Introduction
In the sphere of ever-changing international relations, there are neither permanent friends nor enemies; it is only the national interests of a country which determine the nature and direction of its relations with the comity of nations. The accord on Iran’s nuclear programme announced in Vienna on July 14 proved this notion.i Despite decades of hostility and estrangement, the converging economic and strategic interests of Iran and America have compelled both countries to bury the hatchet and become friends once again. The unfolding regional politics after the nuclear deal is likely to instigate both marvelous opportunities and mounting challenges not only for the Middle East and South Asia, but also for the whole world. This article gives a short overview of the course of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. A brief summary about Iranian nuclear concessions aimed at making the long-drawn-out deal a success is also given. The article also analyses the economic opportunities and challenges which Iran could acquire and face in the post-sanctions period. The piece also critically discusses the US grand and secret objectives behind the Iran nuclear deal. Moreover, impacts of the deal on the arms race in the Middle East and on Pakistan are also discussed.
As regards the course of nuclear negotiations, formal dialogue toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program commenced with the adoption of the Joint Plan of Action, an interim agreement signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries in November 2013. For the next twenty months, Iran and the P5+1 countries engaged in negotiations and in April 2015, they agreed on an Iran nuclear deal framework for the final agreement and in July 2015, Iran and the P5+1 agreed to the plan.ii
Iran’s concessions
To make the deal a prodigious success, “Iran made major concessions to secure the deal while agreeing not to manufacture highly enriched uranium; remove two-thirds of its centrifuges; not to use its advanced centrifuges; give up 98 percent of its existing enriched uranium stockpile for 15 years; not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time; transform the Arak heavy water reactor to obstruct production of weapons-grade plutonium and not build other heavy water reactors for 15 years; put its entire nuclear fuel cycle under full-time IAEA inspections and provide managed access to suspicious locations and as required to clarify past nuclear activities.”iii
Due to the relentless diplomatic endeavour of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif under the leadership of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the US and the EU lifted a host of economic and financial sanctions on Iran on 17 January 2016. All that became possible primarily owing to Tehran’s fulfillment of stipulated requirements of the July 2015 nuclear deal signed with the P5+1. Apparently, the world market is now open and welcoming for Iran to rebalance and foster its sanction-hit economy, thus instigating socio-economic prosperity throughout the country.
Effects of sanctions on Iranian economy
The economic sanctions, isolation from the international banking system and the loss of oil revenues have severely stunted Iranian economic growth. Iran’s currency, the rial, has lost two-thirds of its value against the dollar since sanctions were tightened in 2011. According to the Word Bank, Iran’s GDP was 415.3 billion with estimated 1.5 percent growth in 2014, inflation stood at 23 percent, unemployment was 14.02 percent and the country has lost 160 billion in oil revenue since 2012 due to swelling economic sanctions.iv
Economic opportunities for Iran
Arguably, after the successful ratification of the nuclear agreement by the US, the post-sanction period will create a host of economic opportunities for Iran to reinvigorate its sanction-stricken economy, thereby bringing about economic prosperity on all fronts.
The agreement is of paramount importance economically for sanction-stricken Iran. As Iran re-enters the global economy, its consumer market of 78.5 million people will attract a number of international investments. By some estimates, Iran’s economy is expected to grow by an additional two percentage points of more than 5 percent GDP growth within a year. After an additional 18 months, GDP growth could well reach 8 percent.v
First, Iran has the fourth largest proven crude oil reserves in the world – estimated at 157.8 billion barrels. It already produces 2.8 million barrels per day. The International Energy Association forecasts that an end to sanctions will allow Iran to ramp up production by an additional 600,000 to 800,000 barrels per day within months, roughly four percent of global output.vi
Moreover, it has 30 million barrels oil ready to be sold direct after the lifting of the crushing sanctions. Besides, many international oil enterprises such as Norway’s Statoil and France’s Totalvii with advanced and sophisticated oil exploring and refining technology are desperately waiting to invest in the rich Iranian oil sector. Thereby, the Islamic Republic will not only amass billions of dollars in revenue but also acquire a golden opportunity to replace its outdated technology with the modern one.
Second, Iran possesses 1,187.3 trillion cubic feet gas reserves. At present, it is immersed in finalising a $100 billion oil and gas dealviii. The lifting of the sanctions would open export avenues for Iran to sell gas at competitive prices to China, Pakistan, India and the European Union. Presently, the EU is looking forward to the successful finalisation of the deal owing to a faltering supply of Russian oil and gas due to the former’s strategic incursion in Ukraine. Moreover, Iran might seek US oil and gas companies in joint ventures to expedite energy exploration.
Third, the severe economic sanctions have left Iran with an ageing national airline inadequate in terms of quality and quantity. “Iran’s transportation minister announced that the country would need to replace as many as 400 commercial aircraft over the next 10 years; that’s at least $20 billion in potential revenue for foreign aviation companies like Airbus and Boeing.”ix In the post-sanctions period, Iran will be able to purchase the needed airplanes.
Fourth, Iran lags far behind in terms of technology and innovation. Last year the total estimated technology market in Iran was only $4 billion.x The nuclear deal has induced a large number of mobile, computer and software companies to seek out Iranian partners and distributors to open their outlets in Iran. As a result, Iran’s tech market is expected to grow to 16 billion annually.
Fifth, from 2009 to 2013, more than 300,000 Iranians left the country in search of better opportunities abroad. Today, 25 percent of Iranians with a post-graduate degree live in developed OECD countries outside Iran. This is, by some estimates, the highest rate of ‘brain drain’ in the world. According to the World Bank, the Iranian economy loses out around $50 billion annually as indigenous talent looks elsewhere for work.xi However, removal of the crushing sanctions has created the ground for the country to persuade some educated Iranians to return home and engage in different sectors.
Sixth, the deal is also likely to lead to billions of dollars in investment by India in Iran’s southern port of Chabahar and the completion of the long-awaited Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline. The result would be an immediate infusion of billions of dollars into the Iranian economy and creation of jobs. It would also help Iran invest in infrastructure.
Lastly, Iran can also take advantage by fostering its economic relations with China. China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, which envisions a chain of energy, infrastructure, and maritime links from East Asia extending to Europe through the Middle East and Central Asia, is strategically important for Iran. Also, Iran’s location at the crossroads between these regions makes its participation in the initiative important for Beijing. “An Iranian deputy minister claimed last year that China had already pledged to double its infrastructure investment in Iran to $52 billion.”xii A good deal of that future investment by China may well focus on Iran’s energy sector. Prior to the imposition of oil export restrictions on Iran, Tehran was China’s third-largest supplier of crude oil.
The aforementioned opportunities would help Iran steer out its faltering economy from ruin by augmenting its stagnated GDP. That would provide it billions of dollars in oil and gas revenue, lower its skyrocketing inflation and double digit unemployment ratio; replace its outmoded technology with advanced ones; enhance its bargaining chip in the international market and stock the possibility of political unrest and agitation.
Iran’s internal economic challenges
Iran cannot, however, fully capitalise on the aforementioned advantages without bringing in needed economic reforms. At present, the Iranian economy is plagued by a plethora of internal challenges. “According to a 2015 survey by the Heritage Foundation, Iran ranked at 171 out of 186 countries surveyed for economic freedom”.xiii Moreover, rampant corruption has badly affected the economy; “Transparency International has ranked Iran at 136 out of 170 on the list of most corrupt countries.”xiv Lastly, the country is not economically competitive for investors to set up businesses; “it has recently been ranked at 83 out of 144 economies surveyed for global competitiveness”.xv The country needs to introduce far-reaching economic reforms in order to eradicate these barriers for the relentless economic boom.
The US interests behind the deal
After the historic Iran P5+1 nuclear deal, America also has a long list of political, economic, ideological and military objectives to attain. In this American game, Iran and India are likely to play the central role.
Historically speaking, the US made Iran, under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the powerful regional police to safeguard American interests in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. In this context, Iran was assigned a specific duty in the US-led Cento, and was given sophisticated US-made arms and nuclear reactors to assert its dominance. However, the Islamic Revolution in Iran turned these friends into sworn enemies.
Realistically speaking, the prime reasons for bilateral estrangement and antagonism coupled with crushing sanctions on Iran was partly owing to the Iranian ambition of building a nuclear bomb and partly due to Iran’s tilt towards Russia and China. It was the closer Sino-Iranian and Russo-Iranian ties which made the US more apprehensive and worried.
In this backdrop, the US had no choice but to conclude the long-lasting nuclear deal with Iran so as to once again bring Iran onto its regional bandwagon, and make the latter the regional police empowered to protect the US economic and military objectives.
First, the Obama administration has dismally failed to live up to its foreign policy objectives made during the 2012 election campaigns. Obama promised to obstruct Iran’s nuclear programme, shut down the CIA torture cell at Guantanamo Bay, draw dawn combat troops from war-torn Afghanistan, instigate political change in Syria against Assad, bring stability in Iraq and Libya and eliminate rampaging militancy and terrorism. Now, to silence the scathing Republicans and clear the way for Hillary Clinton, Obama concluded the deal with Iran.
Second, no American political party can come on the saddle without all-out assistance by the Jewish lobby, AIPAC. On the eve of elections, all presidential nominees, senators and members of the House of Representatives receive immense help from the AIPAC and, in turn, they pledge to safeguard Israel’s territorial integrity at any cost. ‘Since 1962, American military aid to Israel has amounted to nearly $100 billion. For the past decades, the United States has been regularly transferring aid of about $3 billion annually for Israel defense purposes.’xvi Today, Israel is a de facto nuclear power possessing air, sea and land nuclear capability due to the US assistance.
Since the major regional powers – Egypt and Saudi Arabia – are already US security partners, it was only Iran’s clandestine nuclear programme that posed the major threat to Israel’s security as observed during former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tenure. If Iran had acquired a nuclear warhead, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would have followed suit. Therefore, the Iran nuclear deal is another milestone for the US in terms of maintaining Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East.
Third, the historical competition between communism and capitalism for cultural dominance of the developing countries has been revived again. Both Russian and China have left indelible impacts of communism and socialism on the Iranian society. That has greatly helped Russia and China to dominate the region. This is totally unacceptable to the US. The nuclear accord has afforded America the chance to again westernise the minds of Iranians through propaganda.
Fourth, the abortive US policies of regime changes have created the monster of Daesh. Saudi Arabia has miserably failed to play any stabilising role in these countries. On the other side, Iran, with Russian and Hezbollah’s support, has successfully shored up the beleaguered Assad regime in Syria, the Shias in Iraq and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The US has realised that without Iranian assistance, it cannot bring stability in the region. Arguably, in the post-deal period, Washington will rely on Iran to fix the unfolding political and security crises in the Middle East. After the removal of arms-related sanctions on Iran, the US will also ramp up arms sales to Iran.
Fifth, the US is rather apprehensive of the rapid Chinese economic and military rise in the region. The CPEC, One Belt One Road Policy and the string pearls strategy of China have worried US policymakers. If China succeeds, it will outweigh the US economically and militarily in the world. On the Chinese regional rise, American, Indian and Iranian interests largely converge with one another. All fair and foul means will be used to obstruct Chinese access to the Middle East and Africa via the Gwadar Port.
Sixth, if Pakistan and China partner with Afghanistan and CARs through the CPEC in the future, the US’ covert objective behind invading Afghanistan and Indo-Iranian efforts of making Chahbahar port a success would become rather elusive. The US wishes to contain China in South Asia, Central Asia and in the Middle East, while India and Iran want to dominate Afghan and Central Asian energy resources and landlocked economies. To achieve these grand objectives, the US has befriended Iran and provided India unimpeded access to the international nuclear market so as to obstruct and encircle China.
Seventh, Vali Nasr in his book, ‘The Dispensable Nation’, and Edward Snowden in his revelations have warned Pakistan repeatedly that the US is trying to shift its central focus from Afghanistan to Pakistan’s nuclear programme’.xvii The US is apprehensive that non-state actors could access Pakistan’s’ nuclear material and the Americans would never be able to fulfill the dream of a greater Israel in the Middle East. Now, Pak-Saudi defence cooperation will be misrepresented to Iran so that it provides access to the US to monitor Pakistan’s nuclear programme.
Despite the discovery of vast reserves of shale gas, the US will continue to import energy from the Middle East. Since Iran possess a substantial amount of oil and gas, the US with other European partners will systematically strive to dominate the Iranian energy market. That will not only help foster US-Iran ties, it will also squeeze the Iranian energy market for China.
Arms race in the Middle East
US Secretary of State John Kerry announced in Doha on 3 August that Washington would speed up arms sales to the Gulf States. In the midst of the ongoing nuclear deal struck between the P5+1 and Iran in Vienna on July 14, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordon, Egypt and Israel have all increased defense spending in recent months to purchase fighter planes, combat helicopters, warships, missiles, battle tanks and heavy artillery. They are apprehensive that the nuclear deal would free up billions of dollars in oil revenue for Tehran and thereby help her revitalize its economic and military footholds in the region.
Resultantly, the major global arms exporters, namely the US, Britain, France and Russia are engaged in ramping up arms sales to the turmoil- stricken Middle East. Some military strategists argue that the deal may well open up both conventional and nuclear armaments in the region. Arguably, the competing and divergent interests of the regional powers manifest that they would increase imports of sophisticated arms due to existing imbalance of power. As a result, the oil-rich region is expected to be a hot place of Cold War amongst Big Powers and flashpoint of armaments among Iran, Saudi Arabia and nuclear Israel.
In some cases, a military spending spree is already in progress. In recent months, the US has cut deals for more than $6 billion in military hardware with Israel and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies. But the American law passed by Congress in 2008 requires the US to maintain Israel’s military superiority over any potential enemy in the Middle East. Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, said that, “Whatever the US sells to the Gulf cannot be more advanced than what it sells to Israel.” To capitalize on this fear, US missile defense system makers such as Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have already been active in the region; Raytheon has inked $5 billion worth of missile defense equipment contracts since December, a sizable chunk of that in the Middle East.
Importantly, two regional powers, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia perceive each other from the realistic perspective. They have entirely divergent regional interests based on the premise of their national security and attainment of unmatchable regional powers. The House of Saud has been watching the developments with extreme caution and showing its annoyance over the talks from the start. In a post-sanctions scenario, an economically prosperous Iran with the least transparent possible military dimension of its nuclear program is perceived as a grave threat to the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia fears that Iran could use its oil wealth and new assets to arm various militant groups it supports in other countries, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia groups in Syria and Iraq and Houthi rebels in Yemen. On the other side, Iran is apprehensive that more major arms deals, which are on the horizon, would help the Arab monarchies to project power and dominate in the region to the disadvantage of the Iranian interests.
Saudi Arabia
As mentioned above, Saudi Arabia has increased all sorts of defence spending in the wake of the nuclear deal aimed at outstripping Iran militarily. Just weeks after the pact was announced, the kingdom signed up to buy 600 Patriot missiles from the United States at $5 billion and it is also expected to purchase 10 Sikorsky MH-60R naval helicopters. According to figures released in April 2015 by the Stockholm Institute Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Riyadh already became the fourth largest defense market in the world. Saudi Arabia’s spending rose by 14 per ent in 2013 from the previous year at $67 billion, it exceeded those of France, Japan and Britain for the first time. Over the following four years, the kingdom put $3 billion into Abrams tanks, Black Hawk helicopters and light armoured vehicles from the US. It also went on a European shopping spree: $4 billion in French helicopters, Euro fighter Typhoon aircraft, and a $2.8 billion deal to build a high-tech security fence on its border with Iraq.xviii
The Kingdom mostly buys American systems such as Hellfire missiles, LAV III armored vehicles, Sea Hawk helicopters, drones and F-15 fighter jets. At present, it is striving to get materialized some US pending arms deals which include 10 Sikorsky MH-60R helicopters and associated equipment valued at $1.9 billion, and another $1.75 billion transactions for up to 202 Lockheed Martin-built PAC-3 missiles. Since the US policy has frustrated Saudi leaders, they are increasingly turning to Chinese, Russian and European manufacturers to get more weapons.xix
On the nuclear front, the House of Saud has planned to expand its nuclear programme. “At the King Abdullah Atomic Energy City (KACARE), Saudi nuclear scientists have already carried out the strategic planning on a nuclear program, and plans are in place to spend around $80 billion over the next twenty years to build about sixteen nuclear power reactors in which Russia would play a contributing role.”xx
Established methods of producing plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) are already in place at KACARE, and several Saudi nuclear scientists have earned their PhD’s researching new forms of civil nuclear technology. In short, foundational work is well underway at KACARE to realize the three essentials to producing HEU: a nuclear fuel fabrication supply chain, the manufacture of centrifuges and related technologies and the storage of fuel and centrifuges in various stages of usability.xxi The Kingdom can also seek Pakistani technical cooperation in this field as a reward of its alleged financing of the Pakistani program in the past decade.
Iran
According to the nuclear deal, a UN conventional arms embargo on Tehran would be lifted within five years and Import restrictions on ballistic missile technology could be lifted within eight years. While the overall deal prevents Iran from obtaining conventional weapons for five years and missile technology for eight, seemingly taking Tehran out of any weapons build-up in the region.
Iran has 600,000 troops excluding reserves, 1,700 tanks, nearly 300 fighter and ground-attack planes, several hundred surface-to-air and ballistic missile launchers and a bevy of small fast boats. But it is still in a precarious security situation due to less spending on military compared to the combined Gulf nations.xxii According to the New York Times, Iran’s military budget is only about a tenth of the combined military budgets of the Sunni states and Israel. The Times says that the Arab Gulf nations spend a staggering $ 130 billion annually on defence while Iran’s annual military budget is about $ 15 billion.xxiii
Iran’s modern fighter is the MiG-29 delivered in the early 1990s. The rest of the fighter force includes aged US-supplied F-14s, F-4s, and F-5s, as well as Russian-supplied Su-24 attack jets and Dassault Aviation Mirage F-1ut, and most of them have remained grounded for lack of spare parts due to economic and military sanctions imposed by the US, the EU and the UN.xxiv However, there are fears that Russia will disregard the nuclear deal. In this context, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that Moscow would continue to supply arms to Tehran. In the foreseeable future, Iran will, however, focus more on its economic matters because the crushing economic sanctions have adversely impacted the Iranian economy.
UAE
Like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is also alarmed at the deal and resultant Iranian regional preponderance. “It has spent nearly $23 billion on defense in recent years. After the deal, it was likely that the US may begin to reduce its extensive support for the GCC, thus placing the UAE in a position of military vulnerability. Therefore, since then, the UAE has been holding a contract for more than 1,000 laser-guided bombs built by Boeing and Raytheon worth $130 million. Additionally, another potential $900 million deal for a dozen of Lockheed’s High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and 100 rockets is also on the table. Moreover, the UAE is expecting worth about $200 million of General Atomics Predator drones next year from the US. It could also purchase some F-16s from the US to boost its airpower.”xxv
Egypt and Jordan
An influential Iran is also feared by Egypt and Jordan. Egypt watches Iran with disdain and reservation on account of the latter’s aid to the Islamists in Egypt and in the Gaza Strip. Probably due to its uneasiness emanating from Iranian and Israeli power, Egypt sealed a nuclear deal with Russia in February 2015 to construct and operate its first ever nuclear reactor. Egypt also planned to buy Russia’s advanced S-300 air defence system in March 2015. Moreover, TASS, the Russian news agency, said that Egypt would receive the Antey-2500 missile system, an S-300 variant, and put the value of the contract at more than a billion dollars. Cairo could well increase its defence outgoings because the United States lifted its freeze on the annual military aid of $1.3 billion to Egypt in late March 2015.xxvi
In March 2015, Jordan also inked a $ 10 billion deal with Moscow to build the kingdom’s first nuclear power plant with two 1,000 megawatt reactors.xxvii In the future, if both the countries find Iran engaged in enriching uranium for the nuclear weapon, they will probably convert their civilian programmes into nuclear ones, hence nuclearising the turmoil-stricken Middle East.
Qatar
Qatar, another oil-rich Gulf country, is slowly expanding its military reach and influence around the region particularly owing to the re-entry of Iran in the regional affairs. It has inked a $17 billion contract for French-made Rafale fighter jets, and wants to buy Boeing F-15s. In 2014, Qatar dropped $11 billion on Apache helicopters and patriot and Javelin air-defense systems from some US defense companies, and in May 2015, it spent another $7 billion on French fighter jets to add to its growing arsenal.xxviii
By the military agreement signed between Turkey and Qatar in December 2014, the two countries agreed to exchange operational training experiences, cooperate in the defense industry and carry out joint military exercises. Turkey and Qatar will be able to use each other’s sea ports, airports, air space and military facilities, as well as share intelligence. They will also further foster their counter-terrorism cooperation. This military alliance will enable Qatar to boost the capacity of its defense industry and enhance its military experience, while diversifying its military partners in the region.
Bahrain
Bahrain has been fighting a Shiite revolt since 2011. It has increased its defense budget by 110 percent particularly fuelled by the threat from Iran. SIPRI predicts that Bahrain spends $ 2 billion and the US is the key military supplier to Manama. The country is expected to export more lethal arms from the US and other western arms exporters.
Israel
The Iran nuclear deal is not only a failure of Israeli’s foreign policy, it has also instigated security threats to the territorial integrity of the country. Owing to the deal, Israel has also increased it arms exports and defence expenditures. “The Jewish state spends about 16 billion dollars annually on its defence, plus the 3.0 billion it receives as US military grants. Israel is set to receive a $1.9 billion shipment of US weapons that many analysts see as a US effort to assuage Israeli concerns over the Iran deal. Approved in May 2015, the deal includes 250 AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, 50 BLU-113 bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating 20 feet of reinforced concrete and 3,000 Hellfire anti-armor missiles.”xxix
The Economist last year estimated Israel had 80 nuclear weapons in its arsenal. It had a triad of nuclear delivery systems. Israel’s US-supplied F-15 and F-16 aircraft can deliver nuclear weapons anywhere in the Middle East. France provided the early Israeli missile program with the technology for what is now the Jericho medium-range missile system. The latest version of the Jericho has a range of 5,000 kilometers, according to experts.xxx
According to Der Spiegel, a German magazine, Israel’s German-built submarines called Dolphins are equipped with nuclear-armed cruise missiles. Five Dolphins have been delivered so far, a sixth is due in 2017. They can target Iran from the Mediterranean and from the Arabian Sea. Moreover, Israel has the benefit of enormous amounts of American intelligence and military support, including more than $3 billion in grant aid every year.xxxi
The ongoing regional armament does not bode well for the tranquility and security of the Middle East. It would encourage Saudi Arabia and nuclear Israel to adopt a bellicose attitude towards Iran, thereby inducing her in jumping into the menacing arms race after the lifting of its sanctions. The possibility of confrontation is highly likely to ratchet up on account of more sophisticated weapons at the disposal of these potential powers. Resultantly, the region will be the strategic loser whereas the global arms exporting countries would be the ultimate winners.
Opportunities and implications for Pakistan
Since Pakistan and Iran already enjoy intimate cultural, historical, religious and economic relations, the deal would greatly help both the countries further increase these ties. After the lifting of sanctions by Pakistan on Iran, both have decided to increase bilateral economic trade to $ 5 billion in the next 5 years. The post-sanction Iranian market would also prove a profitable and competitive destination for Pakistan’s enterprises and entrepreneurs. More importantly, now the ground is clear for Pakistan to complete its portion of IP gas project. Gas received from the IP would help Pakistan generate around 4500 megawatts of electricity, and also meet its domestic gas shortages which occur mostly in winter. The country can also import inexpensive oil from neighboring Iran.
However, the nuclear deal has also created a slew of challenges for Pakistan, particularly for the burgeoning Sino-Pak relations pertaining to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The expected arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia would further worsen the already volatile security of the region, thus helping Daesh further spill over in the militancy-infested Pak-Afghan region. Ominously, both Iran and KSA will further fuel sectarian violence in Pakistan by lethally arming and financing their proxies in Balochistan and Punjab. Furthermore, to make Chabahar port a success, Iran along with India would stir up the low-intensity insurgency in Balochistan by supporting outlawed Baloch insurgent outfits calculated to obstruct and inhibit CPEC. In this regard, Uzair Bloch’s recent revelation about covert Iranian aid to create instability in Balochistan is a major case in point.
In this anarchic world, such US policy change in the region would instigate a string of challenges to the Sino-Pak relations. In this context, it is imperative for both China and Pakistan to complete the CPEC as soon as possible, and extend it to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Above all, all legitimate reservations of Balochistan should be resolved so that regional players would not fish in the troubled waters. Also, effective diplomacy should be used to neutralize Iran in this sinister game of the US-Indo bloc.
Conclusion
The successful conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal after some protracted negotiations is undoubtedly a great and significant foreign policy achievement for both Iran and the US. Iran made some major nuclear concessions to make the deal a success. As a result, the post-sanctions period has brought about a host of economic opportunities for Iran to reinvigorate its faltering economy by opening it to the world. In this context, the Islamic republic needs to prudently resolve some economic hurdles plaguing the country. The historic deal has also created a range of geo-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic opportunities for the US to maximize its grand regional objectives. For the militancy-hit Middle East, the deal has instigated an ominous arms race in the region that could exacerbate the already deteriorating security conditions of the region. The deal has also created some opportunities for Pakistan to expedite its economic growth and lower its threatening energy crisis. However, the Indo-Iranian bloc with the US’s support would create stumbling blocks for the CPEC.
End Notes
ihttp://www.pressreader.com/pakistan/pakistanobserver/20160119/281749858361183/TextView
iihttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negotiations_leading_to_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
iiiAyaz Ahmed, The Iran Nuclear Deal, The News International, Karachi, September 12, 2015 http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/62012-the-iran-nuclear-deal
ivIan Bremmer, 5 Ways the Nuclear Deal Will Revive Iran’s Economy, Time magazine, July 16, 2015 http://time.com/3961650/iran-nuclear-deal-economy/
vIbid
vihttp://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2015/07/17/five-ways-the-nuclear-deal-will-revive- irans-economy/
viiAyaz Ahmed, The Iran Nuclear Deal,
viiiAyaz Ahmed, Gwadar vs Chabahar, The News International, Karachi, October 11, 2015
ixIan Bremmer, 5 Ways the Nuclear Deal Will Revive Iran’s Economy,10 Ayaz Ahmed, The Iran nuclear deal
xGolnar Motevalli, Iran’s Brain Drain Is the West’s Gain, Bloomberg, May 9, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-08/irans-best-engineering-science-grads-take-skills-abroad
xiMichael Singh, The Sino-Iranian Tango: Why the Nuclear Deal Is Good for China, The Washington Institute, July 21, 2015 http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-sino-iranian-tango-why-the-nuclear-deal-is-good-for-china
xiihttp://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2015/book/index_2015.pdf
xiiihttp://tacstrat.com/content/index.php/2016/01/19/post-sanction-challenges-for-iran/
xivhttp://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2014-15.pdf
xvAyaz Ahmed, The game behind the deal, The News International, Karachi, February 17, 2016 http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/98808-The-game-behind-the-deal
xviAyaz Ahmed, US interest behind Iran Nuclear Deal, Pakistan Observer, Islamabad
xviiIbid
xviiiIbid
xixIbid
xxIbid
xxiIbid
xxiihttp://www.ipsnews.net/2015/07/mideast-arms-build-up-negative-fallout-from-iran-nuclear-deal/
xxiiiAyaz Ahmed, Iran Nuclear Deal: Arm Race in the Middle East , Frontier Post, Peshawar Aug 10, 2015
xxivIbid
xxvIbid
xxvihttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/03/russia-build-jordan-nuclear-power-plant-150324192954416.html
xxviiAyaz Ahmed, Iran Nuclear Deal: Arms Race in the Middle East
xxviiiIbid
xxixIbid
xxxhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/hi/contents/articles/originals/2015/07/israel-nuclear-weapons-intelligence-us-idf-npt.html
Contributed by:
Dr. Faisal Javed (is a PhD degree holder in International Relations. Currently he is Assistant Professor at the Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology (FUUAST), Karachi.
