What all was left of the Middle East in the aftershock of the Arab Spring is now on fire with the onset of implosion within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The current crisis in the Gulf is the gravest that the GCC has faced in its nearly four decades of existence. Although Qatar’s relations with Saudi Arabia and some other Arab neighbours have not always been good, so far, the GCC had stood as a robust alliance. However, from the US-Israel grand strategic perspective, the GCC conglomerate has to be dismantled, sooner or later, before pushing the region into final phase of chaos. America is well on track in creating an Israel pliant Middle East, with active participation of its regional allies (read stooges). The impulsive decision by Saudi Arabia and its allies to boycott Qatar was in the offing for some time. President Donald Trump’s erratic understanding of the Middle East and his incoherent remarks during the Arab-Muslim-US summit hastened the happening. It wasn’t out of naivety that while addressing the summit, Trump replaced Islam with Shia and Sunni religions and clubbed these two with Christians and Jews. And none out of the Muslim speakers had the courage of pointing out that Shia and Sunni are two streams of Islam, to some extent similar to Catholic and Protestant sub-divisions of Christianity.
During the Riyadh summit, Trump had specifically asked the government of Saudi Arabia to take stern action against Qatar. Indecent haste is evident from the fact that even the US Secretary of State in unable to keep pace with Trump. The Muslim world has not learnt any lesson from the wars and crises in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran; instead of closing fronts, it is commissioning new quick-sands in a merry go lucky tempo and its leadership is too willing to act as pawns.
Qatar has indicated that it was willing to address concerns of the countries that ended diplomatic relations with it. Kuwait’s Emir, Sheikh Sabah al Ahmad al Jaber Al Sabah has vowed to continue his efforts to resolve the crisis. Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani called for “dialogue based on clear foundations”. “Qatar is willing to sit and negotiate about whatever is related to Gulf security,” he said in Paris. For now, the Americans could have also pushed the things only this far, and efforts are afoot for some sort of crisis stabilization.
Pakistan has maintained good diplomatic ties with both Qatar and Saudi Arabia. And it feels that it is important to resolve this issue to arrest the likelihood of a snowballing strife between the Muslim World. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has expressed hope for a swift resolution to the crisis and he, accompanied by the Army Chief has visited Saudi Arabia for diffusing the tensions. The Prime minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia was also part of a ‘goodwill gesture’ in the wake of speculations that Pakistan was sending troops to Qatar. In due course, Prime Minster is likely to carry forth his reconciliatory process, and he may visit Kuwait, Turkey and Qatar as well. Earlier, despite its very close ties with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan had in 2015 declined the kingdom’s request for sending its troops as part of a Saudi-led military campaign against Yemen’s Shiite rebels. Despite personal inclination of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to oblige Saudi Arabia, Parliament had held sway for maintaining neutrality.
According to the US State Department, progress has been made towards resolving the crisis between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors after senior US officials met leading players in the standoff. “I would characterize the mood and the approach to that as being one that is hopeful, that believes that the worst is behind us,” spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters. The US Secretary of State Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis have been working for de-escalation. Tillerson has held a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir. Earlier he had urged for easing the blockade. Appearing with Tillerson Jubeir insisted: “It’s not a blockade”. Defense Secretary Mattis and Qatari Minister of State for Defense Khalid al-Attiyah have also discussed the necessity of de-escalating tensions.
Publicly America too is treading the balancing path, avoiding to be perceived as a side-taker. For example, the State Department has refused to say whether it regards Qatar as a “sponsor of terror” or if the closure of the border and ban on Qatari flights in Saudi airspace amount to a “blockade.” “And let’s not get bogged down in all the details about who’s calling what (and) when. This is trending in a positive direction”, Nauert added. Last month America had entered in over US$ 100 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and now Qatar’s ministry of defense has stated on June 07 that it has also signed a deal to buy thirty six F-15 fighter jets from the United States for $12 billion; even though Trump had accused Qatar of being a “high-level” sponsor of terrorism. No matter what shape the Middle East takes in coming years, it is a win-win setting for the American military industrial complex.
Crisis threatens Qatar Airways transit business. Qatar Airways has called upon the UN’s aviation body to declare the Gulf boycott against the carrier “illegal” and a violation of a 1944 convention on international air transport. Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker has urged the United Nations’ civil aviation branch to intervene. If the sanctions prolong, Qatar’s food security will come under threat. What makes Qatar vulnerable is its heavy dependence on imports. Eighty per cent of food necessities, including all dairy products come from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia possesses the only land border with Qatar, hence, Qatar is completely dependent on Saudi Arabia for its imports through land routes. If that closes off, it will be a huge threat to the economy. Iran and Turkey have jumped-in to nullify the blockade by rushing the supplies.
The international community is watching the crisis with utmost concern. Foreign minister of Germany has cautioned that the crisis could develop into an “all-out-war”. German Chancellor Merkel has echoed similar support for lifting sanctions. Tillerson took the position that sanctions against Qatar be eased as it is causing unintended humanitarian consequences, and hindering military action in the region and affecting the fight against the Islamic State. It is, however, not clear whether the different positions taken by the US president and secretary of state are by design or reflect the state of confusion in the US policy. British foreign minister Boris Johnson has called for calm “I have urged all sides to refrain from any further escalation and to engage in mediation efforts.” While praising Qatar’s restraint during the crisis, he added: “In finding a resolution, I call on Qatar to take seriously their neighbours’ concerns.”
In its role as a leader of Muslim world Saudi Arabia is falling short on expectations. It should play the role of a big brother in the Middle East. It is disappointing that it perceives the ongoing spat into “us” versus “them.” And it is all about minor differences between the two brotherly states. Even if Qatar had violated international law and diplomatic code of conduct, such a knee-jerk harshness is uncalled for.
The Arab divide places Pakistan in a delicate and challenging situation. Historically, Pakistan has never taken sides in intra-Arab feuds and has rightly stayed out of the sludge. This is primarily an issue among the Gulf countries and Pakistan hopes that they should resolve the issue by themselves. However, if efforts of Kuwait and other Arab countries do not succeed, then other Muslim countries, including Pakistan and Turkey, are always there to facilitate.
