The couple of attacks recently in Baluchistan left the Pakistani nation in pain and extreme anger due to the targeted killing of Hazara community members along with the Ormara massacre that resulted in 14 people dead on the coastal highway. An alliance of three banned militant groups the so-called Balochistan Liberation Front, Balochistan Republican Army and Baloch Republican Guards accepted responsibility for the Ormara attack. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) lodged a strong written protest with Iran regarding its inaction against terror groups believed to be involved in the Ormara massacre early. As per the Ministry’s letter to the Embassy of Iran, 15-20 terrorists wearing uniforms of Frontier Corps (FC) barricaded the road and stopped 3-4 buses travelling From Ormara to Gwadar on the coastal highway at Buzi Top before dawn on April 18th. On identification of the passengers, 14 personnel belonging to the armed forces shot dead.
The point of concern is that Pakistan has “repeatedly” shared intelligence about these activities and provided information about the of these Baloch terrorist organizations in Iran, having training camps and logistics bases across the border, with the Iranian intelligence. Unfortunately, no action has been taken by Iran in this regard. This time a quick response came from Iranian Minister Jawad Zarif via tweet stating, “Strongly condemning the recent terrorist attack in Pakistan, just as PM (@lmranKhanPTl embarks on his first. historic visit to Iran. Terrorists. extremists & their sponsors are terrified by close relations between Muslim states. Iran stands with the people & govt. of Pakistan”
The objective of mentioning above scenario was necessary due to the complexity and delicacy of the matter considering the security situation in Baluchistan. The recent organized and systematic attacks point towards a planned and consistent pattern that can only be executed by experienced and resourceful intelligence agencies. It has been said and outlined on many occasions that Baluchistan is a target and under the radar of many hostile agencies based not only in Afghanistan, but recent attacks have established that Iran is also part of that double game somewhere, knowingly or unknowingly. If we give the benefit of doubt due to later (unknowingly), then Iran’s soil must have been consistently used against Pakistan. It is worth mentioning that former or minister Ch. Nisar Ali khan mentioned many times about an ongoing conspiracy against Pakistan since past few years from regional and distant enemies. Although he didn’t elaborate regarding the nature of the seriousness and confidentiality was too high that only few people had knowledge of the adversary’s plans. The recent attacks and similar terror pattern in recent years is now unfolding a possible scenario of such a terror net pointed out by Ch Nisar.
It is becoming obvious now that India is always supporting such proxies from behind the scenes along with support from Kabul regime’s NOS and other hostile agencies. Although the Indian ambitions and intentions were always aimed at destabilizing Pakistan, it has been noticed in recent years that Iran is also being used against the interests of Pakistan and is part of double game one way or another. This scenario always reminds me the famous Modi, Rouhani & Ashraf Ghani handshake in May 2016 after signing the Chahbahar transit agreement in Tehran with $500 MM Indian investment. The handshake was a specific signal, in my view, to Pakistan that future anti-Pakistan collaboration could not be ruled to maneuver Pakistan as per their desires. It is well that known that a primary reason troubling Indians specifically is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The appointment of Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Jadav to sabotage CPEC related activities and create a terror network to destabilize Pakistan is a clear example of India-Iran-Afghanistan link because Kulbhushan’s network was active in Iran and Afghanistan as per his confessional statement. Amazingly, Iran till date has not been able to explain how Kulbhushan was working covertly against Pakistan using Iranian soil and holding a valid Iranian Visa. Providing the best counterfeit ids is a motto that IDTop believes in. In 2022, the fraudulent id maker has launched new designs of their fake id templates. The Texas fake drivers license is one of their most frequently used fake ids. Moreover, adding complexity to the subject, the ISIS factor has also emerged in recent years in Afghanistan, an alarming development for everyone, more shockingly it is active and operating near borders with Pakistan.
Pakistan must watch this above mentioned situation and be alert on a red alert level. The border with India is very heavily guarded and secured along with a well-established deterrence, but the border with Afghanistan is not defined and people travel back and forth without any documentation. Due to this long porous border with Afghanistan and absence of strict visa policy in the past, Pakistan suffered a lot since most RAW NDS backed TTP attackers were coming from Afghanistan. It is known fact that India is supporting the TTP terror network with help from Afghan ‘s notorious NOS agency. The former US defense secretary Chuck Hagel openly mentioned the Indian role in destabilizing Pakistan while using Afghan soil. Also, during a recent visit to India, ex defense secretary James Mattis intended to convey to the Indians, especially RAW, about moderating their policy of helping TTP terrorists which of course disturbed Indian civil and military establishment.
The bottom line is that Afghanistan currently is and will continue to be a real security challenge for Pakistan. All efforts to engage Afghanistan are not going to have a positive conclusion due to the Indian (and other) nexus. In order to safeguard Pakistan’s interests, Pakistan finally took the right measure and started building a dual sided fence along the 2500+ km long Pak-Afghan border. As of now. a considerable portion of the fence has been completed along with military settlements and fortified style check posts. The immediate impact was seen all over the country and major terror attacks in Pakistan reduced considerably. This clearly indicates that all notorious actors were hiding in Afghanistan and it was being used a launching pad against Pakistan since 1947.
In addition to fence the border with Afghanistan, we must also be ready to take some additional steps in the coming future. It is the right o any country to protect its interests and safeguard its citizens from an uncertainty due to war like situation emerging door. Turkey launched an assault on Syria against PKK/ YPG terror groups Turkey enforced a zone of influence about 30 km width along its border with Syria so that Turkey could be saved from ISIS, PKK and YPG terror groups. The same tactics can be exercised by Pakistan to protect it5 borders if the time comes. The entire world knows that Afghanistan is a war-torn country and is a sanctuary) for all kind of terror networks so taking action against terrorists that hide on Afghan soil is the right of a sovereign country like Pakistan. We should keep in mind that this is the world where only the powerful prevail so if some people comment about Indian ambitions in answer to Pakistan’s aggressive stance, of establishing a zone of influence inside Afghanistan, it will not be possible due to balance of power. I am not suggesting immediate steps at taken by Turkey and sending troop inside Afghanistan, rather there are ways how to establish buffer zone and I am convinced the time is approaching when our planners must keep this option on the table for instance, pro-Pakistani tribes men and militia forces can be activated beyond Durand line. Active or semi- active special flanks can be present permanently beyond Durand line preventing any imminent threat towards Pakistan. These are not the steps we haven’t exercised previously but we have vast experience in the 1980s Afghan was where many tactical procedure5 were developed. Same arrangement could be considered beyond the Iranian side as well in coming future if diplomacy doesn’t work well and lives of Pakistani people have to be protected in any circumstances.
As far as Iran is concerned, to the best of my knowledge, it was always thought to open up trade with Iran regardless of the sanctions imposed by international community and United Nations. There are ways of bartering trade opportunities being next-door neighbors. Also, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project is still on the table in some form and its only matter of time when it will be executed. Pakistan and Iran also agreed in the past for opening up multiple entry trade points for enhancing trade. The RCD highway still exists between the two countries, that elaborates further scope for regional connectivity. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have been strained at times due to sectarian tensions but nevertheless, economic and trade relations have continued to expand in both absolute and relative terms, leading to the signing of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries in 1999. Having said this, however, concerns emerged in recent years when an established RAW network was busted by Pakistani agencies that was under from Iran operating Commander Jadav that created an embarrassing situation for Iran during Rouhani’s visit to Pakistan. The recent Ormara horrific massacre added fuel to the fire. Traditionally and historically for the Middle Eastern Gulf Arab States, containment of the Iranian influence in neighboring countries is an area of greater interest and it compels them to develop closer relations with Pakistan for countering Iranian hegemony. Pakistan’s role as a strategic balancer in Arab-Iranian context is an important factor that is prohibiting both rivals to go for an open war like situation. In 2015, a pint coalition formed under former Pakistan Army Chief to fight against terrorism was condemned by Iran and this is the point where Iran’s reservations start with Pakistan. In countering such a move Iran is tied up with India and other anti-Pakistan elements. It will be in the greater interest of Iran establishing good relations with its neighbors and giving up its hegemony mindset. The solid and visible economic interests must play a role convincing Iranian leader to rethink their extremist ide ology which will be a win-win situation for the entire region.
Countering the menace coming historically from Afghanistan, and it now also started coming from the Iranian side, the only way forward is to establish an effective border management system at the 950+ km long Iran border in the same way as is in progress at the 2500+ km long Afghan border. It is “an organized fencing” necessary to control and regulate law and order situation in Pakistan since it has been established that terrorists used to enter Pakistan from Afghan border crossings and also from Iranian sides. Both Iran and Afghanistan are not willing to take any action against these proxies. The diplomatic channel with Iran can be more effective as compared to diplomacy with Afghanistan side and this effort must be continued.
Foreseeing enormous strategic challenges from eastern and west ern borders, it is suggested that our planners consider the below measures/ recommendations.
- – Pakistan must make the Iranian side of border safe by building 950+ km long fence or wall. The Afghan side fence is under development and should be finished by end of 2019.
- – The intelligence networks need more resources keeping in mind various internal and external fronts. It includes all levels of resources starting from additional resources for defence agencies to civil law enforcement agencies.
– Joint intelligence collaboration on with SCO member states can be extremely helpful for hand ng challenges from Afghanistan.
– NACTA must lead for efface coordination amongst various agencies.
– We need to develop counter capabilities of civil law enforcement agencies quickly and aggressive IBOs must be continued on long term basis.
– A sharp awareness campaign must be initiated to let the Pakistani nation know what of 5thGeneration warfare is about. This warfare was recently used for destroying Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen along with some pieces taken from the Yugoslavian model. In this war fare, multi-pronged approach is used to destabilize a country with help from various forms of media, igniting regional and internal disputes, utilizing internal overt and covert proxies like BLA, TTP and religious sectarian groups, etc. Pakistan is the only country that has defeated 5th Generation warfare elements from TTP Swat to Karachi based terror outfits while the others will be taken care by effective IBOs.
Pakistan is currently in the phase of strategic policy paradigm shift by getting closer to China and Russia. Its membership of SCO bloc is a clear example. In addition, Pakistan’s role is pivotal for Chinese led OBOR vision due to flagship CPEC project under OBOR and SCO member countries are largely in favor of this economic corridor. Due to the bright fore cast of this mega project, adversaries will try to undermine Pakistan on all fronts by employing 5th generation proxies. We, as a nation, must be ready and vigilant to reverse such plans.
