Cold War—an ideological battle between capitalism and communism witnessed 45 years of proxy wars, threatening environment and aggressive posture between the US and the U.S.S.R. The war concluded in 1991 soon after the formal breakup of the U.S.S.R, the leader of the communist world during the war period, but its blots can be observed all over the globe in different forms. The war transmogrified the entire geopolitical and security outlook of the world in favor of the US which took over as the sole super power at the inference. It’s almost three decades to the end of Cold War and differences in most of the regions have been settled except for one primal area which is redolent of the Cold War—Korean Peninsula. Geographically, Korea is like an arm of China: North being the upper portion (shoulder to elbow) and South the lower one (elbow to wrist). Since the 1953 armistice any peace treaty is yet to be achieved thereby technically placing the region at war for the last 65 years.
The Northeast Asian region comprises five major countries, three of which are technological and economic tycoons: China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Mongolia. Except the last one, the priorities of four countries shape the security paradigm of the entire region. Interestingly China has a nemesis in the form of Japan whereas despite consanguinity and cultural bonds North Korea has threatened on myriad occasions to wipe out off South Korea. The region depicts an elephantine presence of the US in Japan and South Korea two of its key allies. Both the countries rely heavily, in terms of security, on the US and have decades-long viable security agreements with the US. The US on the other hand gives utmost preference to the security of its Northeast Asian allies and it is widely believed that most important US policy documents like Nuclear Posture Review entails input from Japan and South Korea and their concerns are duly addressed every time the document is prepared. North Korea, laden with humanitarian crisis, is an impoverished pariah and authoritarian nuclear-capable state fundamentally depending on China for its survival. In fact China has been accused of impairing the effects of stringent sanctions and covertly supporting its neighbor. The North Koreans are edacious for their security and possession of nuclear weapons answers their questions and subsequent fears anent security. Therefore the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is not restricted to dismantlement of nukes from North Korea only; it equally takes into account the US conventional weapons, its heavy footprint and nuclear assets in South Korea and Japan besides modification in its military doctrines. Any peace agreement among the two Koreas and Japan or unification of Korea requires top quality diplomatic discussions and grit involving the US, China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea. And if achieved all the respective head of governments would be equally entitled to the Noble Peace Prize.
North Korea — an esurient state for security and nuclear weapons
Usually the countries are known for their scenic beauty, geographical landscape, natural attributes, development or even the nature of their people. For instance Japan is termed “Land of Rising Sun”, Australia—The Land of Golden Fleece, Thailand—The Land of Smiles, Palestine—The Land of Prophets and many more. But North Korea is identified from the behavior of its rulers under the Kim Dynasty. “Land of Paranoid Survivalists” and “Land of Lousy Options” are two distinctive identities of North Korea defining the impetuous attitude of the Kims ruling since 1953. Owing to North Korea’s reclusiveness and aloofness from the outside world it has also been called the land in uncharted waters.
Since the armistice the Kims have been highly concerned over the security of their state and have spent gargantuan sums on self-defense of their country. North Korea’s total military of 1.12 million approximately in numbers is 1.35 times larger than the joint military of its two adversaries South Korea (0.63 million) and Japan (0.25 million); even the huge phalanxes of the US army, that is 50,000 in Japan and 28,500 in South Korea if added the ratio would be reduced from 1.35 to 1.25 categorically placing the North Korea at upper edge in terms of numbers only. But personnel alone are futile unless equipped with latest arms and advances in the conventional weapons programs. North Korea did not lag behind in equipping its army; its amazing missile technology stunned the world in 1980s and 1990s. Nevertheless the conventional weapons systems were incapable of addressing North Korea’s security fears and threats arising from the presence of US nuclear weapons in its vicinity. Nuclear weapons are considered as the “gold standard” for measuring the defensive and deterrent capabilities of any state. Therefore the security obsession compelled the Kims to drive through the path of nuclear weapons in order to be in an equipoise state with its regional rivals. North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1993, but it formally withdrew in January 2003 and detonated its first ever nuclear weapon in October 2006 thereby obtaining the de facto status of a nuclear weapon state.
The North Korean leaders were as hungry as a hunter for possession of nuclear weapons. There were four major causes for going nuclear: security fears from the US and its allies (explained above); regime survival; obtaining a firm bargaining ground and recognition as a powerful nuclear state. The nuclear weapons fulfilled the dreams and desires of the North Koreans, the Kim’s nuclear regime now is in a much better bargaining position than ever, this was evinced from President Trump’s acceptance of a summit proposal by Kim Jong Un. The Korean War (1950-53) started during President Truman’s era (1945-53) and President Trump is the 13th US president since then but would be the first one to have a summit with the North Korean Leader. During the stated period the US history manifested some highly diplomatic presidents in the form of President Kennedy, President Nixon, President Clinton and President Obama whereas a bilateral agreement christened “Agreed Framework” was signed between the USA and North Korea on October 21st, 1994 in Geneva after four weeks of continual deliberations but a summit is yet to take place. On the other hand President Trump is neither diplomacy-oriented nor genteel enough to have agreed on meeting with the North Korean leader. Rather it’s the gravity of the nuclear crisis and the US’ acceptance of the fact that the use of blood and iron would result in absolute fiasco and a diplomatic path seems to be the sole available option for resolving nuclear standoff with North Korea.
DMZ, Kim Jong Un’s about-face and Inter-Korea Summits
The Korean peninsula is divided almost equally by “Demilitarized Zone, DMZ” established under the armistice agreement in 1953 between the North and South Korea. The 250 kilometers long and 4 kilometers wide DMZ area acts as a buffer region between the two Koreas. Pace the name “demilitarized” it is one of the world’s heavily militarized borders between two hostile neighbors. Seoul, the South Korean capital, is just 55 kilometers away from the DMZ making it an Achilles Heel for South Korea as the North Korean leaders hurl threats for reducing the city to rubble if the US or any of its allies attack the North. The proximity of Seoul with DMZ is believed to be the biggest stumbling block towards the path of preventive strikes on North Korea.
Notwithstanding ancestral linkages North and South Korea have diplomatically remained aloof from each other. During the course of 65 years only 3 summits have taken place between the North and South Korean leaders, the first two being in North Korean capital Pyongyang in 2000 and 2007 whereas the much-hyped 3rd summit has recently taken place in Panmunjom village on the Southern side of DMZ on 27th April 2018. This summit marked a unique feature: Kim Jong Un, the third generation Kim, became the first North Korean leader to step into the Southern control side of DMZ. His regime, since the death of his father in October 2011, witnessed not only escalated tensions with its adversaries but strain in relations with China also. Kim’s paranoia can be gauged from the fact that he did not visit China, the lifeblood of North Korea, during the first six years of his regime. Rather he accused China of dancing to the tunes of US in February last year when China banned coal imports from North Korea for one year. His two visits to China this year, a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-In, and proposal for a summit with the US president Donald Trump flabbergasted the world. Such a volte-face from the North Korean leader was unimaginable just six months ago. There were three major factors which compelled the North Korean leader to follow the diplomatic path: First, the Chinese President Xi Jinping has been believed to play a significant role via back channel diplomacy; second the new President of South Korea Moon Jae In, soft-spoken and progressive, aimed at normalization of North-South relations soon after assumption of his charge; and third the prohibition of coal imports by China gravely undermined the economy of North Korea.
The Panmunjom Summit was followed by Declaration for peace, prosperity and unification of Korea. The declaration pinpointed normalization of inter-Korean relations, reducing the military tensions with a special focus on converting the highly militarized DMZ into a peace zone, establishment of a permanent and solid peace regime, and taking tangible steps towards denuclearization thereby making a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Of the four major goals agreed upon by the Korean leaders in the declaration, they can implement the first two only in bilateral manner through successful diplomacy; whereas the permanent regime and denuclearization cannot be achieved without involving the US and China, in fact also Japan. By dint of US involvement in the region, its congenial relations and security guarantees to South Korea and Japan, and rivalry with China the permanent regime and denuclearization is not a lost cause but a herculean diplomatic task requiring patience, compromise, endurance and above all cessation of animosity and hostile maneuvers. If unification of Korea the terminus of Korean leaders, is also taken into account then without normalizing the US-China relations the target would be unachievable. The declaration has also envisaged trilateral or quadrilateral meeting for permanent and solid regime but it would be transformed into penta-lateral by inclusion of Japan when denuclearization would be discussed.
Kim’s denuclearization offer
The previous calendar year was a year of threatening and opprobrious exchanges between the US and North Korean leaders. On the eve of New Year 2017, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un while addressing his nation said that North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles would soon reach the US mainland. Donald Trump, the US President-elect at that time, replied by posting a non-descript tweet “It won’t happen.” Similarly in April 2017 President Trump announced sending an armada towards North Korean region in a display of military might but he retracted later on. The second half of the year furthered the aggravation in the form of infamous “fire and fury” statement from President Trump, calling Kim Jong Un “Little Rocket Man” and envisioning the total destruction of North Korea in the elite forum of UN General Assembly in September. Kim Jong Un reciprocated by repeated missile testing, threatening the mow down in South Korea and Japan and by calling President Trump a mentally deranged person. In a nutshell, at the conclusion of year 2017 war clouds seemed prepared for raining in the Korea Peninsula under the highly pulverizing First Strike doctrine called Bloody Nose Strikes.
But in the year 2018, to the wonderment of everyone both the US President and North Korean leader have boxed the compass. The offer of denuclearization by Kim Jong Un and summit proposal to the US president stupefied the entire world. After surprise acceptance of the proposal from President Trump, he tweeted that Singapore be the place of rendezvous between both the leaders on June 12. During the last three months Kim has repeatedly offered denuclearization of his country in exchange of security guarantees from the US. Kim’s about-face in nuclear policy outstrips that of normalization of inter-Korean relations and proposals of summit with the US president. Perhaps he has walked an extra mile by successfully arranging dismantlement ceremony of nuclear testing site “Punggye-ri” from 23–25 May bearing out his pledge for no further nuclear testing and has boasted for achieving the requisite nuclear deterrence. Though Chinese geologists have recently reported an extremely dilapidated condition of the Punggye-ri site, the sole active nuclear testing site in the world, due to continual testing but Kim has divulged two more active tunnels at the same site besides the original damaged one. The actual ratio decidendi for Kim’s decision apropos the dismantlement of Punggye-ri site, at a distance of just 100 miles from China’s border, is not known but it is believed that its decrepit state has compelled China to pressurize the North Korean government to stall nuclear testing there owing to radiation hazards in the border area of China. The North Korean government has also extended invitation to journalists from the US, the UK, Russia and China for witnessing the event. However the world media has called this step a dog-and-pony show due to obtrusive display of the event. The critics have added that after tumbling down the spavined site, Kim might not allow the IAEA inspectors while taking plea that the same had been witnessed by the journalists from five states.
The denuclearization rhetoric and a pragmatic step by dismantling the nuclear site showcase a “new Kim” different than the grudging Kim who went berserk for obtaining nuclear and missile capabilities. The new Kim may hardly get any benefit from the summit with the US president however avenues for future negotiations may be opened. Additionally direct up-down meetings yield no or less results unless supported by bottom-up diplomacy which fastidiously defines the case for disparate moves. Before going to the summit Kim Jong Un must remember that it is North Korea which has agreed to decade-long denuclearization demand of the US. As flaunted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the US would unleash an era of prosperity in the North Korea if it surrendered its nuclear weapons, North Korea had to align with the US demands and travel through a tortuous route. Even descrying the complexities in the first stage of negotiations, that is, path and incentives for denuclearization would be too difficult for Kim Jong Un. President Trump calls for permanent denuclearization and dismantling the nuclear infrastructure within six months to one year and declaration of North Korea as nuclear-free state by IAEA is the propitious moment for him to reward the North Koreans holus-bolus (all at once). Whereas North Korea and China have agreed on phased approach: incentives and sanctions reliefs at different stages during the denuclearization period.
The unilateral nuclear abandonment demand by President Trump and Libya-style denuclearization suggestion from National Security Advisor John Bolton irked the North Korean leader enough to threaten his country’s pull out from the Singapore summit if the US continued its unyielding and bellicose position. President Trump has already added a new feature in the US disarmament approach towards North Korea in a more rigid manner. The Bush administration coined the phrase “Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Disarmament CVID” of North Korea in mid-2000s. The Trump administration has included the word permanent with a self-explanatory difference. Therefore denuclearization would be followed by stringent verification of entire North Korea by IAEA on permanent basis thereby eliminating probability of surreptitious nuclear activities. Moreover even after denuclearization and verification it would be difficult to convince President Trump that North Korea would not produce nuclear weapon at any time. He might demand “any time-everywhere” or “every time-anywhere” type inspection from IAEA like the case of Iran. Similarly his impulsive personality and aversion towards international regimes may compel him to call for inclusion of US personnel in the inspection process along with the IAEA or separate inspection by US inspectors only. Therefore the journey towards the denuclearization is a tough sledding besides being an irritating matter and the North Koreans might feel the US plans as serpentine or they might even accuse the US of hoodwinking during the process. Whereas the geopolitical prospects of Korean denuclearization presents an extremely labyrinthine situation highlighting the conflicting and overlapping interests of four Northeast Asian states and the US.
Kim’s goodwill gestures
Soon after the Panmunjom Summit, Kim has synchronized the North Korean clock time by advancing it to 30 minutes with that of South Korea’s. But the bigger diplomatic gesture was disenthralling the three US detainees after meeting with the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang who also achieved the distinction of being the first ever high-level US official to meet the North Korea leader. If this gesture was aimed only at his upcoming Singapore summit with the US president and with no hidden cause, motive or settlement, then it speaks volumes of Kim’s turn-around and rapacity for normalizing relations with the outside world. To the surprise of every one, the detainees were received at the tarmac by President Trump and first lady thereby underlining the importance of the event. Kim, whose era is riddled with executions on mere suspicions, has shown his new conciliatory face to the international community by releasing the three US captives.
However Kim requires a marked gesture from the US and South Korea: Suspension of joint US-South Korea military exercises which he calls an “act of war and a rehearsal of invasion.” Nothing infuriates Kim more than the protracted joint US-ROK military exercises. The three major joint US-ROK exercises are Eagle Foul, Key Resolve and Max Thunder. The inception of air-based Max Thunder on May 11 angered the North Korean leader, compelling him to announce suspension of high-level diplomatic talks with South Korea. Kim termed these exercises paradoxical with the recent Panmunjom declaration which flat out called for cessation of hostile acts between the two Koreas. The US and South Korea must consider the gesture desired by the North Korean leader at least during the negotiations period; failing that the expectation of diplomatic breakthrough or settlement of outstanding issues would be a surreal dream. The US must recall its offered “freeze-for-freeze” plan to Iran where Iran was offered a freeze in sanctions by the US in lieu of freeze in enrichment from Iran. Previous year, China suggested this plan and called for freeze in nuclear and missile testing by the North Koreans and subsequent freeze in sanctions from the US. The proposal was suddenly downplayed by the US government. The diplomatic dialogue may never proceed further if the joint military drills go unhindered transpicuous from the recent suspension of North-South talks by Kim.
Denuclearization in geopolitical terms
Geopolitically the Northeast Asian region is a nuclear-affluent region with 4 of its 5 states possessing advanced nuclear programs. China and North Korea are the nuclear-armed states whereas South Korea and Japan have highly robust nuclear energy infrastructures besides presence of the US nuclear weapons in South Korean territory for deterrence purpose. Japan is believed to be the only non-weapon state under NPT having mastered both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technologies. The denuclearization would not be hemmed in to North Korea only; it would broadly encompass South Korea and Japan and above all major modification in the US’ defense documents would be required. The denuclearization of North Korea would significantly alter the security outlook of the entire region. The frontier of China with North Korea and the role of later as buffer state between the communist and the capitalist world would play a major role while denuclearizing or unifying the Korean peninsula. Though Japan is not contiguous with either China or the two Koreas, any security arrangement minus Japan cannot be materialized owing to US’s ironclad security commitments with Japan.
Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader has recently stressed the need of US security guarantees to his country and added that if the same were provided to North Korea, there would be no logical reason for his country to retain nuclear weapons. The security guarantees alone may not resolve the matter rather the presence and future of US footprint and its conventional and nuclear weaponry in the region have to play a decisive role. If the denuclearization is racked up successfully, it would call into question the US role in the region which must be addressed adequately; otherwise the US and China will be in contretemps thereby opening a new avenue for aggression. There are two visible but least-likely scenarios after security guarantees are assured to the North Koreans:
Extending the security guarantees along with US footprint
In this scenario South Korea-like positive security assurance may be offered to the North Koreans which would be enticing for them as an attack on North Korea will be treated as an attack on the US. Surely such a guarantee would demand a sizable US presence on the North Korean soil—a nightmarish scenario for China. Obviously after the presence of US troops on its territory, the North Korean government would be friendly towards the US. Such a position would be sepulchral for China as it would not only have to face hostile army in its neighbor probably at its border but it strengthens the position of its arch-rival Japan in the region. China would feel horribly threatened when joint military exercises between the North and South Korean armies under the patronage of the US army would take place. Owing to the commonality in opinion with China, Russia would also oppose any such arrangement. Though the probability of such a settlement is least-likely but if happens a new war zone will get its birth.
Extending security guarantees with little or no US foot print
This scenario offers similar security guarantees to the North Korea as like the previous one with presence of extremely light or even zero US foot print in the Korean region. The justification of light footprint arises from the fact that both the Koreas have relinquished enmity between them and are jointly covered by the US extended deterrence under positive security assurance. Besides there is no arch-rival of Korea in the region; though they have differences with Japan but are far from making them rivals. The US can cover the Korean region anywhere from the world under its “prompt nuclear strike doctrine” and not least from its troops present in Japan. This scenario is antithetical to the previous one and it would be absolutely unacceptable for the US besides being macabre for both South Korea and Japan. South Korea maintains 28,500 US troops and its successive governments have remained adamant on maintaining the same whether or not peace deal is signed with North Korea. On the other hand Japan would call such a step as “surrender of Korean Peninsula to China.” The US will never agree on such a move which drastically affects its influence in the Korean region besides paving the way for China to be the un-confronted regional state with bullying power.
As explained earlier that geopolitical perspective of denuclearization requires enough diplomatic deliberations, patience and resilience. The two explained options would never emerge as reality; therefore the US, China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea would have to conclude a tertium quid middle path of these two agreed upon by all the five states. Japan would be the least biddable state during the negotiations as peace in Korea would cut to the bone the US’ role and importance in the region thereby eventuating a much superior position of China. The more powerful position of China would undercut Japan’s position on disputed Senkaku Islands in East China Sea against China. A dominant China, which has already refused to accept the 2016 judgment of International Court of Justice on South China Sea, would be unacceptable for the US even. Though the US-Japan security agreement of 1954 ensures Japan’s security in the wake of external aggression but its nuclear hedging capabilities have severely pared down its break out time to preparing a nuclear weapon. Unfettered and bi-directional sea domination of China, both in South China and East China Sea, coupled with reduction in the US influence and weaponry in the region may compel Japan to think of a nuclear option for its own security and survival. Though the public perception in Japan is utterly against nuclear weapons and Japan’s legislative assembly Diet refuted the nuclear weapons in 1971 under its Three Non-Nuclear Principles defining Japan a terra incognita (No preparation, No possession and No permission of entry into Japan) for nuclear weapons in future. Nevertheless Japan would surely reconsider its Three Non-Nuclear Principles if the existing strategic equilibrium in East Asian calibrated in favor of China.
Militaristic mind, terrible relic and unsavory lessons
The US maintains an unpalatable history with nuclear aspirants. After curbing the nuclear advances or even relinquishing the entire nuclear program in line with the US demands, the respective agreements or even leaders have seen Kafkaesque fate. The experience of Libya’s denuclearization agreed by Colonel Qaddafi in exchange of relief from the US sanctions in 2003, torpedoing the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework by the Bush administration in 2002, and scuttling the 2015 JCPOA between Iran and six world powers by President Trump provide a cautionary point to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before concluding his country’s nuclear program. Interestingly the incumbent US National Security Advisor John Bolton, a believer of US’ military might and disbeliever of diplomacy, has prominent roles in ripping up both the historic agreements. The US preventive strikes are the panacea of all the ills for Bolton. The North Koreans’ anathema for Bolton is immeasurable and his recent suggestion of Libya-model denuclearization of North Korea enrages the North Korean leader by recalling him of the fate of Qaddafi within one decade of giving up his country’s embryonic nuclear program. Assuming peace deal or thaw in US-North Korea relations while Bolton being the US National Security Advisor is tantamount to seeing pink elephants. Bolton’s truculent rhetoric has placed a huge question mark over the Singapore summit between the US and North Korea and if not mollified, Kim Jong Un would convert his threat of pulling out from the summit into reality.
The US’s scathing withdrawal from 1994 Agreed Framework by Bush administration is reminiscent of its broken pledges with North Korea. The US gave energy assurances by promising the provision of two 1000 MWs Light Water Reactors, LWRs, and supply of heavy oil in return of curbing plutonium technology progress and North Korea’s pledge to remain a member of NPT. The agreement is widely believed to put brakes on North Korean nuclear program but the ground breaking ceremony of a LWR was yet to be arranged even in the 9th year of agreement the year of US pull out from the agreement. North Korea’s terrible relic in the form of the US’s deplorable exit from the bilateral agreement interrogates the US’s offer to North Korea of security guarantees and assurance of prosperity in exchange of its nukes.
But President Trump’s ex parte withdrawal from the JCPOA is unmatched while discussing the abrogation of treaties and agreements by the US. A nuclear agreement, whose 100 % compliance was reported by the international nuclear watchdog and 5 of the 6 world powers urged for giving an oleaginous go-ahead to the landmark deal, suffered a grisly fate under the hands of the unabashed and unrelenting US President. The unsavory lessons from one-sided strangulation of JCPOA would engender irresolvable encumbrances in the path of diplomatic settlement of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. Besides President Trump’s baseless apprehensions on the Iran Deal another significant reason was his desire to efface the name of Obama from the deal. Now if President Trump gets success in clinching a nuclear deal with North Korea as per his wishes and demands addressing all his reservations, a big question would finally remain un-answered: Who would assure the continuity of the North Korean nuclear deal after January 2021 or 2025. the probable years of President Trump leaving the White House? Neither any veto-yielding power involved in the negotiations would guarantee nor would the US senate ratify the continuity of any such deal during the next administrations. The repercussions of disrupting the Iran nuclear deal would play an inescapable part, for a long time, in settling the nuclear issues with other states. Thanks to President Trump, fool hardy enough for irretrievably damaging US’ credibility and tarnishing its already limping international image of nuclear dealings.
Summit scrapped—Back to nuclear threats
May-24 marked the end of diplomatic efforts as President Trump cancelled his Singapore summit with the North Korean leader on the pretext of tremendous anger from the North Korean side. The North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had already threatened his country’s pull out from the summit owing to unilateral denuclearization demand and belligerent rhetoric from the US. The inflammatory stance of US Vice President Mike Pence, a day before, reminding about the Libya-like fate to the North Koreans if denuclearization is not agreed upon by them diplomatically ramped up bilateral kerfuffle to the level of suspension of summit. North Korea replied by threatening a nuclear show down with the US besides calling Mike Pence a political dummy and stupid. The cancellation letter issued by the White House, signed by President Trump, conceitedly underlines the powerful nuclear weapons of the US along with the prayer of not using them. President Trump also added that the US military is ready to respond the reckless acts from North Korea. The ball was in the US’ court as three goodwill gestures of Kim conveyed his willingness for the summit with the US president but the US disrupted the environment created for rite de passage meeting after substantial efforts from different stake holders.
The summit would have been the biggest diplomatic breakthrough in the 16-month long tenure of President Trump. It would have mellowed down, to some extent, President Trump’s stiff and supercilious outlook created in the wake of disruption of JCPOA. The White House Communications Agency, WHCA, a military unit attached with the President, issued a commemorative coin for the summit between the US President and North Korean leader. Kim Jong Un has been named as “Supreme leader” rather than Chairman of ruling party and state affairs thereby equating his status with that of Khameini, the supreme leader of Iran having final say in all the affairs. The commemorative coin received flak owing to accepting a tyrant and autocrat as Supreme leader.
South Korean President Moon Jae-In’s fervor for the Singapore summit pushed him to meet President Trump in White House on May 22 for palliating the rigidity from the US side. President Trump’s walking away from the summit during the joint press conference was perspicuous as he categorically obliterated any chance of the much-awaited summit happening and called for fulfillment of his pre-summit demands besides indicating deferment of the planned summit. He also accused China of derailing Kim from the diplomatic track.
Nonetheless President Trump has indicated for a future summit with the North Korean leader but this will would not happen soon. And whenever it happens it would be under the shadow of same pre-summit bilateral acrimonious exchanges between them especially from the US side owing to presence of hawks in the Trump administration. The occurrence of any future Summit between the US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, even after preparing the schedule, cannot be predicted till the time when both leaders shake hand with each other before the media on the said date: Any of them might walk away from the summit just hours before the meeting time. Except for the father-son like age-gap, much is common between the two leaders that would shape the pre-summit conditions and post-summit outcomes: mercurial temperament, irascibility, inscrutability, impatience, impulsiveness, high headedness, obstinacy and a past replete with scurrilous nuncupative falling-out.
The mordant speeches from the US side in future will converge on the option of use of force de frappe from the US side. At least the Trump administration must not equate North Korea with Libya on any parameter as the former is a nuclear-capable state whereas the latter’s nuclear program was in its initial stages at the time of surrender in 2003. Moreover if Libya’s fate is looked upon then no country will relinquish its nuclear program. The first ever summit would have kicked off an unprecedented diplomatic era for bilateral relations between the US and North Korea and the summit day would be remembered as a red-letter day in the US-North Korea diplomatic history. The ex-parte cancellation of summit by the US President will imprint long-lasting distrusting effects in the minds of the North Koreans and will be recalled as the second most acrid act in the US-North Korea diplomatic chronicles after the US scuttled the Agreed Framework in 2003. Above all Kim will feel duped as the demolition of nuclear site and release of three US captives earned him nothing except an exponential surge in his anger and repugnance for the US.
