Introduction
The main idea of this article is to highlight the emerging tendency in the security and political spectrum of the USA, which in view of the writer, would bring clandestine and covert intelligence havoc in Afghanistan resulting in political instability and chaos, particularly in Iran and Pakistan. If the scenario becomes real then there are chances of strategic lapses for China and Russia as traditional allies of Pakistan and Iran respectively. The idea is supported with an assertion that the new US government will reverse the traditional priorities of the Washington Establishment that includes the Pentagon and CIA covert operations against regional states. The recent political changes in the US would create tussles between the Pentagon/CIA and the White House making foreign policy choices difficult to be achieved. The absence of order in Washington would also jeopardize the ongoing US policies around the world. Differences between the Pentagon/CIA and White House would generate a backlash due to which both military and intelligence organizations will clandestinely deviate and set the discourse of unchecked and unaccountable covert operations in the world, particularly in Afghanistan, which is the interest of the writer. The same attitude will be observed in US’ intelligence posturing in the Middle East, particularly towards Syria. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the political and security behavior of Afghanistan by the regional states. Any political and military posture of Afghanistan in relevance to its diplomacy with neighboring states is predominantly controlled by the CIA and RAW. In association with CIA and RAW, new avenues of covert operations by Israel’s Mossad against Iran and Pakistan would also find an unchecked way. Considering Kabul an independent political actor would not only jeopardize the security of the region but also provide a breeding ground for state (CIA/RAW/Mossad) and non-state actors (ISIS/TTP). Active pursuit of political stability in Afghanistan by Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran could neutralize the highlighted threats.
Politics of White House vs. Washington Establishment
The recent changes in the US administration brought not only political anxiety within Washington DC but also extended uncertainty in international politics. This change in the US administration will be shaping the future discourse of American politics, particularly in reference to its foreign policy. The dimensions of US concentration that have been traditionally based on national security will be molded by the Trump Administration in almost every single region of American interest/ influence. South Asia will be the most relevant and important region that will also go through the US ongoing foreign policy changes. There are two important aspects of US foreign policy that were previously taken into consideration by successive regimes until Obama: (i) the containment of communism during the Cold War now converted into containment of China and (ii) counter terrorism in Afghanistan.
To achieve these objectives both India and Pakistan over the period of time became crucial to US policy. While becoming important US actors in South Asia both Islamabad and New Delhi also crafted their separate way of politics (not in line with the US political priorities). As a matter of fact the diverging policy options of India and Pakistan were always well managed by the successive US administrations. The reasons of US control over South Asian politics was vested in the intelligence and political statesmanship of US leaderships, who knowing the very fact of Indo-Pak regional rivalry managed to get along. In other words, both Pentagon/CIA and the White House always allied to each other, this alliance came into practice since the end of the IIWW that introduced America as the leading international actor in world affairs. The recent political changes in the White House strongly suggest that the time tested alliance of Pentagon/CIA with the White House is going to stray away by bringing internal controversies in the US foreign policy choices. One of the biggest fallout after the changes in the White House will be seen in South Asia, where the sovereignty and soil of Afghanistan will become a battle ground between policy priorities of Pentagon/CIA and the White House.
The victory of Donald Trump is the defeat of Washington’s establishment that since the Cold War had successfully projected the country as ‘political US’. Considering Donald Trump’s election campaign along with his first month in White House, one can argue that he is taking America towards ‘economic US’. The construction of US Presidential elections by the popular media unknowingly highlighted Donald Trump as an anti-establishment candidate that needs to keep away from the most powerful office, the White House. During the campaign Donald Trump successfully presented himself as a man of anti-status quo, whereas Hillary Clinton stayed close to the forces of status quo (the Washington establishment that controls and maintains military interests around the world).
The actions of Donald Trump during the first month in the White House strongly suggest that he does not buy the very construction of the global war on terror. Steps to ban the citizens of 7 Muslim states reflect Donald Trump’s anxiety in realizing the fact that the threat is knocking at the door. In his analogy, closing the door would bring security for the Americans at home. Keeping Muslims away from the US also highlights the possibilities of squeezing the ongoing military operations that during his campaign he called a ‘failure’. In Afghanistan, the Obama Administration carried out one of the biggest US military operations but it seems that the new President is not ready to buy ‘Obama War’ just like ‘Obama Care’. Afghanistan’s security and political status is dependent on US political and military support but the Trump Administration is not likely to support Pentagon/CIA in Afghanistan the way they were supported by the Obama Administration. In this backdrop the US arrangements in Afghanistan to counter terrorism will become volatile making Kabul more vulnerable and prone to non-state actors. Moreover, less political oversight and accountability over Pentagon and CIA by the White House would allow the intelligence agencies to continue play clandestine role to expand political instability beyond Afghanistan. The human resource and technical know-how of CIA will possibly create a new nexus with hostile intelligence agencies like RAW and Mossad to achieve their agenda. After all, the Washington establishment is betting that sooner or later the Trump phenomenon will be over and they will be back in business with the same national security construction of US foreign policy. Whatever is the scenario, the sovereignty and soil of Afghanistan needs to be checked by regional states.
Situational Analysis of Afghanistan
Issues and challenges associated with the political stability of Afghanistan have not been taken seriously by the government in Kabul nor has it been an agenda of the international forces in the country. Since the fall of the Taliban government the county has been in continuous turmoil. About 70% of Afghanistan is disconnected with the concept of sovereignty, neither does it enjoy the authority of ‘writ of the government’. The Taliban who claim the majority of Afghan territory further cherish their de facto political control as a parallel government in Afghanistan. Again the emergence of ISIS and its associated affiliates in Afghanistan received negation from the Taliban, whereas the capabilities of the Kabul government to fight ISIS is almost zero, their political will to do so is nil. On the other hand, wrapped with ideological perspective about their cause, the Afghan Taliban has successfully projected themselves as active soldiers of the soil. Afghan Taliban’s have at least ensured that the areas controlled by them will not be used against the regional countries, therefore, regional countries like Pakistan and Iran are not fully ready to abandon Afghan Taliban as the government in Kabul had bitterly failed to stabilize the areas where they exerted direct control, rather they provide safe heavens to anti-regional forces like RAW and Mossad.
The government in Kabul only sings the song of democracy and sovereignty, whereas it has failed to bring about any sense of security within and in her neighboring states. The presence of India in Kabul is no more a secret and a nexus between RAW and NDS is actively working to destabilize Pakistan. The government in Kabul is providing all possible support to RAW and many terrorist groups to train, plan, and execute their military operations against Pakistan. The clash between the Afghan Taliban as a de facto claimant and the so-called democratic government in Kabul provides an ideal breeding ground for intelligence agencies and their militant wings to misuse the territory. Despite helping the Afghan people and facilitating dialogue between Taliban and Kabul, international forces are watching rogue elements destabilize the regional states.
The commitments and the promises to stabilize Afghanistan by international community only reflect a story of successful failures. After the Taliban government fell, mega-sized construction projects such as the Kabul-Kandahar road, renovations of government buildings, and the refurbishment of military and police offices became the norm. In reality, the flurry of activity favored over function, accomplishing very little. The military, private companies and contractors spent most of the billions promised to rebuild Afghanistan and foreign troops were the focus for nearly every dollar of aid. In reality, Afghanistan never became stable not t was it developed, it became the battlefield of covert operations and producer of suicide squads against its neighbor, Pakistan.
Possible Threat Scenario for Pakistan
Keeping in view the new developments in Washington DC, Pakistan must be aware of the changing security dynamics of Afghanistan. The intelligence agencies hostile to Pakistan will explore all available options to pressurize Islamabad. The puppet government in Afghanistan provides India an ideal opportunity to use its territory against Pakistan. The close interaction of Indian RAW with NDS would get stronger if the White House showed less interest in Afghanistan’s internal affairs; while the interest of the CIA will seek alliance to regional intelligence agencies to remain alive. The US intelligence would continue its covert operations in Afghanistan and possibly seek alliance with RAW. This alliance of CIA, RAW, and NDS without any doubts brings Mossad into the equation. NDS and RAW will continue its operations against Pakistan, whereas CIA and Mossad would keep close eyes on Iran.
India will continue its violations on LoC to keep Pakistan away from Kashmir and Afghanistan. Pakistan and India signed the Ceasefire Agreement in November 2003, since then India has been in violation of the agreement many times. The ceasefire violation is always done purposefully and each time they have caused great damage to civilians residing on the Pakistani side along the Line of Control and working boundary. The Indian side have an agenda behind every cease fire violation, these are multifaceted such as domestic, regional, and international.
Immediately after each violation, India starts a blame game, issuing hostile statements and propaganda to malign Pakistan and serve its domestic agenda. For example, during the 2014 provincial assembly elections, India violated ceasefire agreement more than 200 times.
For international consumption of the Indian objectives both the political and military leadership of India uses violation of the Ceasefire at Line of Control (LoC) an option to divert attention from the Kashmiri freedom struggle and from Indian ongoing atrocities and human rights violations. As a result of Indian atrocities since July 2016 over 120 people were killed and hundreds of protesters injured, besides a large number of people lost their eyesight due to pellet guns in clashes with Indian security forces.
Pakistan has used all peaceful political, diplomatic, and non-governmental means to highlight Indian human rights violations and atrocities at international forums. As a result India has failed to justify its military presence and brutal use of force against the innocent Kashmiri civilians. India is against Pakistan’s international efforts highlighting its violations in Kashmir, Pakistan has also offered India to start dialogue on the Kashmir issue. This has raised multiple questions for the Narendra Modi’s government both at domestic and international fronts who has used the Kashmir hotspot and military standoff at the Line of Control as an ideal scapegoat to neutralize these pressures. Blaming Pakistan also gives them relief from the international community who wants India to engage with Pakistan to settle all bilateral issues, including Kashmir.
This mantra of “blame game’ is also becoming useful for Afghanistan who supports all rouge elements operating against Pakistan. The Indian and Afghani blame game along with joint covert intelligence networking will become more active if the political oversight by the White House is withdrawn. Therefore, it is important to replace the outgoing actor of international oversight with new ones. These new actors shall be China and Russia, whereas Iran must be involved as a replacement of India.
Possible Threat Scenario for Iran
Iran is an important stakeholder of any political change occurring in Afghanistan. A politically abandoned Afghanistan by the USA would also cause great damage to Tehran’s internal and associated security in the region. The absence of US political oversight in Afghanistan would create a space for joint covert operations by CIA and Mossad against Iran. Afghanistan’s so-called political leadership would become hostage to RAW, CIA, NDS, and Mossad who would work on their independent and joint covert operations to destabilize the region. Furthermore, ISIS in Afghanistan becomes an ideal militant organization to be launched against Pakistan and Iran simultaneously. Therefore, Iran and Pakistan must develop a joint counter terrorism intelligence unit to counter such a threat. While mitigating possible threats of covert intelligence operations both states should also improve their ties with the peaceful political actors in Afghanistan to bring them back to the negotiating table. Political stability and a strong representative government in Kabul can only ensure security for Pakistan and Iran.
Possible Threat Scenario for China
In the wake of Afghanistan’s instability, China without any doubt will have to calculate its security and economic costs. The costs are so great for China that Beijing would like to ensure that the proposed scenario should never happen in Afghanistan. On the other hand, success of Chinese security and economic plans associated with Pakistan and Afghanistan would jeopardize Indian interests. Therefore, the spillover of the Afghanistan’s instability into the region will be the only choice for India against Pakistan and China. On the other front, hostile intelligence organizations like CIA and Mossad would also drive instability towards Iran. In the equation of Chinese economic routes and energy corridors, Tehran is a very important country. Any impact on Iran would directly affect Beijing. To avoid any possible backlash from the future instability of Afghanistan, it is crucial for China to make an alliance of its own to help facilitate political process of Afghanistan by bringing all stakeholders together. In this respect, China, Pakistan, and Iran should form an alliance to ensure stability in Afghanistan.
Possible Threat Scenario for Russia
South Asia as a region remained under the strong influence of USA. Since the end of IIWW, the region became hostile to the former Soviet ideology of Communism and this region did not have any Russian strategic interest during the post-Cold War period particularly in the post-9/11 international politics. Interestingly, the reemergence of Russia as an important political actor has reshaped the strategic worldview. Both USA and Russia at the center stage of power politics have drawn specific territorial thresholds against each other. This has not only limited the options of dominant actors like USA but also provided new opportunities of strategic alliances for Russia.
To create territorial thresholds both the USA and Russia found natural allies who helped them assert their interests in particular regions. Syria is crucial for Russia to create territorial foothold in the Middle East, so did Iran. Likewise, Pakistan remained the decisive territorial threshold for USA to stop not only the former USSR but also contemporary Russia.
Today, Pakistan is no more a territorial threshold of USA and this has provided good opportunity for Russia to come close to Islamabad. Moscow with all its good offices has successfully established political and military engagements with Islamabad. As a result of strategic shift between the two, a greater cluster of political, economic, diplomatic, and security nexus is under way. Pakistan and Russia share common objectives on issues of terrorism and security of Afghanistan. In case of Afghanistan’s instability and its spillover towards Iran, Pakistan and Central Asian Republics (CARs), Russian neighborhood policy and its strategic objectives will go in vain. Furthermore, prosperity associated with economic stability of South Asia that allows Moscow far greater opportunities than ever before will not materialize due to instability in the region. Therefore, it is envisioned that a formal alliance shall be made between Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran to help Afghanistan achieve its political and economic stability.
Policy Options for Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran
Based on the scenario based analysis of the situation around Afghanistan, the following steps should be taken by Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran:
i. Political and diplomatic efforts to reinstall dialogue process between Taliban and Kabul government,
ii. Form a Joint Intelligence Coordination Command to gather intelligence and relevant data hampering interests of the alliance,
iii. Training of Afghan civil and military forces to better equip them against the non-state actors like ISIS,
iv. Activation of the SCO to connect Afghanistan with regional economic and security structure,
v. Financial commitments to uplift the infrastructural development of Afghanistan.
Conclusion
The overall scenario of Afghanistan and its situational analysis suggest that there are bleak chances for political stability. The current political regime in Kabul and presence of hostile intelligence agencies pose great security challenges for neighboring countries. On the other side forces like ISIS, TTP, and separatist groups receive direct support from rogue elements within the Afghanistan government to undermine the consensus against terrorism. Under the prevailing circumstances, it is also assumed that in Washington the civil and military establishments are not on the same page. Afghanistan is a vulnerable state and in the absence of US political oversight it is going to become more so. As discussed earlier such a scenario would make Afghanistan a battlefield for intelligence operations against Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russian interests. To deal with clandestine objectives of hostile intelligence agencies, the regional states have to form a real alliance with objectives to promote peace in the region.
End Notes
Abdul Sattar, Afghanistan: Past, Present and Future, From Jihad to Civil War (The Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad, 1997).
Kamal Matinuddin, Power Struggle in Hindukush (1978-91) (Wajidalis Lahore, 1991).
Barnett R. Rubin, The Search for Peace in Afghanistan: From Buffer State to a Failed State (Yale University Press, 1995).
Kamal Matinuddin, The Taliban Phenomenon, Afghanistan 1994–1997 (Oxford University Press, 1999).
Musa Khan Jalalzai, Taliban and the Great Game in Afghanistan (Vanguards Publishers, 1999).
Musa Khan Jalalzai, Taliban and the Post Taliban Afghanistan (Sang E Meel Publishers, 2003).
