Thursday, September 19, 2024

Is the World Moving towards Another Major War?

Even a cursory glimpse at the human history would easily detect that the history is brimful of many destructive wars, namely the wars of Panipat, the American Civil War, the World War I, and the World War II. Verily, war has always been a compulsory part of human history. Having established the United Nations Organization, the world considered another world war as quite impossible. But unfortunately, increasing arms race, unbridled nuclear proliferation, the revival of neocolonial legacy, dismal performance of the UNO, presence of warmongering media and political leaders and rising regionalism, extremism and terrorism are a few of the many facts which prove only one thing: another world war is impending. Hence, if some serious meticulous, far-sighted and result-oriented steps are not taken, the world would certainly move towards rack and ruin.

Although, the brutal assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, started the WWI, yet occupation on more territories, taking an upper hand in economic, technological, and scientific fields, bringing down rivalries on their knees and exploiting the poor countries were the major reasons of the War. On the other hand, it was the WWI which cultivated the seeds of WWII. The Treaty of Versailles, Hitler’s aggression against small European powers and Germany’s invasion of Poland, inter alia, were the leading causes of WWII. It is estimated that more than 120.5 million people died in these two deadliest wars of human history.

After having discussed the causes of the WWI and WWII, one must look at the facts which prove that another world war is impending. In this context, weak, fragile, and nominal role of the UNO in solving the issues regarding instability in the world can be taken as the first fact which proves that another world war is going to be escalated. Although, the UNO has passed many resolutions on the Kashmir and Palestine issues like S/RES/622, S/RES/1624, S/RES/2334, and S/2019/654, yet the issues could never be resolved. In addition to this, the resolution of the UNO 1483, which held responsible the Iraqi government for possessing weapons of mass destruction without rhyme and reason and allowed America and its allies to attack Iraq under the umbrella of the UNO, has been proved false. Only because of this resolution, thousands of innocent Iraqis got killed. Similarly, the crisis of Darfur, escalation of civil war in Syria, Yemen, Rwanda and Libya are some of the many examples that speak volumes about the inefficiency of the UNO. According to some historians, politicians and military experts, if the League of Nations had been strong, WWII would not have taken place. Thus, the poor performance of the institution of the UNO has been encouraging the WWIII.

Likewise, the revival of the neocolonial legacy is also among the many facts that prove that another world war is knocking at the door of human history. There is no denying the fact that neocolonial legacy was the biggest cause of escalating the WWI. Old colonial powers are bent upon steadily controlling the socio-economic, political and cultural domains of the Third World countries. Today, the way the government of China has pledged a state-owned port of Sri Lanka in exchange for debt relief, China may pledge many other such projects to different developing countries. This would have dire repercussions in the future. Moreover, China’s aggression in the South China Sea, America’s invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel’s mission of occupying Palestine and many other parts of the world are some of the many examples of the revival of the colonial legacy. If the revival of colonial legacy keeps its journey continue, it would surely lead the world towards the WWIII.

Furthermore, the increasing arms race is another fact which proves that WWII is on the horizon. In this context, the recent Indo-US nuclear deal has compelled Pakistan to sign a similar one with china; the Indian purchase of Rafael jets has forced Pakistan to manufacture and bring advancement in JF-17 block III. Similarly, it can be observed that whenever America threatens North Korea, North Korea tests a more destructive ballistic missile than the former one. Indeed, every country in the world has been continuously trying to surpass its rivalries in rapidly expanding arms race. Advancement in the technologies of ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons, cybersecurity, and drone navigation system has posed a serious threat which could escalate into the WWIII.

Similarly, the presence of war-mongering media and demagogues is another omen indicating to the WWIII. In this regard, during the high heated days of Feb.2019, the Indian media and demagogues incited the Indian public against Pakistan and justified war against Pakistan. Had Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javaid Bajwa (who peacefully and farsightedly handled the situation) not been there, a nuclear war between Pakistan and India could have taken place which might cover the whole world. Therefore, it is important here to highlight that this warmongering role of media and demagogues can lead to another world war.

Besides this, rising disrespect for the International Law could also prove as a cause of the WWIII. In this context, India has never followed the instructions of the UNO in the matter of Kashmir issue and Israel has never accepted any recommendation given by the UNO for the peaceful solution of Palestine conflict. Similarly, the illegal attack of America in Abbottabad and continuous violation of the fundamental human rights in Kashmir by the Indian armed forces are some flagrant examples which prove that the mighty still rule the world. If these powerful countries are not deterred on time, the WWIII would be a reality in the future.

In addition to this, uncontrolled nuclear proliferation is another factor which could lead to the projected deadly war. Owing to the development of destructive nuclear weapons, the world has many times warned Iran and South Korea that they should close their nuclear program. Or else, strict action may be taken against them. Despite that, neither Iran nor South Korea has closed its program. Likewise, during the days of tensions in Feb.2019, Pakistan and India were on the final verge of a war with the potential to escalate into a nuclear war.

Likewise, the mounting trade war between the superpowers is another factor which proves that another world war is impending. Recently, America enhanced taxes and tariffs having the worth of 550 billion dollars on Chinese imported goods. In retaliation, china bounced back by increasing taxes of 185 billion dollars on American imported items. Both these countries have blamed each other for stealing intellectual property and technological advancements of each. Besides this, both the superpowers have been blaming each other for the spread of COVID-19. This mounting trade war between the superpowers may lead the world towards the WWIII because our history illustrates that economic issues were also among the causes of the WWI and WWII.

Finally, rising regionalism, terrorism, and extremism are also among the facts which prove that the WWIII might be on the cards. Recently, some Taliban factions have threatened India that they would teach New Delhi a bitter lesson as India has been killing innocent Muslims in the Indian Occupied Kashmir and disrespecting Islam. The situation of the Middle East is also very pathetic due to regional, sectarian, and political conflicts. According to a report issued by the Syrian Centre for Policy Research, more than 470,000 persons had been brutally killed from 2011 to 2016 in Syria and millions have been forced to migrate. In the same way, ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Chad, and Somalia are more than enough to propel the world towards another world war.

Now a big question, how to refrain the world from moving towards WWIII and what should be done for that? Although the situation should not have been allowed to reach the point it has reached now, yet some serious and result-oriented steps can save the world from the destruction of the WWIII. In this regard, the introduction of reforms in the UNO would be the first step towards this destination. Complete elimination of veto power, equal representation of all the member states in the Security Council, application of merit-based appointments of the officials of the UNO, enhancement in the budget of the UNO and improvement in the policymaking and implementing process are some steps that would surely uplift the world from the mire of weakness.

Secondly, responsible role of media is also the need of the hour. Establishment of International Media Alert Centre and International Media Regulatory Authority, organization of effective training sessions to the media personnel and political leaders and strict vigilance of the media are some helpful tools that would strengthen peace in the world and would improve the working of media and democratic governments. In addition to this, only those politicians that promote peace and stability should be promoted.

Thirdly, more focus on strengthening International Law can go a long way towards this destination. In this context, strict sanctions and embargoes should be imposed on those countries that dare to deviate from the right path. Establishment of the International Law’s executive, legislative enforcing bodies would certainly strengthen International Law.

Fourthly, strict vigilance of those countries that are producing weapons of mass destruction by using nuclear technology can also help the world in stopping the WWIII from escalation. In this context, the working of the International Atomic Energy Agency should be improved; enactment of stringent laws for controlling the nuclear proliferation and sanctions should be imposed on those countries that try to make nuclear weapons.

Finally, immediate resolution of all the ongoing regional, territorial, and political disputes is also the need of the hour. The disputes of Kashmir and Palestine should be resolved according to the resolutions of the UNO without wasting precious time. Similarly, peaceful solutions for the crisis of Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syrian should be ensured if the WWIII is to be stopped from escalation. For the purpose, the UNO, the Arab League,the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and OIC should play their active role. To conclude, it can be said that continuous weakening role of the UNO, increasing disrespect for the International Law, violation of the fundamental human rights, unrestrained arms race and blatant proliferation of nuclear technology are some facts which prove that the WWIII is knocking at the door of the human history. Although, there are a few elements namely increasing trade ties, increasing influence of globalization, and spread of awareness among the masses that create barriers in the way of the world which is moving towards the WWIII, yet the introduction of reforms in the UNO, the establishment of strong law making and enforcing agency, and promotion of awareness regarding peace are some steps that should be taken to prevent the war. Given the ruination caused by the previous two wars, the world community should come forward and ensure that all ingredients of the WIII are inhibited before they cultivate strong roots.

Ayaz Ahmed
The writer has completed his M.A. in International Relations and has work as research assistant at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA), Karachi.
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