Monday, November 25, 2024

The Third Wave Surge

The third wave of corona has Pakistan in its firm grip. While in Europe and in the rest of the world including neighbouring India it has been rolling for quite some time, Pakistan had so far been doing quite well. Now the number of infections is rising, it seems it cannot be stopped with just ordinary means of SOPs and appeals. A new lockdown is on the cards with more hardships for the poor and the economy at large. The Army has been called in by all Provinces and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT). As the PM rightly said, “we should and would not endanger human lives to safe the economy”.

One reason the situation is going out of hand is the weariness of most people over the restrictions that have been looming over our heads for over a year now. Especially in Ramadan it is so bad that for the second year in a row we cannot go out or have friends over for iftari and don’t feel confident attending prayers outside the home. Shopping for Eid after iftari is a favourite pastime, roaming in the markets, looking out for presents, new cloths. All this is dangerous because of the tense closeness in the shops and markets and the reduced opening hours. Visits to a tailor are also not advisable with small rooms and the need to get close to each other.

Apart from being tired of restrictions the vaccination campaign is also stalling, not progressing fast enough. 113.4 million adults in Pakistan require vaccination. So far China has been sent half a million doses first vaccines to Pakistan free of cost; another 500,000 Sinopharm doses and 60,000 CanSino jabs were received three weeks ago, with a further 500,000 vaccine doses expected. But given the high population numbers this is a drop in the ocean! So far it seems that the Pakistan govt has not been buying more vaccines in the market and the news of 100000 of Pfizer vaccine expected of arriving have so far not been substantiated. Even then, this is a paltry number in view of what is needed! BiotechPfizer nowadays is the most sought-after vaccine however the market is empty because US is controlling the supply. In any case, there are rumours about millions of doses contracted for but without official confirmation.

Another problem is finances. So far Pakistan has been receiving vaccines for free and the jabs have been free for people to receive. When the readiness to get vaccinated is not very high and poverty is even higher paying money for the jab is not an option for most people. At an early stage during this pandemic, it quickly became apparent that to end this global crisis we don’t just need COVID-19 vaccines, we also need to ensure that everyone in the world has access to them. If only the rich nations have access and the poor countries are left out, the pandemic is going on forever because people moving will spread it and the new mutations that occur. To avoid that COVAX has been created by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Commission and France in response to this pandemic. This program bringing together governments, global health organisations, manufacturers, scientists, private sector, civil society and philanthropy, with the aim of providing innovative and equitable access to free or low-cost COVID-19 diagnostics, treatments and vaccines. It is the only truly global solution to this pandemic because it is the only effort to ensure that people in all corners of the world will get access to COVID-19 vaccines once they are available, regardless of their wealth.

With 15 million doses Pakistan is expected to be one of the five biggest confirmed recipients of vaccines, the only problem is that it is not known when they will be delivered. With production capacities strained and the vaccine is delivered based on the ‘first come first serve’ principle where western countries were fast to get early contracts and making down payments, that might take time.

In a very reasonable initiative, the GOP has allowed the import of vaccines by private companies into Pakistan. Under this scheme 50000 dosed of the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine and a small number of Chinese vaccines has been imported. However, the selling of the jabs was delayed over seemingly endless negotiations about the price at which they would be sold. The Sputnik variety came to be sold and administered in private hospitals of Karachi Rs 15000 for 2 jabs paid including all expenses. No small amount compared to prices elsewhere in the world for Sputnik, it still is definitely a small amount considering what one would be charged if being hospitalized with Covid-19 infection it would cost lakhs! So, if one can avoid this by paying 15.000 it seems a good deal. That was what people were thinking and the jabs available in Karachi and elsewhere were sold out in no time. But then after a couple of days this initiative came to an end by a request from the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) to stop the sale of the vaccine. Despite a court ruling that in view of the dire situation in Pakistan and a third wave in the making all options should be used to get as many people as possible out of harm’s way the selling of privately imported vaccines has not been (officially) resumed. Because the imported vaccines need to be used within a certain time, by now they have either expired or have been sold among friends and buddies of those who have access. The stop of the private import of vaccines is not only taking away the chance to get additional people vaccinated in Pakistan, it endangers the rest of the world and will end in Pakistanis being prevented from travelling for the missing vaccination. A Bloomberg report recently estimated that given the current pace of the vaccination campaign in Pakistan it will take a decade to vaccinate 70% of the population, i.e. reach herd immunity! With the third wave is now here and only a negligible number of people have been vaccinated. On Sunday 25th April the official number of active cases was 795,627 that is 11.5% rise during the last 7 days. The govt has now warned that if the number of infections does not go down by next week a complete lockdown will be imposed on the country. There is hardly a chance that the number of infections would go down, so we are looking forward to a difficult second half of Ramadan and an even more difficult Eid. The only thing that can be done is to vaccinate as many people as possible and with COVAX deliveries delayed for the time being why would those who can and want to afford not pay for privately imported vaccine?

Ikram Sehgal
The writer is a defence and security analyst, he is Co-Chairman Pathfinder Group, Patron-in-Chief Karachi Council on Foreign Relations (KCFR) and the Vice Chairman Board of Management Quaid-e-Azam House Museum (Institute of Nation Building).

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