and the elite security apparatus is being cleansed of black sheep.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is on record admitting that the head of a secret service unit tasked with countering Israeli espionage in Iran was himself a spy working for Mossad. The revelation came as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was taken out by Shin Bet after orchestrating the reclusive leader’s whereabouts and trapping him down with his entire elite cabinet in the suburbs of Beirut. That was supersonic intelligence and could not have been achieved without inside prologue from Iran’s deep-state. Likewise, there was also a mole behind the air crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, whose copter’ went down in the mountains of Azerbaijan.
This impropriety allegedly discovered inside Iranian edifice has unnerved the revolutionary state. Yet, the leadership is walking straight and is trying to put up a brave face against adversities at home and abroad. It is a catch-22 situation for Iran, as it can neither lower the guard, nor step back from the pulpit and stop cursing Israel in an existential crisis.
So tense was the situation after Nasrallah’s exit that Supreme Leader Syed Ali Khamenei had to be taken underground. But he stood fast and defied rumours of his infirmity by leading the Friday prayers in the Holy city of Qom after a very long time. That was his first mass public appearance in decades, and his sermon was no less than a booster for Iranians and their sympathizers across the region.
The fact, however, is that there is a limit to flexing of muscles and that has dawned very well on the idealistic leadership. Now saner elements in the republic are openly calling for stepping back from the brink. The least that Iran needs to do is to work on a twopronged strategy: proactively engage the Western diplomats and strike a consensus in the Muslim world by giving up the prevalent sense of otherness in sectarian realms. But are the Iranians doing that? No. The doves are contemplating for it, whereas the hawks are pushing it to the brink! Iranians believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is out to redraw the map of Mideast, and Iran is no exception. Yet, they endeavour to avoid a direct conflict which could pitch it in a war with the United States. The reformers strongly advocate that Tehran should mull a policy to pull the republic back from sanctions, and that can only be done by engaging the European powers, and striking a new-normal with Washington. But soon the liberals-cum-realists find themselves in a stampede zone as ultra-nationalists and the orthodox play to the gallery and do all they can to decimate a silent awareness movement at home. The hawks in Iran conveniently forget that their repulsive approach is acting as a detrimental factor in furthering Iran’s regional influence as well as national interests, plunging it in the abyss of perpetual confrontation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent shuttle diplomacy, including trips to US allies Jordan and Egypt, who have peace accords with Israel, is a case in point. But to what extent it has helped in scaling down the bitterness and striking new wavelengths of homogeneity is anybody’s guess.
At the same time, there is an inherent policy contradiction at work in Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly in September hinted at kick-starting stalled talks over Iran’s nuclear program and, of course, that included a tête-àtête with the United States. That sentiment withered in thin air as Araghchi in Oman told reporters that “indirect talks with the Washington” under the auspices of Muscat are “no more a possibility”.
The point is where to go from here for Iran as it is the only power that is a thorn in the eyes of Israel. Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Jerusalem are Tel Aviv’s psychological colonies, whereas Jordan, Egypt and Gulf States are quite compromised, and are politically in accord with the Jewish state. The only exception, per se, is Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s egalitarian leadership. Apparently, he has a plan and will not succumb to the neo-transgression underway in the region. His endeavour is to strike a deal with the US and Israel, provided a state of Palestine comes into being. This is where there is an opportunity in disaster for Tehran to strongly rub shoulders with Riyadh, and become part and parcel of the New Muslim Mideast.
For that to happen, Iran will have to indulge in some deep introspection at home and abroad, and step back from its regressive policies and distancing from proxies is the way to go. Iran will have to become a part and parcel of international dispensation, and that does not mean signing off its sovereignty or giving up the revolutionary zeal. All it means is to start relying on diplomacy, and nothing but diplomacy in an era of multilateralism. Will Iran do so as the Middle East is in limbo and Israel is out to get away with anything? It calls for statesmanship and not brinkmanship. Otherwise, Israel is set to have the last laugh!
