Since Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot change their geographical locations, it is in their long-term economic and security interest to bury the acrimonious past and forge ties. Whenever Islamabad and Kabul remain at loggerheads due to cross-border terrorism, India grabs the opportunity by further driving wedges between the two countries with the intent to maximise its hegemonic designs in the turbulent region.
The recent visit of Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and the DG ISI to Kabul yielded some positive results by allaying mounting Afghan reservations about sanctuaries of the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban across the border. More importantly, Pakistan’s military diplomacy seems to have largely removed the wall of mistrust between both countries as seen from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s announcement to visit Pakistan soon in the future.
One of the major breakthroughs of the ongoing Pak-Afghan bonhomie is the resumption of Afghan peace process under the stalled Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG). The QCG was established in December 2015 during the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad. The quartet was primarily designed to make joint efforts to facilitate direct talks between the National Unity Government of Afghanistan and the resurgent Taliban. The group had held five meetings before the process met a dead end after Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansur was killed in a drone strike by America in Balochistan in July 2016.
The QCG’s members — America, Afghanistan, China and Pakistan — lately held extensive discussions in Muscat, Oman, to bring the crisis-ridden Afghan government and the Taliban to the negotiating table to end the snowballing Afghan insurgency and bring lasting serenity there. These discussions were unlikely to produce any positive result on account of the failure of the quartet to include the Taliban in peace negotiations. As the regionally-funded Taliban controls almost 40 percent of Afghanistan, there will be no meaningful reconciliation if this group is excluded from negotiations.
Apart from the QCG forum, Pakistan and Afghanistan should hold discussions and extend security and economic cooperation for stability in the Pak-Afghan region. Despite sharing identical security objectives in the terror-infested region, both the countries have displayed a reluctance to harness the potential of bilateral economic and security cooperation. In today’s highly globalized world such obstructive behavior shown by Kabul and Islamabad does not serve the interests of poverty-stricken Pakistan and terror-ravaged Afghanistan.
It is axiomatic that the current Afghan government is mostly at the beck and call of India on account of New Delhi’s burgeoning financial and military assistance to Kabul. Under the influence of the supremacist Modi government, Afghanistan has continued to point an accusing finger at Pakistan for allegedly harboring some elements of the Afghan Taliban and the notorious Haqqani network. The Afghan leadership complains that considerable regional support has helped the Afghan Taliban to capture over 40 percent of Afghan territory. These Afghan accusations are not unfounded.
The changing security dynamics of the protracted Afghan war has compelled Kabul’s neighbours to militarily back up the Taliban. In the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to deploy additional forces in Afghanistan, these regional powers have augmented their financial and military assistance to the battle-hardened Taliban. Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan are alive to the fact that Washington is covertly involved in supporting Daesh in Afghanistan to create trouble inside these countries. Such a disruptive proxy war will further destabilise an already war-torn Afghanistan and complicate the open-ended Afghan peace talks.
Pakistan and America have recently ratcheted up their intelligence coordination against terrorists and militants along the Durand Line. Such cooperation has thus far resulted in the safe release of the American-Canadian couple with their children and the killing of APS mastermind Umar Mansoor and Umar Khalid Khorasani, chief of the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA).
Though American drones have killed some outlawed terrorists, Pakistan still has misgivings with Afghanistan with regard to Indian covert backing of Pakistani terrorists and insurgents ensconced in eastern Afghanistan. If Kabul wants Islamabad to prevent operatives of the Afghan Taliban from sneaking cross Pakistan’s tribal areas, it should not permit India to use Afghan soil for terrorist and insurgent activities inside Pakistan.
In today’s increasingly competitive and anarchic world, almost all countries have some sort of economic and security divergences with each other. But, this does not mean they should avoid forging relations in those areas where their core interests largely converge. For instance, despite having serious territorial and security issues, China and India have increased the amount of bilateral trade close to $ 100 billion. So, both Pakistan and Afghanistan should learn a lesson from the Sino-India economic ties by cultivating robust economic relations.
Despite having a huge potential of mutual trade the two countries have long adopted obstructive economic policies towards each other. These policies have prevented them from reaping dividends from available economic opportunities.
Despite the increasing rapprochement between Islamabad and Kabul, the latter has unilaterally put off a meeting of the Afghanistan- Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority (APTTA). It is pertinent to mention that APTTA has been designed to help facilitate the timely execution of a revised and effectual transit treaty between the two countries. APTTA has failed to function well mainly due to inordinate delays created by Kabul. Such Afghan behavior has resulted in a substantial decrease in Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan over some years. When Pak-Afghan relations were on an upward curve in 2010, Pakistan’s export to Afghanistan had reached an all-time high of $ 2.4 billion. But, the ongoing failure of bilateral trade discussion has resulted in over 27 percent drop in these exports. Such a decline in bilateral trade does not bode well for the two neighbors’ future economic trade and security cooperation.
Given the porous nature of the Durand Line, Islamabad and Pakistan cannot permanently eliminate cross-border terrorism and militancy without the support of each other. The continual blame game and mudslinging has greatly helped the TTP, Daesh and the Afghan Taliban to target government institutions and public places of both the countries.
It is now an open secret that some hostile regional powers count on Pak-Afghan mistrust and hostility to arm, train and finance terrorists and insurgents in the region. Under the Doval doctrine, the Modi government has assigned a special task to RAW with regard to provide sanctuaries and launch pads to fleeing fugitives of the TTP and assorted Baloch insurgent groups in eastern Afghanistan.
Though America has recently killed some hardcore terrorists inside Afghanistan, Washington has still desisted from targeting the secret hotbeds of Pakistani terrorist and insurgent groups in Afghanistan. The underlying reason is that the Trump administration does not wish to anger India by bombing New Delhi’s anti-Pakistan proxies inside Afghanistan. Such a selective counter-terror operation by America provides vindication to some circles within Pakistan to harbor Afghan terrorists so as to be employed against India in the region.
Such a non-cooperative behavior by the current Afghan government bodes ill for the security of the Pak-Afghan region. On account of increased international pressure, Islamabad has mostly dismantled the organizational structures of all major terrorist and militant outfits from its once unlawful tribal areas. Now, most of these areas are under the firm control of the army. But, Pakistan cannot successfully conclude its costly counter-terrorism operations without serious Afghan support against the cross-border infiltration of terrorists.
The recent release of the American-Canadian couple shows Pakistan, Afghanistan and America need meaningful intelligence coordination to flush out militants and inhibit cross-border terrorism. Even though Pakistan has eliminated most of the hardened and regionally-funded terrorists and militants through the Operations Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, some battle-hardened militants of the TTP have fled to hide in some eastern districts of Afghanistan.
If Kabul stops India from sponsoring these terrorists and share timely intelligence with Pakistan, the two countries will be able to prevent cross-border penetrations of terrorists and insurgents. Meaningful cooperation on the security front will also help Kabul and Islamabad foster their economic ties.
