Introduction
According to the renowned structural realist, John J Mearsheimer, the Chinese economic and military rise in the 21st century would not be peaceful; the US would employ all means, fair or foul, to contain and impede China from challenging the long-lasting American hegemony in the world. The competition between the two has awakened a dormant Cold War atmosphere in certain regions in the world. The major flashpoints where China and America are presently immersed in a cut-throat competition include the Far East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. In these regions, the US has already established enough military bases which could immensely assist her in containing the ever-rising China. The powerful communist state is also engaged in increasing its economic engagement and military presence in the afore-mentioned regions. The unfolding competition has instigated a Cold War between China and the US whose intensity would increase in the foreseeable future given the markedly divergent interests of both countries. The imminent New Cold War would create both marvelous opportunities and mounting challenges for developing countries. The article analyses the Chinese economic boom and military rise in Asia and Africa and the counter-China strategies crafted by the US. Moreover, it also discusses the impacts and implications of the unfolding New Cold War on Pakistan.
From Capitol Hill to the Pentagon, all American main decision-making quarters are heavily engaged in crafting strategies on how to geo-strategically and geo-economically encircle, counteract and impede China, thus slowing down the Chinese economic expansion and military powerfulness. Though the ongoing Chinese rise is relatively peaceful and not designed to challenge the dwindling US dominance in the world, the powerful communist state is still fully prepared and sufficiently equipped to promptly respond to any aggressive American posturing against its burgeoning national interests across the world.
The US is a staunch follower of Hans J. Morgenthau’s underlying principles on neo-realism. Since the end of the fatal World War Second, these fundamental ideas of realism have been the guiding bedrocks of American expansionist foreign policy. “These principles include, inter alia, maximizing national interests, national security, national prestige, maintaining the balance of power with adversaries and capitalizing all means to maintain and make the hegemony unchallengeable by weakening the rival.”i Through the old Cold War against the erstwhile Soviet Union, the US policy of encircling and containing USSR was mainly premised on the above-mentioned postulates of realism. Due to these policies, the US succeeded in slowly but steadily weakening the USSR on the economic and military fronts, which ended up with the fateful disintegration of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
After the dismemberment of the USSR and the fall of the long-lasting bipolar system, the US became the sole disruptive world’s superpower for almost two decades. In the ensuing unipolar world order, for its national interests, the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003, and Libya in 2011 and is currently engrossed in fomenting civil war in Syria and shoring up nationalists in Taiwan and Hong Kong against the territorial sovereignty and integrity of mainland China. In the Far East Asia, China has fully grasped the underhand objectives of immense military and economic assistance afforded by the US to some regional powers against the interests of China.
Far East Asia
In the restive South China Sea, China is having territorial disputes and maritime claims with other South-East Asian countries, namely Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam over the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, the Pratas Islands, the Maccles field Bank and the Scarborough Shoal. There are precious minerals, natural gas and oil deposits on and under the seafloor of these islands. For its national security and commercial interest, China is also building military, naval and air bases on some of these highly disputed isles. A number of artificial islands have also been constructed for Chinese military objectives.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant due to the competing territorial and jurisdictional claims by the above-mentioned countries, particularly over rights to exploit the region’s possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue, especially between the US and China over the right of US military vessels to operate in China’s two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping and being shaped by rising apprehensions about the growth of China’s military power and its regional intentions. To further maximize these objectives, China has embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that would put US forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially denying access to the US Navy in the western Pacific.
The US considers such strategic moves by China a severe threat to the security of its regional allies and also to its declining role as a provider of regional and global stability. Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia, Center for Strategic and International Studies, opines that “of the many conceivable contingencies involving an armed clash in the South China Sea, three especially threaten US interests and could potentially prompt the US to use force. First, The most likely and dangerous contingency is a clash stemming from US military operations within China’s EEZ that provokes an armed Chinese response. The US holds that nothing in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or state practice negates the right of military forces of all nations to conduct military activities in EEZs without coastal state notice or consent. China insists that reconnaissance activities undertaken without prior notification and without permission of the coastal state violate Chinese domestic law and international law. China routinely intercepts US reconnaissance flights conducted in its EEZ and periodically does so in aggressive ways that increase the risk of an accident similar to the April 2001 collision of a US EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese F-8 fighter jet near Hainan Island.ii
A comparable maritime incident could be triggered by Chinese vessels harassing a US Navy surveillance ship operating in its EEZ, such as occurred in the 2009 incidents involving the USNS Impeccable and the USNS Victorious. The large growth of Chinese submarines has also increased the danger of an incident, such as when a Chinese submarine collided with a US destroyer’s towed sonar array in June 2009. Since neither US reconnaissance aircraft nor ocean surveillance vessels are armed, the US might respond to dangerous behavior by Chinese planes or ships by dispatching armed escorts. A miscalculation or misunderstanding could then result in a deadly exchange of fire, leading to further military escalation and precipitating a major political crisis. Rising US China mistrust and intensifying bilateral strategic competition would likely make managing such a crisis more difficult.”iii
A second contingency involves conflict between China and the Philippines over natural gas deposits, especially in the disputed area of Reed Bank, located eighty nautical miles from Palawan. Oil survey ships operating in Reed Bank under contract have increasingly been harassed by Chinese vessels. Reportedly, the United Kingdom-based Forum Energy plans to start drilling for gas in Reed Bank this year, which could provoke an aggressive Chinese response. Forum Energy is only one of fifteen exploration contracts that Manila intends to offer over the next few years for offshore exploration near Palawan Island. Reed Bank is a red line for the Philippines, so this contingency could quickly escalate to violence if China intervened to halt the drilling.iv
The US could be drawn into a China-Philippines conflict because of its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. The treaty states, “Each party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”v American officials insist that Washington does not take sides in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and refuse to comment on how the US might respond to Chinese aggression in contested waters. “Nevertheless, an apparent gap exists between American views of US obligations and Manila’s expectations. In mid-June 2011, a Filipino presidential spokesperson stated that in the event of armed conflict with China, Manila expected the United States would come to its aid. Statements by senior US officials may have inadvertently led Manila to conclude that the US would provide military assistance if China attacked Filipino forces in the disputed Spratly Islands.”vi
With improving political and military ties between Manila and Washington, including a pending agreement to expand U.S. access to Filipino ports and airfields to refuel and service its warships and planes, the US would have a great deal at stake in a China-Philippines contingency. Failure to respond would not only set back US relations with the Philippines but would also potentially undermine US credibility in the region with its allies and partners more broadly. A US decision to dispatch naval ships to the area, however, would risk a US-China naval confrontation.vii
Disputes between China and Vietnam over seismic surveys or drilling for oil and gas could also trigger an armed clash for a third contingency. China has harassed Petro Vietnam oil survey ships in the past that were searching for oil and gas deposits in Vietnam’s EEZ. In 2011, Hanoi accused China of deliberately severing the cables of an oil and gas survey vessel in two separate instances. Although the Vietnamese did not respond with force, they did not back down and Hanoi pledged to continue its efforts to exploit new fields despite warnings from Beijing. Budding US-Vietnam relations could embolden Hanoi to be more confrontational with China on the South China Sea issue.
The US could also be drawn into a conflict between China and Vietnam. In a scenario of Chinese provocation, the US might opt to dispatch naval vessels to the area to signal its interest in regional peace and stability. Vietnam, and possibly other nations, could also request US assistance in such circumstances. Should the US become involved, subsequent actions by China or a miscalculation among the forces present could result in the exchange of fire. In another possible scenario, an attack by China on vessels or rigs operated by an American company exploring or drilling for hydrocarbons could quickly involve the United States, especially if American lives were endangered or lost. ExxonMobil has plans to conduct exploratory drilling off Vietnam, making this an existential danger.
Furthermore, to counter China’s growing presence in the region, the US has adopted ‘strategic hedging’: It has recalibrated its ‘pivot’ towards the Asia-Pacific region, lethally armed its regional allies and deliberately violated the Chinese Exclusive Economic Zones time and again. Both the countries have also hurled threats against each other in the restless region. To weaken the Chinese position, the US has also been vociferously and blatantly supporting the nationalists in Hong Kong and Taiwan for their independence from mainland China. The US policy in response to the Chinese military and naval measures in the South China Sea is that of calculated confrontation rather than cooperation. If such widening distrust and ominous bellicosity were to continue unhindered, there could be a limited confrontation between China and the US, with the potential of escalating into a dangerous war in the disputed waters of the region.
South Asia
In South Asia, it seems that China has mostly outsmarted the US through its ongoing peaceful regional connectivity initiatives. The Chinese string of pearls strategy, stretching from the South China Sea to South Asia, has made China the main trade and defence partner of some of the littoral countries of the region. This strategy is composed of a string of “networks of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines of communication, which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan. The sea lines run through several major maritime choke points such as the Strait of Mandeb, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz and the Lombok Strait, as well as other strategic maritime centers in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Somalia.”viii The emergence of the string of pearls is indicative of China’s growing geopolitical influence through concerted efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, expand and modernize military forces, and foster stronger diplomatic relationships with trading partners.
Moreover, the Chinese Silk Road, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China’s growing presence in Afghanistan have become real bugbears for the American’s long-lasting military and economic dominance of South Asia.
Being an ardent realist, the US will not easily permit China to challenge its hegemony in South Asia. In this context, the US has calibrated some long term counter-China policies to encircle and weaken the ever-rising influence of China in the region. The US has tried to counteract the Chinese influence in South Asia through its invasions of Afghanistan (in 2001) and Iraq (in 2003), its nuclear partnership with India and the recent nuclear deal with Iran. Since China has a heavy presence in the sea ports of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the response from the Chinese government to any future threat to its economic and military objectives would be befitting, prompt and harsh.
The Middle East
China is the only trustworthy power to have emerged as an alternative to the Middle Eastern countries, after the US’s dismal failure to fix some of their regional security issues. The US policy of regime change, its failure to root out Daesh and remove the beleaguered Bashar al-Assad and the Iran nuclear deal have compelled some of the oil-rich Arab monarchies to look towards China for their economic and military objectives. Through its astute diplomacy, China has grabbed the opportunity by both hands and created a win-win situation: it is not only importing substantial energy resources from the Middle East, but it is also exporting economic products and arms to some Arab countries.
After the ransacking of the Saudi embassy in Tehran, Chinese President Xi Jinping dispatched his Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Ming to both Tehran and Riyadh, urging both sides to exercise calm. On January 23, Chinese President Xi Jinping became the first world leader to visit Iran after the deal. Xi stated that he sought to open a “new chapter” in China’s relations with Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “The Islamic Republic will never forget China’s cooperation during [the] sanctions era.” Xi’s trip to the region which also included stops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia was a continuation of Beijing’s increased involvement in the Middle East.ix It may be less dramatic than other great powers’ forays into the region, but it is no less significant. It signals that Washington’s decades-long period of unchallenged preeminence in the Middle East is drawing to a close.
China’s commercial ambitions in the Middle East are fast expanding. As the US becomes increasingly energy self-sufficient, China has moved in the opposite direction. It is projected to overtake the US as the world’s largest energy consumer by 2030, as its demand for imported oil grows from six million barrels per day to 13 million by 2035.x Fifty-two percent of China’s oil imports come from the Gulf region, which China also needs for tapping new markets to produce its goods, invest its capital, and secure new labor. It is in this context that China has articulated its Middle East strategy, focusing on areas of energy cooperation and infrastructure investment. It has sought to integrate the region into its One Belt One Road initiative, which Xi announced in 2013 and which would connect China with Eurasia.
China has also offered its lower-priced Predator knockoff, the Wing Loong, to the UAE. Beijing reportedly offered arms to the former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi even as it declined to block a UN Security Council resolution that permitted international air strikes. To the disadvantage of America, China has also begun deploying its military more frequently in the region. For example, in May 2015, China announced that it would hold naval exercises with Russia in the Mediterranean. Chinese fighter jets have also refueled in Iran, the first foreign military units permitted on Iranian soil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Chinese warships have made port calls in both Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen have likewise threatened Chinese workers who are engaged in infrastructure, energy, and other projects in the region. In 2011, China was forced to evacuate 35,000 Chinese nationals from Libya when the country dissolved into civil war. That experience most likely underscored for Chinese leaders the value of forward-deployed naval assets and added momentum to Beijing’s drive to build a naval facility in Djibouti—its first overseas base.xi
To obstruct the growing Chinese engagement with the Middle East, the US is secretly supporting terrorist and militant groups, rebels and proxies in Iraq, Syria and Libya, in order to make the region insecure and unstable so that China cannot expand its economic and defence ties. Such marked divergences in the US counter-strategy against China do not bode well for the militancy-hit region. It would create an ever-increasing arms race and embolden the lethally-armed Arab states to brutally crush any pro-democracy movements.
Central Asia
China’s strategic relationship with Central Asia has grown expansively over the past decade, symbolized by both the 1996 founding of the “Shanghai Five,” which in June 2001 became the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and with the signing of the China-Russia Friendship Treaty in July 2001. The events of September 11, 2001, and the US-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond have dramatically underscored the strategic value of Central Asia to the West and present new challenges and opportunities to Chinese security, political, and economic interests. Geostrategically connected with Central Asia, China will remain an integral and increasingly influential player in the region. It is immersed in building gas, oil pipelines and transport connectivity with most of the Central Asia states for its energy needs. For its economic interests, China is also inclined to “establish direct rail line between Ukraine and China, cutting across Georgia, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan. An iron silk road has been established that will track the old silk routes.”xii Through Xi’s “One Belt One Road” vision, China can now go cleanly across Eurasia.
The resource-rich Central Asia is a potential place of competing foreign interests, especially for the US and China. Both the powers are indirectly competitive with one another for influence in Central Asia .While the US is focused on maintaining and supporting its military forces in neighboring states, China has its sights on procuring natural resources for its fast-growing economy and preventing the expansion of fundamentalist Islam inside its borders.xiii
The US is apprehensive that if China continues capitalising on the potential energy resources of the Central Asian Regions (CARs), it would outmanoeuvre the US economically in the world. The US’s all-out support to the mujahideen against the erstwhile Soviet Union, its invasion of Afghanistan and the conclusion of the Bilateral Security Agreement with Afghanistan, strategic nuclear partnership with India, the recent historic nuclear deal with Iran and Nato’s expansion into Eastern Europe are designed to attain a major geostrategic objective in the new great game being played in the energy-rich Central Asia. To challenge China in Central Asia, the US has been lending a hand to Indo-Iranian efforts to connect the Chabahar port to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Africa
Unlike the previous Cold War, this time it is also likely that the US, its Western allies and Indian would use Africa. It is the first time in the world’s history that a non-European power has outsmarted European countries in the African continent, through its burgeoning economic cooperation with African countries. Presently, thousands of Chinese companies are working in different sectors in Africa. It is unbearable for the West, particularly for the US, to allow China to dominate African enormous natural resources, potential markets and defence field. Arguably, terrorism and militancy in the continent would be further fuelled by the West to create escalating issues for Chinese companies in Africa.
On the economic and trade front, with the accelerated upgrade of China-Africa economic and trade cooperation, China-US competition in this regard will tend to be more fierce. The Chinese enterprises have challenged the traditional domination of the US and Europe, potentially leading to conflicts of interests. Since Chinese companies like ZTE and Huawei are gaining ground in the African market at the expense of the US and European companies, those countries are naturally worried about other Chinese enterprises emerging in various sectors. They have started to take counter-measures by resorting to their influence to make new rules and standards. Recently, China has made great strides in African peace and security areas, and this breakthrough in Chinese foreign policy has aroused widespread concern in U.S. strategic circles that China will make its first breakthrough upturning US global hegemony in Africa, the weakest link of America’s global strategy .China would provide $100 million in military assistance to the African Union in the next five years to support the establishment of an African standby force and to boost its capacity for crisis response. Compared with economic and trade concerns, US officials are more sensitive to military and security issues. The US has expressed resentment towards Djibouti’s strengthening cooperation with China. One official from the US Department of Defense commented that China’s increasing trade and military activities in Djibouti would endanger the intelligence-gathering work of the US and would pressure the US to move its military base. Concerning the second question, it should be noted that in certain sensitive and vital fields, the competition between China and the US is unavoidable and could even intensify.xiv
Europe
It is a bit surprising that Chinese companies and products have gained a strong position in the European and American markets. Some of these highly-industrialized countries are concerned about the rapid expansion and penetration of Chinese enterprises, which have ominously threatened all local industries. Predictably, the West would very soon embark upon imposing obstructive tariffs on all sorts of Chinese products, so as to protect their national enterprises. Therefore, China will react in the same way, which would result in unfriendly relations and create mutual distrust and acrimony.
There is no doubt that China is engaged in a peaceful economic boom and military rise. But it is imperative for the Chinese government to grasp the underhand objectives of the US and its Western partners. After taking into consideration the disruptive designs of the West against China, the Chinese leadership should prepare itself both economically and militarily, so that it can be potent enough to respond to the US equally and on all fronts, thus ensuring its own socio-economic prosperity.
Impacts on Pakistan
Due to its strategic and unique geographical location, Pakistan cannot escape from the unfolding New Cold War between China and America. Almost like the previous Cold War between the former USSR and the US, this would also bring about a string of marvelous opportunities and mounting challenges for Pakistan in the near future. America with the clandestine Indian all-out support would capitalize on the soil of Pakistan as an active proxy battlefield to impede China from gaining an easy access to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf for its energy needs. Such a deliberate and blatant containment strategy against China would exacerbate and further complicate the low-intensity conflict in Balochistan and terrorism and militancy in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
According to some estimates, more than 50 percent Chinese energy requirements come from the Persian Gulf. To make the supply route of energy safe, easy, shorter and less expensive, China is immersed in constructing the CPEC with Pakistan that connects the deep sea port of Gwadar to Kashgar city of China. The US along with Indian and Iranian support would further fuel the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan aimed at obstructing China from taking advantage of Gwadar port and CPEC for its exports and imports purposes. It is quite astonishing that Iran in complicit with India is also involved in fomenting insurgency in Balochistan for its economic interests. The recent revelations of RAW spy Kulbhushan Jadhav about using Chabahar as an operating place for creating instability in Balochistan is quite a serious matter for Pakistan.
Apart from this, the US would fuel more ethnicity, sectarianism and terrorism in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces to create mounting troubles for all Chinese companies engaged in re-constructing and re-habilitating Afghanistan. Since these provinces are adjacent to Pakistan’s terrorism-stricken tribal areas, the spill-over effects of American game in Afghanistan would exacerbate and further increase terrorism and militancy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Moreover, the US has also provided enough space to the rampaging Daesh in Afghanistan to expand and perpetuate its deadly terror meant to shed Chinese blood on the soil of Afghanistan. From Afghanistan, Daesh is believed to be posing a grave threat to the security and serenity of Pakistan. If the Islamic State completely penetrates Pakistan, it will complicate the task of the army, the operation Zarb–i-Azb against assorted groups of Taliban.
It is highly imperative for the Pakistan to take serious and prudent measures to not only hinder such destabilizing designs of the US with its partners, but also arrest and expose the well-trained and lethally-armed proxies of India and Iran. The recently-raised Special Security Division (SSD) by the army for the beefed-up security and protection of Gwadar and the CPEC is laudable and would prove effective.
Undoubtedly, the professional army will play its due constitutional role to provide foolproof security to the CPEC. However, the PML-N led federal government and the provincial setups should come forward, out of the politics of vested and sectional interests for the early completion and prodigious success of the regional connectivity plans as well as safeguard the country from the adverse impacts of the unfolding Cold War. The following measures must be taken for the greater national interests of the country:
The government should leave no stone unturned to resolve the deeply-seated leadership crisis of the country. The recently-exposed nexus between the politics and terrorism must be dealt seriously across the board. All office-bearers should be made competent, responsible and accountable so that the country would be internally ready and prepared to deal with any kind of external threat.
The highly politicized, incompetent, lethargic and poorly-equipped police force of the country should be depoliticized, made competent and adequately equipped to maintain robust internal security and law and order.
The government should appoint a permanent foreign minister capable of dealing with external matters so that he can represent the country in an effective way. The incompetent politicians under the influence and direction of the US must not interfere unnecessarily in the task of the elected minister. The directionless foreign policy of the country should be revisited and plausibly diversified in the best interest of the nation.
The government should stand with its trusted friend, China, through thick and thin while implementing the regional connectivity measures. All possible, legitimate and constitutional means should be employed to assist China in completing the connectivity initiatives such as CPEC, New Silk Road, the string of pearls and One Belt and One Road Policy.
Conclusion
The anarchic nature of the prevailing international system has emboldened and empowered the US to dominate the unipolar new world order as a disruptive hegemon since the 1990s. However, the rapid Chinese economic boom and military rise seem to have challenged the long-lasting American exceptional dominance in the Far East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and Africa. Such ever-increasing Chinese powerfulness is unacceptable to the US and is seen as a major threat to the dwindling American power at the global level. Therefore, the US is employing all means, fair or foul, to contain China and impede its dominating presence with the all-out assistance afforded by India. As a result, the brewing Sino-American rivalry has created a New Cold War between them in the above-mentioned regions. The New Cold War has brought about a slew of security challenges and issues for Pakistan. So, it is important for Pakistan to fully brace itself for the emerging security situation. Any negligence and indifference from the political side would bring about swelling security issues and obstructive challenges for the external policy of the country.
End Notes
iAyaz Ahmed, Japan’s new security bill – an appraisal, The News International, October 17, 2015, Karachi.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/68283-japans-new-security-bill-an-appraisal
iihttp://www.cfr.org/world/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883
iiiIbids
ivIbid
vhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_(United_States_%E2 %80%93_
Philippines)
vihttp://www.cfr.org/world/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883
viiIbid
viiihttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String_of_Pearls_(Indian_Ocean)
ixIbid
xIbid
xihttps://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016-01-24/chinas-middle-east-tour
xiihttp://chinaincentralasia.com/2016/02/29/chinas-new-silk-road-is-designed-to-cut-russia-out-of-eurasian-trade/
xiiihttp://nyupress.org/books/9781479841226/
xivhttp://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/strengthened-china-africa-cooperation-a-possible-escalation-of-china-u-s-competition/
