Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is setting the agenda of 2024 United States’ presidential polls. The acumen and wisdom he possesses is guiding him to build a modern and progressive state in one of the most volatile regions of the world. And that demands perpetual peace. Quite aware of that desire and necessity, the Saudi ruler has thrown a Russian roulette, but this time the Americans are on the receiving end. In an earnest endeavour on the part of US President Joseph Biden to normalize ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, the Prince has responded by asking for something less than the moon. But his wish-list has put the Democrats in a fix, and even the Republicans are found scratching their heads.
Riyadh has reportedly asked for: more advanced arms, a NATO-like security umbrella, and assistance for a civilian nuclear program. The instant outcome is sleepless nights in Washington D.C., and anxiety at its heights in Israel. The Saudis are convinced that apart from state-of-the-art ammunition and gadgets nothing more will come their way. But they are sharp to read in future, and have killed two birds with a single stone. One – in between the lines, apart from the stated luxuries, it is certain that the Kingdom will ask for Palestinian Statehood if it even nods to sign on the dotted lines of the Abraham Accord-phase II. Two – any overtures on the part of White House convincing the Royals to distance from China has been torpedoed beforehand by keeping the option of enrichment program open with Beijing. This astute diplomacy is a masterpiece of upholding national interests in an era of emerging multilateralism, and has literally cornered the State Department to keep its fingers crossed.
Thomas Edward Lawrence, the ‘Lawrence of Arabia,’ the British archeologist and spy (died 1935) — renowned for his role in the Arab Revolt against the Ottoman Empire, rightly stated, “That’s all right. We’re not particular.” Prince Salman has, perhaps, read history in the concurrent context. He knows that not much can be extracted from the Zionist state, despite the fact that his country has been very humble when it comes to doling out concessions in the form of airspace permission and other business deals, and that too without formal diplomatic recognition. That is why the minimum that Riyadh can get from Israeli right-wing is shared intelligence along with sophisticated spyware, and Area Defence Missile system, and that also under the table. That too is most welcome for a state that is striving to emerge from its yesteryears’ conservativeness to a hi-tech polity for its 35 million populace.
So what is the deal? Is there one? Yes, certainly there are a number of sweeteners for the Saudis if they go on to bless legitimacy of recognition to the Jewish state in the Muslim heartland of the Middle East. Riyadh’s neighbouring Arab compatriots were quite compassionate as they shook hands with Israel, and in doing so the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco are now recognised as strategic partners of the Neo-Global order. Turkey, Egypt and Jordan are other important states that bear an olive branch for Israel in one hand, and at the same time are seen crossing swords when it comes to survival of the fittest. But for Saudi Arabia, the choice is easier said than done. Prince Salman is walking a tightrope, and is closely keeping an eye on the fissures in the occupied Palestinian territories. One more Intifada at this time, as Gaza and West Bank are simmering with socio-political suffocation, can tip the balance in the Kingdom’s favour, pitching his merit to negotiate easing of ties with Israel at an all-time high.
Let’s see what the Biden administration has to offer to the charming Prince. Before we scribble a list of probabilities, it must be borne in mind that the octogenarian diplomat-cum-politician swept the presidency on a hate-Saudi agenda. The dilemma is that Biden in the 2020 campaign vowed to ‘punish’ Saudi Arabia for its so-called undefined ‘transgression.’ Not much was said as to how and in what form he would settle down with retribution with one of the richest oil states in the world. But in no time after assuming his office, the Democrat found himself at odds with his electioneering fists and was on terms with Muhammad bin Salman and his ambitious 2030 Vision.
The US intention, perhaps, now is to somehow derail the Kingdom from its newfound honeymoon with the Chinese and the Iranians. The only way out there to win over the Kingdom is to make it an allied-ally by ensuring that both Israel and Saudi rub shoulders and become friends. That is a demanding task, and cannot be subscribed without promising some bounties on the Two-State solution. This is where the quick-fix is all about, as it is neither easy to clot the cordiality with the Red Dragon, which brings with it billions of dollars of business and a jiff of fresh air from the Caspian state of Iran in the form of a thaw, and not is it possible to make the rightists in Knesset (Israeli Parliament) kneel down for a deal with Saudis.
Biden, nonetheless, is in need of a jump-start for his re-election, and that can only come by appeasing the powerful Jewish vote bloc in the United States. President Trump is riding high on his popularity, irrespective of the fact that he is bogged down in severe existential litigation of his career.
The Abraham Accord is his legacy, and it has at least ushered in an era of serenity and semblance in the Mideast, as more and more clientele Arab and Muslim states are waiting in the wings to mend fences with Israel for a blank-cheque appropriate of their stature. The only two odds out are Iran and Saudi Arabia in the entire region, and Pakistan being the last of the Bohemians.
The question is: will Biden be able to cross the bridge and make Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prince MBS smile and wave on the podium? Absolutely Not Sure! Then what is the fuss all about? It is all about countering China’s strides in the region, and somehow pushing it to the wall by making Saudis snub the rapprochement with Revolutionary Iran, and at the same time offer a cold shoulder to the Red Dragon. The Saudis have come to value their new fondness with Iran, and both are building inroads in each other’s hardened societies. The largesse of Riyadh to lift some of the curbs on religious rituals of Shia Muslims inside Saudi Arabia has opened a floodgate of goodwill. Likewise, the clergy-laden establishment of Iran is rewinding on many of the dictates that called for publicly condemning the House of Saud in yesteryears.
On the other hand, China is a big-ticket bonanza for the Saudis as it brings with it not only technological knowhow but also a format of get-going projects in Saudi Arabia and abroad. Moreover, it is one of the biggest purchasers of crude, and comes with the assurance of turning the conflict zone of Hormuz into a corridor of peace between the two biggest Muslim entities in the region. Moreover, China’s track record of staying aloof from meddling in internal affairs and looking the other way round when it comes to human rights record is an added attraction for Saudis fondness with Chinese. Whereas, the US plays to the gallery and singles out Riyadh, and at the same time turns a blind eye towards Israeli blatant wrongdoings.
Last but not least, Biden or even Trump are found too apologetic when it comes to dictating the rightwing leadership in Israel. It is almost next to impossible to convince Benjamin Netanyahu, or even Yair Lipid, to give up on Jewish settlements in the Occupied West Bank, and come to terms in the form of a territorial solution. Rest of it is all about window-dressing only when Israel is under pressure either on the home front, or on the receiving end in form of condemnations after its off-and-on misadventures in Gaza and elsewhere in the region.
Thus, there is no breakthrough in sight for Biden as long as he plays fiddle to the Jewish conglomerates, and refuses to call a spade a spade in Israel. Yet, there are overtures for normalizing ties, and that are in need of being deciphered on their merits, and not on a template of opportunism. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently told Italian newspaper, La Repubblica, that “…I certainly believe that the peace agreement between us and the Saudis will lead to an agreement with the Palestinians.” This was one of the most optimistic dossiers that goes on to relate to a repressed nation in conjunction with the richest of the rich in the world in terms of striking a deal.
Likewise, in an interview with ‘The Atlantic,’ the Saudi de facto Louis-XIV, remarked, “We do not view Israel as an enemy, but rather as a potential ally.” This hint at engaging with Israel is at the root-cause of a hyperbolic euphoria, and can only be realised if the US and Israel come with a bag of bounties, and go on to lift the yoke of imperialism from Palestinians. Anything from a diluted statehood to legitimate suzerainty over occupied lands will be welcome, if Saudi Arabia has to be won over. This face-saving for Riyadh is a must, as it bends back and forth to find itself in the Zionist good books.
As far as Biden is concerned, his administration has laid down a comprehensive strategy for erecting new covenants in the Mideast through its National Security Strategy 2022. It simply says that “…a more integrated Middle East that empowers our allies and partners will advance regional peace and prosperity, while reducing the resource demands the region makes on the United States over the long term.” This is in need of elucidation, and both Israel and Saudi being indispensable partners of Washington will interpret in their own national spheres. Both will hold it by their teeth and shall be unrelenting in making concessions that are seen as a sell-off. This is where some statesmanship is desired, and it remains to be seen who will walk the extra few steps to reach out to the adversary.
If a pacification is ever desired, the US must come down to the region with a bagful of startling offerings: A permanent peace deal with the Arabs, Statehood for Palestinians, and a thaw with Iran. Only then can Saudi Arabia be made to walk the carpet for the Abraham Accord-II. Time for Washington to do it now, before seeing it one day happen at the hands of China. The US leadership is up for a test, and Muhammad bin Salman may have the last laugh.
