These days Pakistan is facing a mini two front dilemma. The Line of Control in Kashmir and the international border with Afghanistan have gone prickly simultaneously. However there is nothing alarming, both could go only this far. Pakistan should continue to focus on degrading the capacity and capability of terrorist sleeping cells to carry out massive and near simultaneous violent attacks in an increasing number of urban centres.
General Joseph Votel, Commander US Central Command while deposing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 09 has opined that the Indo-Pak conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange: “India’s public policy to ‘diplomatically isolate’ Pakistan hinders any prospects for improved relations…This is especially troubling as a significant conventional conflict between Pakistan and India could escalate into a nuclear exchange, given that both are nuclear powers.” He rightly stated that Pakistan’s requirement for an increased attention on its eastern border “detracts from its efforts to secure the western border with Afghanistan from incursion by Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.” Pakistani seeks to expand border control and improve paramilitary security along the western border. According to the General, despite recent constraints in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan there is “promising coordination” between militaries of the two countries.
Relations between India and Pakistan are becoming less predictable. Pakistan is expecting that the environment would soon be conducive for peace dialogue after the provincial elections in India. Pakistan is usually an election issue in India’s elections as Indian politicians tend to take strong anti-Pakistan positions during the electoral season. In Pakistan, no political leader bashes India to get some extra votes and during Pakistani elections India is not an issue. The Indian political system also should be mature enough to think in terms of peace.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is a strong advocate of peace in the region and has very actively pursued peace with Afghanistan and India and intends continue to do so. There is a logic behind his method because the region’s development hinges upon peace in the region.
On Afghanistan Gen Votel opined that the new US government was encouraged by Pakistan’s military operation Radd-ul-Fasaad “in which they set up simultaneous multiple blocking positions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in order to reinforce Afghan National Defence and Security Forces effort to disrupt activities of Daesh’s Khorasan chapter”. In a brazen cross-border attack from Afghanistan, five soldiers were martyred on March 06. Reportedly, terrorists belonging to Jamat-ul-Ahrar — a breakaway faction of the outlawed TTP — attacked at least three border posts in Mohmand Agency killing five soldiers while another soldier was killed due to firing from Afghan territory in Khyber Agency. The attack came in the backdrop of heightened tension between the two countries and the country-wide operation Radd-ul-Fasaad launched by the armed forces to eliminate the menace of terrorism, including its cross border element. Terrorist outfits under intense pressure in Pakistan, and their cohorts in neighbouring countries are trying to retaliate; the most troubling aspect of the issue is that they are being facilitated by some regional countries.
The attacks on Pakistani border posts by non-state actors from across Afghanistan prove that Pakistan is justified in closing the border and initiating measures for border management. Afghanistan is not showing any seriousness about management of the border as chaotic conditions suit its vested interests which lie in rampant smuggling of goods, and arms, flourishing havens for human and drug traffickers. Pakistan displayed the spirit of goodwill not only for Afghanistan but also for the sake of regional peace and security by opening the border for two days to allow valid visa holders to cross over. However, at the same time, it does not intend to compromise on application of universally accepted procedures for border crossings.
Pakistan has closed its border with Afghanistan, as Kabul was not responding to repeated requests to take action against those hiding in Afghanistan and planning and carrying out terrorist activities in Pakistan. There are verifiable reports that India is misusing Afghan soil against Pakistan. Afghanistan is hands in glove with India in creating instability and sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan.
Pakistan considers the Durand Line as its legitimate international border with Afghanistan and this notion has world-wide recognition. Occasionally Afghanistan hypes the issue to make it controversial but even Afghanistan doesn’t want to take the matter beyond bilateral levels. However, during periods of such tensions, India often floats some dubious gimmicks which could add fuel to the fire. In sync with the ongoing difficult phase, Rupa publishers of India are contemplating to launch a book on the Durand Line by Rajiv Dogra, a former diplomat, and a foreign affairs analyst. This Durand Line focused work is a part of series of joint Indo-Afghan ventures to mount pressure on Pakistan by making the Durand Line a controversial issue, whereby talks should open between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the Durand Line issue. Pakistan very well knows the intent and also knows ways and means to avoid the trap. International law is on Pakistan’s side, moreover the Durand Line has been ratified by several Afghan governments in the past.
Captured India spy Kulbhushan Yadav’s confessional statement, Samjhota Express attack and use of Afghan soil against Pakistan leave no doubt in anybody’s mind as to who is providing succor and sustenance to the terrorists. Culprits of 2007 Samjhota Express bombing in which Indian officials and leaders including Swami Aseemanand had admitted their involvement are moving freely. The Indian Deputy High Commissioner was called in by the Pakistan’s foreign office to express concern over acquittal of Swami Aseemanand in the Ajmer Shrif blast case. Swami Aseemanand had publicly confessed that he was the ‘mastermind’ of Samjhota Express terrorist attack of February 2007 and had also identified a serving Indian army officer Colonel Parohit, who is head of terrorist organization Abhinav Bharat, as his accomplice.
A recently published report at Brookings has concluded that Pakistan’s security threat emanates from India, and that India’s irrational defence buildup is incongruent to its strategic needs, and a reason behind Pakistan’s nuclear and defence programmes. India’s massive arms-buying spree makes it one of the top arms-importers in the world, this arms procurement instinct is driven by its desire for regional hegemony and global power status. Pakistan, on the other hand, has been compelled to acquire and maintain a deterrent capability to ensure its national security. Several international reports and independent observers have drawn attention to the rapid expansion in India’s capability to produce fissile material for military use.
Pakistan does not want to engage in any kind of arms race, nuclear or conventional. The two countries need to engage in meaningful dialogue for mutual restraint measures and conflict resolution. The international community has a role to play in convincing India to positively respond to Pakistan’s proposal for a Strategic Restraint Regime in South Asia.
LoC violations are a matter of concern to Pakistan. During the last year there were more than 400 violations from the Indian side. During the ongoing uprising, more than 110 people have been killed while more than 14,000 have been injured. So far, over 750 people have sustained pellet injuries, with a majority of them have lost their eyesight partially or completely.
In a bid to defuse tensions, the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres is considering holding talks with Indian and Pakistani officials on the deteriorating situation in Kashmir. “He will talk to different officials if it helps move the process along. That’s something that he is looking into,” deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said while responding to a question whether Guterres has come to any conclusion about how to deal with the situation in Kashmir.
Strategic thought process of imposing a two front squeeze on Pakistan is an obsolete notion. Time and again the Pakistan friendly Afghan public has foiled such attempts and with the passage of time, this goodwill has been on an up trajectory. Though the pressures are formidable, Pakistan is capable of sustaining the emanating strain. The successful ECO summit was a manifestation that in the regional dynamics Pakistan could easily ward off nefarious designs of Indo-Afghan nexus.
