The inception of industrial in the 19th century revolutionized the entire world. The revolution brought forth stupefying amenities for the mankind which were unimaginable in pre-industrial era. Human life became easier and more luxurious with each passing year by dint of amazing progress in the industrial arena. The installation of electricity units, production of automobiles, creation of airplanes, drilling mechanism for hydrocarbons, invention of air-conditioners and refrigerators and numerous other electrical and mechanical equipment’s define the epochal period of industrial revolution that exponentially raised the living standard across various parts of the globe. During the span of next 8-12 decades since the advent of these life-altering machines the people started living in a more comfortable manner than the emperors and kings of pre-seventeenth century Nonetheless the planet has paid a hefty price for over-indulgence and excessive reliance on machines in the form of an uptick in its average temperature. Undoubtedly the phenomenon led “global warming” is an off Shoot of industrial revolution which if not taken into consideration will wipe off the chances of life from various parts of the earth in an irrevocable manner by the year 2100.
Historical Perspective
Earth’s history is 4.6 billion years old in which it has witnessed different temperature regimens; however till the last quarter of 20th century its temperature had never been a topic of research. Swiss geologist Louis Agassiz, being obsessed with glaciers started studying them in 1837 and he put forward the concept of Ice Age a protracted period of time when much of the earth’s surface was completely covered with ice. His-theory received an outright repudiation and he was urged conducting research in his field geology. Later on Irish Physicist John Tyndall not only confirmed the theory of Ice Age but proved the concept of Greenhouse Effect retention of heat in atmosphere by certain gases accruing surge in earth’s temperature. Svante Arrhenius, Swedish Physicist was the first who calculated the effects of carbon in atmosphere and thus global warming. His calculations depicted 4 to 5o Celsius decline in the world’s temperature if carbon presence was slashed to half similarly with doubling of carbon concentration the planet’s temperature would amp up by 5 to 6o Celsius. He also predicted 3000 years as doubling period of carbon dioxide in atmosphere besides welcoming the surge on two different pretexts. First it will head off the chances for renascence of the Ice Age and second the increased temperature would make this planet more livable as crops in nimiety could be obtained. Arrhenius is termed as “the father of climate modeling” owing to his extensive work in climatology. His work was confirmed by Guy Stuart Callendar by proving a variable relation between con- centration of carbon dioxide in atmosphere and climate. The ‘Callendar Effect’ was coined with his name describing the role of C02 in climate change. He too like Arrhenius lauded the increase in carbon concentration on the same double-edged grounds.
By mid of the previous century, it was as clear as crystal that the con-centration of carbon in atmosphere was increasing but the researchers and scientists lauded it as they worried about global cooling due to risorgimento of the Ice Age rather than global warming. Deferment of the Ice Age was a boon tied with the increasing amount of C02 in atmosphere. It was Charles David Keeling who in 1969 calculated the C02 levels in atmosphere in parts per million (ppm) in his Keeling Curve and warned of the consequences of unrestrained emission of carbon in atmosphere. Keeling’s curve was indeed a confirmation of the Callendar Effect but negative effects of carbon concentration in juxtaposition to all the previous positive ones laid the foundation frame work for debate and discussion in climate technology. Since then, the greenhouse effect was taken seriously at multiple forms along with the dire need for transforming the energy system.
Natural Equilibrium and Greenhouse Gases
The atmosphere is made up to the 62mile-hight blanket of gases divided disproportionately between major and minor constituents. Oxygen and nitrogen retain the major share of 98% share in the mix of atmospheric gases whereas the minor share of 2% is divided amongst certain greenhouse gasses. Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas having 99.4% share the remaining 0.6% is distributed among methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons. The little portion of greenhouse gases plays a cardinal role in maintaining natural equilibrium between the major and minor constituents. Without the portion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the earth would have frozen during nights thereby converting it into an uninhabitable planet’s temperature within a specific range neither too hot nor too cold and it defines the entire climate change debate. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is linearly related to increase in temperature beyond the natural band and it is feared that a 2-3o Celsius rise in the earth’s average temperature is enough for unleashing devastation.
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution almost 160 years ago, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 25% in the atmosphere besides in creasing the concentration of other greenhouse gases. The earth’s average temperature has increased by 1o Celsius upsurge is the outcome of massive emissions of CO2 from anthropogenic activities. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change defines “anthropogenic activities” as the activities of mankind, other than natural, that emit unqualified quantities of carbon dioxide and related greenhouse gases into atmosphere. Perhaps atmosphere has been serving as “natural sink” for greenhouse gases emitted from all the manmade activities that primarily comprise three different sources: industry, housing and transportation having greenhouse gases ejection share of 41%, 33% and 22% respectively. Large scale deforestation has also negative consequences as forests are the natural sinks for CO2 and their elimination certainly raises the concentration of CO2 in atmosphere. Scientists have called the climate-affecting anthropogenic activities as “experiments by mankind” which are doomed at irreversibly changing the planet’s climate.
Ecological havoc by 1o Celsius
Though the 1o Celsius raise in the earth’s average temperature seems to have no or minimal impression because of “1” being the least positive number but incontestably it has drastically damaged the ecological patterns. The negative outcomes of climate change have appeared during the last 2-3 decades thereby signaling of immediate attention and taking precautionary steps for curbing further destruction. Following are the major putative nocuous effects of climate change:
(1) Rupturing Ice-Water proportion
As the temperature soars glaciers all over the world are melting at a faster rate; even the huge rivers of ice that flow in slow motion down mountains have disappeared completely. Melting ice flowing out in the seas has not only paved the way for floods but has increased the sea levels to a noticeable level. Floods threaten the low-lying towns, cities, farms and islands whereas rising sea level risks life in coastal areas as the habitants would migrate from the coastal cities if sea levels continue to rise at the same pace in future. Interestingly two-third of the world’s biggest cities is in coastal areas. The hampered global ice-water proportion is of startling concern. Ice has natural reflection properties for the sun rays: the shiny surface of the ice bounces back 80% of the sun’s rays. As the swathes of ice have been accosting declivity, the sea water on the other hand has been rising thereby enlarging area for heat absorption. Resultantly, the water warms and ice melts at a much faster rate affecting the earth’s temperature and climate in a blighting manner.
(2) Devastating Weather Patterns
The slim increase of 1o Celsius in the earth’s average temperature has destabilized the weather all around the world. As per the prediction of scientists, both heavy rainfall and severe drought are offshoots of global warming. The pattern of untimely rains turning into floods has wreaked havoc in many parts of the world. The last two decades have manifested mega cyclones and typhoons, commonly called “hurricanes” which are eventuated by the warm surface water and are expected to increase in magnitude owing to warming of sea water with the increase in average temperature of the earth’s surface. Approximately 1836 people were killed in a single Hurricane Katrina in 2005 besides damaging the infrastructure worth billions of dollars.
On the other hand, drought and desertification have not only hit the lives of people but tamped down substantially the production of crops. Many lakes have either completely dried out or shrunk to a meager proportion as compared to that of 2-3 decades ago. The farmers vying for water supply battle with each other for getting requisite water for their seasonal crops. Similarly, desertification shifting of sand from desert areas to villages and farms has been observed in many parts of the world. The sand dunes from deserts cover the fertile fields stultifying them for production besides compelling the villagers for migration. Desertification is caused by changes in wind patterns and if it remains unchecked a huge reduction in productivity and displacement of the people take place in future.
(3) Pollutant Air Mix
The post-industrial revolution era is defined by two major features: Snowballing population and rapid urbanization. The urban cities not only provide job opportunities to the people in expanding industrial sector but they can avail such neoteric facilities which are difficult to avail or enjoy in back water towns. All the major facilities are obtained by burning fossil fuels in the form of coal, oil or gas which spew out thousands of kilograms of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere thereby vitiating the atmosphere which provides oxygen-rich air for respiration. Exhaust gases, that is, greenhouse gases trap heat in atmosphere causing global warming as well as smog and acid rain. Smog-a phenomenon caused by reaction between atmospheric oxygen and exhaust gases released from cars and factories in the presence of sunlight. Resultantly a thick cloud of nitrogen dioxide and other hazardous gases is formed which can permanently impair the human lungs. Children are highly susceptible to smog causing asthma if the polluted air mix is uninterruptedly inhaled by them. Smog snatches 1.6 million lives annually. Acid rain, rain water with pH 4 or less, is ensued by sulphuric acid prepared when reaction takes place between atmosphere and Sulphur dioxide emitted from coal-burning power plants. Destruction of forests, killing of fish, acidification of lakes and corroding building are linked with the acid rain. The acid rain is the primal issue in USA and Canada as about 70 bills anent acid rain had been presented in the US Congress during the Reagan era; no bill could be converted into law nonetheless.
Burgeoning population means more homes which are made of concrete. These concrete buildings trap heat during the daytime causing warmer evenings in cities and towns as compared to that of the surroundings and tall timbers. This phenomenon is called as “heat island effect” and is the second biggest contributor of global warming. Besides the heat island effect the urban cities are expanded at the cost of eliminating trees, fields and even forests. Moreover as cities expand they require more power which is again obtained by emission of greenhouse gases. Thusly a replacement of CO2 sinks with its sources transpires in all major cities of the world.
(4) Extinction of Species:
The temperature-sensitive species are at the cusp of extinction because of raising temperature all over the world. Though many species have naturally died out but the extinction rate has ramped up hundreds-fold in the wake of global warming. The most ostensible extinction is of rare golden toad in 1987: the species fell prey to an epidemic disease in its forest habitat supported by unusually warm temperatures. Among the few susceptible species are: Apollo butterfly, Trout and salmon fish, pacific hawksbill turtle, polar bears, curlew and Pika from rabbit family, which is considered to be the first mammal to face the wrath of global warming by its utter extinction.
The plant-species are also grievously threatened by warming of water that could contribute horridly by deep-sixing the carbon dioxide sinks. Among the most threatened are the coral reefs and sea algae. The marine plants, algae and bacteria trap CO2 in the oceans and release it slowly during their growth. Stamping out these sea-species is tantamount to exterminating the carbon sinks alike that of deforestation. Coral reefs are special ecological characters composed of skeletons of marine invertebrates called coral. They are naturally arranged in a resplendent manner and according to Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University these ecological species chip in revenue estimated between $25-30 per annum. The acidification of oceans, water pollution and sewage discharge have wreaked havoc on coral reefs and if it continues in untrammeled fashion this ecological beauty will be uprooted permanently.
Hortative IPCC Report
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, has released a comprehensive comparative analysis October this year after three years of continual research, apropos the fallouts of global warming at 1.5oC and 2oC upsurge in the earth’s average temperature. The thirty-three page report can be called “sui generis” in its kind as it gives the toughest call ever given in any such report. The lucubration glossed in the report is a certain sure climate catastrophe engulfing the globe at 2oC surge and the current carbon emissions are indicative of 3oC upsurge. The report predicted 2030 as the year when 1.5oC uptick in average temperature would be achieved from where no further increase should take place so that the earth’s habitability could be retained. In order to put a grinding halt on surge above the 1.5oC mark, the world will have to set off major changes worth billions of dollars right now without any further delay. The report targets energy, land use (housing) and transportation as three big arenas requiring sea changes in their existing modes. Though the changes needed are dearly exorbitant in nature as around 2.5% of global GDP is cumulatively required to be injected in these sectors continually for next two decades. Some comparative results of the study show:
i. The span and intensity of canicular period will rise significantly: day period will manifest 3oC and 4oC surge in temperature at 1.5oC and 2oC global warming respectively.
ii. Sea level rise at 1.5 o C global warming will be 0.1 m lesser than that of rise at 2oC.
iii. Deracination of species is precipitated at 2oC. In case of insects it triples from 6% to 18% whereas for plants and vertebrates it doubles from 8% and 4% to 16% and 8% respectively.
iv. Aquaculture will face utter extinction at 2oC. For instance coral reefs will be pared down to one-fourth proportion only at 1.5oC and there exists almost no probability of their survival at 2oC.
v. Malaria and dengue fever increase substantially if the global warming climbs from 1.5oC to 2oC.
vi. Global aggregated economic growth will be abysmally lower at 2oC than that of 1.5oC global warming estimates.
vii. Heat Island effect will be magnified many-fold at 2oC.
viii. Capping the global warming at 1.5oC mark will help in reducing the number of people facing climate-inducing calamities and thereby preventing enormous mass displacements due to mega floods.
Managing the Carbon Emissions
The IPCC report emphatically calls for reducing the carbon emissions with the help of three different terms:
(1) Net Zero CO2 Emissions: When CO2 emitted and removed by anthropogenic processes become equal.
(2) Total Carbon Budget: Cumulative net CO2 emissions from anthropogenic activities since pre-industrial time to that period when no further CO2 is emitted so that global warming could be limited at a certain level.
(3) Remaining Carbon Budget: Cumulative net anthropogenic CO2 emissions from any starting date till the period when no further CO2 is emitted so that global warming could be limited at a certain level.
All the calculations for carbon budget have been done at global warming level of 1.5oC from where no further margin exists for carbon emissions. Means at 1.5oC global warming net zero CO2 emissions must take place in order to obviate the appalling consequences of climate change. The unchecked CO2 emissions are truncating the remaining carbon budget with a breakneck speed.
Staying within the available carbon budget along with minimal increase in CO2 emissions per year are key to deferment of climate catastrophe. The controlled as well as checked emissions of carbon dioxide will obviously increase the number of years to reach net zero carbon emissions. As the number of years increases the respective governments will have more time for taking necessary actions pertaining to climate change, for instance cleaner energy and adaptation of life style that do not contribute to global warming.
Carbon Footprint and Major Players
Global warming cannot be controlled without curbing the per capita carbon emissions. As per the 2009 Copenhagen conference the global per capita emissions are required to be cut by about 70 percent over the next four decades so that estimated 9 degrees Fahrenheit rise at the end of the century could be plummeted to 4 degrees. The USA is the major player in carbon industry having second highest per capita emissions of approximately 20 metric tons spearheaded by Luxembourg only. As far as the quantity or percentage share is concerned China tops the list with 23% share in the global carbon emissions. Coupled with the USA and China India is pitching in 5% global carbon emissions. In terms of per capita carbon emissions both India and China lag far behind from the global average; nonetheless per capita emissions of India and China are scaling up year by year. The entire carbon debate primarily hovers around drastic cuts from these three states that could mount intolerable pressure over the other states for following suit.
When compared with the USA, China and India have a common double-edged viewpoint. First, their per capita rate is too low in contrast with that of the USA and most of the European states and, second both the states are poor nations and are still in developing phase so they should not be denied the opportunities availed by the West and Europe in becoming developed nations decades ago. Globally any climate-related regime could not last long without their participation besides tangible actions from these three nations for scaling down the carbon emissions on larger scale.
Coping the Climate Catastrophe
The IPCC report depicts the current period as a climacteric phase where it requires wholesale changes in energy, housing and transportation sectors so that the menace of global warming turning into climate catastrophe could be staved off. By the year 2030 the earth’s average temperature would get to 1.5oC mark from where no margin exists further for excessive greenhouse gases emissions. Whereas the global net CO2 emissions must reach ZERO by 2050 which is a Herculean task requiring grit from different states besides inexorable annual investment worth billions of dollars. The IPCC report calls for slashing the carbon emissions by 45% from 2010 level till the year 2030 whereas 85% of energy is required to be generated from renewable sources by 2050 in order to achieve global net zero CO2 emissions by that year. Keeping in view the existing sources of power generation, three decades seem to be a shorter period for shifting more than four-fifth of energy production to renewable sources for following primordial reasons:
o The fossil fuels that include coal, oil and gas, provide more than 70% share in the global energy gird and the power infrastructure of different states is aligned with them. For instance, peak load in summer is supplied from coal fired plants in many states owing to their peculiar characteristics. Now replacing them with renewable sources means replacing the entire electricity generation infrastructure which globally requires trillions of dollars besides expertise, skills and trained human resource in particular renewable technology.
o The renewable sources are of different kinds for instance, water, wind, solar, tidal and geothermal sources can be used for production of electricity. Their surfeit and inexhaustible nature give them upper hand over the exhausting fossil fuels but poor efficiency and high installation cost occludes their progress. Hydro power plants require thousands of squares miles of territory as well as bulk amount of water besides they have the highest capital investment amongst all sources of electricity generation. Wind stations are specific to coastal areas with uninterrupted supply of wind. Solar farms work on provision of sun rays and in night time they do not produce energy but the major issue with them is of poor efficiency and high installation cost. The tidal and geothermal modes also confront some major issues. Moreover still the renewable sources are in development phase and they require decades for replacing the fossil fuels which have an extensive network all over the globe.
Though sea changes are required in energy sector but are not limited to it only. Cleaner transportation and Eco-homes are also need of the hour to curtail the greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere. For instance, ordinary buses should be supplanted with “Green buses” which run on hydrogen and do not emit any greenhouse gas. Similarly “Hybrid cars” are called “cars of the future” as they are partly or completely powered by electricity that the car generates. They also emit very less greenhouse gases. On the other hand homes need modifications in line with maximum utility of renewable resources. The changes in transportation and housing sector seems a pipe dream in developing states at this period in time as switching to these technologies not only require trillions of worth investment but dissemination of advanced scientific methodology and procedures along with troubleshooting techniques. In a nut shell complete transmogrification of entire society will take place which seems well-nigh impossible, at least in the developing world by the year 2050 when net global CO2 emissions are required to reach ZERO.
Conclusion-No Option Except Saving the Earth
The unfettered use of fossil fuels coupled with the sclerotic stance of developed states, for instance the USA, has pushed the earth towards the brink where climate genocide seems imminent. The earth suffers irremediable loss every year in the form of irreversible changes in its climate patterns that unleash colossal calamities in different manifestations. Extreme weather, inundating floods, drought, hurricanes, etc., are outcomes of global warming and it’s transpicuous that the habitants of this planet are responsible for devastating weather patterns. The developed nations have displayed sheer dereliction in creation of efficient and effective climate-control regimes: Kyoto Protocol got its birth after 18 years of discussion from 1987 to 2005 whereas the Copenhagen Conference of 2009 could not be concluded in harmonious manner among the participating states. President’s Trump’s retreat of the US from the Paris Climate Agreement speaks volumes of the US inanition with this grave issue besides intransigence and aggression on an issue which could not be handled proficiently without its active participation. Stern warnings during the last decade have been given after studying the horrifying effects of global warming, at length, by different international climate study organizations and the recent IPCC report is an apogee of all such reports admonishing in shrill tone besides giving timeframe for necessary action required. Unfortunately, these studies are yet to attract the attention of governments and policy makers. The estimated period of 12 years from now is the final call from where no further margin exists. The net zero CO2 emissions period of 2050 is not far away from now when unaccounted carbon emissions would completely cripple the earth’s infrastructure thereby heading towards the doomsday. Earth the is only one out of the eight planets where human habitation is possible, all other planets being uninhabitable. Though scientists have been continually studying prospects of life on other planets but are yet to discover any. And if they are successful in ferreting out life on any other planet, in future, the entire human displacement to that planet could not be possible on the eve of climate mayhem on this planet. It is better to save the earth right now by investing and aligning with carbon-free sources for energy and industry. Investment, though gargantuan sums, is easier rather than shifting to another planet.
