Pakistan’s strategic location and its predominant critical and geographical proximity have made it a natural attraction for regional and global players in the current changing political paradigm.
Being located in the globe adjacent to the most important and busy maritime trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandab, its further connection with the Suez Canal and Gulf of Aqaba made it that much more visible for global and regional ambitious Navies. The recent expansion of the Chinese navy to combat maritime challenges and protect seaward commerce is one of the prime examples. Also, the Indian navy is expanding in multidimensions from general naval hardware to advancement of its coast guards. China has recently established a naval base in Djibouti in Bab el Mandab for controlling/monitoring Chinese trade interests through this choke point. The US already has established a base in that country and now with a Chinese naval base, these two major power players are sitting next to each other. In addition, since this is a busy trade route, every trading nation would find it important to safeguard its oil supply routes without any threat or interruption.
There are many challenges in this domain, particularly maritime piracy that is a problem near Somalian waters and Gulf of Aden, global terrorism as well as political hegemoniuos ambitions.
Adding new economic and strategic dimensions to the above-mentioned challenges, the strengthening ties between Pakistan and China through CPEC is also another dimension because China wants to safeguard its oil supply from Middle East that was passing through strait of Malacca which is mainly under US influence and can come under naval blockade in case of any high-level tensions between US and China. The geo-political importance of CPEC is a critical factor for future Chinese engagement with maritime security in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean along with Pakistan navy.
The significance of the sea for Pakistan, as is the case with most countries, is that more than 95% of Pakistan’s trade is sea borne and major requirement of its oil imports comes from the Gulf. Continuous flow of energy resources through the Strait of Hormuz is essential for sustenance of the economy.
Many regional nations also continue to spend heavily on military and navy resulting in massive arms buildup on land and at sea around Pakistan’s maritime dominion of interest. Also, we observe gradual build up of Iranian and Saudi Navies in north Arabian Sea due to their increased territorial interests, traditional conflicts and ambitions for controlling maritime passages. The ongoing war in Yemen also proved both Saudis and Iranians to have a much stronger presence on both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandab.
Saudi Arabia is in a unique advantageous position as compared to the Iranians because its eastern borders on Persian/ Arabian Gulf and western borders are on the Red Sea. Hence the Saudis have access to two choke points (Bab El Mandab and Suez Canal) that are located at Red Sea and Strait of Hurmuz at Persian Arabian Gulf. The Iranians are trying to match this by controlling Yemen with help from Houthi rebels.
In addition to the above challenges and as I have discussed in detail previously that Pakistan has been blessed by enormous sea resources that could be efficiently utilized for nation’s economic well-being and prosperity. Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is spread over 240, 000 Sq. Km with continental shelf extending a further 50, 000 Sq. km. The total area under Pakistan’s influence is 290,000 Sq.km which is considered to be bigger than KPK and Sindh provinces. The area is rich in fishery, possibly hydrocarbons and seabed resources and Pakistan must leverage the EEZ for socio economic development. It is therefore, in Pakistan’s interest to see that the environment at sea is secure and stable to pursue its legitimate interests unimpeded. For this purpose, it is critical that Pakistan be able to handle the challenges it may face defending our exclusive economic zone. Right now, for time being, the strategy seems to be defensive. We may adopt multi-pronged strategy defending our EEZ that could be strategically defensive and tactically offensive. When we remain within our EEZ, we are in our own waters so it is strategically defensive in line with our current foreign policy. The threat has to be stopped well before it reaches our shores. The standoff weapon range available gives the advantage of firing weapons while remaining far away from the coast.
Another argument for defensive approach is that since we are patrolling within our EEZ and not stopping commercial traffic of other countries, but the moment there is some naval movement in our EEZ or close to it, we may tactically neutralize it being tactically offensive. In addition, there are certain factors that are currently posing threat alongwith possible emergence of potential challenges, these factors are mentioned below in greater detail.
India Factor
India has a 7,516-km coastline, with 1,382 islands and an extensive Exclusive Economic Zone of 2.01 million sq. km which will further extend up to almost 3 million sq. km after delimitation of the Continental Shelf. Indian government is trying to make the Indian Coast Guard a 175-ship and 110-aircraft force by 2022 to plug operational gaps and strengthen its capabilities to safeguard coastal security, island territories, offshore assets and marine environment as well as undertake anti-piracy, anti-smuggling, oil-spill and pollution-control operations. A huge investment has been planned and allocated for this purpose.
One of the key objectives of this ICG expansion is to enhance its role and responsibilities. Rather than concentrating on its core responsibilities of coastal defence, it is now trying to counter and check Pakistan Navy on its own strength thereby relieving the Indian Navy to maintain its presence/ dominance in South Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and other operational activities. Since India is openly criticizing CPEC project and funding terrorists in Balochistan and Pakistan’s coastal areas to disrupt the project, it is of utmost importance that for Pakistan naval and political leadership plan aggressively how to match/counter this ICG expansion one way or another. An effective match could be attained with acceptable hardware parity that could be utilised to maintain minimum EEZ defence.
The reason for Indian aggressive approach towards naval advancement along with extensive ICG force development is fact that India is seeking for itself a regional/global role and has identified the need of a powerful naval force that could maneuver globally for meeting her global ambitions. Moreover, the other objective of this Indian naval hegemony mindset is to manage the Chinese People’s Liberation Navy in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea and aggressive approach towards Pakistan for imposing a possible naval blockade in times of war.
Having said all this, one must keep Indian geography in mind, is it possible for the Indians to fully monitor and safeguard their territory with such a huge and complicated coastal line? It is certain that Indian Navy will have tremendous challenges to safe guard this coastal line completely and effectively. In any war time situation, Indian Navy will not be able to defend the entire length of its coastal line due to its complicated geography and stretch. There are many mini-straits, creeks, waterways, uninhabited lands, and thick forests along the Indian coast line that could be a strong strategic advantage for rival forces in case of a full scale naval conflict.
Capability Gap
In Pakistan’s 290,000 Sq. Km area of maritime influence, sea food is a precious resource where our fish production in the marine sector, extending up to 35 nautical miles from the coast, is nearly 70 percent while the remaining 30 percent is obtained from inland sector. There is no reliable data on the quantum of fish resource beyond 35 nautical miles limit in the EEZ which is routinely transgressed by fishing trawlers from other countries. Pakistan is losing precious economic opportunities due to the absence of reliable fishery data across its EEZ and extended shelf. The trespassers who are equipped with latest technology for fish processing are taking huge benefit because of to this capability gap.
These trespasses are from various countries in the region and beyond where the fishing industry is well modernized and established. Pakistan’s Maritime Security Agency (MSA) frequently apprehends Indian fishermen who intrude into Pakistani waters but its reach and capacity against bigger offenders operating further south of the coast is severely constrained. MSA does not have sufficient air surveillance assets to monitor the activities in EEZ, nor does it have enough surface vessel resources to effectively police the area once intruders have been reported. The Ministry of Shipping and Ports along with the Ministry of Defence and Interior must develop an aggressive plan to tackle such challenges.
Maritime Challenges
With the global security landscape having undergone significant transformation following the tragic events of 9/11 and further followed by consistent wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan, highly complex and multifaceted challenges have evolved such as extremism that has engulfed many nation states causing huge socio-economic impact. The region of our interest (Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea) has been in the midst of this strategic transformation in global security paradigm and remains afflicted by many active high intensity conflicts in the region and is generally affected indirectly by other conflicts in the world. Many regional nations also continue to spend heavily on their military, resulting in massive arms buildup on land and sea.
Having mentioned trespassers in our EEZ for illegal fishing, there are additional challenges within Pakistan’s EEZ that could pose threat to our national security. These threats could emerge from inter-state territorial disputes, political instability, piracy, dumping of toxic waste, human smuggling, drugs/arms smuggling and transnational crimes, including maritime terrorism such as the blowing up of a fishing boat by Indian Coast Guard in the past. It will be challenging for the Pakistan Navy to dominate within EEZ and extended continental shelf with its existing naval inventory keeping in mind that CPEC maritime interests and EEZ protection and exploration dictate clear guidelines for the Pakistan Navy to be able to dominate both home and distant waters, specifically our EEZ.
Understanding these multifaceted challenges, Pakistan Navy has taken additional steps over the past few years and has been a consistent security contributor in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea region. Being a lead nation, Pakistan’s maritime forces are actively arranging and participating with other navies in combating various challenges like narcotics trade, human smuggling, gun running, terrorism and piracy at the high seas. Being more specific, the Pakistan Navy has actively participated and played a lead role not only in organizing joint exercises like the AMAN series, but also in the coalition Maritime Campaign Plan (CMCP) and commanded TF-150 four times to monitor and control drugs/arms smuggling in the north Arabian Sea and deter and deny the use of the sea to potential terrorists. Maritime piracy is common near the Gulf of Aden and Bab el Mandab due to Somali pirates and safeguarding trade coming from Europe and passing through the Red Sea is one of the key challenges for Pakistan Navy considering CPEC related commerce.
In order to meet the above challenges, one way may be to increase naval base stations to divert attention from main bases like Karachi and Gwadar that will further help diversification of the maritime resources and load management. In this case, Pakistan‘s naval leadership may consider adding additional naval base like Klamat Lagoon which seems to be a good fit for a strategic base selection. With this new base, Pakistan will be able to diversify its coastal line ports for commercial and war management purposes.
Global Ambitious Navigation
One of the challenges we may have is the ambitious navigation within our EEZ by different world superpowers. Their attitude is they don’t necessarily follow and respect UN assigned area of maritime influence of a country and often intentionally trespass the area of that country’s territorial maritime jurisdiction. For example, the United States has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which codified in a treaty the longstanding principle of freedom of navigation.
Recently some development has occurred that was mentioned by Retired Admiral James Stravidis in an article (Global Fish Wars) in which he mentions that illegal fishing may cause a global war and Congress has asked the Navy to help fight illegal fishing. Admiral Stravidis further mentions that “the decline in nearly half of global fish stocks in recent decades is a growing and existential threat to roughly 1 billion people around the world who rely on seafood as their primary source of protein. No other country is more concerned about the increasingly empty oceans than China, whose people eat twice as much fish as the global average. Beijing is also the world’s largest exporter of fish, with 14 million fishers in a sector producing billions of dollars a year. In order to keep its people fed and employed, the Chinese government provides hundreds of millions of dollars a year in subsidies to its distant-water fishing fleet. And in the South China Sea, it is common for its ships to receive Chinese Coast Guard escorts when illegally entering other countries’ fishing waters. As such, the Chinese government is directly enabling and militarizing the worldwide robbing of ocean resources.”
This direct stance about Chinese fish industry and Congress action asking US Navy to fight illegal fishing may be another area of concern and challenge for the Pakistan Navy to secure our sea resources and further protect any potential threat within our EEZ and extended continental shelf. Without a powerful presence of the Pakistan Navy, international trespassing will become a norm and any measures to secure our EEZ will become a tough challenge. Pakistan has claimed authority to regulate military activities in its EEZ especially where the use of explosives or weapons are involved. In addition, Pakistan also requires foreign aircraft to file flight plans before transiting over the EEZ and prior consent is required for foreign warships to conduct military exercises or maneuvers in Pakistan’s EEZ. These claims reflect Pakistan’s legitimate security interest in the EEZ but in order to be taken seriously by others, it should now be followed by robust military capacity (scaling up of Pakistan’s naval inventory and capability) as well as pursuit of objectives through psychological measures, media warfare and legal means to prevent adversaries from undermining Pakistan’s national maritime interests.
The economic challenges of Pakistan could be met with high degree of success if an aggressive execution plan is thought and laid for exploration of our sea bed resources. Such level of exploration could not be possible without the protection of EEZ/extended continental shelf, and for this, a powerful Pakistan navy is the need of the time.
