Former Interior Minister Ch. Nisar Ali khan mentioned many times about an ongoing conspiracy against Pakistan since past few years from regional and distant enemies. Although he didn’t elaborate much regarding the nature of that conspiracy but the level of the seriousness and confidentiality was such that only a few people had knowledge of such adversary’s plans. Of course, high level civil and military leadership would have known about it and certainly as Interior Minister, Ch. Nisar Ali Khan is one of the person who knows about it.
The objective of this article is just to analyze what is new in the ongoing regional paradigm that is still not clear or visible and what might be the hidden dangers that former Interior Minister is pointing at as a serious threat. Are we missing something or what are the emerging factors that compelled NATO forces to act against TTP leader Mullah Fazal Ullah and kill him with a drone strike. A more complicated picture emerges when recently the newly nominated commander of US forces in Afghanistan has said that Pakistan, Russia, and Iran were continuing to support Taliban fighters as reported in Times of Islamabad online newspaper. The US General however acknowledged that Pakistan has made many sacrifices and its security forces have fought bravely, but the US demand to act against Afghan Taliban is still a question mark since Pakistani officials have repeatedly rejected the allegations and claim that the terror and militant groups have no organized presence in Pakistan.
Keeping history in view, we must pay attention to another scenario in Afghanistan’s situation that this is the same country where Americans defeated Russians in 1988 with help from Pakistan. The US took all credit for that victory and thus became the sole superpower and the world shifted from bi-polar to uni-polar. The US wanted to undermine the Soviet invasion and used all leverages to term it a failed occupation. The US administration at that time was solely focusing on how to take revenge for Vietnam war where China and Russia supported anti-American rebels (Viet-Kong), the Americans had to pull out leaving thousands of dead and uncountable injured. Then Soviet intervention in Afghanistan provided America a chance to avenge the Vietnam defeat. Now once again, US and NATO alliance find themselves surrounded in Afghanistan where Russians, Iranians have the full opportunity to leverage from ground situation and it might be possible they have established ties with the Afghan Taliban. The blame on Pakistan is utterly false that Pakistan is supporting the Afghan Taliban. In fact, more than 40% of Afghanistan is under hands of the Afghan Taliban, why would they need sanctuaries in Pakistan.
With huge chaos and humanitarian mess created during Iraq and Syrian wars recently, it is hereby noticed that ISIS is getting stronger in Afghanistan. The way both wars in middle east were handled, the said chaos and anarchy was foreseeable. There are no compelling reasons why allied forces in Iraq left a huge vacuum thus paving the ground for emergence of terror groups like ISIS. There are few school of thoughts addressing this scenario – one is of course blaming the US and allied forces for their mismanagement and incapability to stop the emergence of ISIS like terror groups, however, there is another school of thought that the crisis was intentionally created in order to benefit from the oil resources of Iraq and pave the ground for creation of Greater Israel. The same applies to the Syrian war where there was no need for western involvement since the Bashar Government was an internal Syrian issue. The Obama administration’s unnecessary and ambitious campaign provided legitimacy to the Russians and other regional powers like Iran to intervene in the Syrian conflict thereby creating a huge humanitarian and mass migration crisis. At the end, the Syrian war became a war of hegemony where Russia and Iran partially succeeded.
It has been said frequently from intelligence and diplomatic resources that some dominant forces are intentionally bringing ISIS into Afghanistan so that Russian, Iranian and Afghan Taliban influence could be countered. This claim could be evident from recent ISIS attacks in neighboring countries, particularly against Shia and Hazara community. The role of Indian RAW cannot be ruled out in financing ISIS efforts in the region as it is in the sole interest of India to promote ISIS in the region so that greater objectives under strategic blocs could be fulfilled. The region is experiencing worst type of intelligentsia warfare and the center stage is Afghanistan.
ISIS is mainly active in the eastern side of Afghanistan near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Basically, same old TTP terrorists have shown allegiance to Islamic State and became part of Daesh. We already know that TTP terror, group basically RAW NDS sponsored fanatics are based in eastern Afghanistan under their umbrella. It cannot be coincidence that ISIS emerged by itself with remote sponsorship from Mosul or Raqqah. In fact, various reports suggest an active RAW hand in converting TTP groups into ISIS with help from some western notorious agencies. So the creation of ISIS in Afghanistan especially on its eastern side with Pakistan border is the part of a greater agenda. The nexus here is extremely dangerous, crude and fatal with involvement of RAW, NDS, MOSAD, NATO based and some other regional agencies.
Pakistan must watch the above-mentioned situation with utmost care and on a red alert level. The border with India is very heavily guarded and secured along with a well-established deterrence, but the border with Afghanistan is not defined and people travel back and forth without any documentation. Due to this long porous border with Afghanistan and absence of strict visa policy, Pakistan has suffered a lot during this war on terror since most RAW-NDS backed TTP attackers were coming from Afghanistan. It is a known fact that India is supporting TTP terror network with help from Afghan NDS agency. The former US defense secretary Chuck Hagel openly mentioned Indian role in destabilizing Pakistan while using Afghan soil. Also during recent Indian visit, the current defense secretary James Mattis intended to convey to Indians, especially RAW about moderating their policy for helping TTP terrorists which of course disturbed Indian civil and military establishment.
Indian RAW has invested a lot of financial, human and logistic resources in order to destabilize Pakistan using Afghan soil and Afghan resources thus it is not easy for them to withdraw or moderate their network of activities. This is a crude challenge and needs to be handled in a straight surgical way. Another live example is the capture of serving Indian naval officer Commander Kulbhushan Yadav who openly admitted that he was assigned to destabilize Pakistan, specially the CPEC and that he used Afghan and Iranian soil to support the separatist groups in Pakistan. There is no doubt that the Indians are trying destabilize Pakistan with help from Afghan government, NDS, some other agencies and some near and distant countries.
In recent years Indian RAW years was actively involved in destabilizing Karachi and had funded heavily trying to create political and terror assets. Political activists and other criminal elements were also involved in creating chaos and anarchy in Karachi. This great city has seen much bloodshed in the past few decades and our economy was hurting as well due to foreign funded proxies. The situation in Baluchistan was also ignited after the killing of Akbar Bugti, Indian RAW tried to benefit from the situation and started helping exiled Baloch leaders. All logistic and financial support was always coming from Afghanistan in all types of scenarios mentioned above for supporting terror activities inside Pakistan for past many years.
The bottom line is that Afghanistan currently is and will continue to be a real security challenge for Pakistan. The border with Iran can be managed with sharp and aggressive diplomacy and with current SCO arrangement and CPEC alignment, it is more feasible to engage Iran. But all efforts to engage with Afghanistan are not going to a positive conclusion due to Indian and other nexus that aim to harm Pakistan. In order to safeguard Pakistan’s interests, we must be ready to undertake some additional steps in coming future. This is the sole right of a country to protect its interests and safeguard its citizens from any uncertainty due to war like situation emerging next door. The US has launched invasion on Afghanistan based upon the suspicion that Afghan Taliban government helped extremist groups that sponsored the September 11 attacks. Another example of recent days is when Turkey launched an assault on Syria against PKK/ YPG terror groups. Turkey is enforcing a zone of influence of about 30 km width along its border with Syria so that Turkey could be saved from ISIS, PKK and YPG terror groups.
Just like the above, the same tactics can be exercised by Pakistan to protect its borders if the time comes. The entire world knows that Afghanistan is a war-torn country and is the real sanctuary for all kinds of militant/ terrorist networks. Acting against terrorists that play inside Afghan soil is the right of a sovereign country like Pakistan. We should keep in mind that this is the world where only the powerful prevails so if anyone comments about India‘s ambitions in relation to Pakistan’s aggressive stance of establishing zone of influence inside Afghanistan, it will not be possible due to balance of power. I am not suggesting to take immediate steps as taken by Turkey and sending troops in the same way inside Afghanistan. Rather, there are ways how to establish a buffer zone and I am convinced the time is soon approaching when our planners must keep this option on the table.
For instance, pro-Pakistan tribesmen and militia forces can be activated beyond Durand Line. Active or semi active special flanks can be posted permanently beyond the Durand Line to prevent any threat towards Pakistan. These are not the steps we haven’t exercised previously but we have vast experience in 1980s afghan war where many tactical procedures were developed.
Foreseeing enormous strategic challenges from eastern and western borders, it is suggested that our planners consider below measures/ recommendations.
– Due to known risks from eastern and western side, Pakistan must make Iranian side of border safe by exhibiting sharp diplomacy. We must not let our security be jeopardized by the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Challenge for our Ministry of Foreign Affairs is how to keep fair balance without compromising on Pakistan’s wider interests.
– The intelligence networks need more resources keeping in mind various internal and external fronts. It includes all levels of resources starting from additional resources for defence agencies to civil law enforcement agencies.
– Joint intelligence collaboration with SCO member states can be extremely helpful for handling challenges from Afghanistan.
– NACTA must be activated fully on urgent basis so that effective coordination could be established amongst various agencies.
– We need to develop counter capabilities of civil law enforcement agencies quickly and aggressive IBO’s must be continued on long term basis.
– A sharp awareness campaign must be initiated to let Pakistani nation know about the effectiveness of 5th Generation warfare. This is the warfare that was been recently used for destroying Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen along with some pieces taken from Yugoslavian model. In this warfare, multi-pronged approach is used to destabilize a country with help from various forms of media, igniting regional and internal disputes, utilizing internal overt and covert proxies like BLA, TTP and religious sectarian groups, etc. Although Pakistan is the only country that defeated the 5th Gen-warfare elements from TTP Swat to Karachi based terror outfits and the rest will be taken care by effective IBO’s.
Pakistan is currently in the phase of strategic policy paradigm shift about ongoing war against terrorism in Afghanistan. First time in the country’s history, Pakistan is stepping away from traditional US bloc and getting closer to China and Russia. The membership of SCO bloc is a clear example. In addition, Pakistan’s role is pivotal for Chinese led OBOR vision due to flagship CPEC project under OBOR and SCO member countries largely in favor of this economic corridor. Due to this upcoming project, adversaries will try utmost to undermine Pakistan on all fronts. We, as a nation, must be ready and alert to reverse all such plans of our enemies.
