Russian President Vladimir Putin made a twoday visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea (DPRK) on July 19, 2024, for the first time since the 2000s, because Russia had earlier agreed to the UN Security Council’s sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear program; these sanctions prevented Putin from visiting North Korea for the last 24 years. During the visit, Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty complete with military ties, defense pledge as well as economic cooperation and environmental improvement. The purpose of the visit was to strengthen economic and defense relations between Russia and North Korea as both states are under Western sanctions. This article examines the Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, emphasizing the possible expansion in nuclear capabilities of North Korea and its aftermath on the regional security of the Korean Peninsula.
According to NPR News now, both states have improved their bilateral relations since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as there exist some allegations by the West that North Korea has been delivering ammunition to Russia in the continuing Russia Ukraine-War. As a reward, Putin has assured giving economic and military support to North Korea. According to Reuters, the treaty reinforces political and economic relations, assures mutual defense cooperation, and a prominent military cooperation between both states. Kim has mentioned it as the “strongest ever treaty” between Russia and North Korea, while Putin has referred to it as a “breakthrough” in their relations. According to the Arms Control Association, the treaty encompasses a “Mutual Defense Clause”, which describes that both countries will give instant military assistance to each other if any state is invaded by one or multiple states. This clause is enshrined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which permits the “right of individual or collective defense” in response to an attack by any state. The treaty also provides military-technical cooperation between both countries, which includes the transfer of military technology and equipment, joint military exercises, space exploration, and collaboration in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. However, this cooperation in space and atomic energy is a violation of international sanctions on North Korea by Russia. The treaty also reduces the pressure of Western sanctions by enhancing trade and investment between both states. For Russia, the defense treaty allows it to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific and reaffirms its position as a resurging global power. On the other hand, North Korea sees Russia as a strong ally that can provide economic, political, military, and diplomatic support amidst international sanctions.
The treaty has sparked tensions in the West and the United States. The US views the agreement as a violation of international sanctions on North Korea by Russia and is concerned that it will boost North Korea’s nuclear program and the development of shortrange missiles. Pressure on the Asia-Pacific states has also increased following the announcement of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Japan and South Korea have also expressed their grave concerns and strongly condemned the strategic partnership, particularly regarding the Russian support for North Korea’s nuclear program. In response, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have announced plans to further strengthen security cooperation to prevent future escalations and for the maintenance of peace and stability in the region.
The new alliance between North Korea and Russia has the potential to form a triangular alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea. This alliance could serve as a counterbalance against U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region. However, it also has the potential to weaken China’s geopolitical influence over North Korea and allow for an increased military presence of the United States, Japan, and South Korea near China. This is a major concern for China, as this fear is now becoming a reality. For instance, on June 22, 2024, the United States sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to South Korea for a three-day military training exercise, following the announcement of the North Korea-Russia Mutual Defense Pact on June 19th, 2024. This is disturbing for the U.S., as the U.S. has given a nuclear umbrella to South Korea while China only provided economic assistance to North Korea but in the treaty, Russia has also provided nuclear support to North Korea. This treaty may raise the chances of nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula as it is among four nuclear flashpoints in the world according to Global Zero.
The treaty has the prospects to create both stability and instability in the Korean Peninsula. On the one hand, the treaty incorporates guarantees for mutual defense, which may deter external hostility, reduce the possibility of war, and balance regional security dynamics. On the contrary, some serious distress that the treaty may cause instability in the region also exists. By building up its ties with Russia, North Korea can minimize Chinese influence over itself, which probably can be alarming for China. This may advance North Korea taking more offensive actions, particularly against South Korea, escalating the threat of conflict in the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, the collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang in the areas of military technology and the transfer of advanced nuclear technology to North Korea is a major fear for the United States and its allies in East Asia. Regardless of the concerns of the international community and the possible negative implications of this treaty, it is evident that both states are willing to continue their partnership as both states have a mutual goal of creating a multipolar world that is both defensive and peaceful.
To conclude, the Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty has some serious implications for the East Asia balance of power. This treaty can boost regional instability, alter the geopolitical environment of the Asia-Pacific region, and cause a risk of nuclear proliferation. It might escalate the arms race in the region and probably exacerbate the security dilemma between North Korea and South Korea. Additionally, it can deteriorate international efforts for regional peace and stability and even open the way for a new Cold War in East Asia. It is clear that the future of this partnership will have significant implications for the regional as well as for the global order
