Pakistan is located in the area where major geo strategic transformation is taking place rapidly due to many factors involving US presence in Afghanistan and its future plans, US India partnership in Indian Ocean region (IOR), new emerging SCO bloc, Chinese led OBOR project in which CPEC is the critical part and rapidly magnifying independence movements in India. Moreover, the ongoing rift between GCC nations is an addition to the regional complexity which has impacted heavily on the region’s inter connectivity and the foreign policy. Due to these mentioned factors, it is clear that the region in which Pakistan is located, will be subject to many conflicts in coming future due to power struggle between different power players and their subsequent economic and strategic interests. Moreover, the emergence of Indian naval alliance with Australian, US and other Pacific navies is a notable factor for Pakistan’s policy makers and it must be responded with a solid plan and role recognition.
Pakistan is sufficiently strong enough in terms of land based forces with tactical weapon systems along with significant attention towards air power development. The success of the recent military operations and reversal of the enemy plans mainly in Swat, North/ South Waziristan, insurgency affected areas of Balochistan and in urban Karachi proved the capabilities of our proud intelligence services and combat forces. The only area where Pakistan needs to pay utmost attention is the naval power development. As I have said in my previous articles a country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power, and without a strong navy, Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations.
Pakistan naval challenges are enormous in nature due to the fact that Pakistan navy was an ignored force for many decades along with absence of role clarity. Pakistan inherited an arch rival India which has severe ambitions to demonstrate her hegemonies in South Asia and beyond and expanding her naval power significantly. Pakistan is building a vast network of road and power infrastructure through OBOR vision with help of China and a reliable powerful navy is essential to sustain uninterrupted trade activities. In order to meet these challenges, a number of steps have been taken and there is a great sense of realization amongst leadership to strengthen the naval power.
Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is 240, 000 Sq. Km, with continental shelf extending a further 50, 000 sq. km. The area is rich in fishery, possibly hydrocarbons and seabed resources and Pakistan aspires to leverage the EEZ for socio economic development. It is therefore, in Pakistan’s interest to see that the environment at sea is secure and stable to pursue legitimate interests unimpeded.
Under OBOR Vision which adds new economic and strategic dimensions to the above-mentioned challenges, the strengthening ties between Pakistan and China through CPEC is also another dimension because China wants to safeguard its oil supply from Middle East that was passing mainly through Strait of Malacca which is mainly under Allied influence and can come under naval blockade in case of any high-level tensions between US and China. So geo political importance of CPEC is critical factor for future Chinese engagement with maritime security in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean along with Pakistan navy. We must keep in mind if we somehow lack in defending our own EEZ and its related interests, then “others” will do it and we will be at the losing end but I am glad to mention that the current naval leadership is aware of these challenges.
Pakistan navy has traversed a long distance since its creation and got significant naval warfare exposure in previous Indo-Pak wars, participating in war drills and leading multi national task force. The size of the navy and its specific role amongst the inter services defence beauracracy however is still an area of discussion although many milestones have been achieved in past few years specially and in past decade generally and CPEC itself dictates a big role for Pakistan Navy. The challenge here for Pakistan Navy is how to change the traditional mind set of the defence establishment which is heavily based upon a land-based approach.
Seeing Pakistan’s land border situation and hostility amongst its immediate neighbors, this land-based approach might prevail for a longer period of time, however, the new paradigm change as a result of connectivity related activities and Chinese access to Arabian Sea is the key element to elaborate internally with the establishment for sake of significant resources allocation. One has to keep in mind, the CPEC trade route will be only safe guarded if a powerful navy stands behind it. Handling this paradigm shift, Pakistan military establishment must realize for having a multi-lateral approach by utilizing and effectively employing tri-services strategy for economical and maritime trade protection purposes. Having mentioned the above scenario, my intention is to elaborate for readers that nations with strong economic growth and military strength will eventually sustain the aftermath of the said ongoing regional and global power struggle.
In Pakistan’s 290,000 Sq. Km area of maritime influence, sea food is a precious resource where our fish production in the marine sector, extending up to 35 nautical miles from the coast, is nearly 70 percent while the remaining 30 percent is obtained from inland sector. There is no reliable data on the quantum of fish resource beyond 35 nautical miles limit in the EEZ which is routinely transgressed by fishing trawlers from other countries. Pakistan is losing precious economic opportunities due to the absence of reliable fishery data across its EEZ and extended shelf. The trespassers who are equipped with latest technology for fish processing, are taking huge benefit due to this capability gap. These trespassers are from various countries in the region and beyond where fish industry is well modernized and established. Pakistan’s Maritime Security Agency (MSA) frequently apprehends Indian fishermen who intrude into Pakistani waters but its reach and capacity against bigger offenders operating further south of the coast is severely constrained. MSA does not have sufficient air surveillance assets to monitor the activities in EEZ, nor does it have enough surface vessel resources to effectively police the area once intruders have been reported. The Ministry of Shipping and Ports along with Ministry of Defence and Interior must develop an aggressive plan to tackle such challenges.
One of the challenges we may have to encounter is the ambitious navigation within our exclusive economic zone by navies of different world superpowers. They don’t necessarily follow and respect the UN assigned area of maritime influence of a country and often intentionally trespass the area of that country’s territorial maritime jurisdiction. For example, the United States has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which codified in a treaty the longstanding principle of freedom of navigation. Recently a development occurred that was mentioned by Retired Admiral James Stravidis in an article (Global Fish Wars) in which he mentions that illegal fishing may cause a global war and Congress has asked the Navy to help fight illegal fishing.
Another recently developed factor is the formation of the Saudi-led Islamic bloc to fight terrorism. The Islamic Military Counter Terrorism coalition (IMTcT) is an intergovernmental alliance meant to counter terrorist activities in the Muslim world, specifically military action against ISIL/ISIS. The alliance has a joint operations center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. On 6 January 2017, Pakistan ‘s former Chief of Army Staff, General (Retd) Raheel Sharif was named the IMa’s first commander-in chief. Pakistan can leverage this stature by asking for naval logistic support from countries that are part of this alliance. For instance, UAE is utilizing Socotra Island as its naval logistic station and Pakistan can do the same. Only aggressive and effective diplomacy along with strong resolve from our political and military establishment is required.
I do not know if anyone from our hierarchy has discussed this with friendly countries but if such naval logistic agreements are being arranged, the Pakistan navy could use islands in the Arabian Sea such as Socotra and its adjacent smaller Islands like Darsah, Kilmia and Samhah, Red Sea Islands under Saudi control, Gulf Oman Islands like Almassirah, Khuriya Muriya Islands like alQibliah, Alhallaniyah and Alsawda, Bosas in Somalia and port Sudan in the Red Sea. We can also aggressively leverage our friendship with Turkey that has plans to establish military bases in Somalia and Qatar and also in some other regional countries. We can get logistic support from those Turkish military stations in order to fulfill our Sea control vision at extended EEZ. Turkey has also great deal of influence in the Mediterranean Sea and Pakistan should get involved in that part of the world for supporting joint operations.
Emphasizing and repeating my words again, a country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power, and without a strong navy, Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations. Sea power is not simply about what it takes to use the sea; it is also the capacity to influence the behavior of other people or things by what one does at or from the sea. Leveraging from sea power requires two components: the means to use the sea as it desires, and freedom of doing things that are considered necessary to influence the actions of people on land. The classic constituents of sea power have not changed despite the rapid progression of technology and, when addressed, would eventually make Pakistan not only a naval power but a maritime power if naval role would be clarified and enough resources would be allocated.
The area of Pakistan’s dominion of interest is going through rapid navigational transformation and we see the presence of a large number of world navies in Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Dealing with such massive traffic adjacent to our extended EEZ in addition to CPEC related interests, utmost attention and best planning is required for keeping close eyes on adversaries’ ambitions and activities. Also, we observe gradual built up of Iranian and Saudi Navies in North Arabian Sea that could result in an additional pain point for Pakistan as far as diplomacy is concerned. All said challenges along with new emerging Indian Coast Guard threat require the Pakistan navy to adopt multi-pronged approach for an immediate naval size increase by doubling the submarines and destroyers, acquiring couple of helicopter carriers, dedicated airborne early warning aircrafts, developing capability to use the Sea commercially in peace and command/control in war times, strengthening naval cooperation with Chinse and regional friendly navies and developing the navy’s new role in combined operations with the army. In modern naval warfare, the combined and enlarged role of long range fighter aircrafts with refueling capability and nuclear submarines could be a decisive factor for the sustainability of the operations in near and distant seas. Pakistan must move quickly in next 3 to 4 years for meeting these challenges and evolve ambitious political and naval leadership for the development of sea power that could plan way in advance to transform the Pakistan Navy into a blue water navy in the near or distant future. Lastly, Pakistan has to diversify its coastal line ports for commercial and war management purposes. In this regard, Khor Kalmat lagoon is considered as the favorable location from strategic standpoint. The addition of another naval base at Pakistan’s 1100 km long coastal line will help load management and diversification of the maritime resources for commercial and strategic purposes.
From my point of view, some areas to focus on are listed below in order to speed up the rise of Pakistan Naval power that could safe guard huge EEZ and CPEC related trade and economic activities across the territorial water and maritime dominion of interest.
1. Double the Naval budget from current level.
2. Double the size of submarines and destroyers gradually in next3 to 4 years.
3. Develop strategy for employing helicopter carriers which seem to be feasible instead of acquiring traditional carrier with fighter jets. This will help boosting operational capabilities. A Heli carrier can be developed at our naval shipyard.
4. Acquire nuclear subs for maintaining longer operational sustainability
5. Modernization of shipyards and destroyers manufacturing via
joint ventures
6. Effective local repair capabilities in-house for maritime inventory
7. Modernization of second strike capability utilizing Sub marines.
8. Massive improvement in naval aviation for supporting longer maritime operations
9. Agreements with friendly nations for using strategic islands in the Arabian Sea
10. Pakistan navy should adopt long term strategy to take shape as a powerful standing navy during next decade, and must effort to become a regular establishment. The maritime challenges in next coming years emphasize that Pakistani defence establishment acknowledge greater naval role for protecting long term strategic and economic interests
of Pakistan.
