The recent developments in the global and regional arena are troublesome and could be dangerous. They require careful attention from our policy makers on how to maneuver Pakistan’s foreign policy and military strategy from a strategic positioning standpoint. There are certain deliberate attempts from the western bloc to pursue a containment-of-China policy in order to carry over world’s dominancy status for the current century. Since it is visible that China is trying to emerge as a global power by presenting herself as an alternate to the current western hegemony, the western bloc along with its allies leveraging geographical advantages, are trying to limit the Chinese rise; an example is the possible blockade in the South China Sea that is a vital sea trade route for China. China cannot emerge as a superpower without trade with the rest of the world and the only trade route is via South China Sea which is under the influence of the western bloc. Any advancement in blocking this Chinese sea route will result in a catastrophic warlike situation that could lead to a bigger war theatre.
Other than the ongoing encirclement of China in South China Sea by the western bloc, there are some other significant developments that indicate a possible conflict in the region including India-China skirmishes in various parts of the “chicken neck corridor”, and the ongoing Chinese conflict with India in Ladakh. India is now in a direct “eyeball to eyeball” situation with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and is encouraged by other stake holders in the bloc to start a limited two front war thus providing an opportunity for imposing blockade in the Strait of Malacca. India is hesitant to do this hot pursuit since its chicken neck corridor is directly under Chinese invasion threat and India could lose its seven eastern states and other areas in the Himalayan region as a result of any direct collision with China. India will try to engage Pakistan in a limited war which seems evident seeing Indian war preps recently. Pakistan and China are developing CPEC which will provide an alternate route to the western part of China in case of a naval blockade in South China Sea. Western bloc has developed the South China Sea doctrine after decades of maneuvering and having Chinese trade through CPEC would be tough to digest. So, the development of the CPEC is one important factor in the emerging war arena.
Looking into the Middle East situation in this scenario, the recognition of Israel by key Arab States and the deteriorating relation between Pakistan and some key Arab regimes are alarming elements and require utmost attention and vigilance. Key Middle Eastern countries are in alignment with Israel for structuring normal diplomatic and trade ties and are influencing other Muslim countries to do the same. One major factor tilting towards Israel by certain Arab countries is to contain Turkey’s influence. Turkey is trying to revive its status which it lost during the Ottoman Empire era and is steadily pursuing this goal. Certainly, Arab countries do not see this as a positive sign hence they are reviving diplomatic ties with Israel and also enhancing diplomatic bond with India to the next level thus resulting in deteriorating terms with Pakistan.
If we see the regional strategic landscape, India is trying at various levels to set a foothold around Pakistan’s area of common interest. One example is the Indian investment in Afghanistan and Iran along with other hidden plans against Pakistan using 5th generation proxies. We must keep in mind always that Pakistan is just like a strong strategic balancer that is preventing Indian expansion westward because there is no other way India can expand except West. Similarly, India is trying its utmost to control naval passageways from UAE to Oman through various means. The huge economic interests of the Gulf countries in India are facilitating the fulfillment of Indian ambitions. So, it seems that India is trying to encircle Pakistan from every possible side along with a heavy naval build up to contain Pakistan’s trade.
I have said many times before that the above-mentioned enormous challenge requires a multi-pronged approach on many fronts, mainly including strategic, economic and diplomatic fronts. We should not expect every country to be on same page with us if we don’t carry out certain actions and fulfill certain criteria that basically applies also to the foreign policy. Having said that, however, we cannot say there has been a total failure of our diplomacy during the ongoing Kashmir issue because Pakistan was able to internationalize the issue at UNSC with help from China. India did its utmost to stop the UNSC session from being held but failed miserably. Also the attitude of Russia and other members is now quite different than in the past. So, in that sense, our diplomacy was quite effective and appreciable.
A strong and effective foreign policy has some basic powerful ingredients that dictate and determine the strength of a nation in the world’s political arena. On top of the list is the narrative of that country as a whole. Pakistan has a strong military establishment and solid defence related infrastructure along with an effective nuclear deterrence, so we must pay attention to other ingredients for laying out an effective foreign policy. No country can get a proper place in the word without having a blend of maneuvering tools like strong economic model, infrastructure and military strength.
Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must be ready to show our muscle wherever and whenever required. We must adopt a bit of a ‘bossy’ attitude if the situation demands and must not revert to an ‘apologetic’ attitude. Many countries have defence or semi-defence pacts with Pakistan so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Brunei. A lot needs to be done in this domain.
Leveraging SCO Membership & CPEC – Powerful Tools for Foreign Policy maneuvering:
Pakistan’s foreign policy is always influenced by western oriented thinking with strong interaction with NATO. Many historical examples can be given like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. But the incident of 9/11 and consequent events compelled Pakistan to rethink its global engagement as far as dealing with big powers is concerned. The opportunity came through Gwadar port and CPEC that opened the doors for another power axis, that is China and Russia. Moreover, Pakistan became a full SCO member recently which gives clear indication to the western bloc that Islamabad is responding to strategic paradigm shift due to consequence of war on terror and unilateral expansionism. This club has been the potential center for regional geopolitics as well as economic wellbeing under OBOR. Pakistan has a key status due to the flag ship CPEC project. This bloc has the huge potential to extend CPEC scope to Central Asian states, Caucasus and deep into Russia and if Iran is added, it could involve the Caspian potential. The challenge is to benefit from such a power bloc into our economic wellbeing and geo strategic gains, for example like the Kashmir issue. The challenge here is how to maintain fair relations with NATO countries, especially the United States. This enormous challenge requires an aggressive foreign policy and a very well-motivated foreign office staff. The success lies in foreign policy terms keeping relations with both blocs but having predominant tilt towards the region. While NATO and western countries have less economic stake in Pakistan rather than expansionism, on the other hand, China is there with full economic agenda. The best practice would be to use pros and cons of both rival blocs and use them in interests of Pakistan. Also keep in mind that fair practices and stand on principles will be the ultimate strength in the diplomacy world.
Pakistan – Turkey Strategic Alignment:
Pakistan must leverage Turkey and its influence as a vital and fundamental tool of its foreign policy. Turkish – Pakistan military and naval alliance and strategic partnership can be a rock-solid element in multiple domains keeping in mind the situation with India in IOR, Kashmir and on diplomatic fronts as far as Arab middle east politics is concerned.
I am totally convinced that Turkey is one of the friendly countries that will come to support Pakistan in the time of need. Pakistan has many tools and maneuvers in all aspects, and alignment with Turkey should be another strategic maneuver that will be beneficial not only for both countries but also for regional stability. Turkey has influence on many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment. The joint Pakistan-Turkish Partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for the Middle East and the IOR. Elaborating further, Turkey has expansion plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical Ottoman empire factor, so Pakistan must help Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another. The joint development of military hardware, research and development and economic investment on each other’s side will help boost the relations and partnership between these two brotherly countries. The diplomatic stance of Turkey on Kashmir is always in favor of Pakistan and Pakistan needs to boost its aggressive economic advances in order to fully gain leverage from SCO membership at all levels including bridging between SCO and Turkey. Due to the SCO status, Russia is not an Indian ally any more in the sense as we used to observe in the past. The economic revival and boosting trade with Turkey through Iran can be one great step in this regard since we already had the RCD Agreement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. This can become another corridor (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan Economic Corridor – TIPEC) and can be linked with CPEC. In this way, Eurasian opportunities will be merged with benefits of CPEC related trade.
