Pakistan is facing a severe pattern of foreign sponsored onslaught these days. The terror attacks from TTP have increased due to heavy financial support and latest assault ammunition provided by foreign agencies to TTP terror outfit. Many military personnel have embraced martyrdom and many others were injured as the result of such terrorist attacks by Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a relatively new and unknown terrorist group which claimed responsibility for the attack on the security post. The group claimed that the assault had begun with a suicide attack followed by other militants storming the security forces compound in the outskirts of Dera Ismail Khan. One prominent X based account presumably RAW operated (Baba Banaras), commented about a possible attack on DI Khan many hours before the terrorist attack that clearly indicates the active involvement of Indian RAW in the recent terrorism and violence against the state of Pakistan. The said terror outfits TTP and TJP are operating from inside Afghanistan.
An important development in progress, hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees have been asked to leave the country as Pakistan is strictly implementing the visa and documentation regime hence removing undocumented people from within its borders keeping in mind there are roughly 4 million Afghans living in Pakistan. The Pakistani government set a Nov. 1 deadline for people without legal documents, primarily Afghans, but also potentially asylum seekers from other countries such as Bengalis, Sri Lankan, Irani and Myanmar’s Rohingya, must leave, or otherwise face arrest and deportation. So far close to 200,000 Afghan refugees have already returned to their homeland. This deportation of Afghans created an additional diplomatic rift with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. It must be noted that the many Afghans in Pakistan were involved in illegal activities including dollar smuggling, vehicle theft, wheat, and rice smuggling and even petty crime. The Afghan transit trade is another source of corruption, hence hammering down Pakistan’s crippled economy.
Another form of onslaught is the missing persons March in Islamabad by a group of people from Balochistan after the death of Balach Mola Bakhsh Baloch, this has caught the attention of world media. Balochistan’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) says Balaach Mola Bakhsh, a tailor, was arrested November 20 with explosives in his possession. The CTD said he appeared in court the next day but died November 23 in a shootout between security officials and militants.
Authorities claim that while in custody, Balaach was leading CTD to the militants’ hideout and was killed when armed men fired at the CTD team; three other persons who authorities claim were insurgents also were killed in the incident. The government is negotiating with the group of marchers who have now staged a “sit in” in Islamabad. The Indian media has latched on to missing persons march as an opportunity and is spreading anti-Pakistan propaganda day and night. Once again, all major Baloch insurgencies are being sponsored from across the border from Afghanistan.
In addition to what Afghanistan and Indian RAW based terror proxies are doing against Pakistan, some social media political trolls sponsored by foreign financiers are also creating challenges for the state of Pakistan. Throughout the history of Pakistan, regardless of political chaos, wars with India, USSR and terrorism, there has been an unshaken bond between the people of Pakistan and our armed forces. Due to this strong bond, Pakistan came out of many severe challenges successfully.
The challenge of 5th generation hybrid warfare involving guerrilla tactics, using Afghan soil against Pakistan, initiating separatist sentiments with a blend of intervention by world financial institutions through loan programs were utilized along with other diplomatic maneuvers to manage Pakistan’s economic and foreign policy. Pakistan, each time, however, was able to manage the pressures emerging out of such challenges and one of the major factors was the close bond between armed forces and people of Pakistan.
The challenge Pakistan is facing now is the most lethal and optimized version of hybrid/5th generation warfare unleashed with a combination of internal and external factors. The internal factors include a crippling economy and political figures trying to create deep divisions within rank and files amongst not only our families and the society but also within armed forces. External factors are RAW sponsored terror outfits like BLA, BLF, TTP, TJP etc. and international financial institutions arm twisting is in the form of IMF installments and EU GSP (+) status.
In this new onslaught and hybrid warfare scenario, it is utmost important to create counter narrative groups for handling any anti-Pakistan or anti-Army/Establishment trend on social media. No harmful trend should be allowed to be transmitted/spread negative image under any external agenda. Also, we must counter and keep a close eye on such media anchors who ignite the situation by frequently switching their versions, posting negative trends, and acting like SM troll collaborators. It is to be noted that some (not all) media groups and personnel are one of the key tools being used in such type of warfare. The media must be controlled in Pakistan as it is being done many developed economies. The media is very well controlled and managed even in western democracies where no one can dare to comment about law enforcement agencies and armed forces. In Pakistan, the media has over stretched its limits and will have to be curbed. Some media gurus were being heavily monetized by external resources and many of them are being used against state of Pakistan. The media freedom should be cut down to size.
We need to develop counter capabilities of civil law enforcement agencies quickly and aggressive IBOs must be continued on long term basis. IBOs are proving to be extremely effective and must be extended to all other domains wherever is necessary.
Anti-Riot forces need to be developed or upgraded keeping in mind recent trend of utilizing massive mobs to pursue political achievements, so, mob management capabilities must be mastered by our law and enforcement agencies. In this regard, NACTA is supposed to lead for effective coordination amongst various agencies and should be a leading institute countering hybrid warfare tactics, but we have not seen any evidence of NACTA being in full effectiveness. This is critical step up the fight against 5th Generation warfare In recent times, we had lost an exceptional ISI Brigadier Mustafa Kamal (Shaheed) who became victim of such hybrid 5th generation warfare; he was a brave soldier. His sacrifice will never be forgotten.
However, the point of concern is that proxies are still able to maneuver in the Durand Line proximities. Although for countering 5th Generation proxies and in order to safeguard Pakistan’s interests, Pakistan finally took rightful measures and started building a dual sided fence along the 2500+ km long Pak-Afghan border. As of now, a considerable portion of the fence has been completed along with military settlements and fortified style check posts. An immediate impact was noticed when major terror attacks in Pakistan were considerably reduced.
This clearly indicates that most notorious elements were hiding in Afghanistan and it was being used a launching pad against Pakistan since 1947. However, the recent attack suggests some more strict measures must be taken to close down possible loop holes for effectiveness of the border fencing arrangement.
In addition to fence the border with Afghanistan, keeping in mind the late Brig. Mustafa Kamal incident, we must be ready to take additional steps in the coming future, this being the sole right of a country to protect its interests and safeguard its citizens from any uncertainty due to war like situation next door. We can leverage just a recent example from Turkey.
Turkey launched an assault on Syria against PKK/YPG terror groups. Turkey enforced a zone of influence about 30 km width along its border with Syria so that Turkey could be saved from ISIS, PKK and YPG terror groups. The same tactics can be exercised by Pakistan to protect its borders when the time comes. The entire world knows that Afghanistan is a war-torn country and is the real sanctuary for all kinds of extremist networks therefore acting against terrorists from inside Afghan soil is the right of a sovereign country like Pakistan. We should keep in mind that this is the world where only the powerful prevails.
I am not suggesting immediate steps as taken by Turkey and sending troops in the same way inside Afghanistan. Rather, there are ways how to establish a buffer zone and I am convinced time is approaching soon when our planners must keep this option on the table. For instance, the active or semi active-duty special flanks can be present permanently beyond Pakistan- Afghan border preventing any imminent threat towards Pakistan. These are not the steps we have not exercised previously but we have vast experience in the 1980 era Afghan war where many tactical procedures had been developed and factually utilized.
Pakistan must leverage Turkey and its influence as a vital and fundamental tool of its foreign policy. Turkish – Pakistan military and naval alliance and strategic partnership can be a rock-solid element in multiple domains keeping in mind the situation with India in IOR, Kashmir and on diplomatic fronts as far as Arab Middle East politics are concerned.
I am totally convinced that Turkey is one of the friendly countries that will come to support Pakistan in time of need. Pakistan possesses many tools and maneuvers in all aspects, and alignment with Turkey should be another strategic maneuver that will be beneficial not only for both countries but also for regional stability. Turkey has influence on many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment.
The joint Pakistan Turkish Partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for the Middle East and IOR. Elaborating further, Turkey has expansion plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical Ottoman empire factor, so Pakistan must help Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another.
The joint development of military hardware, research and development and economic investment on each other’s side will help boost the relations and partnership between these two very friendly brotherly countries. The diplomatic stance of Turkey on Kashmir is always in favor of Pakistan. Pakistan needs to boost aggressive economic advances in order to fully leverage from SCO membership at all levels, including bridging between SCO and Turkey.
Due to the SCO status, Russia is not an Indian ally any more in the sense used to observe in the past. The economic revival and boosting trade with Turkey through Iran can be one great step in this regard since we already have RCD/ECO agreement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey and can be linked with CPEC. In this way, Eurasian opportunities will be merged with benefits of CPEC related trade.
In order to be more effective, curbing the recent onslaught on Pakistan, the intelligence networks need more resources (state of the art technology tools) and rigorous training keeping in mind various internal and external fronts. It includes all levels of means starting from additional resources for defence agencies to civil law enforcement agencies.
In addition, Joint intelligence collaboration with SCO member states can be extremely helpful in handling challenges from the region. This collaboration will be of further benefit when additional economic activities like CPEC, North South Gas Pipeline will be matured in next few years hopefully if hurdles somehow will be removed.
Pakistan has to play a key role in the future events that will occur regionally as well as globally. There are certainly spiritual dimensions that exist that dictate Pakistan Armed Forces to get ready with maximum deterrent and optimum power to handle requirements of such divine events. The creation of Pakistan is itself a miracle during the sacred month of Ramadan and the cold-blooded large-scale killing of migrants in 1947 is the baseline and spiritual backbone of the ideology of Pakistan’s armed forces.
We cannot forget our migrant martyrs of 1947 and if Pakistan is sustaining so many difficult problems throughout the course of its history, it is also due to the memories and hidden prayers of Shaheeds of the 1947 Partition. This is the spiritual dimension that cannot be quantified by any foreign analytical study.
We must never forget what is cooking in our neighborhood in the form of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) as a rise of Hindu extremism. RSS Akhund Bharat ideology is visible to everyone and they openly say that the division of the sub-continent was not right and one day this division will be eliminated.
This clearly means that Pakistan and Bangladesh are both still in their minds to become part of greater sub-continent under RSS rule. Their problem is that Pakistan is the main roadblock in their way.
RSS leaders believe that once Pakistan is dealt with, Bangladesh has no power to stand against India and it will be overcome/captured in no time. That i’s why their negative efforts and evil energies are focused towards Pakistan.
The Indian hybrid warfare tactics against Pakistan were exposed by the apprehension of serving Indian Naval Officer Kulbhushan Jadav in Balochistan area and the level/quantity of details that emerged as a result of investigation from Mr. Jadav are quite alarming. It seems India is working at state policy level to weaken Pakistan and any project or plan for Pakistan’s future progress like CPEC is not acceptable to Indian establishment.
The point here is that this is only possible when one predominant set of political ideology takes a major role incorporating this ideology at all levels of state sectors like the military, police, judiciary and in this case, the RSS has successfully done that and now is very much focused on its expansionist plan westward.
This is exactly where scholars indicated about the spiritual dimension in terms of a divine battle and well-known scholars like Dr. Israr believes that Allah Almighty may have chosen Pakistan and its armed forces to play a key role in such divine events. If we compare RSS developments in India, then the puzzle can be solved easily.
This is the reason that India is on the forefront to destabilize Pakistan in all fronts including hybrid tactics, separatist training, guerilla attacks on armed forces and civilians etc.
At the and I will emphasize and humbly request all political stake holders to sit together and agree on an economic agenda and implement a governance model developed by Global Space for Geo Economics & Strategy (GSGES) team. We have seen above that once all stake holders were on same page, we saw success.
So, for the sake of Pakistan’s economy, it is utmost important to develop and agree upon an economic agenda and execute it with honest governance without thinking of personal political gains. In the foreign policy domain, it is critical to adopt such an approach if we are to reap benefits of both blocs via a balanced policy keeping in mind economic and strategic interests.
I am hoping for political harmony in Pakistan because this is the only way forward along with agreement on a minimum agenda and that must involve a greater consensus on improving Pakistan’s economy. This is the parallel measure we must work to achieve in order to curb consistent onslaughts on Pakistan.
