Brief Overview of the Situation
The recent move on Kashmir by Modi and his fascist BJP/ RSS Regime has changed the security landscape of the region. The said landscape was mostly at a stalemate level for many decades because previous Indian regimes never touched the special status of Kashmir that was given as a result of Instrument of accession agreement with Nehru’s secular India. Even though both Pakistan and India fought wars on Kashmir at different level of intensities, but the current escalation trajectory is dangerous since level of escalation is unique from previous patterns. The additional troops deployment and possible ethnic cleansing attempts from RSS goons supported by Indian regular and para military forces may escalate the situation to an alarming level.
The new pattern from Modi’s Hindutva ideology emerged this time is the aggressive pursuance of BJP/RSS agenda that was written in its manifesto for many decades. Previous BJP governments were not able to accomplish this agenda due to many internal factors including secular and powerful moderate voices within India and of course its secular constitution. It was required to have a fanatic leader like Modi to be in power to fulfill the BJP and RSS agenda. Moreover, the step by step and systematic induction of RSS goons at the government administrative levels including bureaucracy, police, military and judiciary has provided a boost and confidence amongst the RSS Rankin-files that the time has come to pursue the long-awaited agenda. So, the first step taken in this regard was to revoke the Kashmir special status. This unilateral move has the huge consequences towards people of Kashmir, Pakistan as a sovereign state and to the Muslims living in India and Bangladesh (so called Akhand Bharat context).
As per Indian defence minister Raj Nath Singh, now the issue to talk about is Pakistan administered Kashmir. This is exactly why article 370 was revoked and indulging IOK as its union territory. Pakistan has to react with all possible measures that can be taken to safe guard the rights of Kashmiri people including persistent pursuance to the UNSC, forming Kashmir government in exile recognized by Pakistan and taking issue to the international court of justice. These all measures require aggressive and intelligent diplomacy from Pakistan side. One aspect I have personally noticed during this ongoing conflict is the semi-weakness of our foreign policy domain. We have learnt from various sources that UAE is about to give a biggest award to Modi and Saudis are investing huge sum of money into Indian Reliance refinery at Jamnagar Gujrat. On the top of it, the absence of practical support from OIC group for Kashmir except one ceremonial statement is indicating some serious gaps as far as diplomacy is concerned.
Countering Indian Encirclement
If we see the regional strategic landscape, India is trying at various levels to set up foot hold around Pakistan’s area of common interest. Example is Indian investment in Afghanistan and Iran along with other hidden plans against Pakistan using 5th generation proxies. We must keep in mind always that Pakistan is just like a strong strategic balancer that is preventing Indian expansion westward because there is no other way India can expand except West. Similarly, India is trying utmost to control naval passage ways from UAE to Oman through various influential means. The huge economic interests of gulf countries in India are facilitating the fulfillment of Indian ambitions. So, it seems that India is trying to encircle Pakistan from every side possible along with heavy naval build up to contain Pakistan’s trade.
I have said many times before that the above-mentioned enormous challenge requires multi-pronged approach on many fronts, mainly including strategic, economic and diplomatic fronts. We should not expect every country to be on same page with us if we don’t do certain actions and fulfill certain criteria that basically applies also to the foreign policy. Having said that, however, we cannot say a total failure of our diplomacy during ongoing Kashmir issue because Pakistan was able to internationalize the issue at UNSC with help from China. India tried utmost to stop the UNSC session to be held but failed miserably. Also attitude of Russia and other members was different than was in the past. So, in that sense, our diplomacy was not bad. But my point is why our middle east allies are so keen to develop economic relations with India at the expense of Kashmiri blood.
Strong and effective foreign policy has some basic powerful ingredients that dictate and determine the strength of a nation in world political arena. On the top of the list, is the narrative of that country as a whole. Pakistan has a strong military establishment and solid defence related infrastructure along with effective nuclear deterrence, so we must pay attention to other ingredients for laying out an effective foreign policy. No country can get a proper place in the word without having a mix blend of maneuvering tools like strong economic model, infrastructure and military strength.
Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must show mussels wherever and whenever required. We must adopt little bit bossy attitude If situation arrives and Must forget lousy and apologetic attitude. Many countries have defence or semi defence pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. For example, Pakistan is taking active part in 34-nations Saudi led military Alliance. Use this platform for selling military equipment, bilateral relations for trade, visa on arrival agreements, military training and other giant economic deals. Pakistan Must work aggressively for getting military access to IOR and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Brunei. A lot needs to be done in this domain.
Defending our exclusive economic zone is the prime factor in our naval domain. Although Pakistan is enforcing all international regulations within its EEZ, yet effective presence is utmost important in order to let enemies know about level of seriousness when it comes to defending our huge EEZ. We must keep in mind that Indians will try to contain our strategic and trade interests in the EEZ once after establishing strong foothold in UAE and Oman. The Pakistan’s naval strength increase is a very important item and should be given proper and immediate attention to safe guard our trade and sea borders.
Leveraging SCO Membership & CPEC – Powerful Tools for Foreign policy maneuvering
Pakistan’s foreign policy always influenced by western oriented thinking with strong interaction with NATO. Many historical examples can be given like Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. But the incidence after 9/11 and consequent events compelled Pakistan to rethink its global engagement as far as dealing with big powers is concerned. The opportunity came through Gwadar port and CPEC that opened the doors for another power axis that is China and Russia. Moreover, Pakistan became full SCO member recently gives clear indication in western bloc that Islamabad is responding to strategic paradigm shift due to consequence of war on terror and unilateral expansionism. This club has been the potential center for regional geo politics as well as economic wellbeing under OBOR. Pakistan has the key status due to flag ship CPEC project. This bloc has the huge potential to extend CPEC scope to Central Asian states, Caucasus and deep into Russia. If Iran is added, it could involve Caspian potential. The challenge is to benefit from such a power bloc into our economic wellbeing and geo strategic gains for example like Kashmir issue. The challenge here is how to maintain fair relations with NATO countries specially United states. This enormous challenge requires an aggressive foreign policy and a very well-motivated foreign office staff. The successful caliber in foreign policy terms is to keep relations with both blocs but having predominant tilt towards the region. NATO and western countries have less economic stake in Pakistan rather than expansionism. On the other hand, China is there with full economic agenda. The best practice will be to use pros and cons of both rival blocs and use them in interests of Pakistan. Also keep in mind that fair practices and stand on principles will be the ultimate strength in the diplomacy world.
Pakistan – Turkey Strategic Alignment
Pakistan must also leverage Turkey and its influence keeping in mind historic perspective. I am totally convinced that Turkey is one of the friendly countries that will come to support Pakistan in the time of needs. Pakistan has many tools and maneuvers in all aspects and alignment with Turkey should be another strategic maneuver that will be beneficial not only for both countries but also for regional stability. Turkey has influence on many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment. The joint Pakistan Turkish Partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for middle east and IOR. Elaborating further, Turkey has expansion plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical facts so Pakistan Must help Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another. The joint development of military hardware, research n development and economic investment on each other’s side will help boost the relations and partnership between these two brotherly countries. The diplomatic stance of Turkey on Kashmir is always in favor of Pakistan. China is already in a strategic partnership with Pakistan due to CPEC. Pakistan needs to boost aggressive diplomatic advances in order to fully leverage from SCO membership at all levels. Due to this status, Russia is not Indian ally any more in the sense as we used to observe in the past.
Kashmir Government in Exile
Employing aggressive diplomacy, in order to reply Indians, Pakistan has many choices to play around since Modi is openly announcing the proxy support inside Pakistan. I have got some suggestions from other resources that may worth considering and this is basically about Kashmir ongoing crisis. Since India has made a political move, not a military one, therefore, Pakistan’s out of the box answer must also be of political nature and unsettling enough for India.
I am not sure to what extent these below suggestions are workable but seeing volatile situation in Kashmir and heavy military build up by Indians may force Pakistan to think about such move.
Pakistan might Unilaterally call off Shimla Accord since India has abrogated the accord & integrated a territory declared disputed in that accord. This would change the status of Line of Control back to Cease Fire Line. The Prime Minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir already stated in his speech that line of control (LOC) is not valid any more and now this is Cease Fire Line.
It would also deny India an opportunity to tell others that India-Pakistan has a bilateral accord to settle disputes like Kashmir. It might go to a next level if needed and Azad Jummu & Kashmir Government to declare independence of entire State of J&K. This might act as a ‘government in absentia’ for Indian occupied part as well. Apply for membership of the UN and OIC, where Pakistan should strongly support its membership. India did the same with Pakistan in 1971, when it supported Bangladesh government in exile. This step alone would change the entire equation. Domestically all people of valley will be energized and get united. At international level, the nature of dispute would change from Territorial issue between two states to that of self-rule of Kashmiris. Security council resolutions which are dormant, will now become most relevant. The new independent State of Azad J&K can still keep defence pact with Pakistan to defend it against Indian aggression, if any. As soon as Azad J&K get the UN membership, it can also invoke International Court of Justice to declare instrument of accession being void as that accord as well as Constitutional agreement made by the past governments with Indian Union has been violated by India, and that would make Indian occupation illegal.
I am not giving any weight to the argument that if Pakistan forms such government in Exile, it may not be welcomed by other countries and can be back fired. In fact, only Pakistan has to recognize such government in abstentia. If couple of other countries favor Pakistan in this regard, it will be a great diplomatic win for Kashmir and Pakistan.
Concluding Remarks
Bottom line is, Pakistan must be ready to adopt such extreme measures in the foreign policy domain that were never seen before. The bold step would be recognizing Kashmir as a government in Exile. Same way as India did by revoking article 370 that practically nullifies the Kashmir accession to Indian Union. Pakistan must move in all direction to balance the strategic equation as far as neighboring countries are concerned. Challenge is to negate the terrorism proxies menace coming from west side (Iran and Afghan sides) in the form of TTP terrorist and Proxies like Kul-Bhushan. I am sure by fencing the Iran Afghan borders will improve the situation. Realignment with friendly SAARC countries, Turkey and SCO bloc is main area to be focused along with expanding diplomatic missions in Latin America and deep inside Africa. Moreover, Pakistan must focus on gaps in foreign policy domain and try utmost to cover those gaps in terms of fulfilling essential power ingredients. This might take some time, but activities must be started as soon as possible. The time is a big measure in such case, and I don’t think we have much time to waste.
