‘Influence of Sea Power on History’ is considered one of the ten books which have altered the course of history. The eminent US naval historian, Alfred Thayer Mahan has asserted in the book that maritime transportation is the most economical means of transportation. ‘As far as the 5th century BC, the Athenians were wealthier than the Spartans because Athens had a port, maritime fleet and a navy to protect it. Maritime powers are always wealthier than non-maritime neighbours, all other things same’.1
In the same context, an opportunity awaits for Pakistan in the form of the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). At the outset, the project is facing teething challenges at strategic and political level. The project is taking off amongst hostility by India, confusion created by dying political parties and efforts to win laurels by governing party. On the strategic level, Indian leadership has raised concerns about the project, however, their concerns have received befitting responses from Pakistani and Chinese leadership. At the domestic level the ruling party continues to term it as ‘game changer in the region’, while some opposition parties are using their remaining political clout to create confusion leading to hostility against the project. Thanks to All Parties Conference (APC) convened on the subject the government has clarified its position by presenting different options being pursued in construction of routes. The government has further confirmed that western route will be constructed on priority and subsequently other options will be pursued. Lately, all political parties have reiterated their ownership of the project in the long term interest of the nation.
Amidst this haze, hardly anything is being said about maritime aspects of the project. In the previous article, ‘Maritime Prospects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,’2 details of CPEC project were covered briefly and comparison was made with Suez and Panama Canal. The benefits of project on international maritime trade were found to be comparable with Suez and Panama Canal. It was highlighted that project will be beneficial for international maritime trade bound for China in the first phase and subsequently virtually landlocked states of Central Asia will also be benefited. The prospects of Gwadar becoming a trans-shipment port for the region were also discussed. It was asserted that trans-shipment of oil and LNG through Gwadar from distant ports inside Persian Gulf can boost the economy of those nations as well as provide better options of trade. In this article, maritime compulsions associated with the project have been discussed. These compulsions if ignored may hinder the smooth completion of the project. Similarly upon completion of CPEC, desired benefits may not be accrued if these compulsions are not given due attention.
To deliberate upon the maritime compulsions it is necessary to have maritime view of the project. Viewing from seaward side, the foremost compulsion is the stable maritime environment in North Arabian Sea to attract substantial amount of maritime trade towards Pakistani ports. Second major compulsion is smooth and efficient conduct of port operations to handle inbound and outbound maritime traffic. Only stable maritime environment is being deliberated in this article. Second compulsion will be deliberated in subsequent articles.
Stable maritime environment in the North Arabian Sea is the foremost requirement for the success of CPEC. North Arabian Sea can be defined as area in Arabian Sea north of 22 degree latitude. Within this area, the western half is of prime concern for the CPEC. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran on the western edge of Area of Concern (AoC) is the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow. About 17 million bbl/d oil passed through it in 2011, roughly 35% of all seaborne traded oil and almost 20% of oil traded worldwide’.3 Oman, UAE, Iran, and Pakistan are countries bordering our AoC. Pakistan maintains friendly relations with all these countries due to cultural/religious affinity and mutual respect. Maritime boundaries are agreed upon and there is no clash of interest between Pakistan and these nations. All these nations maintain significant maritime forces to safeguard their maritime interests and contribute towards stable maritime environment in the region.
On the western fringes of AoC, US NAVCENT in Bahrain is maintaining strong presence of maritime forces in Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Keeping in view the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb for maritime trade, at any given time 50 – 60 naval units from various nations across the globe are present in the area. These ships form part of various international, regional and national initiatives to maintain maritime order in the region in the wake of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The foremost among these is Coalition Forces Maritime Component Commander (CFMCC). He is the Commander of US Navy Central Command and US 5th Fleet, stationed in Bahrain overlooking the activity in the area. The major task forces in the area under CFMCC are Task Force (TF) – 150 and TF – 151. TF – 150 is responsible to counter terrorism, arms smuggling and drug trafficking in the area whereas TF-151 is responsible for counter piracy efforts in Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin. To safeguard its own maritime interests, Pakistan was the first amongst regional countries to join TF-150 in 2004 and TF-151 in 2009. Pakistan Navy ships regularly form part of both task forces. During the period of deployment, ships safeguard national maritime interests by naval manoeuvres with friendly navies and flag showing to reassure maritime community about their safety and security. The ships also visit regional ports for naval diplomacy. Due to professional competence in coalition operations, Pakistan Navy has commanded these task forces repeatedly.
On the eastern fringes of AoC, India is the major country with the world’s fifth largest navy, 12 major ports and 187 minor ports4. India is ranked eighth largest economy in 2015 and is estimated to climb to third position by 2030.5 In 2013, India was the fourth-largest consumer and net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the world after the United States, China, and Japan. The Middle East was the major source of crude oil supply to India in 2013, followed by countries in the Americas (mostly Venezuela) and Africa. Despite being a net importer of crude oil, India has become a net exporter of petroleum products after investing in new refinery capacity.6 Other than energy imports from Persian Gulf, development of Chahbahar port in Iran is a major concern for India. Indian ambitions are to develop Chahbahar port for ingress to Central Asia. In longer run, Chahbahar can compete with Gwadar.
The bird’s eye view of the AoC and discussion on capabilities of maritime forces necessitates deliberation upon Pakistan maritime forces. Pakistan maritime forces comprised of Pakistan Navy (PN), Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) and Pakistan Coast Guards (PCG). PN is a balanced force comprising air, surface, subsurface and land components. Due capability of operations in all mediums associated with sea, force is also called ‘Four Dimensional Force’. Since inception, PN has participated in international efforts to maintain stable maritime environment. Despite being a smaller navy, PN has maintained a global outlook through participation in international exercises, goodwill/ training cruises and naval manoeuvres around the globe. PN training and personnel have played major role in establishment of naval forces in brotherly countries of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Friendly countries send their personnel for basic and advanced training in PN institutions. Training and personnel assistance to these countries also help in maintaining close and cordial relations in maritime arena.
PMSA was established on 1st January 1987 for enforcement of national and international laws, policies and conventions at sea based on the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – 1982.7 Additionally, search and rescue at sea is also in domain of PMSA. Pakistan Coast Guards came into existence in 1972 to extend anti-smuggling operations along the coastline, for which sea customs was not adequate.8 PCG is responsible for enforcement of these laws on landward side of the maritime zones and within territorial waters (upto 12 NM from coast). Although in most of the countries, coast guards maintain seaborne and land based elements under the overall supervision of navy, however, in Pakistan two separate agencies are being used for this purpose. PMSA is manned by PN personnel on attachment and responsible for seaward side whereas PCG is manned by Pakistan Army personnel and some dedicated troops responsible for landward side.
The discussion on Pakistan maritime forces brings us to fundamental question; whether they are sufficiently manned and suitably equipped to maintain stable maritime environment astride Makran Coast for success of CPEC? It is considered that with present strength, these forces were able to safeguard major maritime infrastructure which lies in vicinity of Karachi Port and Port Muhammad Bin Qasim. However, after the completion of CPEC, vital maritime infrastructure will be constructed on western seaboard from Sonmiani to Jiwani with focus on Gwadar, and these forces are not sufficient to maintain stability in the AoC. Upon development of CPEC, enhancement in these forces will be required to counter any untoward incident in the AoC. Any instability in the area, whether caused by hostile forces in wartime or non-state actors in peace/wartime will undermine the smooth conduct of maritime trade in the area. The present strength of maritime forces is insufficient to safeguard vital maritime interests simultaneously in the eastern and western seaboard. Other than national responsibilities, Pakistan has international obligation to monitor and distribute navigational and meteorological warning in NAVAREA-IX and METAREA-IX. These areas extend from Pakistan – India borders to west including Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea upto Gulf of Suez. To undertake all these tasks in a befitting manner capacity and capability enhancement of these forces is required.
To deliberate upon augmentation required to meet future challenges, there is a need to have national and organizational level debate on the mission, roles and tasks and capability of these forces to avoid any gaps or duplication of efforts. Once their roles and tasks are finalized, capacity can be enhanced accordingly. In order to maintain stable maritime environment, there is a need to acquire long range land based, airborne and seaborne surveillance assets to keep an eye on the AoC. All these surveillance assets are to be linked with modern command and control centres to monitor the situation and generate effective response. To generate response against any anomaly in the maritime environment, more PN and PMSA units are required. These platforms will maintain presence in the AoC and safeguard maritime interests against acts of hostile nations and non state actors. Keeping in view the operation and maintenance cycle of maritime assets, 4 – 6 maritime surveillance aircraft, a squadron of destroyers/ frigates (4 – 6 ships) and 8 – 10 patrol boats are required to be stationed on western seaboard. At present, Karachi serves as major naval base and Ormara (360 KM west of Karachi; halfway between Karachi and Gwadar) is secondary naval base for PN. However, it is still in the development phase and stationing of additional assets in western seaboard demands early development of Ormara into full-fledged naval base.
Since Gwadar is being contemplated as a major cosmopolitan city to support the port activities, there is a need to develop Ormara as ‘Maritime City’ in vicinity of deep sea port of Gwadar. The Maritime City shall include maritime universities, maritime technical and vocational training facilities, fishery training institutes as well as ship construction and repair facilities. The infrastructure shall include facilities for research and development in marine sciences, marine biology, ship construction, naval architecture and related higher studies. Development of these facilities in Ormara will not only support maritime sector of CPEC, but it will also help Pakistan to exploit its maritime potentials by providing all the facilities relating to maritime arena in one city.
Enhancement of seaward elements of Pakistan maritime forces also require capacity enhancement of land based components and seamless integration of both components. The current arrangement of separate PMSA and PCG is unique in the world and was adopted due to numerical inferiority of maritime forces relative to land forces in early years of Pakistan. In order to regulate the maritime arena in a befitting manner, there is a need to merge PCG in PMSA under a unified command capable of implementing national fiscal, pollution and criminal regulations at sea and coast. This arrangement will contribute towards unity of effort for stable and regulated maritime environment in North Arabian Sea.
In conclusion, CPEC provides a unique opportunity to Pakistan to exploit its geo-economic strengths which are primarily hinged upon maritime arena. Although the project is about to start with full swing mired in confusion and hostility, there is a need to realize the maritime prospects and compulsions of the project. In order to fully benefit from the project, stable maritime environment in the North Arabian Sea is the foremost requirement. Prevailing environment in the area can be marred by hostile nations or non state actors loyal to them to undermine the project. This demands capacity enhancement in maritime forces of Pakistan in tandem with development of Gwadar Port and CPEC. There is a need to enhance land based, airborne and seaborne surveillance assets with command and control centres to monitor the environment in area of concern. Additional seaborne platforms are also required for PN and PMSA to maintain presence along Makran Coast and generate befitting response. In order to maintain effective control at sea and adjoining coastal regions against illegal activities, merger of PMSA and PCG under one authority is required according to modern practices. Any disregard to these maritime compulsions will facilitate hostile nations to undermine the true potential of CPEC project.
An excerpt from George Friedman’s book ‘The Next Hundred Years’ is relevant in this regard.
‘Having achieved the unprecedented feat of dominating all of the world’s oceans, United States obviously wanted to hold them. The simplest way to do this was to prevent other nations from building navies, and this could be done by making certain that no one was motivated to build navies – or had the resources to do so. One strategy, ‘the carrot’, is to make sure that everyone has access to sea without needing to build a navy. The other strategy, ‘the stick’, is to tie down potential enemies in land based confrontations so they are forced to exhaust their military dollars on troops and tanks with the little left for navies.’9
End Notes
1Friedman, George; The Next Hundred Years, P 24 – 25.
2Haider, Muhammad Zarrar; Maritime Prospects of China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Defence Journal, May 2015.
3Strait of Hormuz is chokepoint for 20% of world’s oil, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7830.
4Major and Minor Ports in India, http://www.marinebuzz.com/2009/01/26/major-and-minor-ports-in-india.
5These Will Be the World’s 20 Largest Economies in 2030, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/the-world-s-20-largest-economies-in-2030.
6India is increasingly dependent on imported fossil fuels as demand continues to rise. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17551
7Background of PMSA, http://www.msa.org.pk/His.html
8Pakistan Coast Guards, https://www.pakistanarmy.gov.pk/awpreview/textcontent.aspx?pid=156
9Friedman, George; The Next Hundred Years, P 45.
