Interestingly, President Donald Trump continues to behave like the winner of the 2020 presidential elections. He is adamant to ensure substantial troops cut in Afghanistan. On November 13, the Pentagon announced that Trump would sharply reduce the number of US forces in Afghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 by mid-January.
As the Afghan peace process faces uncertainty, Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan rushed to Afghanistan on November 19 and pledged that Pakistan would do everything it could to help reduce the spiraling violence and restore lasting peace and stability in the country. The premier’s maiden visit to Kabul came amid an upsurge in attacks across Afghanistan despite the Afghan government and Taliban launching ongoing peace talks. “Despite the talks in Qatar, the level of violence is rising, so my idea of choosing this time to come was to assure you that Pakistan will do everything whatever is possible we will do to help reduce this violence and in fact move towards a ceasefire,” the PM said at a joint news conference with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani at the Presidential Palace. “We the people and government of Pakistan have only one concern, and that concern is that we want peace (in Afghanistan),” he added. “If you [Afghan leadership] feel there is somewhere Pakistan can help, please let us know.”
The premier pointed out that Pakistan had played a consistent role in the intra-Afghan dialogue.
However, he observed that violence in Afghanistan had increased despite the peace deal inked between the US and the Taliban in Doha in February. “Now to build trust again, we will help the Afghan government in meet their expectations,” PM Imran said.
PM Imran assured the Afghan government of Pakistan’s unflinching support and cooperation to end violence in the neighbouring country and bring about a ceasefire. The prime minister regretted that the people of Afghanistan had suffered for four decades and also expressed his concerns over the violence in the western neighbour affecting Pakistan’s tribal areas.
President Ghani welcomed the PM Imran, saying that his visit was a “step towards strengthening cooperation”. “Our common focus will be poverty eradication and empowerment of our countries,” he added. The Afghan president acknowledged that the Pakistani prime minister had come to Kabul with an “important message to help end violence”. “All of us need to understand that violence is not an answer, but an inclusive politics.” Ghani said PM Imran’s visit had established a “foundation of trust” to continue the journey towards sustainable peace. During their meeting, the two leaders agreed to step up joint efforts to reduce the recent spate of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan through close coordination and intelligence sharing.
During the visit, Pakistan and Afghanistan also issued a document titled “Shared Vision between Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Support Peace and Stability in Both Countries and the Wider Region.” The Shared Vision is aimed at advancing a forward-looking cooperative partnership between the two countries for political, economic and people-to-people exchanges.
In another development US diplomat Angela Aggeler met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa at the military’s headquarters in Rawalpindi and discussed issues related to regional security and Afghan peace process.
The US diplomat appreciated Pakistan’s contributions for conflict prevention in the region and relentless support provided in Afghan peace process. The American official also assured Islamabad of US continuous assistance “for common cause of peace in Afghanistan”. Angela Aggeler’s visit came at a time when Prime Minister Imran Khan had visited Afghanistan earlier in the day.
Republican leaders on Capitol Hill issued stark warnings about making any hasty exit from Afghanistan that could jeopardize the peace process and undermine counterterrorism efforts. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has warned against a potentially “humiliating” pull-out from Afghanistan that he said would be worse than the US departure from Saigon in 1975. Representative Michael McCaul, Republican leader on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said of the plans for Afghanistan, “We need to ensure a residual force is maintained for the foreseeable future to protect US national and homeland security interests and to help secure peace for Afghanistan.”
Pakistan has played a key part in brokering the ongoing peace process, something that has been acknowledged both by Kabul and Washington. However, despite several rounds between the Taliban and Afghan government negotiators, talks have yet to make any major headway.
Many Afghans believe Trump rushed with the peace process. They say that President Trump did not prioritise a responsible pullout of American troops, something that can result in pushing the country back into a civil war. Trump has also been accused of giving the Taliban more concessions during talks and side-lining the Afghan government.
And, one has also to see how Biden handles Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is quietly but aggressively following his strategy to be at least a disrupter in Afghan peace process. Modi wants to retain the capability of using Afghan soil as a launching pad for India’s state sponsored terrorist proxies.
In the run-up to the US elections, Biden had said he would withdraw US troops but was not averse to keeping some counterterrorism forces in Afghanistan. In an interview with CBS in July, Biden had said the US bears “zero responsibility’’ if the Taliban came back to power after the withdrawal of US troops. “Zero responsibility. The responsibility I have is to protect America’s national interest and not put our women and men in harm’s way that’s what I’d do as president,” Biden said. The Deep State strongly feels the necessity of around 9-10000 troops to remain stationed in Afghanistan for eternity to meet strategic objectives beyond Afghanistan.
Trump shall hand over the Afghan war to Biden at about same troop level at which he inherited. Troop basing in Afghanistan checkmates many rivals China, Russia, Iran etc. alongside overarching intelligence gathering about the Eurasian landmass.
However according to Aljazeera, “analysts say Biden will largely stay on the course set by the outgoing president but will hold the Taliban accountable for violence. They say the real difference will be in implementation, with some Afghans expressing hope Biden will give fewer concessions to the Taliban”. Afghanistan’s second vice president, Sarwar Danish, has called upon the incoming Biden administration to review the peace process and apply more pressure on the Taliban to reduce violence.
The Taliban are feeling the heat and looking for an umbrella. According to Arab News, on November 10, Taliban called on the incoming administration of US President-elect Joe Biden to stick to the February agreement. “The Islamic Emirate would like to stress to the new American president-elect and future administration that implementation of the agreement is the most reasonable and effective tool for ending the conflict between both our countries.” According to Andrew Watkins, senior analyst on Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group: “A Biden government is much more likely to listen to concerns of allies, including those in Kabul, and its own national security establishment, and adjust its policy of drawdown and disengagement to ensure continued stability as much as possible”.
Taliban are likely to be the most influential group in any new political setup in Afghanistan, no matter who sponsors such a set; or whatever route it takes. This is a reality with which neither Ashraf Ghani’s Afghan government nor Iran are happy to reconcile with; though both are trying to improve their relations with the future rulers of Afghanistan. However, violence is increasing as all sides continue to violate anti-violence clauses of the February Peace Deal with impunity. United States airstrikes has emerged as a new normal impacting on speed of Doha talks. At least 876 civilians were killed and 1,685 injured as attacks surged by nearly 50 percent in the three months to the end of September.
The United Nations has also raised questions over Al Qaeda with a senior UN official telling the BBC last month that the group was still “heavily embedded” with the Taliban. The US States has, so far, kept up with the schedule of thinning out of troops to reach a zero level by May 2021. A report released in May by the UN said al-Qaeda has between 400 to 600 operatives active in 12 Afghan provinces: Badakhshan, Ghazni, Helmand, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Nimruz, Nuristan, Paktiya and Zabul.
Talking to the visiting Iranian foreign minister on November 11, Prime Minister Imran Khan had reaffirmed Pakistan’s support for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process and hoped that this historic opportunity would be seized by all Afghan parties to secure a political settlement. Highlighting Pakistan’s efforts towards facilitating peace and stability in Afghanistan, the prime minister said there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict. Imran further said that that peace in Afghanistan would be beneficial for the entire region as it would create new opportunities for trade and economic cooperation as well as regional connectivity.
According to Seema Sengupta’s November 11 piece for Asia Times, Intra Afghan “peace process is at risk of collapse as influential groups seek a wider negotiation than US-backed bilateral track”. A new President could mean a renegotiation or a watered-down implementation of February 29 deal; keeping occupation troops in Afghanistan beyond the agreed timeframe of May 2021, on any pretext, could unhinge Taliban from the deal. Both Trump and Biden seek troop reduction in Afghanistan. Unlike Trump, Biden is focused on a more orderly withdrawal and may set his own terms with the Afghan Taliban. Taliban on the other hand hope that the new US administration would stick to the agreement reached between them and Washington on February 29.
