From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin, Russia has come a long way. It is insurmountable, and has defied all odds to stand tall against an encroaching Western dispensation. The hat-trick presidential victory for the former KGB Colonel at the helm of affairs since 2012 is a feast to be accounted for. Notwithstanding slurs of repression, victimisation and censorship against his opponents, Putin bagged a staggering 87 percent vote in his favour to rule Kremlin till 2030, and he did that with utmost confidence. Indeed, he was riding on a popularity wave of granting Russia its due place in the global affairs, and had succeeded in indoctrinating the philosophy of standing tall against external influences by eulogising the Red Continent’s glorious history, culture and neo-nationalism.
Lenin, the founding father of Soviet Russia in 1917 had quipped, “One must always strive to be as radical as reality itself.” Putin is exactly doing the same as he has learnt the art of defiance, and is uncompromising when it comes to ethno-lingual roots of the proud Russians. Perhaps, that is why his marching into Ukraine in February 2022 has come with political and strategic dividends, and Russia is today more united than ever.
This, however, does not come to absolve the Czar of Russia of political connivance through which he has silenced his opponents. The allegations of taking out Alexei Navalny in prison, rejecting the nomination papers of an anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin, and extermination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief, who revolted against the reigning president, are in need of explanations.
The Fifth Presidency has come at a time when the world is in a flux, and unipolarity is rapidly conceding to multilateralism. Thus, it is no surprise that Putin is leading from the front in chalking out a world order that must carry the shades of Russian influence too. Gone are the days when Brussels and Washington fomented a strategy for Europe, Asia and Africa.
Now Moscow has an axe to grind as the West is in a confused state of affairs and has not been able to come to the aid and rescue of Kiev, literally obliterating Ukraine to a client state of the Kremlin in Europe. It is not Putin but the big-wigs in the West who stirred colourful pseudo-revolutions in the name of enlarging Western Europe are to be blamed for the faux pas that Ukrainians are in.
Putin has a plan. His prime priority is to consolidate the advances in many of the Ukrainian territories, and bring the war to an end on his own terms. Kiev has been deceived by the European Union and NATO, and it is now merely on the receiving side in terms of aggression from Moscow, and peanuts from Washington.
The Czar is on a winning streak to the surprise of pundits of doom as after decimating the opposition to the footnotes of history, the president has picked up the gambit of economy and, notwithstanding, encirclement in the form of sanctions, Moscow has made great inroads with the developing economies of Asia and Africa. He is pushing a domestic agenda of nationalism and social conservatism.
With BRICS and SCO to boost as forums of multilateralism, Putin has mustered courage to travel abroad after years of staying put at home. He is gradually overcoming international legal complications, and this is a stride for his leadership.
His recent visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia are cases in point, wherein he vouched for mega-economic and defence deals with two of the American clientele states. It would be suffice to say that he has put behind decades of humiliation and economic chaos following the Soviet collapse, and has resurrected Russia.
This he managed to do by playing roulette with the West as they read him as a ‘great pro-democratic’ reformer and a ‘predictable’ leader on the world stage. But for Putin, Russia and only Russia mattered, and the rest was all window-dressing.
This new presidential term is set to advance his doctrine of sustainability, and push back an advancing Europe well behind Belarus and Ukraine. While accusing Europe of creating a “new Iron Curtain”, Putin has vowed to build a “New World Order” that would shun Western hegemony and accept Russia as an equal partner in decision-making.
This is where the dilemma for the West begins. Washington in order to remain relevant in this part of the world is wrangling for $60 billion military aid to Ukraine, but that seems to have hit monkey-wrench as the Congress is skeptical and, moreover, the fear of Donald Trump assuming the White House has kept policy-makers on tenterhooks.
Trump is on record saying that he will not broach for NATO, if European allies do not dig into their deep pockets, and that means Ukraine is on the brink.
Putin, in few of the interviews to the western media, had warned that he won’t be calculating if there is a need to nuke Europe, and warned that pushing Russia with the wall will solicit a befitting response. He elucidated that his strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness, and the new-generation hypersonic nuclear weapons are in the war module.
The Czar also reminded the NATO states of Adolf Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte’s fate, calling upon Washington and its allies to desist from any misadventure across the Urals. But the only point of consolation for the West is that Putin has assured that his country has no intention to walk over other European states.
Perhaps, Putin has learnt some valuable lessons from flopped expeditions in Afghanistan. There, however, is an exception as Putin marches into a pro ethno-lingual Ukraine, and this is where the plot thickens.
Russia is networking new alliances in the Middle East and Africa. While taking on the United States, Putin believes that he is fighting an existential battle and foresees the Middle East as the irresistible zone of competition. This is why Russia is buoying arms sales to Middle Eastern states and Iran to boost anti-Western strategic interests.
Moscow’s defence spending is on the rise, as the war with Ukraine has literally militarised the society. Russia today is one of the world’s top arms exporters, second only to the US. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that Russia was the largest exporter, before India called it quits as it went into the US camp. But in terms of petro-oil, New Delhi is still the biggest importer from Russia.
Likewise, to quote Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, exports to the Mideast are over $6bn per year. This is in addition to the sale of missiles and air defence systems. The arsenal that is at the disposal of the revolutionary regime in Tehran, including aerial drones, and those in the hands of Houthis are ‘Made in Moscow’.
As Putin tabs Damascus, Sanaa, Tehran, Tripoli, Baghdad, and Algiers as its allies, a testimony from the US National Security Council official is worth quoting. John Kirby, an NSC official, remarked that Russia is offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship (in the region and beyond).
Winston Churchill, the war-time British prime minister, had once said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” He was on the mark, and Putin is rewriting the rise of Russia at a time when the chips are down for the US, China is its biggest ally, and the developing world is eager to accept the Kremlin’s leadership.
