This article is important in light of the existing situation between Russia and Ukraine and their corresponding foreign policies. The invasion has begun and it is not sure how long it may take for this war to end. Russia has kept a low profile in the past couple of decades focusing on fixing internal and international matters related to its economy and foreign policy while NATO allies were engaged in many unnecessary conflicts that resulted in losses worth trillions of dollars and nothing was achieved at the end of the day. Russia has utilized all means and maneuvers with Ukraine in every field and played her card very well almost isolating Ukraine from the rest of the world, now it appears that no one wants to come upfront and help Ukraine in practical terms. NATO and allies are working on applying sanctions but it is very unlikely if this will work if China backs Russia. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was meeting Putin when the invasion was launched. I am trying to convince myself that this could be a planned coincidental messaging to some key players about how Pakistan-Russia relations will move in the future and scope of the potential within it for the region and globe, but this has to be seen in the years to come.
It is always said that table diplomacy is the effective art for avoiding wars and conflicts and if table diplomacy fails, then the decision will always be made in battle grounds. In this scenario, each country has its own priorities with regard to foreign policy and diplomacy since the creation of nation states after World War II. The foreign policy subject is tough, enormously challenging, and sometimes risky when it comes to address the interstate relations and play around in the very thin area of maneuvering. Usually, world powers have the luxury of enjoying playing in the broader area of maneuvering because they have many tools and means to enforce their terms as compared to moderate or even weak nations. These tools most likely are military strength, economic superiority, manufacturing power, research and development, etc. Moreover, almost all world powers had to really struggle in reaching up to a level where they can dictate their terms more effectively.
No nation in the world can join those prestigious power corridors until and unless it makes advancements in all areas stated above
Before reaching that level, there are some criteria that must be fulfilled in order to create space for an ambitious nation in the power corridors of the world. That particular country has to develop a system for social justice, higher educational levels with prestigious institutions, impressive local body systems, impressive infrastructure, effective taxation and land reforms systems, military and economic strength, etc. For example, United States has had to go through many ups and downs for centuries like the war of independence, civil war within north and southern states, internal struggle in order to develop an effective social justice system, building up prestigious educational institutions like Harvard and Stanford, etc. Similarly, UK and other European nations who colonized many parts of the world also had to develop almost the same system of social justice for their nations.
In recent history, China is developing its infrastructure, higher educational levels having prestigious institutions, manufacturing power, military strength and economic well being. No nation in the world can join those prestigious power corridors until and unless it makes advancements in all areas stated above.
Overall National Narrative
For an ambitious nation, the next question is what is the narrative of that particular country as a whole. For example, the United States and European nations developed their systems following the ideology of capitalism since economy was in the hands of bankers that paved the path for creation of power full multinational corporations, thus creating the culture of corporatocracy. The general idea of such mindset was to dominate the world through multinational corporations, international financial institutions, and international treaties along with a blend of military and economic strength. The famous book by John Perkins “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man” is a clear example how corporatocracy culture works for dominating the entire world especially developing nations.
Next example is Russia where all basic ingredients were fulfilled for becoming a world power. The communist ideology followed by Russians had basic flaws and gaps along with direct ruthless military interventions in the neighboring countries for expansion of the communist ideology. The system collapsed due to internal problems in the late 80’s but since all basic grounds rules were already implemented, it kept Russia in the row of one of the world powers.
Turkey has quit the idea of becoming a European nation as a whole rather it is focusing on its Muslim heritage as well along with blending eastern and western cultures like a new type of model.
China is a recently developed socialist economy that is trying to raise its stature as one of the world’s dominant powers. Just look at the manufacturing power of China, its impressive infrastructure, great educational institutions, high literacy rate, etc. and after achieving certain milestones, China is now expanding its military power dramatically. China did not commit such systematic mistakes that were done by Russian communism. Social justice system has been developed and is so effective that the powerful and corrupt are executed. No country can become member of the world power stature without punishing the corrupt elites and enforcing a social justice system.
In the Muslim world, Turkey is the prime example of an impressive blend of eastern and western cultures. Turkey enjoys a brilliant history and legacy of the Ottoman Empire. Just a few decades ago, Turkey was immersed in all kinds of problems like poor infrastructure, corruption, etc., but the current Turkish leadership elevated the level systematically from developing the infrastructure to manufacturing strength and recently shifting focus on military strength; it has clear intention of expansion to maintain the historical legacy. Turkey has quit the idea of becoming a European nation as a whole rather it is focusing on its Muslim heritage as well along with blending eastern and western cultures like a new type of model. When all the required ingredients will be fulfilled, Turkey will definitely have the potential to enter into the world power corridors.
India, on the other hand, is trying to build up on same foot print as the US, China and other world powers, but the dilemma here is that she would never be able to fulfill those ingredients that are the essential pre- requisites to join the world powers’ club. Reason being that India is a country of many castes and religions that have not harmonized with each other till now and have issues with huge humongous population, a huge portion of which is living way below the poverty line. India is blindly spending on its military and trying to improve economics, however, there are other important elements that are critical such as an effective social justice system and religious tolerance that are equally important, and India is heavily lacking in this domain. India’s national narrative is short sighted with the Akhand Bharat slogan and it focuses on enforcing hegemony on its neighbors with military numbers. Currently India’s economic model suits the western world due to its extreme cheap labor rates and availability of graduates from street level institutions. There are fundamental flaws in Indian policy making and handling of its enormous population.
Finally let us come on to Pakistan. The country must settle the overall national narrative that what sort of State Pakistan will be and would like to be in the forth coming future. The objective resolution 1949 although set the path of national narrative to be an Islamic welfare state, still some people debate about it. Such debates confuse the people and allow others to discuss Pakistan’s national narrative in a conflicting manner. All the above-mentioned world powers have settled their national narratives before launching ambitious plans for domination. The geography, manpower, location and strategic importance of Pakistan strongly demands it to be a strong and powerful nation from economic to military standpoints.
The overall narrative of Pakistan should be strong enough so that the world sees Pakistan as a powerful and modern Islamic welfare state along with an impressive infrastructure and economic development model. This narrative cannot be developed without removing hurdles and punishing the powerful elites. These elites and the current system are not allowing all benefits to filter down to the common people of Pakistan. Moreover, an equal opportunity based social justice system must be developed because without it no country can raise its stature amongst the comity of nations. The good thing is that accountability has been started under supervision of the Supreme Court (SC) recently and it should go across the board and punish all regardless of whom he or she belongs to or which institution. When all hurdles will be removed, then enormous benefits will start reaching to the common people and this will be the starting point towards building a powerful nation.
The Economic Model
Each world power has learnt over the period of time what sort of economic model would they follow in order to build giant economies. The model can be changed also based upon needs and requirements but initially a strong model is imperative to be developed. For example, US economic model in the 18th century was focusing on industrial development and manufacturing. Later on, this model was modified with additional blend of military equipment manufacturing, sales and military presence worldwide through treaties along with powerful financial institutions and corporatocracy. A similar model more or less was followed by other European powers although they have lost much influence after World War II and gave up most of the colonies with the result the US took its place as the new capitalist world leader. The US has managed to maneuver well within all its above-mentioned parameters and tools involving its economic model that still keeps US as a dominant power in the world’s horizon.
As far as Russia/ former USSR is concerned, its economic model was mainly based upon communist and socialist ideology but collapsed due to huge corruption and the elites’ monopoly within this system. Russia is focusing on its economic reforms in order to fill this gap. Please note that successful economic model also requires an increase in military influence and domains or at least in some form of international defence treaties.
For Pakistan, it is essential to develop a strong economic model. I do not think anyone in the past has paid much attention to this aspect. Mostly Pakistan’s economy was managed and maneuvered by international events such as the CENTO Treaty in 50s & 60s to restrict red revolution, USSR intervention in Afghanistan during 70s & 80s and the tragic incident of 9/11 in 2001. Each of those events brought huge flux of dollars in Pakistan due to which country was able to sustain its economy on artificial basis. Very little attention was given to industrialization and manufacturing. Pakistan had covered many milestones like becoming a nuclear power, got independent and self reliance in development of military hardware, etc. yet many ingredients as mentioned above still needs to be fulfilled for becoming an effective economy on the word’s landscape.
Pakistani policy makers must focus on a multi-pronged approach in order to boost economy and currency. Since Pakistan is mainly an agricultural country, the importance of land reforms cannot be ignored. A food and water self-sufficient Pakistan will be speedily able to focus on other ingredients for exploring other milestones. With improvement in agriculture system and availability of water resources, Pakistan’s agricultural sector will become the back bone of the country’s economy and will contribute heavily towards achieving national and diplomatic objectives. Pakistan is good in military hardware, so focus must be for developing the military hardware-based economy. I do not need to mention much here since many defence related organizations are working to boost this domain.
Other possible economy-boosting models would be developing the tourism sector. Many countries in the world solely depend upon tourism for sustaining their economies. On top of that, Pakistan is building the CPEC project with China, so obtaining passage tax ‘To and From’ will be a big additional element upon which our economic model can be built. If Gwadar Port gets fully functional, many ports around the world will be affected like the port of Singapore. A strong economic model is the fundamental pre- requisite for laying out an effective foreign policy. Pakistan has many levers to play around with for an effective economic model like military hardware development, tourism, CPEC passage tax and infrastructure, agricultural exports, sports based sector and development of skilled man power. These levers can be well managed and certainly will give positive results if educated and honest leadership emerges at all levels amongst our society. Pakistan can also share experiences and lessons learnt on war against terrorism and it can be a good image building tool for Pakistan.
This TIPEC corridor will additionally connect most of the SCO member countries with further linkage to CPEC and Gwadar port to all the way up to Western China
The fundamental point here is Pakistan cannot build a successful economic model unless developments in human sector like education and health are ensured. Basic health and education are the key for building a healthy society that eventually will help to build a strong economy. An educated and healthy society will effectively contribute towards building all spheres of economic domains that can be raised up for economic model development. Another area that may be developed is the regional connectivity of which CPEC is just one example. Another example is Turkey-Iran-Pakistan Economic Corridor (TIPEC). There is already a highway between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey by the name of RCD Highway and if this highway could somehow be upgraded, then another corridor could be made available that will connect the Caucasus countries from the Caspian Sea to CPEC highways. This will be an additional revenue generation project for Pakistan having unique diplomatic and financial benefits. This TIPEC corridor will additionally connect most of the SCO member countries with further linkage to CPEC and Gwadar port to all the way up to Western China.
Honest leadership.
Nations with weak leadership are either dominated by others or are always on the mercy of others, asking for help; history tells all about them. Many examples can be given like US, UK, China, Singapore, Turkey, Malaysia, etc. where the leadership turned the table around. The recent most example is Russia’s Vladimir Putin who managed to isolate Ukraine from any foreign help and invaded the country to prevent its borders from NATO influence. Pakistan needs a strong leadership at all levels and from every sector of our society but unfortunately, the best brains go out of the country mainly due to a corrupt political system with equally corrupt policies leaving behind a huge gap that eventually has to be filled by mediocre and low educated work force. The level of corruption practices is so deep that many patriotic Pakistanis attempted to return but were disappointed by the corrupt system and lost hope. This corrupt system must be changed, and corrupt elites must be punished. This is the absolute and final cure for advancement towards a healthy society and creating a sustainable economic model that would eventually help build an effective foreign policy.
Aggressive Diplomatic Approach.
Diplomacy is the art of conducting effective negotiations between a country or State representatives regarding issues like peace-making in a conflict zone, mutual trade, war, economics, culture, environment, human rights and international treaties, etc. Informally, diplomacy means effective employment of tactics to achieve strategic advantages or to find mutually acceptable solutions to a common challenge. Effective diplomacy can be done only by employing professional diplomats amongst our missions around the globe who have strong inter-personal skills, knowledge of world politics and finally, what is in Pakistan’s interest and the work hard for achieving this goal.
Our diplomats must trust the power of our military, successes gained in the anti-terrorism field and the strength of 220 million strong Pakistanis.
The diplomats from western nations and powerful countries normally have a very aggressive tone reflecting the level of confidence upon their respective powerful structure. The same approach must be adopted by Pakistani diplomats with clear and aggressive stance. There is no room for weak diplomacy when it comes to dealing with other nation states. Our diplomats must trust the power of our military, successes gained in the anti-terrorism field and the strength of 220 million strong Pakistanis. All respected nations always follow the reciprocity rule, it simply means the same tit-for-tat approach as being faced by our diplomats in other countries. In the same way how others deal with our diplomats, we should do the same, and it even may apply for social and diplomatic functions. The bottom line is that weak and apologetic diplomacy cannot work in this challenging world especially when we have an unstable Afghanistan, particularly with a new Taliban government in the West and our traditional enemy India in the East along with other challenges we are facing from western capitals.
Military Power Presence & Demonstration
Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must show our muscle wherever and whenever required. We must be prepared to adopt a little bossy attitude if such a situation arrives. Many countries have defence or semi defence-pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. For example, Pakistan is taking active part in the 34-nation Saudi-led Military Alliance. We can use this platform for selling military equipment, bilateral relations for trade, visa on arrival agreements, military training and other economic deals. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Brunei. A lot needs to be done in this domain. Defending our Exclusive Economic Zone is the prime factor in our naval domain. Although Pakistan is enforcing all international regulations within its EEZ, yet effective presence is utmost important in order to let our enemies know about our level of seriousness when it comes to defending our huge EEZ. Joint military and naval drills with friendly countries can be highly beneficial in this regard.
Concluding Remarks
To summarize, Pakistan must build a strong narrative to become a powerful Islamic welfare state since; this is already defined in the Objective Resolution. This Islamic national narrative is supposed to be our strength rather than a weakness. The greater objective of such a narrative should be to lead the Islamic world from every aspect. Another important paradigm that impacts the foreign policy is the economic model and removal of hurdles that restrict economic wellbeing of the nation for which education and health reforms are a must along with formation of prestigious educational and health institutions. Basic system reforms need to be done in the field of taxation, land reforms, social justice, above all punishing corrupt elites must be a priority. Pakistan must develop a blend of economic model that covers military hardware sale, tourism, agriculture and regional connectivity projects for revenue generation. Even if military power ingredient is available, no nation in the world can formulate an effective foreign policy with a poor infrastructure, bad social justice system, lack of education and health, absence of research and development.
Pakistan has a strong military establishment and solid defence related infrastructure along with effective nuclear deterrence, so we must pay attention to other ingredients for laying out an effective foreign policy. Reciprocity, tit-for-tat and a show of muscle, where required, are all essential parts of the global diplomatic games. A big lesson from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is that a weak nation cannot sustain long enough and also that no one comes to help in tough times if a country is weak in multi-dimensional domains. It is important to fill all above mentioned gaps if Pakistan wants to paly a key role in the global political arena.
