Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Countering the Doomsday Scenario!

The icy wind blowing into the faces of Pakistanis for all the wrong reasons is because of the crass personal motives of corrupt politicians trying to avoid jail. Certainly, the economic situation is dire and inflation is on the rise, but this is a fact across the world, can this government be blamed for the spiking of oil prices and the Corona pandemic straining the exchequer with all the corona-related expenses. And now the Russia-Ukraine situation with the sanctions taking effect on combatants and non-combatants alike? Inflation has reached unprecedented heights even in the US.

The irony is that public memory is short, the opposition parties asking for Imran’s head have during their respective turns in power ruined the economy, creating the burden of loans whose servicing with more loans burdened this govt from the moment it came to power. When loans are taken for consumptive purposes and much of the state money goes into private pockets by the way of corruption an unmanageable amount of debt service cripples the state finances. Besides paying due instalments on loans, this government has added to the loan burden. Among the major reasons is certainly a failed tax system, the failure to simplify it and collect taxes from the vast majority who do not pay direct taxes. That paying tax is not a burden but a patriotic act escapes the realization of most Pakistanis. And while the state is living on borrowed money, the rich are getting richer through corruption. That money not only buys those good lawyers but also many corrupt judges put into place despite checks and balances by the political mafias when they were in power. These judges inserted into the judiciary system owe their loyalty to the persons/ parties that brought them into power rather than to the rule of law and justice. Because of the compromises made by the judiciary those denied British visa because of their corrupt practices not only are free to live and continue doing their evil acts in Pakistan but also manipulate govt functionaries (and function) at will. Maybe the NAB can make a list of those who have been given a house and/or a plot by this man?

The so-called democracy of Pakistan has been subverted to such an extent that the present political system is only a camouflage to serve the needs of the rich and corrupt. The fight against corruption started with Imran Khan’s ascent to power has therefore shown little success, in fact many of his other plans have also been subverted, Dr. Ishrat Hussain’s very thoroughly developed plan to reorganize the bureaucracy has not been implemented due to the resistance in the bureaucracy of those who fear to be relegated or asked to leave for not coming up to the standards required especially in the higher echelons of the organization. Those citing the Constitution do so tongue-in-cheek, they give a damn about the same Constitution while furthering their own interests by misuse of power and looting of the State’s till. Corruption frankly is a gross violation of the Constitution.

Major mistakes have been made by the present government; the ruling party needs to do some work within itself. However, blaming the government for all and everything regardless of their doing is certainly contra-productive. Especially dangerous are the attempts to interfere/ subvert the functioning of the Armed Forces. If Pakistan as a state has survived, it is exclusively and a large part due to the men in uniform. For their part, they must not forget those who have deep-rooted commercial and/ or other “friendly” ties with India they would balkanize the Armed Forces, turning it into more of a Praetorian Guard at the back and call of politicians, as is most of the police. Are our khakis dying in remote far-off mountains so that people can have fake accounts and indulge in massive money-laundering while buying prime real-estate around Hyde Park in London? All their magnificent sacrifice of the men in uniform countering terrorism will go to waste. Incidentally which political party’s leaders do not have similar property in London? This has been done at the cost of Pakistan and while our Armed Forces are capable of defending the country, our future is being held hostage by a handful whose greed is quite visible in the assets they have acquired. One can count the horrible attack in Peshawar as an intelligence failure, can we count how many attacks have been avoided due to the vigilance of the armed forces? There are many more to be countered in the future but it cannot be done if the govt in power is corrupt. If the govt is corrupt it will invariably be anti-armed forces.

Pakistan as a country and as a society is today at a crossroads. Do we want to be drawn back into the morass of the old feudal land-owning political elites with the well-greased system of power through corruption or do we want to proceed on the path towards fighting corruption and poverty so that all of our society can progress? The previous three and a half years have shown that this is close to impossible by the means of our impaired democracy a system that is anyway ill-suited to our society where equality of man, the precondition for it, is absent and all and sundry think that the same laws do not apply to them. The powers that be in Pakistan need to make up their mind and decide which way to go. Unusual measures have to be taken to weather this storm, otherwise we might all drown in it.

While rising prices are a problem in all sectors of economy, it is rise in the consumer goods prices that hurts primarily the middle class and the poor people making up the majority of our population. However, a well-crafted Ehsaas program has done a lot to lighten the burden of the poor, create new income opportunities for them and improve the situation of women. Keeping the consumer prices under control would have been the task of the district administration a task that they failed to fulfil. No single person can rule single-handedly, one needs the support of the administration down the line at all levels. If the Army could send in teams in the late 1990s to stop power pilferage, why cannot similar teams supported by magistrates check consumer prices all over the country?

The other major problem is the choice of the right person for the right job. Imran Khan’s idea of making Mr. Buzdar, a man from a remote area and with no experience in administration, the CM of the largest and most important province of Pakistan, was an experiment that failed. The idea was to bring someone unconnected to the ruling families and mafias who could make a new start, undermining standing corrupt practices in economy and administration. This was too much to ask from Buzdar, changing decades of wheeling-dealing practices in one go was an impossible task even from someone of competence, this was beyond the likes of Buzdar. The administration, economy and service provision in Punjab have suffered and Buzdar has to go; the survival of the PTI govt cannot be come hostage to his survival.

If the Army hierarchy is satisfied with what is going on in Sindh despite a good CM who has to unfortunately toe the line of the corrupt, then we should go ahead and replace Imran! While certainly Imran Khan has made mistakes and even blunders when he made inappropriate remarks about rape and annoyed his great electoral base of women, he happens to be our only hope for the future. Will the good of Pakistan and the Armed Forces be served with the likes of Nawaz Sharif and/ or Asif Zardari and/ or their proxies in power? If the answer to this question is YES from those who hold the interests of Pakistan dear to their heart, then only God can help us!

Ikram Sehgal
The writer is a defence and security analyst, he is Co-Chairman Pathfinder Group, Patron-in-Chief Karachi Council on Foreign Relations (KCFR) and the Vice Chairman Board of Management Quaid-e-Azam House Museum (Institute of Nation Building).

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