1 litre of milk costs about a third of the average wage, 1 kg of powdered milk eats up approximately half and a loaf of bread is almost a quarter. Prices double nearly every 15 days! Even the revised IMF year end inflation projection for the country is 200,000%! Over 3 million people have immigrated, and expectations are that next year this exodus could reach 8 million! Welcome to Venezuela!
For a country that was the richest economy in South America and has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world, this is a sorry sight indeed. With 300 billion barrels of crude oil and boasting 20% of global reserves, Venezuela should have been the shinning beacon of the Western hemisphere. What went wrong? And more importantly, what parallels can Pakistan draw from this sad episode? To the first question, a lot! To the second, many! Consider.
Even with all the sorry tale deliberated at length, Maduro has still kept his tenuous hold on power! This is because of one reason alone; the all-powerful Venezuelan army
When democracy was founded in Venezuela in 1958, a three-party system merged into two and agreed to share power and the massive oil revenues amongst themselves and their constituents and supporters respectively. Thus, the very pact meant to secure democracy, came to dominate it. This introduced a ruling elite in the country who supported their own candidates, blocked entry of fresh blood in the democratic system and practiced reactive politics. Suffice to say that this agreement between the two parties equated to fostering corruption at a large scale. In Pakistan until now, it was also a two-party system fronted by the erstwhile PPP and PML(N). Even now, they have their own ruling clique and a broader understanding of sharing wealth amongst themselves. Charter of democracy anyone?!
Years went by with the above dispensation until Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999 and embarked upon a wide range of reforms. Strategic among these were restructuring the judiciary and abolishing the upper house. The former initially seemed helpful but the latter was seen as curtailing the nature of checks and balances that is inherent in a strong democracy. Chavez was begun to be seen as more and more authoritarian in nature as he curtailed the powers of institutions left, right and centre! He saw himself as ‘all in all’ for the people of Venezuela. In Pakistan’s case Nawaz Sharif’s government was ousted in 1999 ironically, when Chavez came to power but not before Nawaz had embarked on a similar path to become ‘all things to all people’! His ambitions to accrue absolute power reflected in his move to declare himself ‘Amir-ul-Momineen’ (Leader of the Believers)! Fortunately, or unfortunately he fell afoul of the military and couldn’t reach the totalitarianism notion he harboured and desired.
In the present, Venezuela’s ruling framework is a hybrid of democratic and authoritarian components. This has come about because of years of erosion of the political system
Even before Venezuela hit this juggernaut of an economic crisis, political scientists agreed that to maintain and extend the power base, personalism and petroleum hardly help. Venezuela’s past and present are bereft with personalities that took on cult status. Hugo Chavez being the biggest example. The corollary of this is quite simple good governance and national prosperity neither comes through one person nor from his or her good intentions. Recall the old English proverb? The road to hell is paved with good intentions! For Pakistan no petrolium, massive personalism! Be it Imran Khan, Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, the Bhuttos or former army rulers.
Personalism generally leads to another idea that can become usually dangerous for a developing nation; i.e. populism. The rhetoric of Hugo Chavez’s populism could be captured in one sentence, a struggle between the righteous and the corrupt elite.This ensured that hard lines were drawn between legitimate and illegitimate points of view and resulted in the ‘I am right, you are wrong’ mentality amongst the population that polarised society. This is because both sides of the divide took it as a high-stakes struggle with everything to lose! In Pakistan nothing could be closer to the truth today. Take a wander down your nearest street and you will see the ‘I am right, you are wrong’ mindset in full action. On the political smorgasbord, the lines are also concretely drawn. Earlier, it was PPP and PML(N) against the establishment. Now, it is Imran Khan’s PTI vs. all others! The nation has no option but to become severely polarised!
As Venezuela’s situation worsened, the Maduro regime detained journalists, shut down websites, arrested politicians and took away powers of the National Assembly
Furthermore, Chavez’s administration was not only besieged by personalism and populism but also by ruling through dictate. Since 2000, and when there was no way through the democratic setup, Venezuela was governed by a set of executive decrees. Moreover, Chavez used to declare his critics and political opponents routinely as enemies of the people and state. In Pakistan successful legislation is hardly on the cards especially in this vitriolic and polarised environment. Thus, much of the current crop of work is being done through presidential ordinances.With regards to recent leaders handling criticism, the less said about it the better. It goes without stating that any sort of dissent even constructive is thought of as unpatriotic in today’s environment.
The 2002 coup confirmed to Chavez that authoritarian support was needed to cling to power and enact whatever reforms needed
In the same vein, when Chavez returned to power after the coup in 2002,he branded the opposition as unpatriotic and “trying to sell out Venezuelan interests”. For Pakistan this is also familiar ground. Recent memory suggests that any government declares the opposition parties to be ‘sell outs’. Remember that during the parliamentary elections of 2018, Nawaz Sharif was linked to Indian businesses and business men. Imran Khan is regularly but incorrectly tagged as part of a Jewish conspiracy. While in the late 80s Benazir Bhutto was deemed a security risk wrongly so and said to have sold out to the Indian Government!
Since 2002, and because of Chavez treating the opposition as unpatriotic and against the state, politics became a zero-sum game
Since 2002, and because of Chavez treating the opposition as unpatriotic and against the state, politics became a zero-sum game. Media outlets came under pressure and some were suspended. Independent institutions were no longer such as they came to be seen as sources of danger. Labour unions were weakened by blacklists or replaced outright. When courts defied Chavez, he suspended unfriendly judges and crammed the supreme court with loyalists. This exacerbated the already acute polarisation in the country and destroyed any likelihood of compromise. In Pakistan PML(N) tamed the judiciary to its will by packing the upper judiciary with loyalists and lambasting them, and even physically charging the supreme court building when decisions didn’t go its way. PEMRA, the electronic watchdog is routinely accused of taking action against media houses that are not aligned with the direction of the government of the day. Recently, Imran Khan reprimanded the judiciary and asked it to “renew people’s faith in the judiciary” eliciting a strong response from the supreme court chief justice!
Extending the point about the labour unions a bit further, Chavez hired 100,000 untrained supporters into Venezuela’s biggest petroleum company Petróleos de Venezuela or PDVSA after he fired 18,000 company workers because of continuing strikes.It is said that afterwards, budget from the company was diverted towards his political base and cronies. In Pakistan former governments of the PPP and PML(N) are accused of doing almost the same with national institutions such as the PIA and Pakistan Steel Mills. So much so that it has been a slow, steady and arduous task to remove the aura of cronyism from these once centres of excellence!
The 2002 coup confirmed to Chavez that authoritarian support was needed to cling to power and enact whatever reforms needed. For this, he banked on the support from extremist elements called ‘the collectivos’. As they gained power, they also started to challenge police for control. And in some extreme circumstances expelled the police from select areas within Caracas itself! For Pakistan years of confusion in Karachi had rendered virtual ‘no go’ areas with the MQM controlling vast swathes of the territory. Once upon a time, even the local police couldn’t enter these areas! Additionally, PML(N) routinely seeks support from far-right organisations within the heartland of Punjab.
Furthermore, Chavez’s administration was not only besieged by personalism and populism but also by ruling through dictate
Venezuela’s saga of problems and personalism didn’t end with the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013. Nicolás Maduro, Chavez’s protégé, took power with the slimmest of victory margins 1.6%! With a crumbling economy and low oil prices, he sold patronage to garner support and stay in power. For Pakistan patronage has always been the oil that greases the wheels of government and bureaucracy. All Pakistani political parties without fail use this to get into office and stay there!
As Venezuela’s situation worsened, the Maduro regime detained journalists, shut down websites, arrested politicians and took away powers of the National Assembly. In Pakistan a similar story has been unfolding for a number of years. NAB was setup by General Pervez Musharraf for across the board accountability but has been used by successive administrations to hound the opposition into submission to such devastating impact that parliament itself becomes toothless! This is notwithstanding that ‘where there is smoke, there is fire’! Media outlets such as GEO and ARY routinely face the ire of PEMRA. Senior and serious journalists are regularly missing, and under pressure, the supreme court of Pakistan has had to take up the quest of recovering them!
Personalism generally leads to another idea that can become usually dangerous for a developing nation; i.e. populism
In the present, Venezuela’s ruling framework is a hybrid of democratic and authoritarian components. This has come about because of years of erosion of the political system and the trust that it should have transferred into the population it was supposed to look after! This cocktail is a highly unstable and flammable mix! There are no specific internal rules, ad-hocism is the name of the game and rival factions contest aggressively for power. In the same way, Pakistan’s history is chequered with examples of civil and military rule. This is reflected in democracy (political parties generally) and authoritarianism (establishment and some political personalities) making up the numbers for the whole of Pakistan’s independence! Today, and even within PTI’s nascent government, opposing power centres compete fiercely for control i.e. Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Jahangir Tareen. It seems that this still is ‘old wine in a new bottle’!
Currently, and because of only enjoying the financial boom and not preparing for the fiscal bust, income disparity is astronomical in Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela! His loyalists don’t feel the pinch but the person in the street does. This is exactly the same in Pakistan. There are two types of Pakistans! One for the rich, affluent and well connected. And one for the poor, downtrodden and isolated. The financial disparity is such that the former group makes up approximately 10% of the population while the latter group, almost 90%!
Even with all the sorry tale deliberated at length, Maduro has still kept his tenuous hold on power! This is because of one reason alone the all-powerful Venezuelan army is still on his side even after Juan Guaidó the self-proclaimed interim president implored it to switch sides in the best interest of the people of Venezuela. In Pakistan, the powerful establishment supports the current PTI government but is said to be watching closely. The more things change, the more they remain the same!
For a country that was the richest economy in South America and has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world, this is a sorry sight indeed
This is where eerie similarity between Venezuela and Pakistan ends. There are two fateful actions that Venezuela took where Pakistan hasn’t followed suit yet! One, unable to pay for subsidies, manifesto promises, welfare programmes and burgeoning public sector, Maduro printed more money and then printed some more! This led to sustained hyperinflation, communal unrest, street violence, growth of black markets and collapse of the social fabric of Venezuela! Two, the oil glut of the early years meant nationalisation of a majority of Venezuelan companies. This resulted in parallel and poor performing bureaucracies which were never reformed. Hence, Venezuela ended up importing everything without diversifying the economy right until oil prices dropped in 2014, leaving the country in severe debt and leading it to the edge of complete collapse it stands on today! There is no doubt Pakistan is going through challenging times and that there are a lot of similarities it shares with Venezuela’s past. But it also has the opportunity to look ahead with a young, energetic and seemingly good-intentioned team at the helm. At the same time, the powers to be should learn from the past so that these mistakes are not repeated in the future because as George Santayana says “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”!
