In Jan 2005, almost 13 years ago, my first book published under the title “Pakistan’s defence and nuclear doctrine” was launched by Mohammad Ijaz ul Haq (then federal minister for religious affairs) and Major General (Retd) Rahat Latif. The compilation of such book during that critical period was considered to be the need of time for morale boosting since US led war in Afghanistan was in full swing. Many experts, who provided me feedback about the doctrine validity, were convinced that a second volume of this book must be published to cover the latest and recent strategic updates as time passes. The original doctrine was basically an introduction to the readers regarding Pakistan’s counter balance efforts against Indian hegemony along with a long history of wars. It dealt with how India became a nuclear power and as a result, Pakistan was forced to follow suit. The doctrine was mainly India-specific, however, the role of Israel, Iran, Afghanistan and China were specially discussed. The compilation of the second volume of the said book is in progress and I thought it necessary to lay out an over all picture of the previously said defence and nuclear doctrine along with some recent updates.
Pakistan’s defence doctrine primarily revolves around the Indian threat that is very obvious due to India’s size and ambitions towards its neighbors. Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine as stated by previous government officials, that Pakistan does not want a conflict with India but if it comes to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, Pakistan would “respond with full might.” These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons. Similar remarks were made by former Pakistani President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in the 1990s when rumors spread around the world about a possible nuclear conflict between two rival nations. It is evident that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is primarily based upon an Indian immediate threat but should not be limited to Indian factor only. India being a close neighbor is well aware of consequences that will result in case of any hard conflict with Pakistan and it also knows what might happen to its growing economy.
Officially, Pakistan has announced that any adventure against its nuclear facilities will be considered as an attack on Pakistan itself and Pakistan will be free to respond with full might. This is the official statement that usually comes from time to time to announced its firm commitment to the world on how serious Pakistan is about its nuclear program and its security. The security of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities is the most important and top priority of all governments.
India Specific Doctrine
The first obvious principle of our doctrine is regarding India’s superiority in conventional arms and manpower that would have to be tackled by nuclear weapons. During any future Indo-Pak armed conflict, if India’s numerical superiority in men and conventional arms would likely to exert pressure beyond limitations and In such deteriorating situation when a break up of Pakistan’s defence lines is possible, or has already breached the main defence line causing a major disaster to the defenses, which cannot be restored by conventional means, the government would be left with no other option except to use Nuclear Weapons to stabilize the situation. The political will to use nuclear weapons is essential to prevent a conventional armed conflict, which could later on escalate into a nuclear war.
Pakistan’s defence and nuclear doctrine would therefore essentially revolve around the first-strike option. In other words Pakistan will use nuclear weapons if attacked by India, even if the attack is with conventional weapons. This would entail a stage-by-stage approach in which the nuclear threat is increased at each step to prevent India or any other country from attack. Let us discuss what those step-by-step measures might be in case of possible conflict.
The first step might be an open warning to the other side about not crossing the red line that will escalate tension. If this open warning does not seem to be working, the next step might be to send a private or secret message and mentioning of possible consequences. It is not necessary for nuclear nations to start the conflict immediately followed by use of nuclear weapons. If such warning and open dialogues do not seem to be working, then next action to prevent enemy from attack is to conduct a nuclear explosion on Pakistani soil (as done in May 1998) to show its capability and power. It might be hoped that these steps would be enough to prevent any invasion although it is not a guarantee that the enemy will not start any aggression. The ongoing situation in Kashmir and interior problems in India might force her to think about a possible conflict. It is very important to mention that for Pakistan conventional war is not an option. So it is evident from frequent statements issued by Pakistani officials that any conventional war will overwhelmingly be converted into unconventional war.
All options mentioned so far are to prevent the enemy from possible aggression and the last option in this list is to get ready for conducting a thermonuclear bomb explosion that is many times more destructive than a nuclear bomb. We have seen examples in history how a thermonuclear bomb was tested to show power and destruction that could be caused. The fury and destruction associated with a thermonuclear explosion would definitely help defuse the escalated situation and disrupt enemy plans.
In case all options of showing power fail and the enemy is determined to exercise limited war option, the next step would be to use few tactical nuclear weapons against Indian or enemy attacking forces. The utmost attempt must be done to use nuclear weapons away from Pakistani soil depending upon the situation, along with a nuclear attack at enemy military targets on her soil on advancing forces. In this way, there will be minimum damage to the thickly populated cities and civilian lives. Some weapon systems would be in reserve for the counter-attack role. These weapons would be safe from Indian/enemy attack as some would be airborne while the ground based weapons being mobile could be moved around the country. The first strike option should be used very effectively and with highest degree of accuracy. This goal can be achieved with trustful and calibrated delivery system; Pakistan has a very effective delivery system capable of hitting targets within satisfactory limits.
With the passage of time, a greater degree of advancement will certainly be introduced and developed in Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine of the first-use of nuclear weapons, to provide the more options in the use of nuclear weapons. This would also avoid unessential collateral damage to cities and other population centers in both countries. The objective would be to employ nuclear weapons if attacked but cause minimum civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. It must be understood that a nuclear device is not just another weapon with increased firepower, it is in fact a weapon of mass destruction and a totally new system that requires new rules of command, control, communications, deployment and engagement. It is obvious that the control of this devastating weapon must rest firmly in the hands of the highest political authority in the country, the Prime Minister. It is important that the Prime Minister’s decision would be based on earlier discussions in the Federal Cabinet about the dangers of a possible conflict. The situation would also have been discussed in the Defence Committee of the Cabinet which is responsible for defense and security of the country and national security committee.
India has shown greater degree of reliance promoting its Cold Start Doctrine which is mainly developed against Pakistan in case of a possible war. The Cold Start Doctrine is intended to allow India’s conventional forces perform holding attacks in order to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict and It involves various branches of India’s military (Army, Navy and Air force) conducting offensive operations as part of unified battle groups. To elaborate, the greater objective of this Cold Start Doctrine is to establish the capacity to launch a retaliatory conventional strike against Pakistan that would inflict significant harm on the Pakistan Army before the international community could intervene, and at the same time, pursue narrow enough aims to deny Islamabad a justification to escalate the clash to the nuclear level. This doctrine heavily depends upon quick and speedy mobilization, within 48 hours along with enormous firepower.
Responding to Indian Cold Start strategy, Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons (smaller in size) and can be fired through short range missiles and even with other delivery equipments. This tactical capability is in addition to the air borne nuclear capability employed by Pakistan air force for such scenario.
The Pakistan military tested “the Nasr, a nuclear-capable missile” from the family of Hatf-IX missiles with a purported range of 60 km, high accuracy and a shoot-and-scoot delivery system. In this way, Indian plans to conduct a surprise and fast mobilized attack in a limited war scenario, has been tackled by the Pakistan Army. But Pakistan must keep a close eye on Cold Start since it is still in the development and modification phases and a corresponding matching response should be considered if any sort of advancement is seen for re-employing this strategy. The one critical factor Pakistan must watch is the Fourth and Fifth generation warfare tactics employed by India against Pakistan with help from Afghan secret service, NDS and some other notorious agencies. The combination of Fourth/Fifth Generation warfare with Cold Start Doctrine is the matter of concern and must be carefully watched. Probably this is the reason why Indian Minister Subramanian Swami has indicated Indian intentions for a war with Pakistan by April May 2018. Although Pakistan has taken steps to counter remaining terror elements through operations Rad ul Fasad and Zarb e Azb, it is equally important to sort out those hidden proxies amongst our society that can facilitate the enemy’s fourth /fifth generation war tactics. These facilitators can be in media, civil society and even some members of political parties.
Pakistan has also demonstrated second strike capability by launching a nuclear capable missile from a submarine. This is a clear indication to enemies that in a worst case scenario, Pakistan still has the choice and capability for a full scale retaliatory nuclear response. In any nuclear conflict, it is obvious that first strike option would likely eliminate the adversary completely and the only chance to retaliate is through second strike option. Moreover, retaliatory response could be further supported by the air force since some weapon systems could be air borne most of the time during the conflict. So it is evident from the above discussion regarding Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine that the effective coordination amongst Army, Navy and air force along with sharing weapons system responsibility would provide more flexibility to engage the adversary in a war situation.
Although the highest political figure, The Prime Minister, will decide to employ the nuclear option but it must be decided when and to whom would the authority to use nuclear weapons be delegated in a war situation. Pakistan has established an effective command and control system to deploy nuclear weapons in a war situation and the formation of nuclear strategic forces is a very important step in this regard. These forces will be responsible to utilize all means to store, deploy and use of nuclear weapons under a crisis situation. The time might come under war situation when delegation and authority would be spread to the local commanders in the field under specified circumstances depending on the course and direction in which the battle unfolds.
Fast and secure communications is another essential factor in a nuclear environment. Effective communications from the Prime Minister and his security team through the shortest chain of command to the actual launch area of the nuclear weapon must be secure and prevented from any damage at all times. It is also to be kept in mind under nuclear war crisis that all top commanding authorities, including the Prime minister and his cabinet and military leadership will remain underground to maintain the chain of command. But rules must be set if the top leadership is eliminated due to sudden enemy attack to ensure there is existence of leadership to control the war. Intelligence gathering would be vital and critical in a nuclear war environment as such it would be essential to have accurate, up to date and timely information about a potential enemy’s additional troop, aircraft and ship deployments and likely intentions. The enemy’s preparations for a nuclear first strike must be known at the earliest stage of the conflict.
For the daily conduct of the war it may be appropriate to have a committee under the highest political figure, important ministers accompanied by Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of Defence. The role of Defence Secretary and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff would be to coordinate activities of the three defense forces. The role of Army’s Air Defense command has a critical part in the nuclear war scenario as it would be responsible to locate, identify and destroy incoming enemy missiles and to launch a retaliatory attack with nuclear weapons.
The current political and geographical situation in the South Asian region is very unstable and hostile due to the presence of allied forces as the result of recent US-Afghan war. The war has prolonged more than it was initially thought and is now entering in its 17th year. So it is very important to discuss a war scenario imposed by either Indo-Israeli alliance or any other nation. As discussed earlier an offensive military policy is the prime factor in Pakistan’s defence doctrine so that any future imposed war would be fought at enemy grounds, not at Pakistani mainland.
Suppose a certain situation is developing in the region around Pakistan that might end up as a military conflict, such as gathering of enemy forces in neighboring countries, heavy naval presence in the Arabian Sea, etc. Also suppose that enemy is technologically much more advanced so it would be a ‘do or die‘ situation for Pakistan. What could be done? This is the question that may be in everyone’s mind and must be answered.
If the war seems inevitable and cannot be avoided, the best practice would be to start the war at first resort instead of waiting for the enemy to strike, keeping in mind flanks should have been activated much before. All important enemy installations in the nearby regions should be destroyed with a quick and powerful air strike. Noting the above mentioned technological gap, first strike option will always be more advantageous for boosting morale and Pakistan’s defence doctrine is very clear in this regard. Pakistan has an advantage that it is equipped with tactical weapons with a trustable delivery system. The nuclear missile fired from land or from naval ships will reach their definite targets might be in Pakistan’s favor. Naval superiority of any other nation will be less effective comparatively in the presence of nuclear missiles. A nuclear missile exploded in the sea would create an enormous destruction that will eliminate any living things. Pakistan‘s missiles range from 300 km to 3500 km, that pretty much cover the whole of India, a considerable part of Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. If fired from ships, the range could be easily stretched to the Mediterranean Sea. Having said that, it is believed that Pakistan has a lot of free options that it might use under any superior potential threat impose either from East or West.
Whatever has been said so far is basically India-specific doctrine due to reasons of unresolved issues and hatred against Muslims developed during centuries of Muslim rule over India. Pakistani officials during past few decades have been issuing statements about an offensive military strategy rather than defensive. Ultimately, it means that future wars will not be allowed to be fought on Pakistani soil or mainland. This is very important decision adopted during the Afghan war when USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979. consequently USSR invasion was halted right there in Afghanistan.
Pakistan being a powerful nuclear nation must exercise a show of muscle for getting certain military and diplomatic benefits. The humble and down to earth attitude does not always work well with a nuclear armed nation, in fact this is considered as weakness or lack of determination or resolve. The only thing remaining is effective diplomacy along with determined political and military leadership. This is the area that must be tackled quickly to improve the nation’s image.
There are some additional factors that are pegged with our national security in addition to the India specific doctrine. These factors must be included unofficially as the part of our doctrine.
The Israel Factor
Israel is the second country in the world after Pakistan that was created purely for religious purposes, although this creation was not a legal one but a forced occupation. Pakistan has not recognized Israel due to its occupation of lands that belongs to the Palestinians and also in the context of Arab-Israel relations. Pakistan has helped Arabs in every aspect, whether it is United Nations related matters or help in times of stress and war. Israel has established relations with Pakistan’s arch rival India to fulfill any negative intentions regarding Pakistan’s nuclear program. Since the Israel factor will not go away, it is needed to be considered as a factor in Pakistan’s defence doctrine. Pakistan provided military and technical assistance to Arab countries including Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to fill the vast gap between them and Israel. Pakistan Air Force pilots started flying Syrian MIGS to protect Syrian air space from Israel and were often involved in the combat situation with Israeli war planes, at times shooting down their planes. Pakistan also established military structure for Arab states and started providing training and other material support so that Arabs would be able to defend themselves. This major role of Pakistan in the Arab-Israel war and its presence in the region propelled Israel to develop relations with Pakistan’s rival, India. After Pakistan launched its nuclear program, Israel considered it as a major potential threat for its security even though Pakistan is not close to Israel. Due to the powerful nuclear stature of Pakistan, Israel made a natural alliance with India. On some occasions this Indo-Israel alliance has tried to launch sudden attacks on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities but failed due to early intelligence and better combat preparations of Pakistan Air Force. Israel is considered as a silent and indirect enemy towards Pakistan due to previously mentioned regional and religious reasons.
The Indo-Israeli alliance against Pakistan gave a new dimension to Pakistan’s defence doctrine during past few decades. Pakistan ought to establish better intelligence network more aggressively in the countries around Israel so that any suspicious movement could be noticed on Mediterranean side, Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea. This intelligence siege of Israel should be the initial part of Pakistan’s defence doctrine, to discover any Indo-Israeli plan against Pakistan’s security. Practically, Israel is not capable of damaging Pakistan by itself that is why it has entered into an alliance with India.
The Iran Factor
Iran is the southwestern neighbor of Pakistan, an oil rich nation and an Islamic country that has deep cultural and religious roots with Pakistan. This is a fairly large country having around 1000 km long border with Pakistan. In addition, Iran has borders with Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Central Asian states, Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Being next door neighbor with such a long land border with Pakistan, it is of utmost importance for Pakistan to maintain friendly and close relations with Iran under any circumstances.
Iran, with its future nuclear capability may become a challenge for NATO forces and Israel. Iran has vast land consisting of hard terrain and mountainous regions. Due to its physical and strategic importance, Iran will continue to be a key player in regional politics. In the context of an unstable situation in Afghanistan an economically stable and militarily strong Iran is important for the defence of Pakistan due to reasons of being its next door neighbor and also because Pakistan cannot afford to have unpredictable situation in its neighbors especially if western nations try to create chaos in Iran. Pakistan should support a stable Iran to protect the 1000 km long border so it is very important for Pakistan to keep a close eye on this side of the border with Iran for achieving long term stability.
Pakistan must engage Iran in CPEC and make utmost effort to connect Chahbahar with CPEC road links hence provide easy access to Iran for trade with China. If this materializes, this is the best option for Iran and Pakistan to further strengthen economic ties. Since Russia and China are close allies now and similarly Iran has close ties with Russia, it is being realized that Pakistan-Iran-China paradigm through SCO and ECO is the need of the time for regional economic development. Pakistan should also consider fencing the Iranian border to avoid illegal border crossings and other espionage activities e.g. RAW’s spy Kulbhushan being apprehended with Iranian visa. The recent Iran visit of General Qamar Bajwa to Iran is a right step in the right direction because of which it appears that many issues were resolved with hopes for better relations ahead. In short, enormous economic potential can be explored if relation between Pakistan and Iran are pleasant.
The Afghanistan Factor
Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighbors with predominant Muslim population along with joint historic cultural linkages; however, relations between them were have never been pleasant since day one. Shortly after Pakistan gained independence in 1947, Afghanistan crafted a two-fold strategy to destabilize the frontier regions of Pakistan, in an attempt to take advantage of Pakistan’s post-independence instability. It aligned itself with Pakistan’s rival, India, and also the USSR, which later invaded Afghanistan in 1979.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 took a new turn in Pakistan’s traditional policy towards Afghanistan when it was realized that any danger to Afghanistan’s security from a hostile nation would be equally dangerous for Pakistan. The importance of Afghanistan emerged more sharply when Kabul established relations with India during 1992 period. The Pakistan Embassy in Kabul was attacked and damaged by supporters of the Northern Alliance blaming Pakistan for the civil war. This compelled Pakistani policy makers to support a different factor to eliminate any hostile regime from Kabul. Indian intelligence RAW was always very active in Afghanistan engaging Pakistan from East and West. In any situation, Pakistan cannot afford to have a hostile regime in Kabul due to the vast border with Afghanistan and its strategic importance.
The China Factor
China is a trusted friend of Pakistan, located at the north side having around 600 km long border with Pakistan. Since the 1949 Chinese revolution, both countries came closer and started various strategic and economical projects like Silk Road, formation of heavy industries and defence related programs. The Silk Road that is an excellent example of cooperation between them starts from Hawalian and passes thru Korakuram range to Khunjrab then entering China. This land route opened a vast scope for future economic and strategic relations.
The formation of heavy industries Taxila and PAC Kamra were major accomplishments achieved during 1960s and 1970s, these were considered to be the backbone of Pakistan. Also Pakistan Air Force is using Chinese fighters and has currently developed a state of the art fighter aircraft, the JF-17 with the help of China. This joint venture is a continuation of a long and historical cooperation that started from 1950s to help each other explore different avenues of technological challenges.
Pakistan offers the shortest route for China to get access to the oil rich Middle East region through Karachi and Gwadar. While the Silk Road proved to be a milestone for future trade plans, that will be further connected to Gwadar through a new series of highways (CPEC) still under construction. The construction of Gwadar port started a few years back, the contract was given to China who would be totally responsible for developing infrastructure in this port to achieve certain economic and strategic goals. Having said this, China is physically present in south Asian region to watch interest of both countries under current world political situation. China is the largest country in the world by population, having fairly vast geographical area just a bit larger than United States. The economical and technological boom in China has sown seeds of concern in the western world that fear China might be a future giant challenging western interests in the near future.
It was because of this fear that the idea of economic and political siege of China came into play after collapse of the Soviet Union. China is the only country in the world where socialism is at its peak and is successful both in government and in social sector, although a lot of changes have been made to incorporate socialism with new realities of the modern world. The idea of promoting India as a parallel force in the region is the first step towards possible siege of China in the future. The presence of allied forces in the neighbouring countries like Japan, Korea, Philippines and Afghanistan also indicate that China has become a major concern for western policy makers.
China carefully watches all these developments avoiding all possible conflicts. Relations between Pakistan and China have taken on more meaning under the present global political scenario, especially due to the CPEC flag ship project under OBOR vision. Although both countries have developed economic relations with the west, they are very much aware of the importance of their strategic partnership. China is very important for the defense of Pakistan due to strong military relations and a safe supply route during war time.
