With over 75 days of active warfare over Ukraine, the conflict is shaping up to be a flashpoint for the entire world with the threat of escalation at any point in time. The United States and the Western Allies initiated this war but now they are without answers while Ukraine suffers. Russia insists on victory and Putin has made the war in Ukraine a matter of survival. While this conflict has turned heads around the world, the real competition is out of focus. Powers of the world are re-aligning and it is getting dangerously unpredictable. It is imperative that key questions be decided at the appropriate forums, what are the options in Ukraine and what are the conditions for a peaceful solution, and all else fails, what are the probable consequences of this prolonged war.
The mainstream media and social platforms are being grossly misguided and inclined towards agendas of the Western world. The war in Ukraine is not an invasion like the invasion of Europe by Adolf Hitler, although, it is being made to look that way. The invasion of Europe by Germany in World War II was a war of superiority and political philosophy, one based on racial and linguistic backgrounds. It is intellectually and factually incorrect to compare the invasion of Ukraine with such instances as Nazi Germany. Adversely, this war was instigated by Europe and NATO countries. The Soviet Union was dissolved but the threat of Western interference and take over of Moscow still looms large in Russia. Membership of Ukraine in NATO is what cascaded the present conflict. Putin is not invading Ukraine, he is defending his borders from Western boots on the ground, with the availability of forces of many nations and their armaments superior to that of Russia. If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russians would be outnumbered in terms of forces and influence in the region. The economic ties would be further insult to Russian concerns in the region as a NATO ally would be part of anti-Russia commercial activities in terms of sanctions on trade and economic ties. So, this in turn is a war for survival for Russia, and although, it looks like an offensive war, it is only a counter-measure taken by Moscow towards NATO and European diplomatic moves in the region. One thing is certain, Putin will not back down.
Russia is escalating the war in Ukraine. On the other side, Ukraine is receiving massive support from the West with huge shipments of rockets, drones, anti-tank shells, intelligence and supplies of all kinds. These measures are frustrating the Russian forces in the area. Putin had to resort to changing the General in command.
All with the view that the war must come to halt, and Kiev conquered. In extreme circumstances, Putin has warned that if any foreign troops are found in Ukraine, it will be dealt with a massive military response and to the extent that Moscow will resort to using nuclear weapons to deal with the threat. Joe Biden was aware of the stakes, and at the very outset, he made it clear that the US would not be sending any troops or forces on the ground in the Ukraine crisis. But the matter of supplying military intelligence and equipment is making the war much more complicated than expected for the Russian army, and a slight miscalculation from any side can lead to nuclear or conventional escalation. The Russian army, it must be kept in view, is capable of wreaking massive damage to not only Ukraine but to neighboring European powers as well. The Red lines in this war are not clear and the war is going beyond its limits for both Russia and Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine is hurting not only Ukrainians but Russians as well. The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse and trade has taken a massive hit. The local industry has lost 35% of its business turn over and the situation is getting worse. Sanctions are hurting the survival of the poorest sections of the Russian society and criticism over Ukraine is being seen in the social media, but as pointed out earlier, Putin has made this a war of survival and not of expansion or conquest. The demands have been made clear and Moscow is ready to make all sacrifices required. But it still doesn’t eliminate the fact that Moscow is under pressure, and any attempt to change the course of the war would be met with an aggressive response. Putin cannot afford to lose this war; Russia cannot withstand another failed military campaign just like Soviet Union could not withstand the failed campaign in Afghanistan. In short, it is a do or die situation for Russia and any interference has the potential to cause a massive response, one that could involve disasters on a global scale.
The Ukraine war was instigated by NATO countries, but the alternatives and the situation is hurting them in ways they could not have imagined. In Europe, countries are diverting huge amounts of funds from social welfare and development to security and military budgets. Trade has taken a down turn and stock markets are crashing. Fuel and food prices are giving rise to the worst inflation, which is showing up as public unrest and unemployment. On the other hand, the United States has lost focus on China. Russia has not been an economic competitor and a threat to the United States since the end of 1990s but China is countering US influence in every sphere, but with the war in Ukraine, all eyes and foreign policy are aimed at Russia. The United Nations, NATO and even the financial institutions are targeting Russia, whereas the real competition China has gone out of focus. China is taking advantage of the situation and fostering ties on all sides of the region. Europe and Middle East have become more and more close to China than ever before. In Asia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran are the most promising trade and economic partners of China. The OBOR project and the revival of the Silk Route through Gwadar and Chahbahar is set to overshadow the whole of European trade combined. The Ukraine crisis is a diversion that the United States cannot afford, and yet, has no solution to end it. The options are limited and the tolerance is running out.
The Russians are not going to retreat and Europe will never allow Russian forces to overlook their borders from Poland. And any interference in order to decide the war in either party’s favor can result in a larger conflict with the potential of using Weapons of Mass Destruction. If only Ukraine had nuclear weapons it would have changed the outlook of the whole war. But now, horns are locked and the red lines are blurred. Perhaps the answer lies in the sacrifice of the weak, the acceptance by Ukraine to play a moderate and neutral role, becoming a buffer between Western Europe and a powerful Russia that is still a military might, even when it has lost its glory days of the Soviet Union. There is no obvious solution and the options are becoming more and more dangerous by the day. And as the war rages on, the toll in terms of killing of the innocent people of Ukraine and the havoc it is playing with the domestic and global economy is atrocious.
