Abstract
Speaking historically, both littoral and landlocked countries relied heavily on sea routes to carry on trade because such pathways of trade were always cheaper and safer. Similarly, the emergence of deep seaports has given more importance and credence to burgeoning trade via sea routes around the world. In this regard, both the Gwadar and Chabahar Ports have recently emerged as two major ports at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz through which about one-third of the world oil passes annually; oil is a strategically important resource for countries because it fuels the engine of their economies and immensely assist in military activities. What is important to note is that two rival countries, India and China, are heavily busy with developing the two ports with financial and technical assistance. That has, therefore, generated a debate whether there is likely to be competition or cooperation between the two ports. This article attempts to spell out the brief history of both ports and their ongoing construction, Chinese and Indian objectives behind them and the factors which make Gwadar Port dominate the regional trade[1] viz-a-viz the Chabahar Port. An attempt is also made to explain in details the effects of Chinese engagement with Gwadar Port. As felt necessary, a way forward is given for Pakistan and China to make the Gwadar Port more secure and productive in the foreseeable future.
Introduction
In the changing dynamics of global politics sea trade has started gaining increasing importance. This has, therefore, augmented the significance of two strategically-important sea ports of Asia, namely, the Gwadar Deep Sea Port and the Port of Chabahar. These two ports have the potential to make Pakistan and Iran the center and hub of regional trade, thus helping both the countries reap rich dividends in the region. What is pertinent to mention is that both ports are located quite close to each other; just 70 kilometers away from each other. More importantly, two regional rivals China and India are financially engaged with the Gwadar Port and that of Chabahar respectively to dominate the regional sea-borne trade. Resultantly, this has led some experts of sea ports to debate whether both ports are competitive/ rival or complementary/sister to each other. When seen in a realistic perspective both ports seem to be highly competitive and the Gwadar Port is more likely to outshine the Port of Chabahar not only in the South Asian region, but also in the Gulf.
Literature Review
Though the politics of regional sea ports have gained much attention and increasing momentum in recent years, there is still, unfortunately, paucity of relevant material which, therefore, makes it quite difficult to objectively conduct a detailed research on the same subject. This scribe has relied heavily on op-ed pieces written by experts of seaports. Moreover, a large collection of detailed research articles published in reputable national and international journals have been consulted to add value to the piece of research. For the deep study of the Port of Chabahar, the book of Dr. Mahmoud Baloch titled ‘Chabahar: The Golden Port of Iran’ has also been consulted. Interviews of officials closely connected to both the Gwadar Port and that of Chabahar have also been conducted to include first-hand information to the opinion.
The Importance of Gwadar and Chabahar Ports
The Significance of Chabahar Port
What is unique about the Chabahar Port is that it is located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz through which a third of the world’s sea-borne oil passes through it every day. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic artery linking Middle East crude producers to key markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.[2] Besides, this port also connects Iran with land-locked but uranium-rich Afghanistan and oil-rich Central Asian Republics (CARs). This helps India greatly, the main financer of the Chabahar Port to connect its state of Rajasthan to CARs via the same port. If the United States withdraws the crushing sanctions on the crisis-ridden Iranian economy anytime in the foreseeable future, the Chabahar Port has the capacity, capability and potential to help the Iranian government revitalize the economy, hence making Iran one of the top economies not only in the Gulf but also in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). More importantly, if the need is
felt in the foreseeable future, Iran can deprive the world of ‘40 percent of oil’ [3] by means of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. If the US with its allies of the Middle East continues to strangulate Iran by imposing crushing sanctions on the economy of the Islamic Republic, Tehran will probably resort to taking this decision of blocking the strait.
The Geo-economic and Geo-Strategic Importance of Gwadar Port
Quite similarly, the Gwadar Port possesses the same importance as that of Chabahar does. But, the slightly different and important location of Gwadar Port makes it more significant than that of Chabahar’s in terms of dominating the regional trade. The Gwadar Port provides a shorter, more safe route to countries in the CARs and China to trade with Africa and Europe.
In the changing dynamics of global politics, the sea trade is getting complex with more focus on commercial activities and economic prosperity. In this politics Gwadar port has its unique strategic and geopolitical importance because the port is the warm water and deep sea port of Pakistan and situated at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz region which holds 2/3rd world oil reserves. Moreover, this third important deep sea port of Pakistan is located at the cross junction of international sea shipping and oil trade routes. The port would connect three regions i.e. Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East. Importantly, the world economies are in need of energy resources and surprisingly Gwadar port can provide the only feasible and safe route to use the potential natural resources of Central Asia, whose “market access is hindered by political and geographic conditions, including continued Russian influence”, as remarked by Robert Kaplan, celebrated geo-strategist. As a result, the port has special influence on local, national, regional and global politics.
Historically speaking, Gwadar was purchased by Pakistan in 1958 from the Omani Sultanate at the cost of US $3 million. During its construction phase from 1988-1992 a small port was constructed. In 2007, General Musharraf inaugurated Gwadar deep sea port. From 2007-2012, Gwadar port remained under Port Singapore Authority (PSA) but due to its poor performance, the port was handed over to China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) in 2013. Since then the construction work has been carried out at a rapid pace. Along with Gwadar port, building of Gwadar city, Gwadar power generation plants and Gwadar International Airport are the proposed projects under construction and
development. The port has begun shipment, seasonal cargo and commercial trade but it is still under construction and it has been reported that port would be fully operational by the end of this year.[4]
Are Gwadar and Chabahar Ports complementary or Rival? A Realistic perspective
Views of Leadership of Iran and Pakistan: a Liberal Approach
According to the liberal school of thought which has been adopted by leaders of both Pakistan and Iran, it is categorically stated that the chance and possibility is present to make both sea ports supportive of each other in the shifting waters of the region. They further added that such a meaningful cooperation between Pakistan and Iran would result in a win-win situation, hence goading Islamabad and Tehran into jointly safeguarding the ports. “Liberals basically hold a sort of pessimistic view”[5] of cooperation and resultant win-win situations in all matters due to coordination and cooperation. Surprisingly, the incumbent leadership of both Pakistan and Iran hold the same view that the two ports are largely sister ports and they should be like this in the foreseeable future. While meeting with Ali Osat Hashemi, the governor of the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan, former Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri said that Gwadar and Chabahar would be made ‘sister port cities’, and railway track would be laid between them on priority basis[6]. Similarly, the Iranian leadership has repeatedly stressed on the point that ‘both sea ports should be made complementary’[7] in the region.
In the Prism of Realism
The foundation stone of realism school of thought is largely premised on the oft-quoted point that relations between international personalities (states) are shaped, channelized and influenced by core national interests of sovereign states. Due to the anarchical nature of the world structure, most states, especially the big powers, employ their all existing and potential sources of national power to gain a relative
hedge over other rival states in their backyard and sphere of influence. In precise words, cut-throat competition ‘(competitive relations)’[9] plays a driving role in terms of shaping the behavior and resultant policies of states.
While taking the realistic viewpoint into consideration with relations to Gwadar and Chabahar Ports, it becomes crystal clear that there is likely to be a sort of neck-neck competition between the two ports rather than cooperation. What is pertinent to mention here is that the tug of war between rapidly rising China and American-backed India would make both sea ports highly rival and competitive to each other. Both New Delhi and Beijing have lately locked horns against each other in a sort of cold war with the intent to dominate South Asia and thus become the hegemon in the region. Needless to mention here that America has thrown its all-out support behind India in an effort to checkmate and ultimately contain China in the South Asian region. Famous structural realist John J Mearsheimer has repeatedly said that ‘China will not rise peacefully, and America will go a great length to contain its peer-competitor, China.’[10]
‘What is important to mention is that both China and India are spending substantial amount of money on the two ports,’[11] hence the nature of relations between New Delhi and Beijing would play the central role in determining whether there could be competition or otherwise between Gwadar and Chabahar Ports. As mentioned earlier, both India and China are at cross purpose and are inclined to dominate the politics of the South Asian region. As a result, there would be a sort of cut-throat competition between Gwadar and Chabahar ports in the near future, especially after these are completed and operational. This scribe is of the opinion that it is the Gwadar Port that would outshine and leave far behind the Chabahar Port due to certain factors as mentioned below:
Factors Making Gwadar Ports More Advantageous
The following factors/ points indicate that the Gwadar Port is highly likely to have a hedge over the Chabahar Port.
1. The Planned Capacity
As far as sea ports are concerned it is of paramount importance to mention that the size of a sea port plays a pivotal role in making a country dominate trade of the region. ‘While Gwadar’s natural layout and depth enable the largest ships to dock there, both Chabahar and Dubai lack these advantages. The maximum planned capacity of Chabahar is 10 million to 12 million tons per annum, compared to Gwadar which will have the capacity of 300 million to 400 million tons once it is fully operational.’[12] The underlying reasons include that with a capacity to handle substantial amount of cargo a sea port then can help speed up exports and imports of goods as it can anchor many ships at a time. More importantly, such a port can also encourage neighboring landlocked countries to use that port as a conduit to connect to the world. Therefore, one can see that almost all Central Asian Republics are increasingly interested in using the Gwadar Port as a conduit to access the world.
2. The Depth of Gwadar Port
Apart from the capacity, the depth of a sea port carries equal importance. In this regard, the depth of the Gwadar Port is far deeper than that of Chabahar. The planned depth of the latter is 35 to 36 feet. It is quite astonishing to note that the planned depth is 60 feet of the Gwadar Port. All this begs a major question: what is the significance of such deep depth of the Gwadar Port? The deep depth basically allows large cargos to approach the Gwadar Port and onload or offload containers. On the other side, the Port of Chabahar does not have this advantage and hedge to allow big ships to anchor. Needless to say that most landlocked countries prefer ships with large capacity to those of limited capacity to save time and money. Therefore, ‘the Gwadar Port has always been the choice of the CARs.’[13]
3. The Afghan Security Factor
Security plays a pivotal role in the success of a sea port as it ensures the uninterrupted supply of goods and containers. But war-stricken Afghanistan is beset with a lingering insurgency that it would bring about issues for India to rely on the Chabahar Port to access the CARs via Afghanistan. ‘Since the US-led invasion in 2001, Afghanistan has never been as insecure as it is now. The Taliban control more territory than at any point since the removal of their regime 17 years ago.’ [14] There is no gainsaying the fact that the Afghan Taliban loath the supremacist BJP government of India because of its suppression of Muslims in both India and in the Indian Occupied Kashmir. ‘Although India has enjoyed cordial terms with the successive post-2001 governments of Afghanistan together with its $2 billion investment there, the security situation is inadequate in major areas. Besides, the Taliban, the major insurgent group in Afghanistan has no love for India, since the latter historically supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.’[15] Though Balochistan is grappling with a sort of low-level insurgency, yet the deployment of a special security division meant to safeguard the Gwadar Port has greatly secured the suburbs around the port. However, some attacks have taken place recently such as the one in which ‘the personnel of the Pakistani armed forces were killed on the Makran costal highway’[16]. This attack has resulted the army to further beef up the security in the province, especially around the Gwadar city. In a nutshell, the relative peace in Balochistan compared to that of Afghanistan is likely to make the Gwadar Port more important than Chabahar in the near future.
4. The Experience of China
This is the first time India has got itself engaged into a foreign port development venture with such vigor. [17] History shows that New Delhi has no practical experience of building major sea ports, so ‘it has started facing impediments with respect to the construction of the Chabahar Port.’[18] On the contrary, Gwadar is not only developed by China which has a wealth of experience in overseas infrastructure projects but the government of Pakistan has handed over the control of port to China. Tehran won’t do the same, at least judging by the existing agreement with India. According to China’s Ministry of Transport, ‘Chinese companies have participated in the construction and operation of a total of 42 ports in 34 countries under its Belt and Road initiative launched five years ago. These ports include Piraeus Port in Greece, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and Gwadar Port in Pakistan.’[19]
5. The Iran Question
The success of the Chabahar Port is largely dependent on the revival of the Iranian economy. When the Iran nuclear deal was signed in July 2105 between Tehran and the P5+1, it was widely speculated that Iran would get $ 100 billion from sanction relief and thus the Iranian economy would jumpstart its growth. But the Trump administration unilaterally left the deal in May 2018. ‘Iran may now face one of the worst financial crises in its history. Even though the nuclear deal allowed Iran to access about $100 billion in frozen assets, this has proved largely inadequate to revivify the faltering Iranian economy.’[20] Though the US has granted a waiver to India to continue oil imports from Iran and another waiver from sanctions for New Delhi’s role in the Chabahar port and the development of a railway line from the Iranian port city to the Afghan border[21], yet the Modi government cannot speed up the work on the port. ‘India has recently stopped importing oil from Iran after American waivers granted to eight buyers expired early the month of May 2019.’[23] While, there is no such sanctions on the Gwadar Port, thus China can develop the port with relative ease and speed without any obstacles.
6. The Afghanistan Pressure Point
Despite enhanced Indo-Afghan diplomatic, political, and economic connections, Pakistan’s role and influence in Afghanistan has not withered. Though the central government of Afghanistan leans more toward India, Pakistan has connections with several ethnic groups who represent a major portion of Afghan society.[24] The US is making an effort to conclude a peace deal with the Afghanistan Taliban, which could allow the latter to hold a powerful position in the upcoming government in Afghanistan. This will, therefore, increase Pakistan’s leverage on the Afghanistan Taliban. Presumably, Islamabad could employ the card of the Taliban any time in the foreseeable future to obstruct the flow of Indian trade to the CARs. Additionally, ‘Pakistan and China are vigorously working together on the $64 billion the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which culminates in Gwadar. China would not want such a huge investment going to waste. Thus, there is every possibility that Beijing and Islamabad join hands to obstruct the political and economic maze of Afghanistan, so as to obstruct India’s dreams of reaching Central Asia.’[25]
7. Partnerships and Rivalries
There is no economic competition between Pakistan and China. Chinese investment in Pakistan is also aimed at boosting trade with the rest of Asia, and Pakistan won’t become a hurdle in China’s quest to reach the Middle East and Persian Gulf. That’s because Pakistan is currently on the receiving end of a huge Chinese investment, which will revamp Pakistan’s feeble economic structure. The infrastructural development at Gwadar at the CPEC in general will help Pakistan to enhance trade with both China and the Middle East, but this doesn’t necessarily mean it would interrupt the flow of Chinese trade and goods to the same destination.[26] However, the Iran-India dynamic is different. Despite the US withdrawal of the July 2015 agreement, Tehran is still trying its level best to come into the mainstream international arena by hastening trade in order to put its blocked economic wheel back on track. Thus, Iran seems unlikely to permit India to actualize its Central Asian dream at the costs of Iranian interests.
The Way Forward for the Effectiveness of Gwadar Port Given the existing security issues and leadership crisis deeply embedded in the politics in Pakistan, it is important to establish a robust and effective police force in Balochistan in general and in Gwadar in particular with the objective to provide around-the-clock security to the port city and foreign engineers who are associated with the project. To maximize this objective, the border with Iran should be fully fenced and the undercover Indian spy network to sabotage CPEC should also be unearthed and dismantled. Pakistan should also clear the ambiguity about a string of Chinese-funded projects related to the Port of Gwadar; as these mega projects are still shrouded in mystery and could well be insidious and obstructive to the final operationalization of the port once the final details are in the know of all and sundry. The low level insurgency still brewing in Balochistan should also be resolved through a political process rather than employing kinetic force. Last but not the least, the deep-seated leadership crisis of Balochistan should also be resolved on war footing; this has created a sort of bad governance, rampant corruption and political instability that do not seem conducive for the early and effectual completion of the said port.
Conclusion
There is no gainsaying to the point that seaports carry increasing significance in today’s world trade. Recently, the Ports of Gwadar and Chabahar have emerged as two important seaports in the South Asian region and the Persian Gulf, respectively. Though the leaderships of Iran and Pakistan have time and again opined that these two ports are sister ports and will likely complement each other. But, the ground realities on the changing dynamics of the world politics, especially that of South Asia, manifest that the two ports are highly likely to be rival to each other. Given the geo-strategic and geo-economic importance of the Gwadar Port coupled with its higher depth, capacity, etc. compared to that of the Chabahar Port, the Gwadar Port would presumably play a more dominating role in the regional sea trade. But, to make the Gwadar Port more effective in the foreseeable future, Pakistan should resolve the insurgency in Balochistan politically, take stringent security measures and solve the protracted leadership and governance crisis of Pakistan in general and Balochistan in particular.
End Notes
[1] The author firmly holds the opinion that the Gwadar Port is highly likely to outshine the Port of Chabahar owing to certain reasons and factors as explained in detail in the article.
[3] Ibid
[4] Ayaz Ahmed, ‘Gwadar Port and Strategic Regional Interest’ Balochistan Point
http://thebalochistanpoint.com/gwadar-port-and-strategic-regional-interests-part-1/
[5] Robert Jackson and Geor Sorensen, ‘Introduction to International Relations, Theories and Approaches’, (Oxford University Press, 2010), 100
[8] Robert Jackson and Geor Sorensen,66
[9] John J Mearsheimer, ‘Can China rise Peacefully?”, National Interest
Accessed on June 8, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204
[10] Ayaz Ahmed, ‘Gwadar Port: Regional Strategic and Economic Interest’ Jahangir World Times, February 8, 2016.
Accessed on June 8, 2019 http://jworldtimes.com/jwt2015/pakistan-affairs/gwadar-port-regional-strategic-and-economic-interests/
[11] Zahid Hussain, ‘The ports of contention’, Arab News, April 19, 2018
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1287611
[12] https://www.dawn.com/news/401199
[13] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45507560
[14] https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/5-reasons-gwadar-port-trumps-chabahar/
[15] https://tribune.com.pk/story/1953507/1-least-14-offloaded-passenger-buses-shot-dead-makran-coastal-highway/
[16] https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/5-reasons-gwadar-port-trumps-chabahar/
[17] https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/indias-chabahar-challenge-gets-serious/
[18] https://gbtimes.com/china-invests-in-42-overseas-ports-under-belt-and-road-project
[19] Ayaz Ahmed, ‘Chabahar’s Fate’, The News International,https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/319717-chabahar-s-fate
[20] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VmPwmQcLBE
[21] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/us-deadline-ends-india-stops-purchasing-iranian-oil/articleshow/69475495.cms
[22] By Muhammad Daim Fazil, Five Reasons Gwadar Triumph Chabahar, Diplomat magazine, June 09, 2016, https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/5-reasons-gwadar-port-trumps-chabahar/
[23] Ibid
[24] ibid
