Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to Kabul on January 13, it was a previously unannounced visit at a time when the second and most crucial phase of intra-Afghan dialogue began in Doha on January 05. He met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, head of Afghan Peace Council Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Afghan National Security Adviser Hamadullah Mohib.
According to Kamran Yousaf (Express Tribune, January 14), the Afghan presidential palace said the discussions focused on the “ongoing peace process and combating terrorism”, there was no word from India on the visit. The visit was very much part of efforts that aim at spoiling the ongoing peace-making process. India does not want to see peace in Afghanistan and actually Doval went to Kabul as part of efforts to undermine the peace efforts. Beneficiaries of peace in Afghanistan are its immediate neighbours such as Pakistan, Iran and Russia. Peace and stability in the neighbouring country does not suit India since it wants to see turmoil in Afghanistan so that it could exploit the situation.
India is playing the role of a spoiler. When it comes to external spoilers, India is the major hurdle. Among all the regional countries, India has yet to wholeheartedly endorse the ongoing peace effort. The Trump administration had tried even to push India to engage with the Afghan Taliban and recognise them as a political entity. However, the Modi government had so far been reluctant to shift its stance, thus isolating itself from the rest of the regional countries. Pakistan has informed the US time and again that India was only interested in provoking chaos in Afghanistan. India uses the Afghan soil against Pakistan.
Recently, Pakistan made public certain dossiers containing what it said was “irrefutable evidence” of India’s involvement in fomenting violence in the country. Peace and stability in Afghanistan will make it difficult for India to use the Afghan soil. The US, however, seems keen to ensure India does have a role in Afghanistan. India was invited both at the signing of a landmark deal between the US and the Afghan Taliban in February last year as well as commencement of the intra-Afghan talks in September in Doha. However, it remains to be seen if the coming Biden administration would stick to Trump’s approach or may revisit some of the arrangements.
Pamela Constable in her January 13 piece for Washington Post stated that “Growing uncertainty over peace talks with the Taliban, a drumbeat of targeted killings and the looming withdrawal of US troops have raised tensions here to a fever pitch, prompting calls for President Ashraf Ghani to step down and an interim government to take over”. Ghani is adamant at completing his term and “see the peace talks to fruition”. The second round of intra-Afghan talks began on January 05 2021. As per the US-Taliban Agreement of February 29 2020, on January 15, the US troops in Afghanistan stand scaled down from 5,000 to about 2,500.
The recently convened second round of Intra-Afghan talks “have made almost no headway” and negotiations once again stalled as two of the top Taliban negotiators, Abdul Ghani Baradar and Abdul Hakim Ishaqzai, who went to Pakistan “for consultations”, extended their stay. Negotiating teams were still struggling for preparing a substantive agenda for the talks. According to Constable, the role of Pakistan in the peace talk process has taken on sudden new importance.
According to United States Institute of Peace, “this nascent peace process could be an inflection point in more than 40 years of conflict that started with a communist coup in 1978. Diverse Afghan factions will try to negotiate a political agreement that balances power among different ethnic groups, religious visions, and economic and social outlooks that span a rural-urban divide”.
Year 2020 witnessed substantial progress towards peace in Afghanistan, with a number of positive developments, including the conclusion of US-Taliban Peace Agreement on February 29, the start of intra-Afghan negotiations in September, and the agreement on rules and procedures in December. These positive developments paved the way for meaningful progress in the peace talks to end the decades of unrest in country. “We remain hopeful that the year 2021 will witness the dawn of a peaceful and stable Afghanistan,” Pakistan’s Foreign Office said in a statement.
The negotiators are expected to cover contentious issues such as power-sharing and a ceasefire in this round of talks. The beginning of the second round of talks has been welcomed internationally, including by the United Nations and NATO. Pakistan has also welcomed the commencement of negotiations in Doha. In line with the February 29, 2020 agreement, foreign occupation forces withdrew as per the agreed benchmarks. The agreement requires America and its allies to withdraw all their forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.
Though the two negotiating teams had made significant progress by finalizing the rules and procedures by December 2020 and then reconvened on January 05 to negotiate on substantive issues, both sides need to remain constructively engaged and show flexibility in the negotiations for reaching an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement leading to lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan.
According to former Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir, the US alone does not have the capacity of resolving the Afghan imbroglio and needs to cooperate with Russia, China and other regional states for a durable settlement. There is no likelihood of a total reversal of Trump’s withdrawal plans by Biden despite a surge in violence. The US cannot do that even if it wants to, because it “[the Doha agreement] was a popular move, and the US political and military leadership by and large supported that. The Taliban too want an end to the war,” Salman Bashir added.
Likewise, terming the role of Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia in the reconciliation process “crucial,” Van Dyke, a New York-based security analyst said: “The American people are tired of the war. But [there is a fear that] the US military and maybe the CIA [can] be seen as losing the war. Much will depend upon what Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Iran do, or agree to do, to help the US in this regard.” Referring to Russia’s role in Afghanistan, he said there are “responsible” Democrats and Republicans who understand that Moscow wants to get back into Afghanistan. “It will play fairly. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to get rid of the US presence in Afghanistan,” he contended.
AFP reported that the Afghan government negotiators will push to enact a permanent ceasefire and to protect existing governance arrangements. Addressing the parliament on January 04, Afghan Intelligence Chief Ahmad Zia Saraj voiced concerns that the Taliban will attempt to drag out the talks. “We believe the Taliban are planning to drag the talks (out) until the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in the month of May,” he said. “We do not see the Taliban having any intention or will for peace,” he added.
An agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban should usher in an inclusive government that protects the rights of all Afghans, said Abdul Khaliq Haqqani, director of the Herat Department of Hajj and Religious Affairs. “All religious scholars support the peace talks between the government and the Taliban in Qatar and consider them a golden opportunity to stop the bloodshed of Muslims in the country,” he added. “We hope that the two negotiating teams would continue to engage with open-mind and will observe patience, prudence and perseverance to seize this historic opportunity for peace,” Haqqani added.
More than 1,000 residents of Herat Province gathered on January 3 in Herat city to urge the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire during the second round of peace talks. Also, more than 100 religious scholars gathered at the Herat Grand Mosque on December 31 last to denounce the war in Afghanistan and to urge the parties of the conflict to declare a ceasefire. “We ask the government and the Taliban to stop the war so that Afghans can live in comfort,” said Abdul Rashid, a resident of Shindand District, Herat Province. “Our young people should not be killed in war anymore, and we can no longer tolerate the loss of our loved ones,” he added. “The war has continued in Afghanistan for 40 years, and it has not helped,” he said. “This war has resulted in destruction and the killing of ordinary Afghans.”
The Trump Administration’s special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad described as “unacceptable” the current level of violence, including targeted killings. “Those perpetuating the violence seek to undermine the peace process and the country’s future. They do not reflect the will of the Afghan people, who yearn for peace,” Khalilzad said on Twitter. “I return to Doha and the region with expectations that the parties will make tangible progress in the next round of Afghanistan Peace Negotiations,” he said. Khalilzad reiterated his call for both Afghan rivals to quickly reach an agreement on a political settlement and an “immediate significant” reduction in violence or a cease-fire.
However, the former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had acknowledged that since the signing of the deal, US soldiers suffered no deaths in Afghanistan. He said Trump’s peace initiative also has made “incredible progress” toward ending years of Afghan hostilities. “No US servicemen have been killed in Afghanistan in almost a year, and Afghans are finally discussing peace and reconciliation among themselves. Such incredible progress,” Pompeo said in a series of tweets. The US-Taliban agreement has stopped insurgent attacks against US and NATO-led allied troops in Afghanistan. It has also initiated direct peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government in September last.
Pakistan has consistently maintained that there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict and political settlement is the only way forward. Towards this end, Pakistan has been engaged in serious efforts to facilitate an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process. Pakistan’s efforts facilitated important breakthroughs in the peace process during 2020.
Due to fresh allegations and counter allegations between the US and Taliban with regard to a recent surge in violence despite a commitment for peace from both sides, Joe Biden’s administration could reconsider the plans for a complete military pull out from Afghanistan. Both Washington and the Taliban blamed each other for violating the peace accord.
Notwithstanding, war weariness is phenomenal in Afghanistan. Commoners are desperately yearning for peace. Pressure is mounting of intra-Afghan negotiators for agreeing to stop the war. Voice of America reported that on December 31, more than 100 key religious scholars of the western region declared the war in Afghanistan illegitimate and deemed a ceasefire “an obligation” during a gathering in the Herat Grand Mosque. The scholars decried the slaughter of Muslims and said those who kill innocent civilians will be punished by God.
Peace is a priority, because if there is no peace, nobody can meet his or her obligations, said Maulawi Khudadad Saleh, chairman of the Ulema Council in Afghanistan’s western region. “Religious scholars call on the government and the Taliban to declare a ceasefire as soon as possible and create an opportunity for a lasting and inclusive peace,” he said. “The so-called version of Islam that the Taliban promote as an Islamic system is not acceptable to the Afghan people and religious scholars,” he said. “The Taliban do not have the right to choose a [so-called] Islamic system for the Afghan nation, because the current system is [in fact] Islamic.” Every day, innocent civilians are killed, said Toor Muhammad Zarifi, a tribal elder in Herat Province, calling for an immediate stop to the bloodshed suffered by Afghans. “Security forces and the Taliban, who are all the children of this country, lose their lives every day,” he said.
The war has been intensified, and the casualties have increased. The Taliban’s killing of security personnel and of civilians is illegitimate, and the perpetrators will face God’s punishment, according to Maulawi Sayed Shiraqa Qatali, a religious scholar in Herat city. “Civilians and religious scholars call for a lasting and inclusive peace in the country,” “The killing of our loved ones needs to stop, and we cannot tolerate seeing killing, suicide attacks and destruction every day, he added.”
Ayaz Gul reported for the Voice of America on January 04 that the United States has directly accused the Taliban of being behind a recent wave of high-profile assassinations in Afghanistan, urging the insurgent group to stop the violence “for peace to succeed.” These charges came soon after the Taliban accused US forces of launching airstrikes against insurgent-held areas in violation of their 2020 bilateral agreement aimed at ending the long-running Afghan war. A spokesman for US forces in Afghanistan rejected as “false” allegations that they violated the agreement with the Taliban. Colonel Sonny Leggett stressed in a statement that the US military has been “clear and consistent” in its resolve to defend Afghan security forces against Taliban attacks. “We renew our call for all sides to reduce violence,” Leggett said on Twitter. “The Taliban’s campaign of unclaimed attacks and targeted killings of government officials, civil society leaders & journalists must also cease for peace to succeed.”
This is the first time Washington has blamed the Taliban for weeks of largely unclaimed attacks in the Afghan capital, Kabul, and elsewhere in Afghanistan. The violence has over the past two months claimed the lives of at least five journalists, a provincial deputy governor, civilian society activists and a renowned election observer.
The Taliban have denied involvement and instead alleged the violence is the work of so-called “spoilers” within Afghan security institutions to subvert the peace process. Taliban issued a statement accusing US troops of repeatedly carrying out airstrikes on Taliban-held areas in Kandahar, Nangarhar and Helmand provinces “over the past few days” in support of Afghan security forces. According to Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, the airstrikes have hit targets in “non-military zones” in violations of their February 29, 2020, agreement with the US. Mujahid demanded the US military immediately halt the air raids and warned the Taliban “will be forced to respond seriously, and all responsibility shall fall squarely on American shoulders.” Colonel Sonny Leggett termed the allegations as “false” and said the strikes were defensive and renewed calls for all sides to reduce violence.
An Afghan analyst Syed Eqbal also sees prospects of a shift though not very drastic in the US policy towards the Afghan peace process. “There is no doubt that the ultimate thrust in Washington has shifted over the years from defeating the Taliban on the battlefield to a so-called ‘dignified’ exit from Afghanistan, but it [exit of forces from Afghanistan] is going to differ under the new president,” he told Anadolu Agency. He added that the Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani would dearly want the Biden administration not to ‘rush’ with the exit.
According to Rahimullah Yusufzai, “A circle within the Democrats does not want a complete pull out and may force Biden to keep at least one or two bases in Afghanistan even after May”. “The surging violence in Afghanistan may give an excuse to Biden to seek a review of the Doha agreement”, Yusufzai said. “The implementation of the Doha peace agreement could face problems, especially the deadline for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, as the intra-Afghan dialogue is not really making progress and the violence has intensified,” Rahimullah told Anadolu Agency.
According to United Nations Office on Drug and Crime (UNODC), “many parts of Afghanistan’s 5,000 km border suffer from weak control, and drug trafficking and other illicit cross-border activities which are common in these areas”. In particular, The Afghanistan-Pakistan border is of concern to the international community. UNODC has also invaluable contribution towards capacity enhancement of Afghan border police. However, there is lack of will on the part of Afghan government to accrue due benefits out of UNODC efforts.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country at the crossroads of Central and South Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the east and south; Iran to the west; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north; and China to the northeast. Afghanistan has a tradition of not managing its borders, generally it is a free for all status. Keeping the internal turmoil of Afghanistan in view, all neighbours of Afghanistan are struggling to regulate cross border movement of men and material.
Irrefutable evidence has already been put forth, extensively documenting India’s active planning, and promoting, aiding, abetting, financing and executing terrorist activities in Pakistan by using territory of Afghanistan. Pakistan has been consistently sensitizing the international community about India’s nefarious designs and ill intentions to destabilize Pakistan. For durable peace and stability in the region, India must eschew the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
Moreover, there has been no relenting in Afghan government’s role of complacency in India’s terrorist designs against Pakistan via Afghanistan. On and off, Pakistan keeps reminding the Afghan government to take action against individual terrorists and terrorist groups. Pakistan has consistently been raising the issue of effective border management with the Afghan authorities on their side of the border to check cross-border terrorist incidents. On January 07, Pakistan strongly condemned the use of Afghan soil by terrorists for activities against Pakistan. In a statement, FO Spokesperson Zahid Hafeez Chaudhry called upon the Afghan government to take immediate action against terrorists and terrorist groups finding sanctuaries in Afghanistan to target Pakistani security forces. A day earlier, a Frontier Corps (FC) soldier embraced martyrdom when terrorists from inside Afghanistan fired across the international border at a military check post in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s Mohmand district.
According to Reuters, already shaken by a fresh flare-up of violence, the fragile Afghan peace process may face “problems” following the departure of US President Donald Trump on Jan 20. Because of the flare-up political analysts, both in Pakistan and Afghanistan, warn that the fragile Afghan peace process could face “problems”. They suggest that the US might see a shift in its policy towards Afghan peace process during the Joe Biden presidency.
Experts argue that the “incoming President Joe Biden may seek a “review” of the ongoing peace process. Biden might delay the full withdrawal or insist on keeping a small number of troops on Afghan soil even after May on the pretext of “ensuring US security and the war against terrorism.” In November last Biden, according to the US media, had said he was “rightly weary of our longest war in Afghanistan, but there was a need to end the war responsibly, in a manner that ensures we both guard against threats to our homeland and never have to go back.”
According to Dr Sarwat Rauf, “Border mismanagement has been a cause of tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan ever since the formation of Pakistan. The movement across the border has become a security concern due to the presence of militants in the area. Contrarily, a well-managed border can lead to an improved economic and security situation. Pakistan has made a number of efforts for ensuring border management with Afghanistan, and various mechanisms have been put to practice”. For example, Pakistan is in the process of fencing its entire border with Afghanistan, the project is nearing completion.This single factor has reduced terrorist activities significantly. These measures are likely to bring a semblance of border management.
The Kabul government is deeply divided, corrupt, and heavily dependent on foreign aid and military support. The government controls provincial capitals, major population centres, and most district centres. But only around 30 percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts are fully in government hands, with the rest contested or controlled by the Taliban. Hopefully, the Afghan parties would now seize this historic opportunity and work out a comprehensive and inclusive political settlement for durable peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region through Afghan-led and Afghan-owned Intra-Afghan negotiations. Pakistan desires and continues to support a peaceful, stable, united, independent, democratic, sovereign and prosperous Afghanistan.
Bringing a win-win closing to the Afghan conflict is a big challenge for the US as well as the international community. Fault lines are too strong to give way to reconciliation. Taliban have timed out Trump, it will be interesting to see how the things evolve further.
