The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement has always remained an impracticable concept in the politics of the Muslim world, where the governments of both states have developed extremely incompatible and contrasting stands against each other. Both states developed strict competing behaviors and translated their competition into hostile diplomatic interactions. The diplomatic hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a complex issue having various historical, geopolitical, and religious factors. They have been engaged in a regional power struggle for decades, vying for influence in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world. In other words, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had strained relations for many years, due primarily to their differences in religious and political ideologies and their geopolitical competition for regional dominance. However, in recent times both countries have shown certain signs of willingness to improve their relationship. Signifying a new chapter in the history of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic ties, the two leaders agreed to resume their diplomatic ties, thanks to China brokering the deal for restoring multidimensional ties. A meeting held on March 10, 2023 between the state officials of Iran and Saudi Arabia laid the foundations of a new era in which the two governments will try to ease their historical tensions with the help of China.
The Chinese-brokered deal has provided a chance for the two governments to begin to start enjoying the benefits of cooperative bilateralism. This is the start of a new era that has enables the Iranian and Saudi governments to take initial steps for their broader cooperative bilateralism. The Chinese government is keenly interested in maintaining peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia because China’s relationship with both States is purely a matter of business and trade while having little strategic impact on global power politics. China has historically maintained good relations with both countries and has sought to maintain a peaceful balance between them, believing that initiating peaceful ties would reduce the enduring rivalry between the two economic powers of the Muslim world. China is a major buyer of oil buyer and Saudi Arabia and has invested heavily in infrastructure projects in both countries. China has also sought to deepen its ties with Iran through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to promote economic cooperation and connectivity across Eurasia. Given its strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, China sees Iran as an important hub for the BRI. At the same time, China has sought to strengthen its ties with Saudi Arabia, a major regional power and a key player in the global oil market. Seeking to expand its influence in the Gulf region, including its investment in developing the port of Gwadar in Pakistan, will provide China with a strong trading foothold in the Arabian Sea. In short, China’s relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia is characterized by a delicate balancing act, as it seeks to maintain good relations with both countries while pursuing its economic and strategic interests in the region.
There are various challenges to the Chinese quest for normalizing ties between both blocks of the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The governments of both states are fundamentally not in a position to give up their traditional standing against each other, which is deeply inherited in their decades-long history of animosity. The fate of the agreed deal depends on certain challenges which need serious attention from Chinese leaders because the launching of diplomatic cooperation between two hostile nations cannot be divorced from history, which has witnessed a multileveled confrontation between Tehran and Riyadh. On the one hand, one cannot deny the appreciation of Chinese efforts for the peace and stability of the Middle East, on the other hand, the future of this diplomatic normalization could not be spared from the following challenges.
1. The optimism attached to the Chinese-brokered deal is deeply rooted in their enduring rivalry and the structural divisions of the Arab world. While the Chinese vision for reducing tensions is a very appreciable effort, the division of the Arab states
created by both power centers of the Middle Eastern region is a serious challenge. This challenge is inherited in the historical and religious patterns of the Arab world, and can be quite difficult to address in the presence of strict ideological division of the Muslim countries.
2. The ideological confrontation needs serious attention from any mediating power because the challenge of ideological division is based strictly on contrasting religious descriptions with incompatible behaviour of the two powers. Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni Muslim, while Iran is primarily Shia Muslim, this has led to tensions between the two countries over the years. The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia has its roots in the historical split between Sunni and Shia Islam, and this has led to a competition for influence and power within the Islamic world, with each country seeking to promote its own interpretation of Islam and gain the allegiance of other Muslim countries. This sectarian difference has cemented intra-religious clashes and has made it difficult to bring both regional players of the Muslim world on a single page.
3. The de-escalation in the mainstream confronting areas such as Yemen where the Houthi conflict in domestic politics has resulted in spillover effects on the politics of the Arab world where Tehran and Riyadh are the leading players and potential competitors. In recent years, the rivalry between them has been fueled by their involvement in conflicts across the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Yemen. Iran supports the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi Arabia
has backed the Opposition in Syria. Iran has supported the Houthi rebels in Yemen, while Saudi Arabia has led a coalition of Arab states that fight against the Houthis. The contesting geostrategic calculations of both states are the actual threats to the efforts of peace for the Middle Eastern region.
4. In contrast to US-Iran hostility, Saudi Arabia has strong diplomatic ties with the United States and this aspect cannot spared from Chinese emerging role in the group of Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, and the US, a major oil consumer, have developed strong trading and strategic bilateral collaboration. The US has also provided military support to Saudi Arabia, including weapons sales and training to its armed forces. On the other hand, China has also sought to strengthen its relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly in energy and infrastructure. China is the world’s largest oil consumer and has been increasing its imports from Saudi Arabia in recent years. In this scenario, the American broader Middle Eastern policy and the role of US bilateral ties with the Muslim states are important factors to consider.
5. The Israel factor cannot be overlooked in the changing political dimensions of the Arab world because the Israeli dream of creating a broader anti-Iran alliance consisting of different Muslim countries has received a major setback. After all, Iranian
hostility with Israel is an irrefutable truth. However, the Saudi willingness to reopen its diplomatic ties with Iran has provided much-needed legitimacy to Tehran in the Arab world, which would encourage other Muslim nations to follow in Saudi Arabia’s
footsteps. In this way, more support towards Iran in the Muslim world will disturb the Israeli strategic calculations, which will spawn various challenging developments for the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement.
While keeping in view the scenario mentioned above, it could be maintained that the foreign relations of the three states, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, will decide the future of this deal because of the strong cooperative ties between Saudi Arabia and the United States and the emerging economic relations between Iran and China are important factors in the politics of Middle East. The Chinese appearance in Middle Eastern regional affairs and its effort to bring the two hostile governments to a negotiation table is Beijing’s attempt to become a prominent player in the politics of the energy-rich region of the world; this will produce several opportunities for China. The deal has activated the role of China in the very complex Middle Eastern politics, it has considerable potential for providing more business and trading opportunities to China, and the involvement of the Saudi and Iranian government in the Chinese global economic plans will also enable Beijing to benefit from the two main oil powers of the world. The breakthrough in the Tehran-Riyadh bilateral relations has proved to be a major development that has surprised the whole international community. The power centers of the international system consisting of great powers have started recalculating their global geostrategic priorities generally and the Muslim world particularly. It is widely believed that the diplomatic truce between two hostile powers of the Muslim world has potential for reformatting the contemporary politics of the Arab nations, parallel to augmenting the role of China in the great power politics. Presently, the international community, including the United States has welcomed the deal, but the success of this Chinese-brokered deal depends heavily on what Washington’s future responses might be. To say that alarm bells are ringing in the US would be an understatement because Washington’s policy making circles have translated the emerging Chinese economic engagement as a serious threat to American standing in the world. The deal between the state officials of Iran and Saudi Arabia is actually a matter of trilateral interaction of three states, nonetheless it has sent a message to the world’s leading power circles that the Chinese government could also mediate rivalries between various archrival nations in different regions. In this way, it is more appropriate to maintain that the improving diplomatic communication between Iranian and Saudi is expected to reduce the
conventional confrontation while encouraging both to accept China as an impartial mediator and an effective dispute-settler in the international system. Thus, one can contend that the future of Iran-Saudi rapprochement cannot be defined without estimating the prevailing scenario of China-US confrontation because the strong Iranian ties with China and close Saudi relations with the United States connect the regional politics of the Middle East to the designs of international power politics.
