Countering 5th Generation Warfare

Pakistan is a prime target since past couple decades of certain hidden and known hostile agencies in the domain of 5^th generation hybrid warfare. The main purpose of this type of warfare is to weaken the country’s soft image, infrastructure, and economy. The next stage comes when paid proxy groups are used to wage guerilla-type warfare to destabilize a country, like Yugoslavia, Syria and Libya we saw in the past. To achieve such objective, the hostile powers use many means and maneuvers to execute their plans such as igniting any religious or ethnic sentiments usually mishandled by government officials, conflicting media reporting, elaborate negative imaging to harm the economy and to widen the ethnic differences, etc.

The recent issue between Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government indicated a clear management chaos in terms of anticipation of the sensitivity of the issue and decision making amongst Government rank and file where the issue could have been resolved peacefully and without any bloodshed. Proxy elements are always vigilant for such an opportunity in an organized manner and probably some paid elements are also used to ignite the situation.

The recent terror attack at the Quetta Serena Hotel also indicates enemy plans against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and is a desperate but organized attempt to disturb Pak-China relations. This desperateness from enemies, especially India, is obvious due to many reasons other than the CPEC and these are India’s ouster from the Chahbahar project, cutting India out from Iran-China mega economic deal for next 25 years and kicking out India from the Afghan peace process. The vicious network that India created around Pakistan is fading away mostly due to the Iran-China mega-economic deal. The UAE and Saudis also realized the importance of Pakistan as a strategic balancer and ties are improving.

For countering 5^th generation proxies and in order to safeguard Pakistan’s interests, Pakistan finally took rightful measure and started building a dual-sided fence along the 2500 + km long Pak-Afghan border. As of now, a considerable portion of the fence has been completed along with military settlements and fortified-style check posts. The immediate impact all-over the country is that major terror attacks in Pakistan were considerably reduced. This clearly indicates that notorious actors were hiding in Afghanistan and it was being used a launching pad against Pakistan since 1947.

In addition to fencing the border with Afghanistan, however, we must be ready to undertake some additional steps in the coming future. This is the sole right of a country to protect its interests and safeguard its citizens from any uncertainty due to a war-like situation next door. We can leverage a recent example from Turkey.

Turkey launched an assault on Syria against PKK/YPG terror groups. Turkey enforced a zone of influence about 30 km width along its border with Syria so that Turkey could be safe from ISIS, PKK and YPG terror groups. Similar tactics can be exercised by Pakistan to protect its borders. The entire world knows that Afghanistan is a war-torn country and is the real sanctuary for all kinds of terror and other networks. Acting against terrorists acting from inside Afghan soil is the right of a sovereign country like Pakistan. We should keep in mind that this is the world where only the powerful prevail so if some people comment about Indians ambitions in return to Pakistan’s aggressive stance establishing zone of influence inside Afghanistan it will not be possible due to balance of power.

I am not suggesting immediate steps as taken by Turkey or sending troops the same way inside Afghanistan. Rather, there are ways how to establish a buffer zone and I am convinced that the time is approaching when our planners must keep this option on the table. For instance, the active or semi-active Special Duty flanks can be present permanently beyond the Durand line preventing any imminent threat towards Pakistan. These are not the steps we haven’t exercised previously but we have vast experience of the 1980 era Afghan War where many tactical procedures were developed.

I had mentioned in a detailed article couple of years ago that an effective border management system at the 950+ km long Iran border should be done, same way as with the 2500+ km long Afghan border like “an organized fencing” is necessary to control and regulate law and order situation in Pakistan since it was established that terrorists used to enter Pakistan from the free Afghan border crossings and from Iranian sides. The episode of Kulbhoshan Jadav and his proxy network using Iranian soil against Pakistan is an obvious example and sufficient reason for Pakistan to set up fencing arrangement with the Iranian border. It is noticed that such fencing arrangement at the Afghan border has considerably reduced proxy terror activities and security situation has improved a lot in past few years.

Pakistan successfully fought the 5^th generation proxy war with the help from people of Pakistan, the Army and our Markhors. The vicious net was laid in the 90’s decade along with tremendous logistical preparations against Pakistan for such proxy war and launched during the Lal Masjid incident in 2007. The sentiments used then were demands from people of Swat for Islamic laws thus igniting a local Shariah movement by Sufi Mohammad that was later hijacked by Mulla Fazlullah and his foreign bosses. Keeping it short and to the point, the Pakistan Government must try to tackle such situation via debate within society about issues regardless of whether they are religious, cultural, ethnic or social injustice otherwise such issues are later ignited by hostile powers who try to benefit from them.

Counter Measures: (5^th generation hybrid warfare)

Foreseeing enormous strategic challenges from eastern and western borders, it is suggested that our planners consider the below measures/recommendations to counter 5^th generation tactics.

• Keeping in mind known risks from eastern and western side, Pakistan Must make Iranian side of border safe by building 950+ km long fence/wall. The Afghan side fence was under development since 2017, now completed.

• The intelligence networks need more resources (state of the art technology tools) and rigorous training keeping in mind various internal and external fronts. It includes all levels of resources starting from additional resources for defence agencies to civil law enforcement agencies.

• Joint intelligence collaboration with SCO member states can be extremely helpful for handling challenges from Afghanistan. This collaboration will further benefit when additional economic activities like RPEC (Russia Pakistan Economic Corridor), North South gas pipeline will be matured in next few years.

•  NACTA must be prepared lead for effective coordination amongst various agencies. This should be a leading institute countering enemy hybrid warfare tactics. I have not seen evidence of NACTA being in full effectiveness. This is critical step to fight 5^th generation enemy tactics.

• Counter narrative groups must be created for handling any anti-Pakistan trend on social media. No harmful trend should be allowed to be transmitted/spread negative image under any external agenda.

• Counter and keep a close eye on media anchors who may ignite the situation by frequently switching their versions. Please note that media groups and personnel are one of the key tools being used in such type of warfare.

• We need to develop counter capabilities of civil law enforcement agencies quickly and aggressive IBOs must be continued on long term basis. IBOs are proving to be extremely effective and must be extended to all other domains wherever necessary.

• A sharp awareness campaign must be initiated to let the Pakistani nation know about the lethalness of 5th generation warfare. This is the warfare that was lately used for destroying Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen alongwith some pieces taken from Yugoslavian model. In this warfare, a multi-pronged approach is used to destabilize a country with help from various forms of media, igniting regional and internal disputes, utilizing internal overt and covert proxies like Balochistan Liberation Army BLA), TTP (and religious sectarian groups etc. Pakistan is the only country that defeated the 5^th Gen-warfare elements from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Swat to Karachi based terror outfits and the rest will be taken care by effective IBOs.

• Recent incident between Tehrik-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) leadership and police is a classic example how the action of few incompetent government officials can result into a catastrophe. Such incompetent officials must be set aside and even prosecuted.

• The Police is not yet designed to handle hybrid warfare so it is necessary to setup training for overall police structure in Pakistan on how to handle this lethal warfare. ISPR can play a vital role in this domain. Moreover, retired army personnel and/or bubble assignments from the Army can be extended to the police for establishing such arrangements to create an organized culture amongst police structure.

• The people of Pakistan must be vigilant against any such elements who ignite situations, like the recent TLP incident. Government and ISPR should set up a strategy how to activate counter social media groups against 5^th gen proxies. It seems that organized trends are being developed to show negative image of the country that impacts badly on multiple areas and dimensions. These organized groups have been set up by hostile agencies as part of hybrid warfare through social media propaganda; the only way to counter them is to establish/setup equal response via organized social media groups that can elaborate Pakistan’s rationale narrative.

Forming Strategic Alliances for countering hybrid warfare

In order to repel and counter the organized proxies in all forms, Pakistan must leverage resources and means from friendly countries, including information, intelligence networking, financial resources and amongst international media organizations. We know that countries under the SCO umbrella have good and effective media voice. Even China has a much strong presence in this domain so this type of alliance must be extended to overall SCO nations. Also, some middle east countries have very strong media outlets like UAE, Qatar and Turkey.

Having in mind above mentioned facts, Pakistan must leverage Turkey and its influence as a vital and fundamental tool of its foreign policy and also for getting support in terms of countering 5^th generation proxies. Turkish Pakistan military and naval alliance and strategic partnership can be a rock-solid element in multiple domains. Turkey has influence on many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment. The joint Pakistan-Turkish Partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for the Middle East, IOR and even for any future prospect. Elaborating further, Turkey has expansion plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical Ottoman Empire factor, so Pakistan must help Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another. The economic revival and boosting the trade with Turkey through Iran can be one great step in this regard since we had the RCD agreement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. This can become another corridor (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan Economic Corridor – TIPEC) and can be linked with CPEC. In this way, Eurasian opportunities will be merged with benefits of CPEC related trade.

Concluding Remarks

Pakistan is the only country that has fought foreign imposed lethal hybrid warfare in the past couple decades resulting in tremendous monitory and physical losses yet it emerged victorious while many countries were destroyed by such warfare tactics. This only could be possible due to unshaken bondage between the people of Pakistan and our security institutions. The above-mentioned recommendations for countering 5^th Generation proxies are well researched and worth attention from concerned officials for implementation. Pakistan is currently in the phase of strategic policy paradigm shift by getting closer to China and Russia. The membership of SCO bloc is a clear example. In addition, Pakistan’s role is pivotal for Chinese led OBOR vision due to its flagship CPEC project under OBOR and SCO member countries are largely in favor of this economic corridor. Due to this upcoming bright forecast, adversaries will try to undermine Pakistan on all fronts by employing 5^th generation proxies. We, as a nation, must be ready and vigilant to reverse such enemy plans.