The Economic Potential of Pakistan Challenges and Opportunities

(Ikram Sehgal - Co-Chairman, Pathfinder Group Speech at Future Fest 2023 (Lahore)

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What should I speak to an audience that is already very informed and very precocious and far more learned or educated than I could ever be. So I thought to myself that I am going to first speak about Pakistan and I will take the liberty of telling you a little bit of how I have benefited from Pakistan.

A lot of people come to me and say that we are in trouble, we are in deep economic trouble and we are going through a horrendous economic situation. However, just like this meeting I was addressing about 100 CEOs, the top CEOs about a month back and I asked them to tell me which company has not made a profit during the last year and every company did well except one or two and a fair number of these were foreign companies in Pakistan, and in fact they had made windfall profits.

Then I asked them which of the banks have not made exorbitant profits, except for one or two Banks, and that also because the current capital adequacy ratio (CAR) was that they had a problem, but every Bank had made a profit. Similarly, the textile, steel, and construction industries in fact anybody you would talk about had made a profit. Then I said where in the world do you have a country that can virtually or actually feed itself? We have bumper stocks of wheat, mostly 24- 25 million tons on an average, we have many other thing except for edible oil which has to be imported, I think you’re almost self-sufficient in everything, sugar, etc.

Our problem actually came from Farm to Market, what the farmer got was far lower than what the prices were available in the market, so there was a big gap which was covered by hoarders and profiteers, and a good name for them is ‘Middlemen’ so we really had no check or balance to control those prices and that is why that mehngai as we understand it, goes.

You know of course that another related factor to mehngai is our Foreign Exchange, let me tell you I run, among my other enterprises, I have one of the largest armored car companies in the country, Wackenhut which moves cash from Banks to Banks and fills the ATM machines, etc.

One of the things we do is carry foreign exchange from one city to another, so when whenever I look at it a day earlier I know the foreign exchange parity with Pakistan rupee is going to go down, I know that because the Pak rupee will climb from 220 to 225 or 230 I know that it will go like that and I also know when it will go on the reverse side, down from 220 to 215 to 210.

How do I know that? It is when we carry foreign exchange from Karachi to Peshawar we know this is going to Afghanistan, and when it comes from Peshawar to Karachi, we know the reverse side; very simple, the kiss formula, “Keep it Simple Stupid” but we actually know that Afghanistan is surviving on Pakistan’s economy, at the cost of Pakistan’s economy.

Take our atta prices, Afghanis like to have fine Atta, most of our flour Mills make coarse Atta, except for certain mills in the Rahimyar Khan sector which make fine Atta. About 4 to 5 million tons of wheat are crushed and goes to Afghanistan with fine Atta, so when the Atta goes to Afghanistan, the prices of Atta goes up. Sugar of course is another story but I don’t want to go to the National Accountability Bureau but I feel that some of these people should be taken to task and must not be allowed to politicize, they way they have hoarded and manipulated the price of sugar.

What I am trying to say is that we have the second largest copper and gold reserves in the world, the SECOND largest, we have the third largest coal reserves in the world, other than coal we have the fourth largest cotton industry in the world, we are the fifth largest milk producing country in the world, the sixth largest rice producing country in the world, seventh largest wheat producing country in the world and we have the nuclear know how and we have the means to deliver them and yet here we are, in a bind. Now I have been given that five minute warning but I am going to take the liberty of going on to 10 minutes, I am not going to stand here and say have general elections and have this or have that.

That is for the politicians and the administration to work out among themselves and the courts, but one thing is very necessary for internal security and the economy; I repeat to you again, internal security and the economy and that is Local Bodies. Start with the internal security, if you have Local Bodies and any stranger that comes into a consul area they would know.

A terrorist needs money, he needs safe houses and he needs organized crime – at the end of the day, all these things they have to before they launch an attack, they have to base themselves. Now if he comes to a particular area, it takes time for an intelligence agency to find out about them but if their Local Bodies are functioning, any stranger who comes in with their unusual activity will be noticed, so it is very necessary to have Local Bodies for internal security. The second thing is for the economy. The Local Bodies can tell you what is the price of things on the shelves, what is the price of Tandoor Roti, etc and if you have buffer stocks you can always move that into that area to keep the price down now.

There is no politics in it, it’s a requirement and may I say that participatory democracy requires Local Bodies. In fact anybody who wants to get elected to the Provincial Assembly or the National Assembly must first get elected at the local level.

I have a company called Virtual Remittance Gateway. The World Bank Financial Inclusion Scheme requires that 80% of Pakistan’s adult population that does not have bank accounts, should have bank accounts, moreover only 18% of women have bank accounts. So about 8 or 10 years ago we sat down and started making a Middle Ware.

Where in the world was this done? In Pakistan, in this country by Pakistanis. It is not no subtle exists anywhere in the world, we are today talking to OIC, the IDB, and saying to them that we want to do something for the poor countries, the poor Muslim countries so why don’t you work with us?

We are working with people, we have talked to people, in the UNDP, they have recognized and the World Economic Forum has put us in the Edison Alliance as Lighthouse Country, can you imagine that out of the 150 countries in the World Economic Forum, there are only two Lighthouse Countries and in the next batch, Insha’Allah Pakistan will be included.

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