Introduction
The global threat to world security in the first half of the 20th century emanated principally from the European powers and Japan as they fought for control of resources by protecting/expanding the lands they had colonized in Asia and Africa. Two great wars were fought during the period where power projection was the casus belli for the mass slaughter these ‘civilized’ nations had engaged in. USA was the key factor during WW II for the victory of the Allies and it was the only major player without a stake in the colonial holdings.
During the second half of the century, the Cold War between two nuclear superpowers USA and USSR was the dominant global threat as they wrestled with each other primarily through proxy wars to expand their economic and cultural world domination armed with a nuclear arsenal that could vaporize the globe many times over. The demise of USSR in the 1990s ended the Cold War era and USA the sole superpower lorded over the world affairs with gay abandon for almost a decade and a half. The turn of the century witnessed the challenge to the US global stranglehold where the 9/11 attack marked the beginning of a new form of warfare led by non-state actors resorting to unconventional war fighting methodology which the West terms as Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW).
Led initially by al Qaeda in the name of Islam it does little to distinguish combatants from non-combatants and attacks on civilian targets exceed the military ones by a fair margin. Initially it pitted the nation states against a religiously motivated franchise that drew support from a section of the Muslims across the globe, even from some residing in Europe and the USA; the suicide bomber either deployed singly or as a member of a small team is their weapon of choice. The developed world spearheaded by USA has declared a war on these groups terming it as Global War on Terror where officially almost all the Muslim states are with them without the full backing of their people. The other side has declared the contest as a holy Jihad to fight the infidels who in their narrative are waging a war against Islam.
The al Qaeda philosophy which gave birth to the ‘Jihadists’ has since been overtaken by an even more virulent form of a militant group who have carved out a reasonably large chunk of territory belonging to Iraq and Syria and declared it as an independent state of Daesh-ad-Dawlah al-Islāmiyah fī ‘l-ʿIrāq wa-sh-Shām also known as Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) or Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to be governed on their concept of the Salafi doctrine of Sunni Islam. Since then Daesh have unleashed a string of terror attacks globally targeting both the western world and those Muslim states they consider as lackeys of the West. Daesh/ISIS/ISIL has now been declared as the major threat to global security in the 21st century.
The damage caused worldwide by the Jihadists so far bears no comparison to the slaughter of humanity witnessed in the two great wars of the previous century. Even limited wars between two countries (India-Pakistan, Arab-Israel, Vietnam War, Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, Operation Iraqi Freedom in Iraq 2003) have caused far greater destruction and loss of human lives than the combined actions to date of the al Qaeda and Daesh syndicates, yet the wars fought between and among nation states were not deemed as global threat whereas the pesky al Qaeda and Daesh have been elevated to that level. Why this is so is food for thought.
How have a handful of militants with limited military hardware and scant financial resources by comparison become a threat to the whole world, a threat which powerful nation states are finding hard to contain? What are the factors behind their growth and which states are directly or indirectly responsible for their birth and continued existence? How can this threat be countered at the global level and does Daesh pose a threat to Pakistan and if it does, how should Pakistan counter it? These are the areas that to the extent possible need detailed and unbiased reflection.
Chronological Development of Daesh
Daesh is a recent phenomenon and its chronological development is well documented and fortunately in this sphere there is a near unanimous consensus among historians and scholars across the board. On the aspects of why the movement took root and who were directly or indirectly responsible for the emergence and the reason for its continued survival, despite the rhetoric condemnation and overt military actions against it by very powerful nations of the world, opinions vary.
The roots of Daesh may be traced to Abu Musab al Zarqawi, a Jordanian who had established Jamaat al-Tawhid wal Jihad (JTJ) in 1999 to fight the Soviet Union forces in Afghanistan. When the Taliban fell Zarqawi fled to Iraq and reorganised the JTJ in Iraq. During the US invasion of Iraq his JTJ became a resistance group whose aims were to drive the US out of Iraq, overthrow the Shiite Iraqi government and finally purge the land of all Shia Muslims and establish an Islamic State in the Sunni Salafi school of thought.i The growth of Daesh from 2004 onwards in a period just over a decade may be divided into the following four stages:
Stage One (2004-2006)
The removal of Saddam by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, followed by the dismantling of the Iraqi Army and the demolition of the government structure created a vacuum in the country’s fragile social fabric. The prosecution of the Iraqi Sunni population by the Shia regime under Al Maliki led the country into further chaos and confusion. As Zarqawi’s setup grew more active he affiliated his organization with al Qaeda. The group pledged alliance to Osama bin Laden and was rebranded as al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), also known as al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Waging a vicious guerrilla campaign against the American forces in Iraq and the Shiite population there, his organization drew support mainly from the Sunni Muslims in the country many of whom were well trained, well-armed Iraqi soldiers who had been summarily dismissed by the US administration when it had disbanded the entire Iraqi Army after the fall of Saddam.
In 2006 AQI joined hands with other Islamist insurgents in Iraq to form the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), without the permission or approval of the top al Qaeda leadership. The nomenclature suggested the establishment of a caliphate governed by the Islamic Sharia laws as defined by the Sunni Salafi school of thought. His movement met disapproval from the al Qaeda leadership in private while it continued to voice support for Zarqawi in public. Zarqawi was eventually eliminated by a US air strike in 2006 and he is considered as the father of Daesh. The killing of Zarqawi ended the first stage.
Stage Two (2004-2011)
After the assassination of Zarqawi the multitude of Jihadi networks in Iraq waging a guerrilla campaign were amalgamated under Zarqawi’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). ISI served as an umbrella setup that continued to wage vicious attacks using the subconventional warfare strategy against the US force and its allies in Iraq. The introduction of US General David Petraeus as the supreme commander of the Allied Forces in Iraq brought in a fresh doctrine for combating adversaries indulging in subconventional war. Known as the Petraeus Doctrine it states that in a subconventional war armed conflicts would be protracted, ambiguous and continuous; application of force becoming a lesser part of the soldier’s repertoire.ii
Petraeus’s operational plan was to help rebuild, not restructure, and in the long run foster an environment of political stability and economic self-sufficiency – win the hearts and minds of the locals (moderates). To achieve this end the US soldiers were made aware of and taught to be sensitive to the local customs, traditions and values. In addition he asked for and was provided additional troops (surge) to implement his strategy. Petraeus’ strategy helped in weaning away the moderate Iraqi Sunnis and diminished support for the ISI.iii American military strikes against the ISI top leadership succeeded in eliminating Abu Omar al Baghdadi and his deputy Abu Hamza al Muhajir. ISI leadership was then taken over by another prominent Iraqi jihadist Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the current incumbent.
Stage Three (2012-June 2014)
In Syria, peaceful protests by a section of the Syrian public against the rule of President Bashar al Asad was brutally put down by the Syrian army, intelligence services, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Shia Islamist militia and their patron Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The protesters became disenchanted, disillusioned and then radicalised and violently militantiv and the movement soon took the shape of a civil war in Syria. Support for the revolutionaries from the world body was initially muted partly because of the reluctance of the Obama administration in getting militarily involved in the Middle East turmoil and the withdrawal of US combat elements from Iraq and this vacuum was quickly filled by al Qaeda, particularly ISI of Iraq. They established a branch in Syria called the al Nusra front (support front) and the difference and infighting between the ISI and al Qaeda eventually led to ISI formally splitting from al Qaeda and the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (Syria)/Levant (ISIS/ISIL)v with Daesh as the English acronym of the Arabic nomenclature. Daesh was formally disowned by al Qaeda in 2014.
Stage Four (as of June 2014)
ISIS under Abu Bakar al Baghdadi achieve major territorial gains, the most prominent being the takeover of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq and control of major portions of eastern Syria. Al Baghdadi declared the captured territories as an Islamic State (or Islamic Caliphate) with al Raqqah as the capital and himself as the Caliph. In September 2014, the United States has begun a comprehensive air campaign against the ISIS where France, UK, Germany and Turkey along with Iraq become a part of the new coalition. Russia also declared war on ISIS and started a bombing campaign against them. However, Western sources complain that the Russian air campaign is also targeting the Free Syrian Army which is an ally of the western powers and are battling the forces of Assad’s Syria. Since Russia supports the Assad regime privately it considers the Free Syrian Army a legitimate target while publicly denying any such attacks.
A seesaw battle is being waged between Daesh and the formidable coalition of sorts which despite its overwhelming military superiority and heavy employment of air power has not been able to defeat the latter. Unwillingness by the Coalition to commit ground forces in the arena and the inability of the Iraqi and Syrian (Assad’s Army) ground forces to expel the intruders from their lands has allowed Daesh to survive so far. Mosul and some other critical areas have been changing hands but a fatal blow to Daesh is yet to be delivered. Daesh in the meanwhile is waging a comprehensive terror campaign against its numerous enemies both internally and abroad.
Funding Sources of Daesh
Running a state is an expensive proposition requiring huge resources which the state generates through various means-the resource requirement for running a state that is at war with the world goes up manifold. How has ISIS, with zero official trade or commerce activity with the rest of the globe and a small landmass (about the size of Israel) managed to administer the State, field a substantial land force and employ expensive military hardware? In its armoury it has modern battle tanks, sophisticated field guns and other wherewithal to engage in both conventional and unconventional warfare and get the better of military forces of nation states like Iraq and Syria.
Many in the Arab and Muslim lands conclude that this is because ISIS is the illegitimate child of the USA and is being funded and employed by them in the Machiavellian spirit to subvert the Islamic world with the aim of eventually taking over their oil/gas fields and mineral wealth, besides reducing any danger to the state of Israel. The creation, funding and control of Daesh by USA is one of the many conspiracy theories rampant in the Muslim world generally based on hearsay but with not enough empirical evidence to support it. Yes, USA is guilty of creating an environment that gave rise to Daesh, many western scholars agree, terming it as ‘unintended consequences’ but there is insufficient evidence to conclusively conclude that Daesh is the creation of USA and is funded and controlled by them. This is not to discount covert support to Daesh by the CIA and Israel’s Mossad when it (Daesh) engages Hezbollah and Iranian backed Bashar ul Assad’s Syrian military.
Some of the weapons and war fighting equipment that USA supplied to the Free Syrian and the Iraqi Army could well have fallen into the hands of Daesh through battle victories as war booties. Some of the Iraqi and Free Syrian Army soldiers might even have voluntarily defected to the other side with their arms. In addition there are arms merchants termed as carpetbaggers who could be of any nationality, even Americans, ready to sell arms in the black market to the highest bidder as long as one has money to pay upfront.
In the western world many would point directly at Saudi Arabia along with some Gulf States in the region as the principal financier of Daesh. They would argue that this support perhaps is not by the Royal rulers but by the Sunni Arab followers of the Salafi school of thought who covertly fund the movement by transferring money outside the banking channels.
Before the Daesh monster raised its ugly head, there are credible reports of massive funding of the AQI and IS by the rich Sunni Arabs and other Sunni states of Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.vi After Daesh declared itself a Caliphate and targeted the Royals governing the donor states, the official donations stopped or has been reduced to a trickle. Yet, wealthy individuals in these countries picked up where the governments left off. Daesh continues to be funded from sources within these countries unabated.vii
Research on the funding aspect of Daesh by reputed western research cells has revealed that it represents a very small percentage of its overall resource generation. Daesh has successfully tapped other venues, legal, illegal and even criminal to keep their coffers filled enough to run a state and finance a war. According to a study by RAND Corporation in 2014, 95% of Daesh revenue is generated from within and only 5% from foreign sources. Funds are raised internally through taxation of the public under their rule, sale of oil, ransom money through abduction, human smuggling (the refugee exodus because of the civil war being charged for illegal immigration), sale of archaeological artefacts, bank heists and other criminal activities.viii
Daesh is the bitterest enemy of Syria under Assad yet the latter is reported to import millions of dollars’ worth of oil from Daesh. Since the eruption of the civil war in Syria the country’s oil production has slumped from 385,000 barrels per day to a mere 10,000 daily because most of its productive oilfields have fallen into the hands of Daesh, providing them the most valuable resource.ix Given that international sanctions against Assad’s regime has severely restricted oil import from neighbouring oil producing countries, Daesh remains the only other viable option. Daesh too readily supplies oil to its nemesis knowing fully well that it would be used to fuel aircraft and tanks for operations against them simply because they too need cash to run the country and finance the war – such is the irony of this particular conflict. Turkey is also accused by Russia of buying oil from Daesh,x besides allowing it to transit through its territory for further export;xi a charge that Turkey denies vehemently.xii
IHS Inc.xiii in its 2015 report detailed the various funding sources of Daesh, concluding that the group is pulling some $80 million a month from various sources. Half of the revenue is generated through taxes while oil sales account for 40% of their income, making over $2 million dollars per day and the rest from taxes, drug smuggling and various criminal means.xiv The oil sales, according to IHS is suffering a decline because of air strikes hitting its oil infrastructure.xv Jamie Hansen-Lewis and Jacob N. Shapiro contend that Daesh is vulnerable from a financial perspective and a strategy that focuses on targeting its fragile economic base will reduce their survival odds considerably.xvi
Daesh’s Manpower Recruitment Sources
Despite a reputation of brutality, extreme cruelty and savagery, Daesh still manages to attract manpower from across the globe in their Jihad against the infidels and the establishment of a true Caliphate replicating their vision of the golden period of the first four rightful Caliphs. They are able to entice youth, rich and poor, educated and barely literate and even young women and ladies from the Muslim lands and the West to fight for their cause. The volunteers who become Daesh fighters may be classified into three categories.
The first group belong to Sunni Arabs of the Salafi School from the Middle East and North Africa. Financially well off and literate they are extremely disappointed by what they consider deviant ways of their rulers and are convinced salvation lies in return to the puritanical teachings of Imam Ahmad ibn Hanbal, the founder of the Hanbali jurisprudence and consider themselves as Salafis. Unable to voice their dissent in their home country because of fear of severe repression by the ruling junta, they gravitate to the Daesh philosophy and justify the violence and savagery as a means to the end. Helped by their fellow sympathisers they migrate illegally to the Daesh controlled regions where after some rudimentary military training become a part of the Daesh combat force.
The second category belongs primarily to the Muslim Diaspora in Europe and USA. Many of them are second or even third generation immigrants, born and educated there. Most belong to the middle class moderately practicing Muslim families. Their reason for joining Daesh could be varied: anger due to racial or religious slur they face in the society because of their colour or belief; their own inadequacies which made them unfit in the western society; rage at what they consider extreme injustices the western powers perpetuate on Muslim nations, etc.
Consider the following: to avenge the 9/11 attack where about 3000 US citizens lost their lives, USA invaded and destroyed two Muslim nations that were not directly involved in the terror raid, killing and maiming millions while sparing the country from where 15 of the 19 hijackers had surfaced. The West swears by and preaches democratic values, yet openly supports autocrats/dictators/kings/emirs that serve as their puppets in Muslim countries. These are some of the factors that disillusion them to the extent that they revolt against their country. Before Daesh many covertly became a part of the al Qaeda franchise plotting and planning subversive terror acts in their home country. With Daesh providing the platform of a state they voluntarily, clandestinely, illegally and in most cases without the knowledge, blessings or permission of their family migrate and join the Daesh fraternity. According to Marc Sageman and Scot Atran “radicalised European youth disaffected from their own societies are not seeking Islam, but ‘a cause’”.
According to a Washington Post article by Anthony Faiola and Souad Mekhennet, “the Islamic state is constructing an increasing number of street toughs and ex-cons as the nature of radicalization evolves in the era of its self-proclaimed caliphate”.xvii The ring leader of the Paris attack Abdelhamid Abaaoud was allegedly linked to a gang of thieves led by a man nicknamed Santa Claus. The gang included young men who would join Daesh in Syria and Iraq and are reported to be involved in robbing tourists and shoplifting to finance the Daesh war effort. European jails, the two authors surmised, have been breeding grounds of Islamic radical for years, particularly in Belgium and France.xviii
Cases of church, school and businesses robberies in Cologne, Germany between August 2011 and November 2014 were believed to have been the handiwork of Daesh operators to support the Islamist fighters.xix The criminal linkages of the so called Islamist jihadists was also established by Robin Symcox who in his study linked at least 22% of individuals involved in 32 Daesh related plots in the west between July 2014 and August 2015, with past criminal record.xx He also found that up to 29% of these individuals were converts to Islam.xxi What motivates the new converts and individuals with past criminal records to join the jihadists is a question social science scholars need to ponder.
Philosopher Eric Hoffer, way back in 1951 in his treatise The True Believer suggested that mass movements hold a special appeal to sinners, “a refuge from a guilty conscience and are custom made to fit the need of the criminal for the catharsis of his soul and for the exercise of his inclination and talents.” xxii Fresh converts, some surmise might fall victim to the ‘holier than the Pope’ syndrome or perhaps because they are perennial outsiders, hence doubly marginalized and prone to continually prove their new commitment that could push them to great extremes.xxiii
While most of the recruits belonging to this category come from Europe, young educated reasonably well off men from the non-Arab Muslim states also gravitate toward Daesh for similar reasons. The rising number of young Muslim women and girls leaving for Syria and Iraq to join Daesh is alarming and what is their motivation needs deeper study.
The third group belong to South Asia, primarily students and graduates from Deobandi Madrassahs many of which are financed by Saudi Arabia where the Salafi movement, a transnational religious-politico ideology based on a belief in violent jihadism is preached. Imbued with the concept of Salafi Jihadism and essentially untrained and unqualified to join the mainstream workforce, they are prone to being indoctrinated to become a supporter of the Daesh concept. Their inability to be gainfully employed in any other profession and their spirit to participate in a jihad make them ideal candidates for recruitment by the Daesh recruiters. These young men are selected, trained and finally shipped/transported clandestinely to Daesh territory by the Daesh recruiters, who are tech savvy and employ the social media skilfully to spread their message.
For the South Asian recruiters many of whom perform the duties of an Imam in a mosque or a part of the madrassah faculty it is a financially lucrative business as they are paid handsomely for their effort. Not surprisingly very few of them would volunteer themselves or their wards for the noble cause of martyrdom they so eloquently espouse for others – they prefer to motivate, indoctrinate and recruit the half-literate, unemployed madrassah trained young men to essentially serve as cannon fodder for Daesh.
Is Daesh a Friend or an Ally?
Daesh roots were established by al Zarqawi in 2006 when his al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was formed to take revenge on Al Maliki for the Sunni prosecution by his regime. Although AQI targeted both Iraqi Shias and the Coalition Forces, there is a question mark on the role of the CIA in their initial dealing with the AQI. In one of the unintended consequences of US invasion of Iraq in 2003 a Shia led government that took over control of Iraq after the fall of Saddam practically became an ally of Iran, much to the dismay of USA. To weaken the Iraqi-Irani nexus the CIA is suspected of encouraging or even promoting the Sunni uprising # and tolerated AQI initially until Zarqawi’s attacks on the Coalition Forces became intolerable and he was swiftly eliminated. The metamorphosis of AQI initially into a Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and then as ISIS (Daesh) is a repeat of the transformation of the Afghan Mujahideen, the US ally against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s, into the Afghan Taliban, the arch enemy of the US forces there. To paraphrase the famous Spanish sage and philosopher George Santayana ‘those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.’
A number of regional and international players are engaged in the current military operations against Daesh but unfortunately many are also in conflict with one another. Initially it was a straightforward battle between the Free Syrian Army (considered rebels by Syria) supported by USA and its NATO allies on one side in a bid to topple Assad’s regime in Syria and Assad’s Syria in league with Iran and Hezbollah on the other. With Daesh entering the fray and carving out a state through capture of Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian lands, Iraq, Kurds and Russia were sucked in. The battle for control over Syria between the Free Syrian Army and Assad’s Syria continues unabated and with the introduction of the Kurds, the ongoing Turkish operations against the Kurd separatists muddied the water further. It has created an anomalous situation where the distinction between friend and foe gets blurred.
In such a conundrum the intelligence agencies of each side are likely to be employed to covertly support the enemy of the enemy. When Daesh forces engage the Syrian/Iranian combine the possibility of the CIA covertly providing assistance to the Daesh military cannot be ruled out. Similarly for Turkey the Kurdish struggle for an independent homeland comprising parts of Turkey, Iraq and Syria is seen as a more immediate threat. Viewed from such a perspective, Turkey would not be averse to support Daesh in a Daesh – Kurd conflict.# The Russian airpower ostensibly deployed against Daesh is suspected of targeting the forces of the Free Syrian Army and its supporters instead.
The recent shooting down of a Russian Sukhoi SU-24 bomber along the Turkish –Syrian border by an F-16 fighter jet of the Turkish Air Force amply highlights the anomaly and the danger of conflict escalation: Russia was incensed and calling it a stab in the back blamed Turkey for shooting down their bomber and killing the pilot as he parachuted out of the stricken plane when it was in the process of attacking Daesh forces inside Syria. Turkey accused the Russian combat planes of violating the Turkish airspace in pursuit of the Syrian Turkmen Brigade opposed to Assad’s regime, instead of Daesh.xxiv A very dangerous situation that could have led to a serious military conflagration between NATO and Russia was avoided with the timely intervention of USA that resulted in Turkish expressing condolences over the incidentxxv but not an apology.
The relationship between Daesh and Israel is even more intriguing. Logic would suggest that Israel and Daesh should be mortal enemies. This is possibly true when viewed in the long term perspective but in the short term Hezbollah is considered the greater menace hence when Daesh is engaged in a deadly combat with Hezbollah, it would make sense for Israel to support the former. It would not be too farfetched to imagine a covert Israeli link up with Daesh in the latter’s assaults on Hezbollah with the belief that Daesh eventually would be eliminated by the combined weight of the world powers. There are credible reports of Israeli military personnel clandestinely meeting their opposite numbers from Daesh in a manner that would give the Israeli government the plausible deniability option should these come to light. A Mossad – Daesh collaboration, therefore, may be upgraded from possible to very probable.
Actions by USA and its Allies to Combat Daesh
Change in War Strategy by the Global Powers to Eliminate Daesh
Selection and maintenance of aim is the first and one of the cardinal principles of war. All war efforts lethal and non-lethal must focus on the achievement of the war objective. The US led Coalition has declared war on Daesh aiming to eliminate this violent terror group that has created a state on usurped lands belonging to Iraq and Syria. The Coalition strategy of the conduct of war unfortunately violates the basic war principle of selection and maintenance of aim.
The US led Coalition Forces are simultaneously engaged on two fronts in the war theatre – Daesh and Assad’s Syria. In the Syrian – US conflict the political aim is the removal of Bashar ul Assad while in the US – Daesh it is the total annihilation of the Daesh state. Syria is engaged in a do or die battle with Daesh to recover their lost territories/ wealth, and simultaneously the Syrian regime under Assad with the support of Iran and Russia is battling for survival against the US led Coalition. The war stakes for Syria and Iraq are very high as failure to oust Daesh from their prized territories would essentially result in their breakup. These are the two nations that have deployed their ground forces along with air power against Daesh. The US led Coalition war effort against Daesh is basically through the use of its potent air power and its reluctance to deploy its land forces is understandable from recent war history in the region. In the nature of subconventional war setting in Iraq and Syria, without “boots on ground” victory becomes elusive even for powerful states.
The current Iraqi/Kurdish land forces by themselves are not capable enough to rout Daesh even with the Coalition’s massive air support but a combination of land assaults by Syrian and Iraqi armies (including the Kurds) with US air power can do the job. If USA is serious about its aim of eradicating Daesh, Syria should be considered as an ally and not an adversary; or at the minimum the current military actions against Syria should cease until the selected aim of defeating Daesh is achieved. The Second World War witnessed the temporary alliance of the Allies and the USSR against the Axis until the total defeat of the latter. USA and USSR resumed their hostility even before the echoes of war victory in both quarters had effectively died down. Failure of the US led Coalition to do so would promote the feeling in the Muslim and Arab world that the declaration of war against Daesh by them is only a ploy and the real objective is to use Daesh to weaken both Hezbollah and Assad’s regime in Syria.
Considering that Daesh has spread its tentacles globally, carrying out terror attacks with nauseating frequency from the US West Coast to Indonesia in the East, failure by the world powers to reassess their war strategy against them would take the world focus away from global peace and progress towards conflicts and regression. In the Arab lands and rest of the Muslim World it is likely to lead to unmitigated disaster. In addition, the suspicion that USA and its military industrial complex has created the Daesh phenomenon or is using it to enhance survival of Israel and the enormous, almost scandalous profits derived from the sale of lethal weapons by its military – industrial complex to the developing nations in general and the Muslim world in particular will gain strength.
Non-lethal Actions needed to combat the Daesh Threat
Daesh is able to survive and fight because so far it has successfully generated enough money through various means. Studies have indicated that almost half of their income is derived from production and sale of oil in the black market from the oilfields under their occupation. Oil fields and oil producing infrastructures are vulnerable to air strikes and a concerted air campaign by the Coalition and the Russian air power can seriously degrade their income from oil sale. Complementing the lethal air employment with non-lethal strategies of ensuring UN mandated sanctions are effectively imposed and foreign source of funding curtailed would lead to a severe financial constraint resulting in weakening of the terror state, allowing the Syrian and Iraqi land forces to regain their lost territories with relative ease.
Until the annihilation of Daesh and marginalisation of the al Qaeda franchise, global terror raids at various scales by their sleeper cells will not be eliminated. Security measures and good intelligence can help prevent such attacks but despite all efforts some might escape the intelligence and security nets and succeed. In both the preventive measures that are adopted and the follow up actions after a terror raid great care must be exercised to avoid what the French Philosopher called the “boomerang effect”, where harsh and punitive management technique of containment of a crisis in a colony overseas is applied at the domestic level. This gives rise to what Dr. David Kilcullen calls as the “accidental guerrilla”.xxvi
Daesh Threat to Pakistan: Recommended Response
The Threat Matrix of Daesh
The existential threat to Pakistan from terror groups operating from within and abroad is more than a decade old. Most of them operating under the garb of religion had managed to establish a support base in the country that was large enough to operate with relative impunity. The Pakistan Army under its new chief General Raheel Sharif on assuming command had declared war on all shades of terror outfits removing any distinction from the home-grown TTP and the Taliban operating from the Pakistani soil. In June 2014, Operation Zarb e Azb, a full scale military campaign was launched against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Although a vast majority of the Pakistani public fully endorsed Operation Zarb e Azb, pockets of dissent still existed that continued to support the terror syndicates. It took the dastardly attack on the Army Public School in December 2014 to finally shake the public conscience and now there is a near unanimous of support for the military campaign.
The military action against the terror groups primarily focussed in the Tribal Areas of the country and has destroyed and dismantled their infrastructure and base of operations. Their ability to conduct major terror raids against the Pakistani security forces has been severely curtailed, however, a number of those who survived the military assault have escaped and taken refuge in the eastern provinces of Afghanistan that borders Pakistan. These groups with the covert assistance of the Afghan Intelligence and the Indian RAW infiltrate the porous Pakistan – Afghanistan border to carry out terror raids on soft targets, particularly in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – the reprehensible attack on the Bacha Khan University in Charsadda is their handiwork. Others melted away and have sought refuge in the cities and towns of Pakistan and along with their sleeper cells have initiated an Urban Warfare phase against the state. Currently the Pakistani security forces (military, paramilitary, intelligence agencies and the police) are simultaneously engaged in these two diverse fronts.
The across the border TTP elements under Mullah Fazlullahxxvii are operating with impunity with the tacit support of the Taliban. With the demise of the Taliban founder Mullah Omar and the introduction of the Daesh phenomenon in Afghanistanxxviii a serious battle for supremacy between the Afghan Taliban and Daesh supporters has erupted in Afghanistan. Reports of defection of Taliban foot soldiers and their mid-level Taliban leadership has surfaced in Afghanistan and also among the TTP. Notwithstanding the periodic denial by Pakistan’s interior ministry that the Daesh threat to the state is practically non-existent, there is enough empirical evidence to suggest otherwise. Reports of Pakistani young men and women slipping through the security networks and joining the Daesh Army have surfaced recently. Daesh recruitment effort through the social media is also on the rise.
Daesh and Taliban are the two sides of the same coin, both with the agenda of establishing an Islamic state based on the Sunni Salafi jurisprudence. While the Taliban aim is currently limited to Afghanistan, Daesh is more ambitious and after consolidation in Iraq, Syria and the Levant, it hopes to expand its empire to neighbouring Muslim states. Reports of Daesh supporters having taken over parts of the Khorasan province of Afghanistan have been received. Daesh, many analysts predict, could overtake the Taliban threat in neighbouring Afghanistan and can be ignored only at the peril of further endangering Pakistan’s national security.
The power struggle in Afghanistan appears to be degenerating into a three way fight: the Northern Alliance – the Taliban – and Daesh. Should either Daesh or Taliban finally succeed in toppling the rule of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, their focus would shift towards the Tribal Belts of Pakistan. Perhaps the Taliban facing the Daesh threat might consider extending a hand of cooperation with their fellow countrymen the Northern Alliance and the two could come to a compromise solution of power sharing. A rapprochement between the Taliban and the current government of the Northern Alliance is, therefore, in the best interest of Pakistan.
Measures by Pakistan to Counter the Daesh Threat
Daesh derives its strength from the real or perceived weaknesses of the ruling elites in majority of Muslim states across the globe. Endemic corruption, nepotism, lack or complete absence of public participation in governance and an ever widening gulf between the rich and the poor are some of the common features in most Muslim countries, including Pakistan. The promise of Daesh to provide justice to the masses, restore law and order and end corruption through establishment of a system based on their version of Salafi jihadism, however cruel and brutal it might be, has started to resonate with a section of the public driven to desperation by the wayward ways of their rulers.
Like the Taliban rule in Afghanistan from 1995 to 2001, Daesh commanders in the areas under their rule/subjugation are also reported to have reversed the deteriorating law and order situation, cracked down on corruption and are providing better justice to the citizens than the kind provided by the Iraqi or the Syrian governments before them. This is their most effective publicity tool to citizens of other Muslim countries who are suffering under the tyranny of their leaders. The first recommendation for Pakistan to address the Daesh threat would be to radically improve governance at all levels by coming down hard on corruption, increasing meaningful public participation by genuine devolution of power down to the grassroots level and finally ensuring justice and fair play in the application of law across the board. The Pakistani public would then remain loyal to the state and the government and would stop looking elsewhere for a Messiah in the garb of an Abu Bakr Baghdadi of Daesh, the late Osama bin laden and Mullah Omar or the current Taliban supremo Mullah Mansoor to come to their rescue.
Within the full spectrum of the population in Pakistan, the disenchanted country’s youth are particularly susceptible to the Daesh propaganda. The half literate madrassah students imbibed with a tunnel vision of religion pertaining to a particular sect and motivated to spread their version of the truth by any and all means possible, specifically those belonging to the Deobandi School of jurisprudence are the most vulnerable. One of the fallouts of the Mujahideen experiment of the 1980s was the Saudi Arabia’s formal and informal adoption of a number of Deobandi madrassahs across Pakistan, which were generously funded by them. The money doled out was subject to replacement of the entire Deobandi syllabus with the hardline Salafi teachings that consider anybody not adhering to their beliefs to be outside the fold of Islam against whom jihad in all forms is mandatory.
New madrassahs funded by Saudi Arabia based on the concept of Salafi jihadism also sprung up around the outskirts of the major cities of the country, particularly Karachi, their pupils comprising primarily of Afghan and FATA refugees. These graduates steeped into the teaching of Salafi jihadism became easy picking for the Daesh recruiters. While graduates from professional colleges and universities have also been known to have joined the Daesh rank, majority of foot soldiers migrating to become a part of the Daesh fighters are the Deobandi Saudi Arab funded madrassah graduates especially from the Southern Punjab.
Meaningful madrassah reforms are a must to stem the growth of Daesh sympathisers and supporters in the country. The state is cognizant of the danger and has promulgated a number of madrassah reforms, including registration of all such institutions, an audit of their finances, expunging any hate material directed towards other sects or religion from the syllabus, broadening their curriculum and ensuring no military training is imparted to their wards. The problem is implementation of the reforms because of fierce opposition by a large majority of local Muslim Ulemas backed by the religious parties like the JI and the JUI. A number of madrassahs still refuse to get themselves registered, fail to disclose their source of income, continue to preach hatred and clandestinely provide military training to their recruits and operate outside the purview and oversight of the state.
In a deeply conservative Pakistani society, the state has to be very careful in handling the sensitive subject of madrassah reforms. Some steps like registration, audit of finances, removal of hate material from the curriculum and complete cessation of any military training have to be implemented without delay and without exception and by force if necessary. The religious parties do concede that these steps are necessary as long as, from their viewpoint, they are accomplished without affecting the basic madrassah status and focus of principally being a religious seminary. The revision of syllabus to make it more broad-based to improve the curriculum to better prepare the students for other employment opportunities in the land and greater emphasis on the teaching of the Quran rather than concentration on mere recital of the Holy Scripture are necessary but these should be the long-term goals to be implemented with consensus of the Ulemas and the madrassah fraternity.
The rise of extremism in the professional colleges and universities of Pakistan is a cause for serious concern. Part of the problem stems from the national syllabus particularly its history, which over a period of time has been distorted to present a patently false or at best a very narrow vision of world events, a romantic mythology, as one sage puts it. Fed on such falsehood, college and university graduates entering real life with a myopic world vision are likely to get disenchanted and attracted to the Daesh values and beliefs. Earlier attempts to correct the distortions have been virtually throttled by a relatively small section of the society in the name of religion and patriotism while the silent majority watched and did little to prevent them. This is again a sensitive issue that needs to be resolved through deep introspection, discussions and dialogues among all sections of the society.
Student unions were very active in the first decade of the nation’s birth but were generally banned when the military was in power. With the return of the civilian rule the ban would be lifted. Student unions are the best nursery for grooming of future leadership of a nation in various tiers of governance as long as these are allowed to function without interference and influence of the political parties. Unfortunately the student unions in the country under the civilian rule have been heavily politicised. A forum for debate, discussion and peaceful resolution of issues through dialogue and discussion soon degenerated into violence and gunfights as the political sponsors of various unions armed their benefactors and supporters and encouraged them to resort to force to project and protect the party viewpoint. Students are the future of the country and those who have progressed through violent means are ill equipped to become future leaders of the state. This politicising of the student unions must cease through an act, or even constitutional amendment if necessary.
In conclusion, all the recommendations above fall under the purview of good governance. Where the writ of the state is implemented in a just and fair manner, the law of the land is applied equally, merit trumps all other considerations for employment opportunities and a lopsided distribution of national wealth is not permitted, Daesh or any other such threats will be kept at an arm’s length and at bay.
End Notes
i Jewish Virtual Library, The Islamic State Background, Page 6, Dec 2015, Retrieved from http://www.jewishvirtuallibrarv.org/jsource/Terrorism/ISISback.html accessed on 2015
ii Bacevich, Andrew J. “The petraeus Doctrine.” The Atlantic 0nline
Http://www.theatlantic.com/maqazine/archive/2008/10/the-petraeusdoctrine/6964/, Oct. 2008. Web. 31 Jan. 2010.
iii Peter Welby, what is ISIS, Nov 16, 2015
iv Ali Khedery, How ISIS came to be, Friday August 22, 2014
v CRETHIP_LETHI, the historical roots and stages in the development of ISIS, Winter 2014
vi Daniel Wagner and Alex Stout, why there is no stopping the funding of the Islamic State, retrieved from file:///C:/Users/1%6023/Desktop/ISI S%20papers/Why%20There%201s %20No%20Stoppinq%20the%20Fu nding%20of%20the%201slamic%20State.htm accessed on Jan 23, 2016
vii Ibid
viii Op Cit, the Islamic State Background,
ix Daily Sabah, Assad regime’s oil links to Daesh, Andolu Agency, Ankara, Dec 2, 2015, retrieved from http://www.dailysabah.com/syriancrisis/2015/12/02/assad-reqimesoil-links-to-daesh accessed on Jan 25, 2016.
x World View: Russia Accuses Turkey of ‘Industrial Scafe’ Oil Purchases from Islamic State, retrieved from http://www.breitbart.com/nationalsecurity/2015/11/27/world-view-russia-accuses-turkev-of-industriaI-seale-oil-purchases-from-isis/ accessed on Jan 25, 2015
xi Russia has ‘more proof’ ISIS oil routed through Turkey, Erdogan says he’ll resign if it’s true, retrieved from https://www.rt.com/news/324045-putin-erdogan-su-downing/ accessed on Jan 25, 2016
xii Ibid
xiii ”IHS Inc. is a company based in Douglas county Colorado USA that provides information and analysis to support decision-making process of government in industries such as aerospace, defence and security; automotive; chemical; energy; maritime and trade; and technology.
xiv Agency France Presse, Daesh earns $80 m a month but feeling the pinch now, Tue, Dec 8, 2015, retrieved from http://m.arabnews.com/content/1449526458969901600/Middle%20East accessed on Jan 25, 2015
xv Ibid
xvi Jamie Hansen-Lewis and Jacob N. Shapiro, understanding the Daesh economy, retrieved from file:///C:/Users/1%6023/Desktop/Un derstanding%20the%20Daesh%20Economy%20_%20HansenLewis%20_ %20Perspectives%20on%20Terrorism.htm accessed on Jan 25, 2015
xvii Anthony Faiola and Souad Mekhennet, the Islamic State creates a new type of jihadist: Part terrorist, part gangster, Washington Post, Dec 20, 2015
xviii Ibid
xix Ibid
xx Simon Cottee, Reborn into terrorism Jan 25, 2016, retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/isis-criminals-converts/426822/ accessed on Jan 26, 2016
xxi Ibid
xxii Eric Hoffer, the true believer: thoughts on the nature of mass movements, op cit, Simoon Cottee
xxiii Op cit, Simon Cottee
xxiv See Seumas Milne, now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq, retrieved from http://www.thequardian.com/commentis-free/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-Iraq, accessed on Jan 23, 2015. Seumas states: A year into the Syrian rebellion, the US and its allies weren’t only supporting and arming an opposition they knew to be dominated by extreme sectarian groups; they were prepared to countenance the creation of some sort of “Islamic state” – despite the “grave danger” to Iraq’s unity – as a Sunni buffer to weaken Syria.
xxv Brandon Turbeville, Captured Daesh Fighter Reveals Turkey’s Connection to ISIS, Predicts New 9111, Dec 29, 2015 retrieved from http://www.activistpost.com/2015/12/ captured-daesh-fighter-reveals-turkeys-connection-to-isis-predicts-new-911.html accessed on Dec 23, 2015
xxvi https://en.wikipedia.orqfwiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoot-down, accessed on Jan 30, 2016
xxvii Ibid
xxviii Enza Ferreri, UN Reveals Israel’s Support for ISIS, Feb 13, 2015 retrieved from http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2015/02/un-reveals-israels-support-for-isis/accessed on Jan 23, 2015
xxix Dr. David Kilcullen, the CTAP Interview, by Dr. Doug Borer, CTX volume 5, No. 4, page 74.
xxx There are unconfirmed reports of a US drone strike in eastern Afghanistan that has eliminated the TTP supreme along with his son. These have not yet been substantiated with any credible source.
xxxi Many earlier supporters of the Afghan Taliban have reportedly defected to Daesh especially in the Khorasan province which has been declared as a part of the Daesh Caliphate.
