Some interesting perceptions have emerged from the recent NA-246 by-elections, and subsequently elections for the Local Bodies (LBs) in 42 cantonments. Give Rangers credit, alongwith Karachi police they enforced extraordinary security arrangements. Given the MQM’s strength in organizing their voters in their stronghold, the NA election result was not a surprise. In contrast some voters of PTI (and even JI) went from one polling station to the other trying to find the right one where to cast their vote.
Describing the lack of voters enthusiasm in this constituency in the last general elections, Nabil Gabol accepted (after leaving the MQM) that out of the 150000 votes or so he got, most were stuffed into ballot boxes. Given the blanket security oversight not surprising that the MQM “vote bank” dropped drastically to a little more than 93000 this time around. “Overkill” by MQM is not necessary, their solid vote bank among the lower middle class in Karachi of Sindh, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, Sukkur will not dissipate easily despite the different travails of charismatic leader Altaf Hussain in UK. The hype created by the large election rallies organized by PTI and JI notwithstanding, a sweeping majority for the MQM was always in the cards. The Rangers “across the board” action greatly reduced the “coercion factor”, the “Apex Committee’s” no-nonsense curtailing of political influence to sway justice somewhat (and only somewhat) freeing the Karachi police to do their duty according to the dictates of law.
PTI’s getting nearly 20000 votes in the MQM stronghold was relatively a good performance. Forced to shed their complacency the MQM worked hard to show their actual electoral strength (93000 and not 150000) in a clean and fair fight. The strict security oversight and assurances notwithstanding, the voter turnout (34%) was less than expected. While the upper middle class voted mostly for PTI, “the fear factor” kept many such possible voters away, after all they have to keep on living in the same localities. In contrast the other parties could not mobilise their voting potential fully. National parties PML (N) and PPP did not even dare field candidates, they would have lost their deposits.
Give PTI supporters credit for having the courage to confront the MQM in its hard core constituency despite its own internal problems in Karachi, Ali Zaidi’s appointment as Karachi’s PTI leader last Dec 25 further divided the already polarized city organizational structure. JI was disappointing, one expected much better than the less than 10000 votes they got. While they could still not have won NA-246, a PTI-JI alliance would have done slightly better.
Could one get even a whiff of the political trend in the LB elections in the cantonments? There are 30 wards for 10 cantonment boards in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), 116 wards make up 21 cantonment boards in Punjab. 44 wards are there in Sindh for 8 cantonment boards while 9 wards make up the three cantonment areas in Balochistan, countrywide a grand total of 199 wards. Ormara Cantonment Board in Balochistan is not having LB elections because of demarcation problems. With around 1.87 million registered voters in the cantonments countrywide, 610 independents and 18 political parties fielding 541 candidates, approximately 635000 (34%) voted for candidates contested the polls held after a gap of 17 years. According to unofficial results, PML-N got 68, IND (55), PTI (42), MQM (19), PPPP (7), JI (6) and ANP (2) out of 199 seats.
PML (N) confirmed its popularity in their Punjab stronghold, the largest number of seats (44) (and 68 seats countrywide (34%)! Most PTI seats were obtained in KPK, they got only 9 in Punjab but did score heavily in second positions. PML (N) won outright in Lahore, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Chaklala Cantonment Boards while PTI got 8 seats in Wah and Taxila, while PML (N) got 4. In Kamra, PML (N) and PTI got 1 seat each. Okara (5) and Bahawalpur (3) cantonments had all independent members while in Multan independents got 5 out of 10 seats, PML (N) managed (3) and PTI (2). As the ruling party in the Punjab PML (N) will acquire allegiances of most independently elected members post-election in the Punjab. Emerging as the second largest vote getter in Punjab, PTI were not far behind PML (N). Barring something extraordinary, will this pattern could likely continue in the “first-post-the-past” system in the next general elections? PTI could have done better if not faction-ridden. To quote a senior PTI figure, “the greatest threat to PTI is from PTI itself.”
Easily gaining electoral victories in Karachi Faisal and Karachi Clifton, MQM ran up against opposition in Karachi Clifton where PTI got the maximum seats if not an outright majority. Overall MQM got 19 seats in the Cantonment LB elections in Sindh, easily beating PPP into second place in Hyderabad.
PML (N) won only stray seats in KPK, Balochistan and Sindh. Independents got 4 seats in Quetta versus 1 for PML (N). The large number of independent winners (27.5% of the seats) underscores widespread skepticism among the electorate about the political parties, PTI’s 24% of the seats was divided between KPK and Punjab with a few in Karachi. The very worst showing was of PPP which managed only seven seats (3.5%) countrywide, that too mostly in Sindh, being almost wiped out in Punjab, KPK and Balochistan. Asif Zardari stage-managed a large rally in Lyari to shore up the party morale. Previously a PPP stronghold, the PPP had to bus in supporters from all over interior Sindh in their “show of force”. Rumour has it fashion model Ayyan is threatening to write a book on miserable jail conditions, she ain’t seen nothing yet! Maybe “How to money-launder in one easy lesson” would sell better. Large rallies, as was witnessed in NA-246, may give a perception of but do not represent the real strength of parties, hardly making any impact on the polling booth. PPP leaders do not seem to realise the enormity of their political catastrophe, former PM Raja “Rental” Pervez Ashraf claimed after LB elections that PPP remains Pakistan’s “biggest national party,” talk about being delusional!
Not truly representative of the real leanings of the voters across the country, only the complete LB Elections in the Provinces will show the true picture. It does show those out of favour that they want to discard. Whoever holds the Punjab holds the reins of power in Pakistan. Unfortunately for the country (and us), KPK and Sindh do not seem to really matter to PML (N). Pakistan’s major problem as a Federation, no real national parties anymore!
