Americans do not take their failures kindly and this singular factor has the potential of derailing Afghanistan’s otherwise assured journey towards peace and prosperity. Blocking access of Afghan Central Bank to Afghan national funds invested and parked in the US could only be the starting point of this nasty campaign. The head of Afghanistan’s central bank said the US had cut off access to its assets around $7bn of which are held at the US Federal Reserve. Afghanistan Bank’s total reserves were approximately $9bn when Taliban took over Kabul. As per international standards, most of this was held in safe, liquid assets such as US Treasury bonds and gold offshore.
Soon after an official from the Biden administration said that any central bank assets the Afghan government has in the US will not be made available to the Taliban, the ever US-enslaved IMF also announced withholding the money that it owes to Afghanistan. Resources of over $370m from the IMF were set to arrive on August 23, these funds were part of a global IMF response to the economic crisis. Access to the IMF’s reserves in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) assets, which can be converted to government-backed money, have also been blocked. “As is always the case, the IMF is guided by the views of the international community,” the IMF spokesperson said.
The World Bank also funds many development projects in Afghanistan and has provided Afghanistan with $5.3bn since 2002. It has not yet commented on the current status of this funding. Independent money transfer giant Western Union has also suspended money transfer services to Afghanistan “until further notice”.
It would appear that Iran-category sanctions are on its way for Afghanistan too. Local Afghan Banks have told customers that they cannot return their dollars.
Abdul Qahar Balkhi from the Taliban’s Cultural Commission spoke to Al Jazeera on August 22: “When we entered Kabul, and it was not planned because we announced initially that we do not want to enter Kabul, as we want to reach a political solution before entering Kabul and making a joint and inclusive government. But what happened was that the security forces [Afghan Defence and National Security Forces ADNSF] left, abandoned their places, and we were forced to ask our forces to enter and take over security”.
President Joe Biden on August18, touched on the possibility of US forces staying in Afghanistan beyond the stated goal of August 31 to evacuate all American citizens. The departure from the original plan is one example how the administration is being forced to shift policies on the run, in large part due to vastly underestimating the speed of the Taliban advance. “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse of this [ANDSF] army and this government in 11 days,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on August 18. America’s highest ranking uniformed officer in effect admitted that the scenarios weighed by the military and intelligence community were too rosy. This miscalculation lies at the root of the problems the US faces today.
“If the logic of the United States is that its military presence might enhance security of Central Asia, the natural response from Moscow is that we can take care of it, we have done it for a long period of time,” said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank in Moscow.
After the swift fall of Kabul, the US military, its allies, and non-governmental groups are busy evacuating thousands of people out of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. President Joe Biden put it: “This is one of the largest, most difficult airlifts in history.” He is determined to complete it at the earliest.
Resistance in the Northern parts of Afghanistan is not likely to go beyond pin pricks. Pygmies propping up for resistance are no match to the military might and political prudence of Taliban.
Since the Taliban took control of Kabul there has been no clarity yet about the new government and its structure. Consultations for formation of government in Afghanistan are complete and a new dispensation shall be announced soon after the last America soldier leaves Afghanistan that is the long-standing Taliban stance for restoration of sovereignty of Afghanistan. The Taliban government is likely to be much more tolerant than most of the far-right European governments in the West and the RSS model in India.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on August 20 that other countries (read America and its camp followers) should not impose their own values on Afghanistan. “You cannot impose standards of political life and behaviour on other people from outside,” Putin said. The reality is that the Taliban have taken control of most of the country. “The Taliban movement controls almost the entire territory of the country,” Putin told a televised press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Kremlin. “These are the realities and it is from these realities that we must proceed, preventing the collapse of the Afghan state… “Russia continues its talks with Pakistan and China over Afghan crisis”, he added
America relies on a three-legged foreign policy viz. multilateral diplomacy, preferential market access and military power. Having failed to subdue Taliban militarily, the US is now likely to apply the remaining two tools, spearheaded by comprehensive crippling sanctions. For this the US is likely to use the multilateral world order built and dominated by her, including the UN, World Bank, IMF, WTO etc. It will deny preferential market access to Afghan products to her consumers. Americans will also deny military equipment to the Afghan government, which would ensure that whatever is left out of the US raised ANDSF also dies its own death and Afghanistan remains insecure both militarily and economically.
The fate of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist organizations like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is the primary concern of Pakistan. TTP has indicated to merge back into the Afghan Tehreek-e-Taliban through renewal of allegiance (Tajdeed-e-Bait). If this happens and India stops funding the rest, the issue would stand resolved to a great extent, However, India is not likely to do that.
Pakistan’s basic concern is that the territory of Afghanistan should not be allowed to be used against any other country and Afghanistan should not, once again, become a hub of international terrorist organizations. Pakistan has welcomed the assurance given by the Afghan Taliban leadership that they would not let Afghanistan become a terror haven and respect the rights of all citizens, including women. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson in his first press conference in Kabul gave the assurances that the Taliban would protect the rights of citizens, including women. He also pledged that the group would not let Afghan soil to be used by terrorist outfits against any other country. Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Zahid Hafiz Chaudhry told the regular weekly news briefing. “We have particularly noted his comments about not letting Afghanistan become a terror haven, protection of lives and properties of Afghans and foreigners, respect for rights of all Afghans, including women, right to education and political reconciliation,” he added, “These are indeed positive indications.”
Pakistan awaits the formation of an all-inclusive political dispensation in Kabul having representation of all the factions. Pakistan wants that the government in Afghanistan should be inclusive having representation of all groups. The people of Afghanistan have the right to make decisions inside Afghanistan but the regional countries can play their role in enabling stability in the war-torn country. Prime Minister Imran Khan has called upon leaders of the world powers to facilitate achievement of this end objective. Pakistan is trying to come up with the strategy that decision making is not done in isolation, it should be collective, leading the situation inside Afghanistan towards stability.
Pakistan has tried to create a positive environment and is doing its best to persuade the Taliban and the United States to negotiate. Pakistan does not control the Taliban and it did not have decision making influence over them. Pakistan is in touch with all groups in Afghanistan and has hosted a delegation of the Afghan Parliament in Islamabad.
Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul has met with the Taliban leaders including former president Hamid Karzai, former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and others. A delegation of political leaders from Afghanistan, representing different ethnic groups and political parties, has also been on a visit to Pakistan. During all these meetings Pakistan has shared its perspective on the current and evolving situation in Afghanistan and the way forward. Being an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan, with a 2,600 km long border and host to over 4 million Afghan refugees, Pakistan has an abiding interest and desire for peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Addressing the faculty and cadets during a visit to the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) in Kakul on August 20, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa delivered an important policy speech about Afghanistan, covering challenges and opportunities. The army chief said that peace in Afghanistan was essential to the region, especially to the people of Afghanistan. “We will continue to play our role for peace and stability in Afghanistan,” he said. “Pakistan wants national and regional peace and development.”
Speaking in the context of the latest Afghan situation, the army chief said: “We expect the Taliban to live up to the promises made to the international community about women and human rights and that Afghan soil will not be used against any other country.” He articulated that Pakistan had paid a heavy price for the unrest in Afghanistan. Despite its economic woes, he added, Pakistan had sheltered more than 3 million Afghan refugees for four decades. “Pakistan’s sincere efforts in the Afghanistan peace process are for the establishment of a region that is a peaceful, prosperous and economic partner,” he said. “We have consistently made it clear to the international community that it must play a role in finding a peaceful solution to Afghanistan.”
On August 14 Hindustan Times editorially commented under the caption: “The Fall of Afghanistan”:
“The United States has lost. The US exit was understandable. But the way it was managed is unpardonable. The Inter-Services Intelligence has won. And India stares at a crisis. Twenty years after the United States (US) militarily invaded Afghanistan and ousted the Taliban from power, the Taliban is back in Kabul as the US fled in scenes reminiscent of its exit from Vietnam. Notwithstanding the spin from Washington, this is a strategic defeat. The US exit was understandable. But the way it was managed is unpardonable This is also Pakistan’s win. Notwithstanding the differences that exist between Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Taliban, ISI’s strategy of waiting for the US exit while supporting the Taliban has paid off for now. Pakistan’s aim of securing “strategic depth” is close to being met. Its objective of eroding Indian presence in Afghanistan is in motion. And it will be the centre of a new arrangement where China, Russia, and others will use Islamabad’s good offices to deal with Afghanistan India, like the US, overestimated the power of the Afghan government. It delayed contact with the Taliban till it was too late India’s connectivity projects across the region will be hit. The ability to covertly hurt Pakistan will diminish. And jihadi attention may well shift to Kashmir. An under-appreciated trigger for India’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s constitutional status was the calculation that a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan could lead to a repeat of the early 1990s in the Valley It [India] must also have a medium-term policy on whether to lie low and recognise the Taliban regime or invest in weakening the Taliban and instruments that can be used for the purpose. What is certain is that August 15, 2021, will have a profound impact on geopolitics across South, West, and Central Asia.”
Apparently, two unstoppable actors Taliban and the United States are on a collision course. The true face of the US shall come to the fore once it is done with the evacuation. And the true mettle of the Taliban shall be tested when they fulfil their promises and confront governance challenges. There is an evolving opportunity in the form of international community’s convergence on peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. There is an equally fascinating opportunity in the form of the Afghans’ yearning for peace and prosperity. There is also a feeler of satisfaction that there has been no widespread violence thus far. It is important that an early and smooth transition of power takes place under whose umbrella all Afghan sides can engage and work out an inclusive political settlement. The continued engagement by the international community is also critical for achieving durable peace, security and development in Afghanistan.
