Recently President of Turkey H.E. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced snap presidential and parliamentary elections, labelling it a “turning point” in the national history of his country. Justice and Development Party (AKP) has nominated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as its candidate for the upcoming presidential election to be held on June 24, 2018.
He vowed that the government will not allow the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the movement of U.S based Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, a former close ally of the government that the authorities now call the Fetullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), to divide Turkey. These elections would further enhance the spirit of nationalism and brotherhood in the country.
Turkey’s main political parties are rushing to start campaigns for a snap election. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) called the election for the betterment of the country and its people having no personal agenda. After a referendum in 2017, Turkey is slowly but gradually inching toward becoming a presidential republic and the post of prime minister will be abolished after this election. It will set new rules of governance, execution and decision making.
There is hue and cry in some quarters in Turkey as well as in the region about the snap election. They term it as a “ride a favorable wave of nationalism and cash in on a popular mandate before so called dark clouds over the economy turn into a storm which is not based on facts.
Being a regional expert on Turkey it is predicted that opposition parties will have trouble even finding a unifying candidate to oppose Erdogan. Turkey is upset that EU states have criticized the election. The Monitoring Committee of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) called on Ankara to postpone the vote which is clear cut violation of even international law.
Snap Elections and Financial & Money Markets
Following President Erdoğan’s announcement, uncertainty in the markets ended with the Turkish lira spiking against the dollar and euro and the stock market rising over 1 percent within less than an hour. The president’s call, however, was not only welcomed by markets but also by members of the Turkish business world as they hailed the decision as a move to discharge risks emanating from uncertainty and expedition of the reformative processes for the economy. The U.S. dollar-Turkish lira exchange rate rose from 4.07 to 4.12 at first while the stock market fell over 1.5 percent. The euro also dropped to below TL 5 ($1.2). The Borsa Istanbul was also up by 1.42 percent and reached 110,928 points. The dollar was trading at TL 4.03 while the euro was hovering around TL 4.99 yesterday. Moreover, the Borsa Istanbul benchmark index BIST 100 stood at around 111,856 points.
Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ICC)
Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Chairman Şekib Avdagiç said that early elections offer good prospects for the real macro-economy. The business world will move investment decisions ahead as the new presidential system will start as the mode of governance in the country. The transition to the new system will ensure political stability which will support economic growth in the future.
Chairman of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (MÜSİAD)
Chairman of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (MÜSİAD) Abdurrahman Kaan stressed that stability in domestic and foreign politics establish the most important “driving force” or “element of push-forward” for the business world to continue working to boost employment and growth. It will support business stability.
Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) Chairman
Chairman of Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) Nail Olpak said that the snap elections would eliminate uncertainties for the business world. The elections will make it easier for the business world to effectively and quickly decide on investments and steer its way.
Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Chairman
Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Chairman Erdal Bahçıvan stressed that holding elections in the first half of the year is a positive decision for the Turkish economy and industry too. The early elections have weakened uncertainty and enabled Turkey to reinforce stability.
Young Businessmen’s Confederation of Turkey (TÜGİK) Chairman
Young Businessmen’s Confederation of Turkey (TÜGİK) Chairman Erkan Güral pinpointed that the excitement and morale that the transition to the new system will create will be positive on the economic indicators.
Goldman Sachs (April-May 2018)
The U.S based investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has also highlighted the positive reactions of the markets to the snap elections. The reaction of the markets may have been triggered by the expectation of improvement of political environment as well as by the investors’ preference for political stability.
JP Morgan (May 2018)
Another investment bank, JP Morgan, stressed that snap polls reduced the risks of fiscal expansion. JP Morgan regarded the decision for early elections as a market-friendly decision. The snap elections will diminish the period of political uncertainty while it mitigates the risks resulting from fiscal expansion.
Approval of Turkish Parliament
Turkey’s parliament has approved holding the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections a year-and-half early. Legislators voted overwhelmingly in favor of holding the elections on June 24, these were previously scheduled for November 2019. The snap polls give the opposition little time to mount a weighty campaign against Erdogan.
Fair, Free & Transparent Elections
The announcement was taken with surprise in different quarters in the country but the Turkish government is committed to hold free, fair and transparent elections. It is predicted that AKP’s alliance with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will emerge as the winners in the upcoming Presidential Election 2018.
Transition to Transformation
Right now Turkey is passing through a transition to transformation phase. The snap election will be the first since a referendum in April 2017 that transformed Turkey’s parliamentary democracy into a powerful “executive presidency” and will hand the president sweeping new powers after the elections. It is a first giant step towards smarter governance, rationale decision making and implementation of policies and programs in the country. It would speed the implementation of the constitutional changes approved in the last year referendum 2017 which will give the president broad new powers upon completion of the next national election.
Strategic Importance of Executive Presidency
Rapidly changing geopolitical and geostrategic chances in the region and beyond needs an executive presidency instead of ceremonial status presidency in Turkey. Hopefully it would revolutionize its macro-economy and attract more and more inflows of FDIs in the country. In April 2017, 51 percent of Turks voted in favor of the referendum that abolished the parliamentary system and could allow having presidential system in the country.
Snap Presidential Election & Constitution
Snap Presidential election is not against the true spirits of its constitution which permits to hold a snap election. According to the new political system, the elected president will be able to prepare the budget and appoint high-level officials, including ministers and judges. In addition, the president will be able to declare a state of emergency, a power currently held by the government. The president could also in some circumstances dissolve parliament.
Political Alliance
The ruling AKP is expected to campaign in an alliance with the minority Nationalist Movement Party, whose leader had lobbied for early elections. The main opposition CHP party, the Republican People’s Party, is expected to run alone but has not yet named a presidential candidate.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: A Strategist
President of Turkey H.E. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a great political scientist who knows the value of political dynamics and milestones. It capitalizes on the largely successful Turkish campaign against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and a general sense in Turkey that the broader war with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is going well. The latest round of spats with Turkey’s Western allies, including the United States and Greece, also plays well domestically.
Lessing Elements of Risks
It is hoped that snap elections would also lessen “elements of risk” in the country. Growing economic instability would be rectified. Holding of snap elections would further strengthen its national economy. It would also create financial stability in the country.
Fundamental Justifications
| REASONS | DETAILS |
| Offer by the MHP | MHP demanded a snap election 2018 which has successful alliance with the ruling party Justice and Development Party (AK Party). |
| Elimination of Financial Instability | Snap election would reduce risks of financial instability in the country. It would rather enhance level of trust among potential businessmen and investors. |
| Boost to Public-Private Partnership | Political chaos creates uncertainties and political stability provides economic sustainability. |
| Weak Opposition Parties | It is feared that opposition parties may start agitation against the government so to avoid it, snap election would be a good political strategy. |
| Completion of Transition | Turkey chose a presidential system on April 16, 2017 and since then has been in a transitional period. The transitionary laws required for the new governing system have been in the making since that day. But the resistance points and transitionary reflexes, especially in the government bureaucracy, have made it difficult for political actors in decision-making positions, which also make enacting long-term policies difficult. |
Turkey Loves Democracy
Turkey loves democracy and wishes that the country’s government should be chosen through competitive elections. A recent study found that 86 percent of Turkish citizens believed that “supporting democratic values” was somewhat or very important to being a Turk. Holding of snap elections would further strengthen the process of politicization and democratization in the country. It is a reality that Erdogan remains a tremendously popular politician. The opposition remains divided and mostly unimpressive.
Erdogan’s far-right ally Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), was the first to demand snap elections, saying on April 17 that it would be difficult for the country to “endure current circumstances.” The Turkish president agreed to the MHP leader’s request the next day.
The vote will complete the transformation of the political system, eliminating the prime minister’s job and weakening the role of parliament. It has become a necessity for Turkey to overcome uncertainties as soon as possible amid developments of historical importance in our region as well as the cross-border operation we are carrying out in Syria,” Erdogan said in announcing the vote.
Snap Election & Geopolitical Aspects
To safe guard its vested national interest and stop the further division of Syrian society, Turkish army invaded northern Syria. It had strategic aim of dislodging Kurdish fighters from Afrin canton and blocking Kurdish plans to connect Afrin with the other Kurdish cantons in Syria. It fears that any successful effort for self-government in northern Syria by the Kurds might fuel secessionist dynamics in southeastern Turkey as well, where more than 12 million Kurds reside.
Turkish domestic public opinion reacted positively to the speed with which the army captured Afrin. However, as the operations in Syria and Iraq continue to drive up the death toll, uncertainty rises. Probably Erdogan desires to revive the public mandate in order to go along with his wider geopolitical plans in Syria and Iraq.
Direct Presidential Elections
In national history of Turkey snap election will mark the first time that a direct presidential election will be held under a new system which will give the president increased powers, following a constitutional referendum last year upgrading the parliamentary system to an executive presidency.
Over the seven decades of the Turkish democracy, it witnessed two military coups, a failed coup attempt and a number of direct and indirect military interventions in political system. Turkey also experienced fragile coalition governments that were unable to manage the government and state affairs properly.
Supportive Role of Opposition Parties
The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and other opposition parties have selected path of democracy and ready for a democratic competition instead of illegal street protests and have to prepare for an electoral race.
Snap Elections & Foreign Policy
It has been guessed that foreign policy issues are also the main factor in the decision to call snap elections. Critical developments in Syria and the region are at the forefront of these challenges. Turkey has been faced with serious foreign policy pitfalls in the past few years and, obviously, it will need to take crucial steps while the region continues to go through a very important and uncertain era.
1. Syria: Turkey goes to the polls at a time when it is conducting a military operation in northern Syria against the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian armed wing of terrorist organization the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and playing the significant role of guarantor at the Astana peace process that could shape the future of Syria. The fate of Syria in particular and Turkey’s position in the regional arena in general, is closely linked to the outcome of the elections. Any change in the government in Ankara, which admittedly seems unlikely for now, could alter Turkey’s long-term foreign policy goals and future action in war-torn Syria.
2. USA: Turkey’s relationship with the US is expected to change even if there is a new government in Ankara. One of the main controversies behind the deterioration of Turkish-US relations was Washington’s support for the YPG, which is unacceptable to Ankara.
3. EU: It is expected that relations with the EU are likely to remain tensed as several European countries, including Germany, continue to ban Turkish politicians from campaigning on their soil though Erdogan has declared he plans to hold an election rally in Europe. The support of millions of Turks in Europe remains crucial in this election.
4. Russia: Relations with Russia, with which Turkey closely cooperates through the Astana process, are unlikely to change even if the balance of power shifts in Ankara. It is been accepted by Turkish politicians from all sides that despite divergent views on several matters, Turkish-Russian relations remain crucial and are vital to preserve the approach to Syria.
5. Greece: Erdogan’s decision to call for snap elections on June 24 is of direct consequence to Greece, more than at any other time, as the Turkish president increasingly espouses a nationalist stance and invests in the political gains this brings him.
Concluding Remarks
The survival of human civilization has been based on efficiency and delivery of the system since long. Actors of survival have been largely dependent on smartness of the political system not composition of the system. Political system which has been dominated by personalities is deemed to perish but a political system which has been based on human values, equality, dignity, diversity, development and dialogue is still functional and active around the globe. The Turkish political system is reflective of all these golden principles of democracy, civility and decency.
The snap Elections 2018 of Turkey is a systematic response to overcome system deficiencies instead of creating uncertainties and chaos. Snap presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on June 24, 2018 which will change the entire system of Turkish governance. It will shift parliamentary form government into presidential form of government which is the need of the hour.
Living in a complex and complicated web of political uncertainties having compounding economic nationalism there is urgent need for a “executive presidency” not a ceremonial presidency in Turkey.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not a sultan/ one man show. He is an articulated and dignified public figure who loves his country and people alike. He is also a political strategist who knows the value of timing in the political battle. It is predicted that snap elections would reduce elements of fear/ risk from the productive sectors and channels in Turkey’s macro-economy. The largest economy in the region once again would be in a much more comfort zone after snap elections 2018.
