It is estimated that over fourteen thousand people have lost their lives in the Ukraine conflict although the number could be higher. What began in February of this year has no end in sight and with every passing day, it is altering the geo-strategic and political landscape of the world. 1918 is the year when the first World War ended, 1945 is when the second World War came to an end, 1991 is the year the Soviet Union came to an end, like all these iconic years with events that had far reaching effects, 2022 is also one such year. The Ukraine war has split the world into many parts, causing alliances and transforming the power politics of the world. The impact of the Ukraine war is incalculable, at least for the present time, which makes it all the more significant to consider and review, in order to realize what has happened and what is to come in the next decades and beyond.
In order to gauge the impact of the Ukraine war, it is worth looking at its causes. The war in Ukraine is based on the nationalism of Russia. It exists in the fact that Russia still considers itself a great power that can challenge the whole of European Union in a military conflict. It is a grim reminder of the Cold War and the Iron Curtain. Secondly, in a traditional fashion, Russia has always considered Ukraine as its back-water, a bulwark against the Western aggression. Any lapse in managing this bulwark means that the threat of Western democracy has reached Russian soil. So, the war in Ukraine sounds like a war because of the NATO alliance, but in truth it is the mentality of the Russian Government to never allow Western troops near its borders, not even inside Ukraine. The third main factor in the Ukraine War is the g overnance model of Putin and how he wants to be remembered. Putin is the image of Russian confidence. He is the epitome of Russian power, and it would be a complete failure if he could not prevent NATO influence near Russian borders in his reign. So, it is a matter of personal vendetta and a way to maintain an image of authority and power and until these issues are not addressed, the war in Ukraine will rage on and even if it comes to a temporary halt, it will always come back.
Another noticeable impact of the Ukraine war is Ukraine itself as a country. In the beginning of the war, it was considered that Ukraine would crumble before the Russian army in a week or so. But that has not been the case. The people of Ukraine, under the austere and confident leadership of Zelensky have proved their mettle. There have been heavy causalities on both sides, which was not expected. The Russians have faced stiff resistance and with technological support from the EU and USA, the balance of war is always tilting. This war has sown the seed of Ukrainian nationalism for all times to come. This year, a small nation has proved that with the right approach, intelligence and confidence, even a super-power can get bogged down in a military struggle.
On the other hand, Russia has seen the full brunt of the war. It has been isolated in the world powers. Russian economy is in shambles and its currency is under serious devaluation. The imports and exports of Russia have been disrupted and many Russian banks are looking towards default and foreign assets of all Russian diplomats, politicians and businessmen have been seized. The supplies of food and fuel are facing sanctions, and Russia has to look towards countries like China and India for financial survival. All this is in addition to the cost of the war. It is evident that Russia cannot linger on with this war for long, and the cost of war has a heavy price for the people of Russia as well. On the social side, Russian channels have been banned across the Western world and there is censure for Russian personnel and even tourism is affected. Many countries have refused to play regional and international games with Russian athletes. There is pressure on all sides for Russia. This points towards incentive to make peace and make amends as soon as the war is over.
Another critical feature of the Ukraine war is the unification of the Western World and particularly the European union in the face of the Russian attack. The European Union was in a fix after Brexit but all that has changed after the Ukraine war as there is enhanced co-operation and collaboration between European countries, especially on politics, security, regionalism, trade and representation in the United Nations. Russia has united the European Union like never before. All previous disagreements and minor cracks have been replaced with regionalism and gearing up for Russia. Also, in the United Nations, Russia has not seen any resistance from nations like India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, China, Brazil and other middle-income countries, which point towards the fact that Russia is primarily a problem of Europe and the Western and not other nations. The new narrative in international politics is, “West versus the rest”. It is also called the new Security Order of the world.
The Ukraine war has given a new meaning to regionalism. In the past few years there were waves of protectionism across the world. As Trump began building walls there were trade wars in different parts of the world, the Russia Ukraine war has redirected the world towards regionalism instead of globalization. The same method is being adopted by China. Regional connectivity and peace are more critical than global connections. Europe is focusing on regional security while China is emphasizing regional connectivity and reliance through CPEC and OBOR. Similarly, Russia is securing its regional assets in the form of the Ukraine war. And now, the United States, after exit from Afghanistan is focused on containing Russia and China, before they become a threat and in the case of a military conflict, a situation like Ukraine arises, yet again.
Last week, U.S House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made an official visit of Taiwan which attracted a furious response from China, which considers Taiwan to be a province of mainland China. This move is an open reminder to the Non-Western world that it is the West that makes the rules and holds the way forward in politics and power. The next few months will be crucial in deciding the fate of this strategic move which can result in another war that can escalate into a World War. The New World Order might be a by-product of the new world security order. There is immense polarization in the world and it is not difficult to calculate that every nation, big or small, may or may not be forced to take sides. The fate of millions rests with what happens next. As the whole of humanity looks on, the shadows of war and conflict are in the offing. The past is never a good predictor of the future but what can be said with surety is that if there is a full scale war between the great powers of the world, it will be much more destructive than any other war in the history of humanity.
