According to the Zodiac sign July 25 is a day of strong intellectual energies and a powerful time to be born in. Given the feudal tendency to coerce/ intimidate voters in the rural areas, even if the Pakistani voter votes with his head and not depends upon his heart alone or a combination thereof, even then the country will not likely have a new dawn in about 150 hours plus. Given the importance of charisma in a country with inherent feudalism becoming stronger, can the common citizen rationalize the precious casting of vote for someone who will deliver on their promises rather than by those promising the moon? The tragedy is that some of those who will be voted in will come into the market to “sell their services as a Parliamentarian” to the highest bidder, so what does the exercise of electoral votes matter to those who have the monetary ability to make the elected change sides? This only confirms why accountability preceding an electoral exercise is crucial for a democratic process.
These are not normal circumstances, a sense of uncertainty prevails, exacerbated recently by wanton destruction wreaked by terrorist violence in Peshawar, Mastung and Bannu, killing many, this has added to the overall apprehension compounded into confusion. Predicting the outcome of any elections, especially in Pakistan is not only a tricky job but an awkward one.
PML-N and the PPP have complained about not getting a level playing field and pre-poll manipulation, the PML (N) going to the extent of naming names in the Establishment. Why don’t they make a formal complaint if they are that sure? And if not proven they should face the legal consequences of false accusations and perjury. Protesting about rigging the electoral process is an old ploy for keeping a door open for protest in case election results are not “favourable“. With former PM Nawaz Sharif, daughter Maryam and her husband Capt Safdar confined in jail, playing the “innocent victim” act to the hilt forms part of using every trick at their disposal. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) took prompt notice about Bilawal being obstructed from campaigning and instructed the Caretaker Punjab government to ascertain the correct facts.
The PML (N) is in trouble for the past year and not only because of Nawaz Sharif‘s disqualification and subsequent conviction but for a number of reasons. For starters the party has been hit by a wave of defections with legislators and potential electoral candidates jumping ship to join other political parties, particularly PTI. Southern Punjab has gone over to PTI almost lock, stock and barrel. Always considered to be a tight-knit group many internal ruptures have eroded PML (N) internally with divisive intra-party quarrels becoming more and more public i.e. a man of some stature like Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, a party faithful for more than three decades was forced to openly speak out about his falling out with Nawaz Sharif over the confrontation path being followed with the superior judiciary and the Army. It is well known that Nawaz Sharif runs his party like his personal fiefdom, add Maryam Nawaz’s arrogance and obstinacy and you have leaders across the board being turned off.
Some of our well known polls are still predicting an outright PML (N) victory contrary to the facts, conventional wisdom about ground realities suggests that almost everything points to a significant PML (N) setback on July 25. Those electoral candidates who bid PML (N) adieu and joined other parties possess independent bases of support that allows them to win elections, party affiliation being secondary. These people garner considerable support of voters based on Biradari, kinship, tribal and other social ties so when defecting to another political party, a candidate takes their voters with them. However one cannot just write off the PML (N) in their Punjab stronghold, their hardcore diehard supporters will still vote for them come what may.
PTI comes across to the undecided voter as a credible alternative to PML (N) in main battleground Punjab. Under their 100-day development and reform agenda Imran has vowed making education, employment and other basic rights accessible to the common man, a Pakistan where all leaders would be held accountable. On July 9 he also unveiled his party’s much-awaited “Road to Naya Pakistan” reiterating his promise to turn Pakistan into a welfare state if voted into power. The detail in the manifesto portrays PTI as a party that stands for an equitable and just society, like an Islamic welfare state. The growing level of unemployment is of paramount importance, particularly among the youth who can be led astray by terrorist preaching and the lure of easy money. The groundswell points to the voter giving him a chance to deliver on his promises.
Zardari has ensured PPP being reduced into a sub-provincial party restricted to rural Sindh because of its own failings, this despite a tremendous sustained effort by Bilawal to turn the party around. While voters in interior Sindh are extremely unhappy that PPP has not taken any worthwhile steps to alleviate their sufferings, most voters will still vote PPP because Bilawal, rather than Zardari, has taken over the mantle of the Bhutto-Benazir aura.
A crude poll suggests that the NA seats in “Battleground Punjab” will be divided District-wise as (1) Rawalpindi (Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum) total 13 seats (PTI 6, PML (N) 4, PPP 1, Independent 2) (2) Sargodha (Mianwali, Khushab, Bhakkar) 11 seats (PTI 5, PML (N) 2, PPP 1, Independent 3) (3) Faisalabad Toba Tek Singh, Jhang, Chiniot) 18 seats (PTI 6, PML (N) 11, PPP 1) (4) Gujranwala (Gujrat, Mandi Bahauddin, Narowal, Sialkot, Hafizabad) 20 seats (PTI 6, PML (N) 8, PPP 1, Independent 5) (5) Lahore (Kasur, Sheikhupura) 24 seats (PTI 12, PML (N) 12 (6) Sahiwal (Okara, Pakpatan) 10 seats (PTI 3, PML (N) 5, Independent 2 (7) Multan (Lodhran, Vehari, Khanewal) 16 seats (PTI 11, PML (N) 2, PPP 1, Independent 2 (8) Bahawalpur (Bahawalnagar, R.Y. Khan) 15 seats (PTI 8, PML (N) 5, PPP 1, Independent 1 (9) DG Khan (Layyah, Muzafargarh, Rajanpur) 15 seats (PTI 10, PML (N) 2, Independent 3. This totals PTI 67, PML (N) 51, PPP 6 and Independent 18. The MMA will come at 3 seats.
For KPK, prediction is that out of a total of 39 NA seats, PTI is expected to win around 23 seats with PML (N) 4 seats, MMA 4, PPP 3, ANP 2 and Independent 3. Tough MMA competition is expected in areas like Dir. For Sindh’s 61 NA seats PTI should get 4, PML (N) 2, PPP 26, GDA 7, PSP 10, MQM 8, MMA 4 while Balochistan’s 14 NA seats will go to PTI, MMA 3, PKMAP 4, BAP 2, PML (N) 1, NP 1, BNP 1 and Independents 1.
Overall PTI stands to get about 90-95 seats while PML (N) gets about 50-60 seats. PPP will be in third place with about 35-36 seats while there will be between 20-25 independents. Asif Zardari will be in the market for them, such is our democratic destiny. Politicians are a highly purchasable commodity, calculations can go slightly wrong here because some of the Upper Sindh GDA candidates are most purchasable and their susceptibility to Asif Zardari’s war chest. When people talk about a hung Parliament they are not entirely wrong. Add PPP’s 36 seats to PML (N)’s 60 and both the reserved seats elected indirectly and the independents come into play. Balochistan Assembly showed us the reach of Asif Zardari’s illegally acquired money made legal by Musharraf’s NRO. Does anyone believe for one moment that “available” politicians will not be “acquired” to deny PTI forming a govt? The critical factor will be the MMA’s 14-15 seats. We all know Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s penchant for greed, will JI’s Siraj ul Haq fall prey to how Zardari manipulates the JUI (F) chief? With their riches, Nawaz Sharif and Zardari have a vested interest in forming a grand coalition to keep Imran Khan out in the cold. Having won the battle Imran Khan could well lose the war simply because we will allow illegal wealth looted from our own country to purchase our democracy.
This makes it imperative for PTI to win at least 110 seats. With the reserved seats proportionately allotted with enough independents duly supported by PSP and whoever is not bought out from the highly saleable GDA, Imran Khan should have a sufficient number of NA seats to form a coalition govt. To ensure fair play the Caretaker period should extend to 90 days after the elections to carry out full accountability of all those elected (read my article of June 15, 2018 “Justice Delayed, Justice Denied”). Then maybe this country will eventually get to see real change.
