Brief Strategic Overview
The recent developments in the global and regional arena require careful attention from our policy makers on how to maneuver Pakistan’s foreign policy and military strategy from a strategic positioning standpoint. These developments include the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle East, the recent Putin-Xi summit, the standoff with Afghanistan Taliban regime and the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. The scenario is worrisome in many ways due to geo political, strategic and economic reasons. The Iranian President’s sudden death has raised many alarming questions about possible back lash and instability due to different kind of rumors coming from Iran.
President Raisi recently paid an official visit to Pakistan and was on the trip back from Azerbaijan; while the real cause of the accident/incident is not known so far, everyone is waiting for results of the investigation. In such circumstances, it is of utmost importance to be vigilant relating to who is playing around and who wants to destabilize the region even further. This challenging time is demanding that regional like-minded countries (Türkiye, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Organization of Turkic states OTS) increase cooperation, not only economically but also strategically keeping in mind the regional geo politics.
We know that these countries have already tied in under ECO bloc, whose main objective was to develop necessary infrastructure and institutions among member states to make full use of available resources in the region and provide sustainable development. It should be kept in mind that Central Asia (Formerly Turkestan) was the region of the ‘Great Game’ between the British and Imperial Russia. This British-Russian competition was significant not only because of the hydrocarbon resources in that region but also for the struggle for influence.
Elaborating another historical fact of World War II, one of Germany’s central goals was to expand southeast into the Caucasus and Central Asia (Turkestan) to gain control of the vast farmland and natural energy resources. However, having said that about main ECO functions, it needs to be stretched in terms of developing a joint military industrial complex. Due to Pakistan’s strategic location, it provides the shortest outlet to landlocked Central Asian Republics to the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and further to the rest of the world. Pakistan acts as a bridge between South and West Asia for resources of Middle East and South Asia. The Karakoram Highway is an ancient Silk Route between Afghanistan, Tajikistan, China and Pakistan and for having access to Gwadar port, this route provides the land link to Central Asian Republics through Tajikistan. Pakistani ports which are around 1700 km away from Central Asian Republics are the shortest route for an economic link between Pakistan and Central Asian Republics.
It can give boost to bilateral trade in raw material and manufactured goods. It is to be said that Pakistan has to build cultural and economic ties with Central Asian Republics which will provide a natural strategic depth to Pakistan against the hegemony of India in South Asia. Pakistan and Central Asian Republics have many things common in their societies like the religion of Islam, having a tribal system, architecture, art, design, and common TURANIC background etc. Turkestan was also named as TURAN and its worth mentioning that the mountainous northern Pakistan was the part of Greater TURAN as depicted in historical maps.
Pakistan has to play smart in such challenging circumstances because of challenges from India, terrorism from TTP and BLA using Afghan soil and CPEC related security matters that need to be accomplished as soon as possible. Few steps that must be taken short and long term by Pakistan, In order to be able to handle future challenges, are being mentioned below.
First and foremost: Pakistan must be self-sufficient and self-reliant on defence related matters and must build the military equipment industry as the backbone of the country’s economy. We can plan/reform in long terms for other commercial sectors but due to challenges and shortness of time, it is imperative to boost the military equipment related economic plan (SIFC) for bridging the vast foreign exchange gap. A strong and prosperous Pakistan will definitely be able to play a bigger role in the near or distant future.
The second milestone is to build a strong regional Muslim led military bloc that could initially start from Pakistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Organization of Turkic states OTS. Saudi Arabia and Qatar can be added in this bloc if situation and tension escalate that high as a result of Israel-Palestinian conflict. Keeping in mind the stretch of this bloc, as per my view, the Area of influence or dominion of Pakistan’s interest must be from Arabian Seas, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, Gulf of Aqaba, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Some additional details are mentioned in the section below.
The third milestone is leveraging SCO and BRICS Membership & CPEC – Powerful Tools for Foreign policy maneuvering:
Pakistan’s foreign policy is always influenced by western oriented thinking with strong interaction with NATO. Many historical examples can be given like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. But the 9/11 incident and consequent events compelled Pakistan to rethink its global engagement as far as dealing with the big powers is concerned. The opportunity came through the Gwadar Port and CPEC that opened the doors for another power axis that is China and Russia. Moreover, Pakistan became full SCO member recently, this gives clear indication to the western bloc that Islamabad is responding to strategic paradigm shift due to consequence of war on terror and unilateral expansionism.
This club has been the potential center for regional geopolitics as well as economic wellbeing under OBOR. Pakistan has the key status due to the flag ship CPEC project. This bloc has the huge potential to extend CPEC to Central Asian states, Caucasus and deep into Russia and if Iran is added, it could involve the Caspian potential. The challenge is to benefit from such a power bloc into our economic wellbeing and geo strategic gains, for example like the Kashmir issue.
The challenge here is how to maintain fair relations with NATO countries specially the United States; this enormous challenge requires an aggressive foreign policy and a very well-motivated foreign office staff. The successful caliber in foreign policy terms is to keep relations with both blocs but having a predominant tilt towards the region. It is obvious that NATO and western countries have less economic stake in Pakistan, rather than expansionism while on the other hand, China is here with a full economic agenda. Pakistan must seek full membership of BRICS to respond further to the regional and global paradigm shift. The best practice will be to use the pros and cons of both rival blocs and use them in the interests of Pakistan. Also we must keep in mind that fair practices and a stand on principles will be the ultimate strength in the diplomacy world.
Pakistan’s Dominion of Influence (Land & High Seas)
The Islamic Coalition Military Alliance has a joint operations center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. On 6 January 2017, Pakistan‘s former Chief of Army Staff, General (retd) Raheel Sharif was named the ICMA’s first commander-in chief; this stature can be leveraged by Pakistan by asking for naval logistic support from countries that are part of this alliance, for instance, the UAE is utilizing the Socotra Island as its naval logistic station and Pakistan can do the same. Only an aggressive and effective diplomacy along with strong resolve from our political and military establishment is required.
Emphasizing and repeating once again, a country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power, and without a strong Navy Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations. Sea power is not simply about what it takes to use the sea; it is also the capacity to influence the behavior of other people or things by what one does at or from the sea. Leveraging from sea power requires two components: the means to use the sea as one desires and freedom of doing things that are considered necessary to influence the actions of people on land. The classic constituents of sea power have not changed despite the rapid progression of technology and, when addressed, would eventually make Pakistan not only a naval power but a maritime power if the naval role would be clarified and enough resources would be allocated.
The area of Pakistan’s dominion of interest is going through rapid navigational transformation and we see the presence of a large number of world navies in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Dealing with such massive traffic adjacent to our extended EEZ in addition to CPEC related interests, planning at its best and utmost attention will be required for keeping a close eye on adversaries’ ambitions and activities. Also, we can observe a gradual buildup of Iranian and Saudi Navies in the North Arabian Sea that could result in an additional pain point for Pakistan as far as diplomacy is concerned. All said challenges along with the new emerging Indian Coast Guard threat requires the Pakistan Navy to adopt a multi-pronged approach for an immediate increase in its naval size preferably by doubling the submarines and destroyers, acquiring a couple of helicopter carriers, dedicated airborne early warning aircrafts, developing capability to use the Sea commercially in peace and command/control in war times, strengthening naval cooperation with the Chinese and friendly regional navies and developing the navy’s new role in combined operations with the army.
In modern naval warfare, the combined and enlarged role of long range fighter aircrafts with refueling capability and nuclear submarines could be a decisive factor for the sustainability of operations in near and distant Seas. Pakistan must move rather quickly in the next 3 to 4 years to meet these challenges and evolve an ambitious political and naval leadership for the development of sea power that could plan ahead in advance to transform the Pakistan Navy into a blue water navy in the near or distant future. Lastly, Pakistan has to diversify its coastal line ports for commercial and war management purposes. In this regard, Khor Kalmat lagoon is considered as a favorable location from a strategic standpoint. The addition of another naval base at Pakistan’s 1100 km long coastal line will help load management and diversification of the maritime resources for commercial and strategic purposes.
Handling Indian Plans in the Region
There are certain deliberate attempts from the western bloc to pursue containment of China policy in order to carry over the world’s dominancy status for the current century. Since it is visible that China is trying to emerge as a global power by presenting herself as an alternate to the current western hegemony, the western bloc along with its allies engaged in leveraging geographical advantages, are trying to limit the Chinese rise; one example is possible blockade in the South China Sea that is vital sea trade route for China. China cannot emerge as a superpower without trade with the rest of the world and the only trade route is via the South China Sea which is under the influence of the western bloc. Any measures to create hurdles in this Chinese sea route will result a catastrophic warlike situation that could lead to a bigger war theatre.
Other than the ongoing encirclement of China in the South China Sea by the western bloc, there are some other significant developments that indicate towards a possible conflict in the region including India-China skirmishes in various parts of “chicken neck corridor”, and the ongoing Chinese conflict with India in Ladakh. India is now in direct eyeball to eyeball situation with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and is being encouraged by other stake holders in the bloc to start a limited two front war thereby providing an opportunity for imposing blockade in the Strait of Malacca. India is hesitant to carry out this hot pursuit since its chicken neck corridor is directly under threat of Chinese invasion and India could well lose the seven eastern states of northeast India and other areas in the Himalayan region as a result of any direct collision with China. India will try to engage Pakistan into a limited war, which seems evident seeing Indian war preparations recently. Pakistan and China are developing CPEC which will provide an alternate route to the western part of China in case of a naval blockade in the South China Sea. The western bloc has developed a South China Sea doctrine after decades of maneuvering and having an oxygen for Chinese trade through CPEC would be tough to digest. So, the development of China-Pakistan economic corridor is one important factor in the emerging war arena.
If we see the regional strategic landscape, India is trying at various levels to set up a foot hold around Pakistan’s area of common interest. An example is India’s past investments in Afghanistan and Iran along with other hidden plans against Pakistan using 5th generation proxies. We must always keep in mind that Pakistan is just like a strong strategic balancer that is preventing Indian expansion westward because there is no other way India can expand except West. Similarly, India is trying its utmost to control naval passageways from UAE to Oman through various influential means and there is some concern that the huge economic interests of Gulf countries in India are facilitating the fulfillment of Indian ambitions. It should be clear enough that India is trying to encircle Pakistan from every side possible along with heavy naval build up to contain Pakistan’s trade.
Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must be prepared to show our muscle wherever and whenever required. We must adopt a little bit ‘bossy’ attitude if the situation so warrants and must forget an apologetic attitude. Many countries have defence or semi defence pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to IOR and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Brunei. A lot needs to be done in this domain.
Pakistan – Turkey – Azerbaijan Strategic Alignment:
Pakistan must leverage Turkey and its influence as a vital and fundamental tool of its foreign policy. Turkish – Pakistan and Azerbaijan military and naval alliance and strategic partnership along with Organization of Turkic states countries can be a rock-solid element in multiple domains keeping in mind the Middle East and Central Asian geo-politics.
I, for one, am totally convinced that Turkey is one of the friendly countries that will come to support Pakistan in time of needs. Pakistan has many tools and maneuvers in all aspects, and alignment with Turkey should be another strategic maneuver that will be beneficial not only for both countries but also for regional stability. Turkey has influence in many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment. The joint Pakistan-Turkish partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for the Middle East and IOR. Elaborating further, Turkey has plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical Ottoman Empire factor, so Pakistan must provide help to Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another. The joint development of military hardware, research and development and economic investment on each other’s side will help boost the relations and partnership between these two brotherly countries. The diplomatic stance of Turkey on Kashmir is always in favor of Pakistan. Pakistan needs to boost aggressive economic advances in order to fully leverage from SCO membership at all levels including bridging between SCO and Turkey. Due to the SCO status, Russia is not an Indian ally any more in the sense we used to observe in the past. The economic revival and boosting trade with Turkey through Iran can be one great step in this regard since we already have RCD Agreement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. This can become another corridor (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan Economic Corridor – TIPEC) and can be linked with CPEC. In this way, Eurasian opportunities will be merged with benefits of CPEC related trade. But this all depends heavily on Iran and how its government wants to run Iranian foreign policy.
Many countries have defence or semi defence pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. For example, Pakistan is taking active part in 34-nations Saudi led military Alliance; we can use this platform for selling military equipment, bilateral relations for trade, visa on arrival agreements, military training and other giant economic deals. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to IOR and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka, and Brunei. If Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan along with OTS countries join hands for development of such a strong bloc, many Muslim countries will follow and that will be the beginning of the fault lines that should exist in case any escalation takes place in the Middle East or in our dominion of influence.
Concluding Remarks
Pakistan’s strategy in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard aims to strengthen cooperation with Türkiye, Iran and Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea to create a transit corridor that might boost Pakistani import-export and commercial trade. Pakistan wants to increase its influence and presence in the Caspian Sea, considering the outstanding geopolitical role that the region plays as an interconnector between Europe and Asia, a logistic hub, and energy market. Islamabad should discuss the possibility of strengthening cooperation with Iran and Azerbaijan to pursue this strategy and this has become even more important after strategically and tactically supporting Azerbaijan in its 44 days patriotic war for Nagorno Karabakh.
The joint military industrial complex suggested above between Pakistan, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and OTS countries will be a rock-solid achievement and will be huge regional power balancer. ECO already exists and is functional, it needs to be stretched further strategically for rapidly changing regional geo politics.
