Ongoing Saudi Arabia and Iran row has already created tsunami in the different capitals of the world. Mexican waves of shock and awe in the Gulf blowing are Cooperation (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA). With the passage of each day, chances of reconciliation, conflict resolution and diplomacy are dying. Prosecutions, protests, processions and pursuits of vested interests have produced serious dints in the GCC-Iran future relations. It may start of new era of “cold war” between GCC and Iran.
Two different philosophies, faiths, sects and the last but not the least, means of governances is now at tug-of-war. It has sever past, unpleasant present and fierce future. Now chances of more proxy’s wars in the region and around the globe are again intensified.
There are contain winners and of course losers too. It has 30 socio economic, geo-political and geo-srategic implications for the region and world too. The chess board of power politics has further divided the Middle East on the basis of ethnicity and sectarianism.
New alliances, allies, lines and pledges have already been drawn. Whole GCC and some important countries of even MENA have accepted Saudi’s narrative. Iran is heavily banking on Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain to regain some meaningful political mileage and strategic support against Saudi Arabia and GCC in the days to come. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Qatar and Oman have terminated its diplomatic ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia also suspended all flights to and from Iran. It has imposed socio-economic sanctions against Iran. It also sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council accusing Iranian authorities of failing in their duties to protect the Saudi embassy.
UAE Supports Kingdom
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it was downgrading its diplomatic relations with Iran. The UAE recalled its ambassador in Tehran and said it would also reduce the number of diplomats stationed in Iran. Sudan also expelled the Iranian ambassador and the entire Iranian diplomatic mission in the country. Sudan also recalled its ambassador from Iran.
Following are given probable losers owing the Saudi-Iranian spat
| Countries | Probabilities |
| Syria | It is feared that achieving peace and durable political solution of Syrian conflict would be hard to achieve. Iran’s refocus on Syria to teach a lesson to Saudi and its allies would bring more blood, destruction and delays in the days to come. Stalemate of peaceful negotiations would bring more human miseries, hunger, diseases etc. Syria would be dismantled into two or three smaller parts because of Iranian unwise political attitude. |
| Iraq | Recent series of protests against Saudi Arabia would deprive Iraq from Saudi financial and economic support in the future. It would destabilize its socio-economic progress, geo-political development and geo-strategic orientation in the days to come. There would be fiercer tussle between Iraqi government and ISIS in the future. |
| Yemen | Iran wants to prolong Yemen war because of its own geo-political and geo-strategic benefits and bounties. Saudi led Yemen war would be escalated. Saudi-Iranian camps would be further divided and destructive. |
| Lebanon | It is feared that Lebanon would be again epicenter of political uncertainty and civil unrest. Stakes are very high and overlapped of both the camps due to which its economic stability, and political sustainability is at stake. |
| Bahrain | It is prone to Iranian aggression through constant infiltration, scheme and conspiracy. It would also be at the receiving end because of the ongoing Saudi-Iran row in the region. |
| Iran | Iran has missed the train of socio-economic prosperity and better understanding with GCC and MENA because of its expansionist approach. West-Iran nuclear deal has been spoiled by it’s not so friendly and diplomatic gestures against GCC and MENA. It has already created sentiments of distrust, disbelief and dissatisfaction between the Iran and GCC/MENA. Iran badly needs new national narrative of “survival” and diplomatic posturing in the region. National policies based on hatred, conspiracy, ethnicity, intolerance, and the last but not the least sectarianism could only bring great chaos, displeasure and destruction to Iran. |
| USA | Widening conflict between Riyadh-Tehran would be great setback to US policies in the Middle East and MENA. Its primary concerns against ISIS would be accelerated. A divided and frustrated GCC/MENA would be a weak ally of the US against ISIS. |
| Stocks | All the regional stock exchanges have already suffered badly. Future prospects are still not so healthy and productive. Share markets were also rattled by rising tensions after Saudi Arabia executed a Shia cleric, and the price of gold rose 1 percent. |
GCC’s Strong Stance
All the countries of GCC showed solidarity with Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and strongly condemned Iran for its belligerent policies during a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Riyadh. Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir says Saudi Arabia may take more deterrent measures against Iran to check its foreign policy behavior and to contain its growing interference in the affairs of Arab states.
The GCC foreign ministers, in a statement lent their full support to any measure against Iran to halt Tehran’s “terrorist acts” and to ensure that it refrains from “meddling in the affairs of Arab nations.”
Riyadh also urged the Organization of Islamic Cooperation OIC) to convene an emergency meeting to discuss the Iranian attacks on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, said Al-Jubeir.
The foreign minister lambasted an, saying that “we cannot deal “the country that attacks and burns embassies. He said Iran has make a decision whether it stands and behaves like a civilized nation. “If it is a nation state, it should act like a responsible state. Not, it will be further isolated,” Said the minister.
Al-Jubeir said that the Kingdom would welcome the time and the opportunity to see Iran “act like a normal country” in the comity of nations. The GCC, as a bloc, also strong- condemns Iran’s meddling in the fraternal affairs of the Kingdom and he GCC. The GCC called on the international community to take serious measures against Iran to pre vent repetition of such attacks on diplomatic missions in the future.
Time and again, Saudi Arabia and the GCC showed their serious concerns about Iran’s constant incidents of infiltrations and meddling in the domestic affairs of the GCC, MENA and allies of Saudi Arabia. Recently, concluded West-Iran nuclear accord has further flared-up the relations between Iran and the GCC.
International Community
USA, EU, Turkey and Pakistan have already showed their serious worries and requested both the countries to settle their differences through dialogue and diplomacy. Saudi Arabia high official’s series of visits to Pakistan may create some meaningful outcome. Brewing Saudi-Iranian conflict has multiplier effects on Pakistan. Pakistan is cautiously playing its cards and waiting for some miracle to happen. But consensus is developing in the country that Pakistan should work to reduce tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with working for “unity” within the Muslim world. In the current climate, this seems to be a sensible approach. Nevertheless, Pakistan has taken a good step to show its willingness to join 34-Islamic Countries Military Alliance.
Every conflict has its winners too. ISIS, Israel, Russia, oil industry and the last but not the least, community markets are the clear winners in the emerging situation. Details are given below as:
| Countries | Probabilities |
| Israel | A politically divided, economically weak and geo-strategically venerable GCC/MENA is always more than welcomed in Israel. Despite most recent regional and world recognitions and supportive attitudes, Palestine would not achieve its desired goals in the days to come. Ongoing Saudi-Iran tussle has weakened its position of bargaining. |
| Russia | The biggest winner of ongoing Riyadh-Tehran spat is Russia. Russia’s militarily engagement in Syria, strong stance against ISIS, and supportive role in Libya and Iraq has transformed it as strategic asset in the GCC/MENA. By offering mediation Russia would out class US from the politics of the Middle East. Moscow is concerned about escalation of the situation in the Middle East with participation of the key regional players. Russia called on the Saudis and Iranians to “show restraint and to avoid any steps that might escalate the situation and raise tensions including interreligious ones. |
| ISIS | Ongoing tussle has further weakened recently established 34-Islamic Military Group. ISIS would gain more strategic mileage in the region. |
| Oil | Prevailing uncertainty has increased oil prices in the international markets. If situation prevails, oil industry would be a main benefactor. Oil prices have jumped as worsening relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran raised concerns about possible supply disruptions. Brent crude prices rose more than 3 percent. |
Visits of Saudi deputy crown prince and Defence & Foreign Ministers
Most recently, Saudi deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin Salman visited Pakistan and met with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif. During the different spells of dialogue it was agreed that the two countries would cooperate in developing an effective counter narrative to defeat the extremist mindset.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif assured Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Muhammad Bin Salman Pakistan’s support if any threat arises to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity. Moreover, the prime minister welcomed the Saudi initiative to establish a coalition of like- minded Islamic countries to counter terror ism and militancy and informed the deputy crown prince that Pakistan supports all efforts to counter terrorism and extremism.
Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif, met the visiting Saudi dignitary at General Headquarters and discussed matters related to regional security and defence cooperation.
During his meeting with Muhammad Bin Salman, the COAS said that Pakistan enjoys close and brotherly relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and attaches great importance to their security. COAS repeated that Pakistan holds its defence ties with the Kingdom in highest esteem and any threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity would evoke a strong response from Pakistan.
According to ISPR, Saudi Defence Minister also expressed similar thoughts and also appreciated Pakistan’s armed forces over their successes in fight against terrorism. The crown prince reaffirmed Kingdom’s full support to Pakistan’s position on all matters.
Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir also visited Islamabad for discussing Riyadh’s tensions with Tehran and the counter-terrorism coalition that Saudi Arabia had announced. Al-Jubeir met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is keen to use the two-day visit to defuse spiraling sectarian tension between the Sunni-majority kingdom and Shi’ite Iran.
“The Prime Minister called for (the) resolution of differences through peaceful means in the larger interest of the Muslim unity.” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir also met army Chief General Raheel Sharif and Sharif’s foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz.
The Tehran-Riyadh row, which was sparked by the execution of senior Saudi Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr on January 2, and thereafter exacerbated by the storming of Saudi missions by protesters. In Iran, shows no sign of being Resolved soon. As the crisis escalates, there has been little in the form of proactive diplomacy from the international community to calm cross-Gulf tensions, apart from appeals for restraint. Only Russia has offered to mediate. The UN must play a more visible role in cooling tempers as the Middle East cannot afford a Saudi Iranian conflagration.
Future Forecasts/ Scenarios
It is always difficult to forecast the future but prevailing socio-economic conditions, emerging geo political situations and geo-strategic scenarios cast different complex and complicated propositions in the GCC and MENA. Iran and Saudi Arabia are neither natural allies nor natural enemies, but natural rivals who have long competed as major oil producers.
(a) It is feared that clash of narratives between Saudi Arabia/GCC and Iran would further widen divide in the region. Its spillover effects would intensify proxy wars. It would start a new cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
(b) Both countries would likely prefer to continue vying for influence in other states Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria rather than break into direct conflict.
(c) Intensifying of sectarian conflict and its expression in Middle East geopolitics would be a frightening prospect indeed in the future.
(d) With the passage of time, Saudi accusations of Iran being a disruptive force would again more and more credibility in the region and around the globe.
(e) War of geopolitics, power and regional influence would be further deepened.
(f) Syria-Iran axis would be marginalized by dividing Syria to two-three parts with no role of President Bashar al-Assad in the future.
(g) Battel of survival would be fought indirectly on the soils of Lebanon where the spat had clouded the hopes of filling the vacant presidency that had been raised last month after Iran and Saudi Arabia both voiced support for a power-sharing deal.
(h) Tit-for-tat situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be worsened in Yemen because of Iranian vested interests. Iran is now backing Houthi rebels in the north of the country as Saudi Arabia backs the forces ousted Yemeni President a sour Hadi in the south. As many as 6,000 people have now been killed in the conflict in Yemen, which has fallen into a bloody and dangerous stalemate no end in sight.
(i) Iraq would be weaker, unstable and politically polarized because of widening bridge between two power players in the region. ISIS would take benefit from the divide and multiple it with so many multiplier effects within Iraq and beyond.
(j) Hot pursuits of nuclear power in the GCC.
(K) Prospects of arm race in the region would create regional tensions.
(l) GCC-Iran trade would be highest hit in the days to come.
(m) sponsored strategic ally of Iran Hamas would create troubles in the region.
(n) Saudi Arabia proposed Islamic military alliance would be further strengthened with the inclusion of Pakistan.
(o) Rise to non-state actors in the Middle East in the years to come.
(p) GCC collective security shield would be further equipped and proactive.
(q) UAE proposed joint police force would be trigged in the days to come for achieving better security, peace and intelligence sharing among the GCC states.
(r) Regional defence/military budgets would be further escalated in the days to come.
(s) Dim prospects of GCC strategic enlargement.
(t) Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco would be further dependent on others due to weak economies and looming political uncertainties.
(u) Levels of poverty and unemployment would be further increased especially in the MENA region. Moreover, numbers of immigrants would also be on the rise in the days to come.
(v) In the long run oil industry would feel the heat because of Saudi-Iran spat.
(w) Reformists would gain momentum in Iran. Outcome of this Iran’s parliament Elections 2016 would further make things clear.
(x) Socio-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic and more over, military role of Russia would be further strengthened in the politics of GCC and MENA in the days to come.
(y) Regional civil aviation industry would be in the line of fire.
(z) Media wars would be further intensified in the region. Role of social media would be more negative and based on hatred, intolerance, ethnicity and sectarianism.
Concluding Remarks
Ongoing tug-of-war between Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran would further weaken socio-economic prospects in the GCC and MENA. Power struggle and political domination are the hallmarks of Middle East which needs to be rationalized for the greater peace and harmony of the region and world alike. Mutual respect must be mantra of regional countries and any infiltration and interference in the internal affairs of GCC and MENA must also be dealt with iron hands.
Paramount stature of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the region and the world does not only based on distinctive narrative but it always cares about struggling people, helpless humanity, dialogue, diplomacy and development orientation. Its policies are not based on hatred and sectarianism as propagated by expansionist and disruptive forces. Its policies are based on regional reconciliation, harmony and peace. Its transcontinental goals are based on global peace, interfaith dialogue between the civilizations and the last but not the least, firm stance against non-state actors promoting terrorism and extremism.
