The Russia’s recent diplomatic overtures towards lingering Afghan peace and its secret rapprochement with the Taliban convincingly indicate that Russia wants to play a new Great Game in Afghanistan, especially against America. In this regard, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have fully capitalised on the fateful election of Donald Trump as American president to steadily outsmart Uncle Sam in insurgency-battered Afghanistan. Under President Xi Jinping, China is also poised to stand by this ‘Russian strategic adventure’ against American pre-eminence in the region. Taking ‘offensive realism’ into consideration, the unfolding situation in Afghanistan will probably further complicate the ‘security dilemma’ in South Asia as regional powers will resort to increasing their defence spending given the projected rivalry between the US and Russia.
This emerging new Great Game is likely to result in the formation of new security partnerships in South Asia, thus making the region a major centre of power politics for two to three decades. Given its vital geostrategic location, Pakistan should brace itself diplomatically and militarily because the anticipated Russo-American muscle-flexing and saber-rattling will have adverse impacts on the country’s security dynamics and economy.
Russian strategic incursion in Crimea and its successful bolstering of tottering Assad regime in Syria have ‘potentially’ emboldened Putin to smartly play his diplomatic cards with regard to the lingering Afghan serenity and stability. This Russian diplomatic manoeuvring is chiefly calculated to outweigh America’s diminishing military presence in Afghanistan. All this begs an important question: will the US peacefully permit Russia to increase its clout in Afghanistan in particular and in South Asia in general?
Russia began its new Great game in Afghanistan in 2007 when it established communication contacts with the Taliban. Najib Sharifi, a political analyst and a member of Afghanistan Analysis and Awareness, a Kabul-based think tank, writes in Aljazeera that: “In December 2016, Moscow disclosed its contacts with the Taliban, the group that is intent on toppling the Afghan government. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was sharing intelligence and cooperating with the Taliban to fight Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan.”
When a delegation from the Afghan Taliban’s Qatar office visited Iran in May 2015 for talks on countering Deash in Afghanistan, some Russian officials are said to have taken part in the deliberations. The Taliban have lately disclosed that Russia provided tactical support to them for the takeover of Kunduz in October 2015. According to Afghan security sources, Russia provides weapons and military equipment for Taliban fighters in Dasht-e-Archi, Imam Sahib, Qalai Zal and Kalbat districts of Kunduz province via Tajikistan.
Russia’s ongoing flirtations with the Taliban and its sudden interest in Afghan peace are designed to attain some economic and military objectives in the region.
Russian wants American Failure in Defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan
Resurgent Russia cherishes the grand dream of watching American failure in terms of defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moscow considers Afghanistan a suitable war theatre to take ravage on its cold war rival that trained and funded the mujahideen to defeat the Red Army in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
To maximise this objective, Russia is believed to have supplied arms to the Taliban for the takeover of the northern city of Kunduz. The governor of the strategic northeastern Kunduz province said Thursday the Taliban is asking Moscow for weapons and training to counter the expanding influence of IS groups in various parts of the country. Presumably, Russia will continue to maintain intelligence coordination with the Afghan Taliban and support the group with arms and ammunitions against American and Nato forces in Afghanistan.
Russian Dream of Accessing the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea
Russia not only wishes to dominate Afghanistan’s uranium resources, it also wants to spread its economic and military wings to the Persian Gulf via the Chabahar Port. Moscow has already connected itself with Afghanistan by means of road and rail links through the energy-rich Central Asia. India, the Russia’s long-standing regional partner, has built a 600-kilometer long highway linking Chabahar to Zahidan in Iran’s north. New Delhi has also completed the Delaram-Zaranj Highway in the Nimruz Province of Afghanistan, thus connecting the Delaram district in Afghanistan to the northern border of Iran.
Given the long-lasting friendship and convergent strategic interests between Iran and Russia in the region, Tehran is likely to permit Moscow to use its transport and port infrastructure to access the warm waters of the region. The Hasan Rouhani government allowed Russia to use an Iranian base to conduct airstrikes in Syria. Andrew Osborn writes in Reuters that: “long-range Russian Tupolev-22M3 bombers and Sukhoi-34 fighter bombers continue to use Iran’s Hamadan air base to strike a range of targets in Syria.” But, insecurity and insurgency in Afghanistan will create impediments to the Russian dream of reaching the Persian Gulf. Therefore, Russia has decided to reset its relations with the Taliban so as to rely on the insurgent group to safeguard its supply line through Afghanistan.
This projected route will supplement the 7,200 km long International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The INSTC is a multi-mode network of the ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia. The route primarily involves moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia via ship, rail and road. The objective of the corridor is to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali, etc.
Preventing Daesh Spillover Impacts over CARs
Russia is highly apprehensive of the spillover effects of Deash over the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Such Russian fear stems from the ominous existence of multitude terrorist, separatist and militant groups potentially operating from some Central Asian states. Since the emergence of Daesh in Iraq, the number of deadly terrorist attacks has increased in Russia; the militant group has claimed some of these attacks. To date, Daesh has claimed thirteen attacks in Russia: ten in the North Caucasus, two in Moscow Oblast, and a day after the St Petersburg attack – one in Astrakhan Oblast.
As per latest estimates, there are about 2,700 Russians and nearby 4,000 Central Asian fighters in the fold of the militant group. Thus far, America and the Afghan government have displayed the lack of seriousness to flush Deash out of terror- infested Afghanistan.
Russia is suspicious that America may have allowed Deash to overtly establish its foothold in Afghanistan so as to weaken the Taliban and create debilitating instability in the Russian backyard. It is important to note that Daesh considers Russia one of its major enemies because of the Kremlin’s continual airstrikes against the militant group in Syria. Therefore, the Kremlin has decided to partner with the Taliban in order to weaken Deash in Afghanistan so that it cannot pose a security threat to the Russian peripheries.
Russian Proclivity to Dominate CARs Resources
Russia has shown concerned over the supply of Central Asia gas to South Asia through the American-sponsored Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Russia is opposed to TAPI because it wants the CARs to remain dependent on it as the main purchaser of natural gas. Such reliance will help Russia play an overriding role in the security matters of the region. More importantly, Russia is a supplier of gas to Europe through pipelines that connect Central Asia to the European Union. If the CARs begin selling gas to South Asia countries, Russia will probably face daunting issues in terms of accumulating an adequate amount of gas and then supplying it to European countries. Khaled Ahmed pinned down in his opinion “Will Russia risk it?” that: “To prevent these pipelines from drying up, Russia opposes the Turkmen Afghanistan Pakistan India (TAPI) gas pipeline by aiding Pakistan to complete the Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan which is stuck because of American sanctions. “
Moreover, Moscow is fearful of American interference in Central Asian security domain because Washington has already shown its willingness to acquire Turkmenistan’s Mary airbase for the security of TAPI.
Russia has continued to use backstairs influence to discourage the CARs from diversifying their natural gas markets to energy-starved South Asia. To divert Pakistan’s attention from TAPI, Moscow has repeatedly offered Islamabad all-out assistance for the construction of Islamabad’s share of IP gas pipeline. However, the PML-N government has not shown the inclination to complete its portion of the IP due to the apprehension that economic sanctions could be snapped back on Iran anytime in future.
Now, Moscow is trying to befriend the Afghan Taliban so that it can use the militant group to achieve its target of blocking the supply of Central Asian energy resources to South Asia. In this regard, Russia has taken a surprising step by burying the hatchet with those Taliban leaders who once played a pivotal role in inflicting a humiliating defeat on Russian predecessor, the Soviet Union, in Afghanistan. Apparently, the failure of TAPI will compel the CARs to remain heavily dependent on Russia as the main buyer of their natural gas.
Preventing CARs from jumping into Chinese Bandwagon
More and more Central Asian states are falling under the Chinese economic influence in the region. If China continues increasing its economic footprint, Russia will probably lose its declining hegemonic role in the region. This has prompted Putin to merge the Russian-backed Eurasian Economic Union with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In his December 17, 2016 interview with Pakistan Radio, Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Y Dedov said that CPEC is a component of China’s Silk Road and his country has also been working on a similar Eurasian Economic Union. He added that China and Russia are holding discussions to merge the two projects.
Therefore, Putin is trying to reset relations with the Taliban so that the insurgent groups will support Russia for the protection of this grand connectivity initiative in Afghanistan.
Clamping Down upon Regional Drugs Smuggling
Lastly, the cultivation of drugs in Afghanistan has severely impacted Russia over five decades. Russia is not only a transit route for Europe-bound Afghan opiate, it is also a major consumer market. According to some estimates, the Russians consumes around a fifth of the world’s opiate supply. For the Kremlin, it is imperative to partner with the Taliban and work with them to block opiate smuggling to mainland Russia.
Implications for the Region
The Trump administration is increasingly perturbed over the Russian inclination towards the Afghan reconciliation and its geostrategic interests in the region. Washington is apprehensive that Moscow has continued to provide arms and monetary assistance to the Afghan Taliban so that these insurgents will keep creating security and political issues for the US-backed Afghan government.
The US has started employing secret means designed to scuttle all-Russian-sponsored moves regarding peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. The Trump administration will not allow the Afghan government to accept the preconditions and demands which the Taliban always set before talking to Kabul. Along with India, the US will continue to supply arms to the Afghan National Army so that they will desultorily keep battling the Taliban. Inevitably, Russia and some regional countries will provide arms and financial assistance to the Taliban. Such proxy wars will further exacerbate the simmering instability and insurgency in Afghanistan.
Moreover, the Russian new Great Game will instigate Trump administration to increase its military and intelligence presence in Afghanistan. The declining superpower will evidently employ punitive diplomacy, disruptive power and deliberately meddle in China‘s Xinjiang unrest, Balochistan’s low-intensity insurgency and Iran’s clandestine nuclear programme.
Since Pakistan shares a long border with Afghanistan, the Russo-American muscle-flexing in its neighbouring country will create hurdles for Islamabad to successfully conclude its anti-terrorism and counter-militancy operations. The fugitives of the TTP and Baloch insurgent groups will be provided shelters and training camps inside Afghanistan so that they can continue perpetrating terrorist attacks inside Pakistan.
In this emerging situation in the region, Pakistan should move cautiously and avoid siding with any of the two rival powers with regard to the unfolding new Great Game in Afghanistan. The PML-N government needs to take only those diplomatic steps which serve the country’s greater national interests.
