As elaborated in previous writings, the foreign policy subject is tough, enormously challenging and sometimes risky business when it comes to addressing the interstate relations and play around in the very thin area of maneuvering. In that context, table diplomacy is the effective art for avoiding wars and conflicts and this is accomplished by negotiation, or bargaining. Usually, each group in a negotiation will ask for more than they expect to get. They then compromise, or give up some of what they want in order to come to an agreement. The reason why diplomacy in typical foreign policy arena is a tough business because world powers usually have the luxury to enjoy playing in the broader area of maneuvering because they have many more tools and means to enforce their terms as compared to moderate and weak nations. It is absolutely challenging to get more even in negotiations in the presence of a vocal and aggressive power since power tools paly greater role in determining the fate of negotiations.
Pakistan, in spite of having a powerful military structure and being added in nuclear club decades ago, still faces enormous challenges when it comes to playing around within the foreign policy domain. The challenges are not only at regional and internal level but also heavily global in nature.
Balancing Iran-Saudi Rivalry
Pakistan’s strategic location and its predominant religious affinity have made it a natural ally of the neighboring Gulf States. Amongst these Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC), Saudi Arabia and UAE traditionally have the closest of relations with Pakistan in all spheres of the interests. In terms of strategic ties, Pakistan acts as a strategic balancer in Iranian context for which the Gulf States look towards Pakistan. Specifically, when it comes to military relations, Pakistan maintains close military ties with all the Gulf States especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Bahrain. Pakistan provides extensive support, arms and training for the Military establishments of these countries. The defence cooperation between Bahrain and Pakistan is also very strong; Pakistan has been collaborating since long in their defense sectors, particularly air and naval forces along with procurement of defense related equipment. UAE has benefited from Pakistan’s military process since 1968, much before it formally was transformed to an independent state. Its air force had Pakistani air force officers as Chiefs of air staff on many occasions. Over past few decades, Pakistan has also improved its relations with the state of Qatar, they signed a defence pact in May 2010 where a number of agreements were signed for purchase of arms and ammunitions, military training and many other defence related MOU’s. Moreover, a deal was signed by the two countries’ governments in December 2015 in which Qatar agreed to supply Pakistan with $16 billion of LNG over a lengthy period.
Traditionally and historically for the Gulf States, containment of the Iranian influence in neighboring countries is an area of greater interest and it compels them to develop closer relations with Pakistan. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have been strained at times due to sectarian tensions but nevertheless, economic and trade relations continued to expand in both absolute and relative terms, leading to the signing of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries in 1999. It is important for Iran to give up hard core extremism agenda that some believe she is trying to spread in the region, rather it must be flexible for achieving more harmony in the region for economic development. It will be in the greater interest of Iran establishing good relations with its neighbors. Solid and visible economic interests must play a role convincing Iranian leaders to rethink their ideology, this can be a win-win situation for the entire region. Pakistan, in recent years, had to face quite a few challenges that become the real-time test for our diplomacy experts. These challenges include Saudi led Yemen war, Saudi led Military alliance against terrorism and the current Qatar diplomatic crisis. In each of these crisis, Iran has some kind of role one way or another. Saudi Arabia and UAE expect Pakistan to be a party in the Yemen conflict but that will certainly create disturbance inside Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Parliament unanimously passed a resolution on April 10, 2015 declaring that the country would remain “neutral” in the Yemen conflict, signifying a sharp break between these long-time partners. Pakistan’s decision not to join the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen signaled initially a serious coolness in relations between Islamabad and Arab States. The only dignified way moving forward was to abide by the parliamentary resolution that restricted policy makers from becoming party during ongoing problem amongst Arab-Iran rivalry rather should play a mediatory role to resolve the conflict. Hence Pakistan’s role as a strategic balancer in Saudi-Iranian context is an important factor that prohibits the two rivals from going for an open war like situation. This is a persisting delicate challenge for our policy makers that has to be dealt with in accordance with parliamentary resolutions.
Another sensitive area to handle is the Saudi-led coalition where former Pakistan army chief has been given a lead role. Due to the dominance of the states having majority Sunni Muslim populations, this is being seen as “a sectarian coalition” by some non-participant countries like Iraq, Iran and Syria. Pakistan’s position is clear, the former Army General is serving the alliance in his personal capacity. This is a critical point here again that this alliance must not be used against any other Muslim country rather it should be focused on anti-ISIS/ISIL activities and other potential terrorist threats.
The Qatar diplomatic crisis is another example of real time test for our diplomatic establishment on how to maintain relations with Qatar while keeping balance with Saudi Arabia and UAE. Again, the parliamentary resolutions helped in this regard that prohibits government to be a party in conflicts amongst Muslim countries. Guidelines from parliament are always considered as a solid and national stance which cannot be overruled no matter what kind of international pressure is exerted.
Pakistan-India relations
For every sitting government in Islamabad, relations with India is a constant and persistent challenge. India’s noncooperation for resolution of Kashmir and its hegemonic mindset about further westward expansion thus using Afghanistan as base camp forming infrastructure for anti-Pakistan activities, have made it almost impossible for any peaceful relations between these two countries. The episode of Kulbhoshan Jadav and his terror network has elaborated clearly how much India is interested in destabilizing Pakistan and that no serious ness was shown for dialogue, specially under the Modi regime.
India’s ambitions to bypass Pakistan by reaching out to Iran and Afghanistan through Chabahar is another domain where diplomacy is ultimately failing since India is not ready to accept CPEC which is passing through Gilgit Baltistan area which India considers as disputed territory. Even if Indians somehow realize the positive impact of CPEC for the Indian economy, the aggressive class made up of hawkish elements in Indian establishment will never allow it to happen.
Moreover, due to the ongoing war in Afghanistan and presence of anti-Pakistan government in Kabul that is more inclined towards India many officials of current Afghan government have personal relations with New Delhi, especially with Indian intelligence agencies Indians have set up consulates in major cities in Afghanistan along with intelligence network near Pakistani border. India has got major economic and defence related projects from the current Afghan government and is involved in rebuilding and restructuring the entire network of highways throughout the country. Government of Afghanistan is fully supporting Indians to set up their foothold in the Country so that Pakistan would never be able to get strategic access again in Afghanistan.
The brutalities in Kashmir and anti-Pakistan activities and polices of the Modi regime demand that Pakistan adopt a gun boat policy as far as diplomacy with India is concerned. The doors for negotiations should always be open but the tone of aggressive diplomacy should be dearly visible from Islamabad. The main economic point India sells to the Middle East is the cheap labor and cheap products. Indians assure ME leadership about their total submission and ready to work even at very economical or cheap labor prices along with a non-arguing behavior. Also, they play around the rivalries between two countries to fulfill their objective, the Israel-Arab conflict is an example in this case. This policy and approach may get Indians some economical advantage, but this is not a strategic advantage by all means. There are certain gaps that Pakistan must fill as a counter diplomatic strategy, and if Pakistan doesn’t do aggressive diplomacy, obviously the Indians will get an edge here.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations
Pakistan and Afghanistan are next door neighbors with predominant Muslim population along with joint historic cultural linkages; how ever, the relations between these two predominant Islamic countries have never been pleasant since day one when the British sub-continent was dived into two independent states, India and Pakistan. Analyzing demographically, the southern and eastern Afghanistan is predominately Pashto-speaking, like the adjacent Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and northern Balochistan regions in Pakistan. This entire area is inhabited by the indigenous Pashtuns who belong to different Pashtun tribes. Relations between the two countries have been subject to various complexities over the decades by issues related to the Durand Line, the 1978 soviet invasion, the present war that resulted after 9/11, Afghan refugees, Taliban insurgency and border skirmishes including the growing relations between India and Afghanistan. However, the two countries are working together to find solutions to these problems. This includes possible intelligence sharing as well as further enhancing the two-way trade and abolishment of visas for diplomats from the two nations.
The Durand line issue is a longlasting issue since the creation of Pakistan which no Afghan regime was ever willing to resolve it, instead all kinds of propaganda tactics were used in the past like Pashtun unity and territory claims inside Pakistan. Shortly after Pakistan gained independence in 1947, Afghanistan crafted a two fold strategy to destabilize the frontier regions of Pakistan, in an attempt to take advantage of Pakistan’s post-independence instability. It strongly aligned itself with Pakistan’s rival, India and also the USSR, which later invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan began deteriorating in the 1970s after Pakistan supported rebels such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ahmad Shah Massoud, Haqqanis and others against the governments of Afghanistan. In April 1978, Afghan President Daoud Khan was assassinated in Kabul during the Saur Revolution. This was followed by the execution of deposed Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in April 1979 and the assassination of Afghan President Nur Muhammad Taraki in September 1979. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, the United States joined Pakistan to counter Soviet influence with help from Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency ISI and advanced its own interests in the region. In turn, Afghan, Indian and Soviet intelligence agencies played their role by supporting al Zulfikar-a Pakistani leftist group responsible for the March 1981 hijacking of a PIA plane.
During the 1980s, the Durand Line was heavily used by Afghan refugees fleeing the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, including a large number of Mujahideen insurgent groups who crossed back and forth. The mujahideen included not only locals but also Arabs and others from over 40 different Islamic nations. Many of these foreign fighters married local women and decided to stay in Pakistan, among them were radical Muslims from Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood as well as prisoners from Arab countries.
After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988 and then col lapse of USSR, the country was engaged in internal civil war for a few years and witnessed power struggle between various Mujahideen groups. The Pakistan embassy in Kabul also come under attack and was burnt, the ambassador was badly injured as a result of Afghan groups attacking the embassy during that lawlessness period. Around September 1994, the Taliban movement captured the Afghan city of Kandahar and began its long conquest with Pakistan’s political support. The Taliban claimed that they wanted to clean Afghanistan from the warlords and criminals. In late 1996, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan emerged and established close relations with neighboring Pakistan. However, the relations began to decline when the Taliban refused to endorse the Durand Line despite pressure from Islamabad, arguing that there shall be no borders among Muslims. When the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was toppled, and the new Afghan government was formed, President Hamid Karzai began repeating the previous Taliban statement.
The only way forward is to establish an effective border management system like “an organized fencing” necessary to control and regulate law and order situation in Pakistan since it was established that terrorists also enter Pakistan from free Afghan border crossings. Lot of steps have been taken by Pakistan like building gates on border to regulate visa entries and building wall/fence across the western border which is under way. This is very important and will create an image and sense of realization amongst Afghans that Pakistan is as tough to enter without proper visa as any other country in the world. With strong and organized fencing, the Durand line issue will hopefully come to an end in practical terms. Establishing good relations with Afghan nation is always a positive gesture and all necessary steps need to be taken to fulfill that goal. I have written a detailed report in the past on how to manage Afghanistan from diplomatic, economic and tactical terms.
Pakistan & SAARC overview
SAARC is currently under Indian influence with Bangladesh and Afghanistan heavily backing up the Modi regime. Pakistan has got many levers to maneuver the diplomatic chess board as far as SAARC is concerned. The idea by Pakistan to add China in SAARC is a positive development since Pakistan will have significant diplomatic strength and countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal and Maldives will also feel depressurized from Indian hegemony. Moreover, due to the China’s strong economic ties with Bangladesh and Afghanistan, India will not be able to mold these two countries against Pakistan. So, the future of SAARC with inclusion of China will boost the strategic importance of this regional bloc. SAARC can become an important contributor to the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project if Indian the hegemony dream can be kept aside or is limited and if somehow the Indians understand the economic worth of CPEC and join this corridor.
Maneuvering between NATO and SCO bloc
Pakistan’s foreign policy has always been influenced by western oriented thinking with strong interaction with NATO. Many historical examples can be given like Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. But and consequent events after 9/11 compelled Pakistan to rethink its global engagement as far as dealing with big powers is concerned. The opportunity came through the Gwadar port and CPEC that opened the doors for another power axis that is China and Russia. Moreover, Pakistan became a full SCO member recently giving a clear indication to the western bloc that Islamabad is responding to strategic paradigm shift due to con sequence of war on terror and unilateral expansionism. This prestigious SCO club was formed by China, Russia and CA states. The objective was to counter NATO influence and economic cooperation. Later on, it was extended to Pakistan and India in 2017 while Iran and Afghanistan have the status of observers. This club has been seen as the potential center for regional geo politics as well as economic wellbeing under OBOR. Pakistan has the key status due to flag ship its CPEC project. This bloc has huge potential to extend CPEC scope to CA states, Caucasus and deep into Russia. If Iran is added, it could involve the Caspian potential. The challenge is to benefit from such a power bloc fir our economic wellbeing and strategic gains. The challenge here is how to maintain fair relations with NATO countries specially united states.
The successful caliber in foreign policy terms is to keep relations with both blocs but having predominant tilt towards the region. NATO and western countries have less economic stake in Pakistan rather than expansionism. On the other hand, China is there with full economic agenda. The best practice will be to use pros and cons of both rival blocs and use them in interests of Pakistan. Also keep in mind that fair practices and stand on principles will be the ultimate strength in the diplomacy world.
Concluding Remarks
As already said in previous articles on the same subject that strong foreign policy has some basic powerful ingredients that dictate and determine the strength of a nation in world political arena. On the top of the list is that what is the narrative of that particular country as a whole for example, United States and European nations developed their systems following the ideology of capitalism while the communist ideology was followed by Russians and Chinese. In the Muslim world, Turkey is the prime example of an impressive blend of eastern and western cultures. Finally let’s come on to Pakistan. The overall narrative of Pakistan should be strong enough so that the world sees Pakistan as a powerful modern Islamic welfare state along with impressive infrastructure and economic development model. This narrative can’t be developed without removing hurdles and punishing the powerful elites who coupled with the current system is not allowing benefits to reach the common people of Pakistan. Moreover, an equal opportunity based social justice must be developed since no country can raise its stature without it amongst the comity of nations.
The second important sector is the economic model. Each world power has learnt over the period of time what sort of economic model would they follow in order to build giant economies. The model can be changed also based upon needs and requirements but initially a strong model is imperative to be developed. For Pakistan, it is essential to develop a strong eco ‘1omic model. I don’t think anyone in the past have paid much attention to this aspect. Mostly Pakistan’s economy was managed and maneuvered by international events such as CENTO treaty in the 50’s and the 60’s to restrict red revolution, USSR intervention in Afghanistan during 70’s & 80s and tragic incidence of 9/11 in 2001. Each of those events brought huge flux of dollars in Pakistan due to which the country was able to sustain its economy on artificial basis. Very little attention was given to industrialization and manufacturing. Pakistan had covered many milestones like becoming a nuclear power, got independence and self-reliance in development of military hardware, etc., yet many ingredients as mentioned above still needs to be fulfilled for becoming an effective economy on word’s landscape. Pakistani policy makers must focus on multipronged approach in order to boost economy and currency. Since Pakistan is mainly an agricultural country, the importance of land reforms cannot be ignored. A food and water self-sufficient Pakistan will be speedily able to focus on other ingredients for exploring other milestones. With improvement in agriculture system and availability of water resources, Pakistan’s agriculture sector will be the back bone of the economy and will contribute heavily towards achieving national and diplomatic objectives. Pakistan is good in military hardware, so focus must be for developing the military hardware-based economy. I don’t need to mention much here since many defence related organization are working to boost this domain. Other possible economy boosting model would be developing the tourism sector, many countries in the world depend solely on tourism for sustaining their economies. On the top of that Pakistan is building CPEC project with China, so getting passage tax to and from will be a big additional element upon which economic model can be built. If Gwadar Port gets fully functional, many ports around the world will be affected like the port of Singapore. Strong Economic model is the fundamental pre-requisite for laying out an effective foreign policy. Pakistan has many levers to play around for an effective economic model like military hardware development, Tourism, CPEC passage Tax and infrastructure, agriculture exports, sports-based sector and development of skilled man power. These levers can be well managed and certainly will give positive results if educated and honest leadership emerges at all levels amongst our society. Pakistan can also share experiences and lessons learnt on war against terrorism and it can be a good image building tool for Pakistan. The fundamental point here is Pakistan cannot build a successful economic model without development in human sector like education and health. Basic health and education is the key for building a healthy society that eventually will help building a strong economy. An educated and healthy society will effectively contribute towards building all spheres of economic domains that can be raised up for economic model development Another area that may be developed is the regional connectivity. CPEC is just one example. Another example is Turkey-Iran-Pakistan economic corridor (TIPEC). There is already a highway exits between Pakistan Iran and Turkey by the name of RCD Highway. If this RCD highway somehow could be upgraded, then another corridor could be made available that will connect Caucasus countries from Caspian Sea to CPEC highways. This will be an additional revenue generation project for Pakistan having unique diplomatic and financial benefits. This TIPEC corridor will additionally connect most of the SCO member countries with further linkage to CPEC and Grader port to all the way up to Western China.
The bottom line is that Pakistan must adopt principles mentioned above along with evolving honest and courageous leadership, aggressive diplomatic approach and giving up apologetic diplomacy stance and finally demonstration of military power being a strong nuclear nation whenever time and opportunity arrives, and geopolitical situation requires.•
