Introduction
The emergence of the wealthiest and deadliest militant organisation, the Islamic State (IS) or Daesh directly poses an existential threat to the frail security and territorial integrity of some developing South Asian countries. After being immensely weakened through a extensive aerial bombings by the coalition forces in the militancy-hit Middle East, the militant outfit has been hectically making some endeavours to secretly establish its mushrooming hotbeds in South Asia, which are chiefly aimed at covertly indoctrinating, recruiting and supplying hardened fighters to its nefarious missions in the oil-rich Middle East. Ominously, according to some credible reports and recent incidents, the militant organisation has spilled over into war-battered Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, but the governments in all these countries have by far downplayed the lurking threat and are still unmindful of its apocalyptic ramifications in the foreseeable future. If the terror group is not taken seriously and collectively nipped in the bud and its budding organisational structure is not dismantled root and branch, its well-trained and lethally equipped fighters will unleash a continual reign of deadly terror in the already less integrated region. The article is an attempt to spell out the increasing presence of IS and its adverse impacts on the region, especially on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. It also provides a feasible way forward on how to earnestly root out the militant organization, thus safeguarding South Asia from imminent terror in the near future.
The specter of IS is a looming threat to the fragile South Asian security in both urban and rural centers. “After its emergence in Iraq, the terror group published a roadmap for the next five years. The document refers to the region where Pakistan and Afghanistan are situated as ‘Khorasan’ (the old name for Afghan, Pakistani, Iranian and Central Asian territories)”i. If the main regional powers relentlessly continue to exercise outright reluctance while deliberately avoiding stringent measures against the terror outfit, IS will orchestrate a series of lethal attacks after establishing its roots of terror in the region.
IS-Khorasan in Afghanistan
With its phenomenal battlefield successes in the Middle East and effective propaganda message, IS-Khorasan (IS-K) has attracted an abundant supply of already trained jihadi fighters and absorbed many small bands of militants inside war-stricken Afghanistan, thus making significant but alarming inroads into this strife-torn country. The first signs of IS-K in Afghanistan appeared in 2014; the militant group was formed by former Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members who had little connection to the IS in Syria and Iraq. And now its fighters include both Taliban defectors and foreign fighters. “The militant group has been able to carry out operations throughout Afghanistan and once demonstrated the capacity to infiltrate and attack populated areas, including the attack on the Pakistani consulate in provincial capital Jalalabad in January 2016.”ii
According to some recent reports, the terror outfit has successfully gained adequate areas for establishing strongholds in the provinces of Nangarhar, Paktika, Nooristan and Badakhan in order to cultivate its terror. Both the US and Afghan security forces have thus far dismally failed to identify the strongholds and training centers of IS-K in the country. Gen John W. Nicholson, who commands the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan, said: “IS controlled around 10 districts in Nangarhar province in December last year. But since January this year, when President Barack Obama authorised US forces to participate in counterterrorism attacks, the group has been forced to retreat from some of the areas.”iii In this context, a recent report of Middle East Institute also indicates IS-K’s declining role and faltering presence in Afghanistan. “Recent losses, at the hands of both the Taliban and US-backed Afghan forces, have imperiled the IS-K’s future in Afghanistan.”iv The report also outlines some factors which have slowed down the group’s presence in the country. “The group’s brutality, inflexible ideology alienating most local Afghans, its ground losses from a combination of Taliban pushback, Afghan security forces operations and US-targeted air strikes”v have weakened IS-K in Afghanistan.
However, such timely retreat does not mean that IS-K has been flushed out; rather, it manifestly spotlights that the intimidating organisation has acquired enough space in conflict-torn Afghanistan to tactically shift its increasing fighters and training centers somewhere safe when under mounting attacks from the US or Afghan forces. Most of the contemporary terrorist and militant groups are largely manipulative at dexterously employing such effectual tactics to clandestinely go underground in order to escape most of the unnecessary casualties and other losses from their enemies, and resurface with more lethal power to inflict further damages.
Afghanistan’s vast mountainous and difficult terrains, abundant supply of Jihadi fighters, some of whom are attracted more to money than ideology, massive corruption in the ranks of Afghanistan’s unity government, disorganised and ill-equipped armed forces, a mostly non-functional government enveloped by simmering rivalries and vast array of ethnic divisions and support among the top echelons of the Afghan government are some of the underlying factors that have helped the rampaging organization to mushroom in Afghanistan despite the targeting of its leaders by the US through drones.
From the above mentioned provinces, IS-K secretly continues to conduct its terror attacks on government’s installations, organises deadly clashes with the resurgent Taliban and blatantly abducts members of the Hazara community, including soft targets such as vulnerable women and children. “IS-K has claimed responsibility for a recent suicide bombing on a peaceful protest in the Afghan capital that killed at least 80 people and injured more than 200. On April 22, 2015, it also claimed responsibility for a deadly blast that rocked the bustling town of Jalalabad – killing more than 40 people.”vi These attacks had all the apparent hallmarks of such assaults conducted by the group in war-ravaged Iraq and civil war-torn Syria. Since Afghanistan is still reeling from insecurity and instability, more such deadly attacks could well be in the offing given IS-K’s uninterrupted expansion of vast networks in the country.
There are also reports that the IS-K has systematically penetrated even the high-ranking Afghan government officials. Notably, one supporter of the militant outfit- recently arrested by the Afghan agencies was engineer Mohammad Khan, the first adviser and a close friend of Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah.vii This incident is just a tip of the iceberg in a country torn by foreign invasions, internal divisions, insidious terrorism and perpetual bad governance. Apart from that, it is likely that some well-trained members of the group have also covertly penetrated into the ill-organised and disillusioned security forces of Afghanistan primarily calculated to gather needed intelligence and organise a slew of attacks on the country. For IS-K, such a delicate practice is quite easy because the Taliban have relentlessly continued to do so over a decade, thus creating a ground for IS-K to follow suit with relative ease.
The security forces of Afghanistan are largely toothless and badly equipped to root out the terror group. Therefore, the specter of IS-K today poses the severest threat to the fragile security of conflict-torn Afghanistan.
Islamic State in Bangladesh
The Islamic State is also hell bent upon spreading its tentacles into Bangladesh. In the recent well-organised attacks on the Holey Artisan Bakery restaurant of Dhaka, six heavily armed and well educated fighters of IS staged a 12-hour night siege in the cafe, killing at least 21 people. Among the dead were nine Italians, seven Japanese, an American, an Indian and two Bangladeshi Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and naval commandos. The attacks mounted by IS’ six fighters were so ferocious and severe that the Bangladeshi government had to deploy Special Forces to counter the assaults.
Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the incumbent prime minister of Bangladesh has ominously provided IS with a fertile ground by her politics of blatant victimisation of the opposition and Islamists. She has brazenly continued to hang and persecute the main leaders of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) on fragile and fabricated grounds. Such policies of political vendetta have dangerously radicalised a good percentage of highly educated youth in the country, who have joined IS in order to take revenge on the government of the Awami League (AL).
At present, the terror outfit has a good number of staunch sympathisers and hotbeds inside Bangladesh to be able radicalise and indoctrinate the disenchanted youth so as to carry out its nefarious designs of bloodletting and terror. Therefore, a string of deadly terror attacks in Bangladesh may be on the horizon.
It is a pity that the AL government has thus far denied the existence of IS in the country while blaming the JI and BNP for attacks. That does not bode well for the long-term security of this developing country in the near future.
IS-Khorasan in Pakistan
IS-Khorasan has established its foothold and found a large number of sympathisers in Pakistan as well. The terror outfit has constituted a ten member Strategic Planning Wing which is entrusted with the responsibility for recruitment, planning, funding, and training of militants under the banner of Daesh/IS in Pakistan.
Since then, the militant group has been engaged in clandestinely establishing its organisational structure in the country, especially in the terrorism-ravaged tribal areas. It has succeeded in recruiting domestic militants and acquiring the support of some like minded terrorist and militant outfits such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ).
Pakistan is already beset by terrorist organisations such as the TTP, IMU, ETIM, etc. but the army has successfully dismantled the TTP’s organisational structure, central command and control centers, communication networks and, above all, their operational bases through the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
However, the military operations and the resultant weakening of the TTP have proved to be a blessing in disguise for IS-K to come forward with its wealth, sophisticated weaponry and strategies to prop up the TTP. IS-K’s funds would put new life into the TTP and help it with the reorganisation and fresh recruitment, which could result in a new wave of violence engulfing Pakistan. The TTP and other affiliated militant organisations could then carry out attacks in a more lethal manner.
When the TTP was in a shambles due to its internal rifts and Operation Zarb-e-Azb, some of its top commanders pledged allegiance to IS Chief Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. These commanders were former TTP spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid, Hafiz Saeed Khan who operated from the Orakzai Agency, Hafiz Daulat Khan who was TTP commander in the Kurram Agency, Maulana Gul Zaman who was controlling the affairs in the Khyber Agency, Mufti Hassan who was the TTP commander for Peshawar and Khalid Mansoor who was responsible for Hangu.viii
In addition to this, TTP commander from Bajaur Maulana Abu Bakar, his deputy Qari Zahid, and affiliates, commanders, fighters, religious advisors etc. have accepted Al-Baghdadi as their “caliph”. These commanders would be quite helpful for IS-K because they know the ground realities, have a close rapport with the locals, have connections with the Afghan Taliban and are aware of the Pakistan Army’s moves.
In October last year, some Uzbek fighters from an Al-Qaeda-linked militant organisation threw their support behind IS-K. A top leader for the IMU, an ally of the Taliban mainly based in Pakistan’s tribal belt since the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, announced its backing for IS. The support of the Taliban and Central Asian terror groups based in our war-torn tribal areas has further exacerbated the nature of terrorism and militancy.
In December 2015, around 20 men, women and children connected with a Lahore based Islamic Centre left the country to join IS in Syria. Apart from this, graffiti in favour of the terror outfit has repeatedly appeared in many cities across the country. According to a report from the provincial government of Balochistan, “the IS-K militants have recruited between 10,000 and 12,000 fighters from Hangu in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, and Kurram Agency and some other areas in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)”.ix
Two recent terrorist attacks in Karachi pointed towards the IS-K connection. The security forces found IS-K leaflets after the failed assassination attempt on Dr. Debra Lobo, the American Vice Principal of the Jinnah Medical and Dental College in Karachi, as well as the targeted killing of 44 people of the minority Ismaili Muslim community in the city.x After the preliminary investigation, the security forces captured a few people allegedly linked with Al-Qaeda, which shows that likeminded militant organisations or people are carrying out terrorist attacks and using the brand name of the Islamic State.xi
All this is a clarion call for Pakistan to take stringent measures to immediately stamp out the militant group before it launches a series of insidious attacks in the country.
Islamic State in India
IS is also trying to cultivate its terror in India. “In January this year, Delhi police arrested four members of IS who were planning a terrorist attack ahead of Indian Republic Day.”xii In July, IS said that it was planning to avenge the deaths of Muslims killed in riots in the state of Gujarat and elsewhere. “India’s top security agency has lately arrested two more suspected members of the notorious terror group in the Birbhum district of West Bengal.”xiii
The communal and anti-Muslim policies of the right-wing government of BJP under Prime Minster Narendra Modi have invited the militant group to recruit radicalised Muslims throughout India. After Bangladesh, IS may attack India anytime in the foreseeable future.
How to root out Islamic State in South Asia?
The lurking threat posed by IS is rather serious for the region. To effectively counter the terror of this militant outfit, all regional countries should bury their hatchets and mend their ties with one another by forging a strong alliance to root it out, especially from Afghanistan.
The Islamic State is a transnational militant organisation with huge financial resources and affiliates around the globe. It poses an unprecedented challenge to global peace and security. The level of threat posed by the IS demands a comprehensive strategy at the regional and global level. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the situation demands a different strategy because here the IS-K militants are not controlling large territories as they do in Iraq and Syria. Nevertheless, the threat of IS-K is emerging after the allegiance of the local militant commanders.xiv
The AL government in Bangladesh must stop suppressing the leaders of both the JI and the BNP. More importantly, the government should consider IS as a threat and plan prudently to flush the militant group out. Evidently, the AL government of Bangladesh desperately lacks comprehensive and realistic counter-militancy and counter-radicalization laws, so it is imperative for the AL to craft new anti terror measures and execute them without discrimination. Moreover, seminaries in Bangladesh should be brought under official regulation and their distorted syllabi should be modified in such a way to inculcate “truly Islamic” precepts in students.
Since the Afghan forces are facing a two-pronged threat, one from the Afghan Taliban and the other from the emerging IS-K, it is essential for the regional states to help in training of the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police. The US-led alliance is taking the lead in training the Afghan National Security forces. The signing of Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is a good omen for Afghanistan. Under this agreement, the US and its allies not only bear the financial cost of the Afghan military but also train them on modern lines, and improve their fighting skills and overall operational capabilities.xv
Pakistan cannot afford more bloodshed and violence. The government and the military leadership should hammer out a comprehensive strategy to stop IS-K from gaining more ground in the country. In this context, the civilian leadership should depoliticise, empower and equip the police force adequately against all militant and terror outfits. Measures must also be adopted to empower the whole nation in all spheres of life but before everything else the government should implement the National Action Plan (NAP) and revive the dormant National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA).
The current Indian government should shun discriminatory and repressive policies against its Muslim population in order to impede the Muslims being indoctrinated by IS.
The Islamic State is the wealthiest terrorist group in the world. On the basis of its immense financial assets it is helping other terrorist organisations, and establishing its branches in other countries. There is a dire need to curb its financingxvi and these sources of funding could only be disrupted with the collective effort by regional powers. “The drug trade, human trafficking, charities, natural resources, and extortion on the main highways generate millions of dollars for IS annually. All these sources of funds need to be curbed to halt the advance of the Islamic State militants. In Afghanistan, the IS-K militants focus on the drug trade. The lucrative drug trade in Afghanistan could generate additional millions of dollars for them. Pakistan, along with other regional states, must take concrete steps to control drug trade originating from this region. Main supply routes of this drug trade are from Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian states. All these countries must work together and coordinate their operations against drug mafia.”xvii
The role of religious scholars cannot be ignored in countering terrorism. A counter-narrative must be built with decrees from supportive arguments of the Holy Quran and Sunnah (traditions of Prophet Muhammad (Pbuh)). There is no room for brutality or extremism in Islam. Islam is a religion of peace and it does not preach violence and terrorism. The true picture of Islam should be revived in respective Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been employing this strategy of de-radicalisation and counter extremism in their respective countries with great success.xviii These two countries may take the lead in devising a counter-narrative to the IS ideology.
Conclusion
The Islamic State’s specter has further complicated the already perilous security situation in South Asia. The terror group has fully capitalised on the mindset of regional governments — they consider IS threat a non-existent problem to reckon with— to strike its roots from Afghanistan to Bangladesh. Though US aerial strikes in Afghanistan have made it difficult for IS-K to spread its terror in every nook and cranny of Afghanistan, the militant group has gone underground and preparing to resurface and launch a wave of deadly terror in the country; Afghan security forces are largely rickety and ramshackle to counteract the group once it is on the rampage. The governments in Pakistan and Bangladesh are also unmindful to the lurking threat posed by IS which bodes ill for the security of both countries. To make the impending terror of IS a non-starter, the regional countries should be on the qui vive with clear-cut, all-comprehensive and pragmatic counterterrorism and counter-militancy strategies against the group.
End Notes
i Ayaz Ahmed, “ Is Daesh a threat to Pakistan?”, The News International , December 17, 2015, accessed September 1,2016, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/82316-Is-Daesh-a-threat-to-Pakistan
ii MEI Policy Focus 2016-11, “The Islamic State in Afghanistan: Examining its Threat to Stability”, Middle East Institute, May 2016, page 1
iii Anwar Iqbal, “Most IS men in Afghanistan are TTP fighters”, Dawn, January 8, 2016, accessed September 1,2016, http://epaper.dawn.com/print-textview.php?StoryImage=01_08_2016_003_009
iv Ibid
v Op.cit.p.1
vi Ayaz Ahmed, “The Daesh Problem”, The News International, 29 July, 2016, accessed 1 September 2016, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/138473-The-Daesh-problem
vii Ibid
viii https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/138473-The-Daesh-problem
ix Mubashir Zaidi, “IS recruiting thousands in Pakistan, govt warned in ‘secret’ report,” Dawn, 8 November 2014.
x Roohan Ahmed, “ISIS presence in Pak-Afghan region: An unresolved mystery,” The News, 25 May 2015.
xi Ibid
xii Ayaz Ahmed “The Daesh Problem”, op.cit.
xiii Ibid
xiv Fawad A Nazami, “Afghan-Indo alliance: Seeking Guarantor for Afghanistan’s National Security,” Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol.03, No, 01, 2015, p.29.
xv Zahid Shahab Ahmed and Stuti Bhatnagar, “Conflict or Cooperation? The Role of India and Pakistan in Post-2014 Afghanistan,” South Asian Studies, Vol. 30, No.1, January 2015, <http://pu.edu.pk/images/ journal/csas/PDF/18%20Zahid%20Shahab%20Ahmed_30_1.pdf>, p.273.
xvi Masood ur Rehman Khattak, Manzoor Khan Afridi, and Husnul Amin, “The Emergence Of Islamic State: Implications For Pakistan And Afghanistan”, Spotlight, Institute Of Regional Studies Islamabad, Vol. xxxivNos. 10, October 2015, p.18
xvii Ibid
xviii Marisa L. Porges, “The Saudi Deradicalization Experiment,” Council on Foreign Relations, 22 January 2010, <http://www.cfr.org/ radicalization and- extremism/saudi-deradicalization-experiment/ p21292>; and John G. Horgan, “De-radicalization programs offer hope in countering terrorism,” Los Angeles Times, 13 February 2015 <http://www.latimes.com/ opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0215-horgan-terrorist-deradicalization-20150215- story.html>.
